Saturday, March 15, 2008

Could we really run out of food? Where to invest in Ag

Could we really run out of food?

Biofuel production, poor harvests and emerging nations' growing appetites are emptying the world's pantry, sending prices soaring. It's a good time to invest in agricultural stocks.

By Jon Markman

March 06, 2008

As if a bear market, U.S. credit crunch, energy crisis and city financing emergency were not enough for one year, experts say the world is now facing down the barrel of the worst catastrophe of all: famine.

The very idea that the modern world could run out of food seems ludicrous, but that is the flip side, or cause, of the tremendous recent increase in the cost of raw wheat, corn, rice, oats and soybeans. Food prices are not escalating because speculators have run them up for sport and profit, but because accelerating demand in developing nations, biofuel production and poor harvests in some areas have made basic foodstuffs truly scarce.

In energy circles, folks who warn about the beginning of the end of cheap fossil fuels talk about "peak oil" as a point we have dangerously and expensively crossed. Likewise, you can now add "peak wheat" to your political and investment lexicon. And it's a lot worse.

Food fighting
One can always move closer to work to cut down on gasoline. But be forced to eat less toast, beer and steak? Them's fightin' words.

Wheat futures prices have tripled since 2004, corn prices have almost tripled since 2005, and soybeans have tripled since 2006. Meanwhile, crude oil is up merely 60% in the past three years, which makes it seem very bearable in comparison. U.S. stock prices have barely eked out a 10% advance since 2005, underscoring the diminishment of our buying power. A large pepperoni pizza these days costs about as much as a share of Citigroup (C.N). Citigroup finished Wednesday at $22.15.

This is no joke, already, in Asia. Rice prices surged to a 20-year high this week -- more than $18 per hundred pounds -- as countries that have the most are hoarding it for their own people. Vietnam, India and Egypt have restricted exports to keep local markets stocked. Thai, Philippine and Indonesian officials are warning of civil unrest if the flow of rice does not increase.

Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan in recent weeks have restricted wheat exports as well, slapping on big tariffs to make sure shelves are stocked in their homelands amid soaring prices. A major Russian grains-company chief told Reuters that his country "is in a condition that has never happened before." Higher prices are not meeting any resistance from desperate buyers.

Most unusual about this phenomenon, according to BMO Financial Group strategist Don Coxe, is that until now, food crises in world history were regional concerns that arose from crop failures, war or pests. Once global trade of grains got going in the 19th century in a major way, food shortages in one country were ameliorated by imports, he said. What's happening now is a lack of supply everywhere at once.

Talk back:
How are you keeping your grocery bills down?

Culprits abound, but chief among them is urbanization, which has cut the amount of acreage devoted to farming. The United Nations reports that the total area devoted to crops worldwide had risen by 0.3% annually since 1961, to 3.8 billion acres through the latest survey. But the growth has stalled to 0.1% annually in the past decade. Unlike energy, you can't drill deeper in the ocean or under Arctic tundra for more food.

Also, surging income growth among emerging middle classes in China, India, Southeast Asia and South America has boosted demand for meat protein, and feed for new Asian cattle ranches and pig farms is putting intense pressure on the world's corn supply. Of course, the weather plays a role, too. A terrible drought in the breadbasket of Australia over the past two years has combined with bad harvests in Argentina and Brazil to create some of today's shortfall.

Empty global cupboards
Shortages are real. The Financial Times reports that rice stocks have fallen this year to about 70 million tons, the lowest level in 25 years and less than half the total held in global inventories in 2000. Wheat inventories, called "carry-overs" in the trade, are at 30-year lows even though world wheat production was actually up 1% last year. In the past year, reports show, wheat inventories in the European Union have plunged to 1 million tons from 14 million tons.

A leading Canadian fertilizer executive told analysts recently that according to his company's calculations, global grain reserves are "precarious," at just 1.7 months of consumption, down from 3.5 months of reserves as recently as 2000.

Now the really bad news is that we might actually have been lucky in the past few years, as global warming has lengthened growing seasons in the American Plains, sometimes called the Saudi Arabia of corn. BMO's Coxe notes that the U.S. Midwest has enjoyed 17 straight years without significant crop failure, the longest winning streak on record. If this fortunate run ends soon, we'll likely face a worldwide crisis.

Some researchers, including climatologist Elwyn Taylor of Iowa State University, believe it could happen this year, as La Niña conditions are emerging at a time when the Midwest has become vulnerable due to a drought creeping up from the South.

Food prices are already way up in North America but not as much as feed prices because manufacturers, processors and retailers such as Wal-Mart Stores (WMT.N) have found ways to hold the line by cutting expenses. But they can dam up the flood of food inflation for only so long. Just this week, Procter & Gamble (PG.N) announced it was raising prices on many of its foods products, including Folgers coffee. J&J Snack Foods said it would lift prices by as much as 12% in April to offset costs, and local newspapers have been rife with stories about pizzerias both raising prices and cutting back on crust thickness and cheese quantities.

Joseph R. Dancy, who teaches law at Southern Methodist University and runs a small hedge fund, lays the immediacy of the crisis directly on ethanol-production mandates in an energy bill recently passed in the U.S. The bill, intended to boost America's energy independence, is expected to push as much as 31% of the U.S. corn crop into biofuels production, up from 24% last year. In other words, at the exact moment we most need corn on our plates, it is being funnelled into cars. A full tank of gas requires the equivalent of a quarter of a ton of raw foodstuffs, enough to feed one person bread for a year.

Coxe's solution: As a first step, shut down all ethanol plants immediately. "It's criminal to burn corn for fuel when we are out of food," he said. In a particularly pernicious development, he noted that a big boost in demand for soybeans for use as biodiesel in Europe has driven up the price of palm oil in Southeast Asia, where it is the main source of protein for the poor.

If global famine is one bad crop away, then surely there is an investment angle. On dips, the companies to focus on are mostly the same as I described in my year-opening column, "10 market predictions for a glum '08:" Seed innovators Monsanto (MON.N) and Syngenta (SYT.N); fertilizer makers Potash of Saskatchewan (POT.N), Mosaic (MOS.N), CF Industries (CF.N) and Agrium (AGU.N); tractor maker Deere (DE.N); and, for exposure to the food futures themselves, the exchange-traded funds PowerShares DB Agriculture (DBA.N), iPath AIG Agriculture (JJA.N) and iPath AIG Grains (JJG.N).

Some additional small caps to consider are equipment retailer Titan Machinery (TITN.O), irrigation-equipment maker Lindsay (LNN.N) and processing-machine maker Key Technology (KTEC.N).

I guess this gives a new meaning to the term "seed capital."

Fine print
Coxe has published a book summarizing his view of investment bubbles and declines called "The New Reality of Wall Street." . . . To learn more about law professor Dancy, visit his Web site. . . . To keep an eye on commodity futures prices, visit here or here. The Chicago Board of Trade has a great page summarizing the action. The U.S. Department of Agriculture Web site has pages and pages of material to help you get up to speed...

I previously wrote about ethanol as bad public policy on Feb. 10 in a blog item and on Oct. 11, 2007, in a column, "Shuck the ethanol and let solar shine."

At the time of publication, Jon Markman owned shares of Monsanto, Potash of Saskatchewan, Mosaic, CF Industries, Agrium, Lindsay, Powershares DB Agriculture, iPath AIG Agriculture and iPath AIG Grains.

Related stories:

http://finance.sympatico.msn.ca/Investing/JonMarkman/Article.aspx?cp-documentid=6424206

Thursday, March 13, 2008

How far can the dollar fall?

How far can the dollar go down?

Theoretically, the US Dollar can go to zero. While unlikely, it should be remembered that nearly every currency that has ever existed throughout history, eventually has a crash that destroys 90% of absolute value, or more.

Won't foreign Central Banks support the dollar?

Why should they? If you are hungry, and your 600 lb. neighbor (who is now so fat he can't even walk anymore he needs to use one of those little carts) missed a few meals, which happen to be 5x expensive as yours, would you finance his dessert? Of course not. You are thinking many things, but supporting his habit of overeating isn't one of them. The US consumes over 25% of the world's resources but produces less than 10%. Economists may not care for such a crude analogy, but the situation with the US Dollar is very, very simple, and should not be overcomplicated. The USD has been a reserve currency for the post WW2 world, but since Nixon abandon gold standard, the USD is backed by only the belief and faith in US Government. We are seeing a commodity boom, not because of a bubble in commodity asset prices, but because of a decline in the USD, the world's reserve currency in which many commodities (especially Oil and Gold) are priced. In any event, it's not likely that foreign central banks will bail out the dollar, because that would in effect make them eat a realized loss in their current account. Moderately wealthy nations cannot afford to take the loss of the US, the largest and wealthiest economy in the world. The US has been a financial big brother who have bailed out other failing economies – but the US has no big brother to lean on, except maybe Russia, although that wouldn't go over too well in Washington. So if the US Defaults, who can come to the rescue?

Gold is cheap

Adjusted for inflation, Gold should be above 1500 – without considering any boom. Many are wondering if commodities can continue to increase, without considering how depressed commodity prices were in the late 90's. An economy can live without services, or money, but people cannot decide not to eat or use Oil. Gold is money, the high price in Gold is reflective of investors concern about the value of money – any money. The US Dollar is a reserve currency so when USD goes down, so do many other currencies. The majority of USD holders are foreigners, but that is changing (in the past 10 years foreign USD holders have decreased from 77% to 62%).

What to do?

An argument of this nature should end in a 'what's next' or 'what you should do'. Unfortunately, this is a complex situation with no magic bullet solution. On a basic personal finances level, one should sell your mortgage at any price and become debt free with low cost of living. Don't bet on any economic upturn that will save your finances, things will only get worse. Second, do what you do well – no matter what the value of the dollar or the state of the economy, there will always be demand for goods and services (unless you happen to be in real-estate business, in which case you could start looking into farms.) The good news is that in any time of chaos, uncertainty, and reorganization, there are always massive opportunities. Taking advantage of them may not require huge amounts of capital. Knowledge of the situation can cause one to be 'in the right place at the right time' or at least not 'in the wrong place at the wrong time' – for example it would not be smart to be in south Florida amidst economic suffering which could lead to crime, rioting, overall fraud, and a depressed local economy.

Property surrounding small country towns has been doubling in 1 year! Farmland has increased by as much as 500% in some areas over the last few years. There are plentiful opportunities in this market, but they may not be the traditional opportunities that investors are accustomed to.

It's 2008

There is a new market thinking, accept it or not. We don't live in the 1970's, it's not 1970 it's 2008. In 1970 Russia was communist, now there are more billionaires in Moscow than in New York. In 1970 Oil had not yet peaked, there was no Internet, financial markets were not deregulated to the extent that they are now, there were no derivatives, no climate change, and no Oil hungry China. In 1970 Europe was scarcely organized, only 25 years of reconstruction post ww2, and there was no Euro.

Thinking Different

Therefore, the only way to survive in the New Investment Paradigm is to be nimble and stay ahead of the information curve. In any field, applied intelligence can earn a solid position and even great profits. Safe havens are no longer safe as they were, the bond market is getting destroyed by inflation, TIPS (inflation protected bonds) are trading negative for the first time ever, meaning you are betting inflation will be worse than the small loss you will take on the bonds.

A trader named Paulson made a record Wall Street profit on single trade, shorting SubPrime loans. Gold investors are happily sitting on 300%+ returns since 2002. Those holding US Dollar short positions have doubled their money in several years. CTA programs have achieved 70% - 150% in 2007, trading currencies, commodities, and futures. Anyone long Oil or Gasoline futures in the past months would have been very profitable.

Clearly, there are hundreds of opportunities but no clear 'magic bullet' solution that could be recommended, compared to 5 years ago when a US Dollar short or Long Gold portfolio could have been safely recommended. It is for this reason Elite E Services is launching a Global Opportunities Hedge Fund, which should be ready by late spring. If you are trading for yourself, take quick profits and don't hold any positions for the long term, and seek new opportunities. Keep in mind the opportunities may be biased toward the Short side than the long side, as DOW and NASDAQ components will be hit by a sinking dollar, sinking US Economy, and credit problems.

Elite E Services offers forex managed accounts www.fxv1.com , FX trading strategies www.startelite.com , and market intelligence www.eliteforexblog.com . 646-837-0059

US Dollar on the verge of crash

Gasoline station purchases, which so far had been boosted by record-high fuel prices, also tumbled 1%...... http://money.cnn.com/2008/03/13/news/economy/feb_retailsales/index.htm?postversion=2008031308

``Sentiment for the dollar continues to deteriorate very, very rapidly and if we're not careful this will turn into a dollar crash,'' said Mitul Kotecha, head of foreign-exchange research in London at Calyon, the securities unit of Credit Agricole SA, France's second-biggest bank. ``The risk is that we see a fairly aggressive move sharply lower towards 95 yen, and that could really perk up the interest of the Bank of Japan.''.. http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aQ3ZEkeI8x0g&refer=home

March 13 (Bloomberg) -- Want the inside skinny on Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's next moves as he battles to avert recession, bank bankruptcies and the collapse of capitalism?... http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601039&sid=a8R_nSQd9wKU&refer=home

"The Fed's actions are keeping banks from having to write down large losses and quite likely go into bankruptcy," he writes on his blog at the American Prospect. "The result is that the bank executives, whose inept management pushed them into bankruptcy, get to keep their jobs and their salaries, which run into the tens of millions a year." Meanwhile, homeowners facing foreclosure - not to mention ordinary savers who are watching inflation erode the value of their nest eggs - remain quite unbailed-out.

Simons says the whole mess points up the limitations of the Fed. "They're not crisis managers," he says. "There's no playbook for this." http://money.cnn.com/2008/03/12/markets/fedfollies.fortune/index.htm

"My wage tripled in two years!" boasts Barbara Wasik, a Polish graphic designer.

But the pay rise was not a result of moving to the UK, instead the money rolled-in when she came back home. ... http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7282923.stm

PAPER: Fed takes boldest action since the Depression to rescue mortgage industry...


Gold hits $1,000 record high...

'Magic is over' for USA, says foreign minister of France...

Riot police called to control crowd at housing authority in Boca Raton...

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/03/13/technology/13net.html?ei=5065&en=765ff5f673bfdfee&ex=1206072000&partner=MYWAY&pagewanted=print Video Road Hogs Stir Fear of Internet Traffic Jam In a widely cited report published last November, a research firm projected that user demand for the Internet could outpace network capacity by 2011.

Wednesday, March 12, 2008

Forex Bastards gets exposed as fraud

www.forexbastards.com was one of the highest ranked forex sites on the net for a long time.

THE OWNER OF FOREX BASTARDS & SECREAT FOREX SOCIETY [ FELONY ARREST MADE & FRAUD CHARGES FILED.
> >
There is an on going investigation into the activities of Dmitri Chavkerov Poster child of 21 century Internet fraud as you know or may not know he has been under investigation for a number of things for the last few years and charges have been placed against his criminal partner in a fraudulent scheme to defraud the people of the united states. Its people like this that have made the need for homeland security a must. We must all do our due diligence to detect fraudsters and terrorist. There are also numerous complaints by investors and a pending case of identity theft and transmission of personal banking information on a female victim. As well as black mail, slander and defamation. Its time to bring Mr. Dmitri Chavkerov to justice, arrest have already been made more are sure to follow if your company has been a victim of black mail, false slander or you have lost money from his services or products or feel he has caused you financial harm please contact www.ic3.gov or your report can be documented by the arresting agent [William James Cunningham ] Documentation of the current case can be found at: >>

http://www.ice.gov/pi/news/newsrelea...osangeles1.htm

Mr. dimitri has made headlines around the world for his cutting edge class of fraud. And is the first to be caught in this type of Online fraud. Based on current information he is pretending to be a trading expert but based on financial statements he has lost a large sum of money in trading the forex market and all of his current income is from fraudulent product sales. He scares people into not buying or trusting his competitor̢۪s products then thru his massive network of forex sites sell them his forex product. A scare then magic solution that many internet scammers / fraudsters use today. He hides behind other names and web-sites and shady people.

U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) was established in March 2003 as the largest investigative arm of the Department of Homeland Security. ICE is comprised of five integrated divisions that form a 21st century law enforcement agency with broad responsibilities for a number of key homeland security priorities.
http://www.ripoffreport.com/reports/0/305/RipOff0305422.htm

Dmitri Chavkerov has been busted by I.C.E Agents on 11/30/07 He is also not an American Citizen

United States District Court Documents

Below is the actual Governments complaint against Dmitri's girlfriend Yuliya M. Kalinina note in the interview she admits he is not a U.S citizen, and in his interview (pg-12) he admits he had knowledge of and willingly took part in this FRAUD against the United States Of America.

Also note that Dmitri is not the big shot Forex Mogul he tries to make everyone believe he is, he runs his little operation from the coffee table of his law breaking girlfriends apartment.

Official Criminal Complaint Documents (PDF) -
Case NO 07-1636M-1

Press Release-
Busted in Marina Del Rey, CA for Marriage Fraud

CNN VIDEO -
CNN Story On Just How Foolish They Were

L.A Times Story -
About Dmitri and Yuliya's Fraudulent Scheme

More info:

http://www.pipwizard.com/forexbastards

http://answers.yahoo.com/question/index?qid=20071228203505AAlJyT7

http://www.forexclown.com/polls/felix-homogratus.php

Tuesday, March 11, 2008

Fed Sells Dollars, EUR/USD down 200 pips

Fed to Lend $200 Billion, Take on Mortgage Securities (Update3) The Federal Reserve, struggling to contain a crisis of confidence in credit markets, plans to lend up to $200 billion in exchange for mortgage-backed securities.

New Tool

The Fed today set up a new tool, the Term Securities Lending Facility, to lend Treasuries to primary dealers for 28- day periods through weekly auctions. The Fed also said it's increasing the amount of dollars available to European central banks through swap lines.

The Federal Open Market Committee authorized increasing currency swap lines with the European Central Bank and Swiss National Bank to $30 billion and $6 billion, respectively, increasing the ECB's line by $10 billion and the Swiss line by $2 billion. The Fed extended the swaps through Sept. 30.

The ECB announced it will lend banks in Europe up to $15 billion for 28 days and the SNB announced a similar auction of up to $6 billion. The Bank of England will offer $20 billion of three-month loans on March 18 and hold another auction on April 15. The Bank of Canada announced plans to purchase $4 billion of securities for 28 days.

Treasuries slid after the announcement, with yields on 10- year notes rising to 3.60 percent at 10:32 a.m. in New York, from 3.46 percent late yesterday.

* 11 Mar 08: 14:42(LDN) - FX NOW! USD/JPY Flows - While equities retain gains, USD/JPY has room to move higher

USD/JPY traders are having some fun with the markets. Supported by the positive equity performance, dealers took prices up to challenge the offers seen earlier that stopped the rally around 103.20, where at least one Asian sovereign had been seen in the selling group. The offers were not there this time around and stops in the 103.25-30 range were tripped sending prices up to highs of 103.40. While equities are holding their gains, USD/JPY has more room on the upside. M.B.

* 11 Mar 08: 14:37(LDN) - FX NOW! EUR/USD Flows - more a buy opportunity than marking a top

We suspect that the run to 1.5495 on EUR/USD has proved 'near enough' to 1.5500 for a good many longs. However, while the US trade gap was better than expected, we suspect that the real US dollar policy is that it will get better yet if the USD weakens some more. Add that to ECB intransigence on interest rates, chances that the Fed will still cut by 75bps next week, more signs of peg-related unrest in the Middle East and ongoing reserve diversification (especially if the M.East story gets to take off), then we doubt that we have seen the EUR/USD high yet. PB

* 11 Mar 08: 13:26(LDN) - FX NOW! USD/JPY, EUR/JPY Flows - Asian sovereigns seen in group offering USD/JPY, stops near

USD/JPY has run into offers, rumored to include Asian sovereigns at the highs of 103.20. It is worth noting that the offers are in front of stops that are resting in the 103.25-30 range. While JPY has dropped vs USD reflecting the advanced in equities that has been sustained, with S&P futures still up 28 points at 1304, JPY is still slipping modestly vs EUR that has been moving higher ever since the stronger than expected ZEW was released this morning. M.B.

* 11 Mar 08: 13:03(LDN) - FX NOW! EUR/USD, EUR/JPY Flows - Central Bank liquidity efforts

Somewhat of a relief rally for the USD and equities on what has essentially been a signal from the major central banks. But signal it is, and a signal that might well discourage (for a while) what have become widespread expectations for another 75bps of cuts on March 18. In the meantime, the biggest USD move has been versus the JPY - which fits with the reverse flows previously seen with USD/JPY moving in lockstep with major equity indices. This has left EUR/JPY higher - a move which has restricted the pullback on EUR/USD to the 1.5350 area. C.F.


 

Sunday, March 9, 2008

EES FXV1 Managed Account Update

FXV1 update

The FXV1 program has undergone a major, material change that will affect our AUM, DDOC, and the setup of the account. We have closed several accounts under the old program and will re-open under the new structure. The reason for this change is due to brokerage issues and technical issues, which caused unnecessary loss of opportunity. While our system had been performing well, the good results simply weren't translated to accounts. No client accounts were adversely affected by this issue, only EES corporate account. Under the new structure, all issues should be solved and we can return to our aggressive growth, but this time with limited risk as we have developed a Dynamic Risk Strategy (DRS).  www.dynamicriskstrategy.com

Tech Changes

FXV1 will no longer use TradeRobot automation technology, we will use Meta Trader platform to execute our blended systems. Elite E Services will develop our own proprietary signal aggregation software which will replace MT once it is ready, approximately in 8 months time. This technology will be a 'signal server' that will be our own Strategy Runner style 'system selector' that can be linked up to any brokerage. When this is available, FXV1 will be available at ANY brokerage, in the meantime, it will be available at any broker that uses Meta Trader platform. Any broker who wants to use the FXV1 program and does not have MT platform, can pay a development fee of $15,000 to connect FXV1 to their API, which can be repaid once fees begin to be generated.

Brokerage Changes

FXV1 will now trade with Meta Trader on major FX brokers, such as Gain Capital, ODL Securities, FX Solutions, FXCM, and any other MT broker. We welcome opportunities from IB's who want to raise money for FXV1. The initial minimum to setup FXV1 at a new brokerage is $100,000 – but once a master account is established at the new brokerage, the individual client minimum can be as low as $1,000. FXV1 will charge only performance fees, and will give rebates to any participating IBs. This is a fair 25% of the profit performance based model. NO OTHER FEES.

Return Targeting

We will structure the program to achieve 1% per week, which could be greater than 50% per year.

Account Protection

Our new system will include drawdown protection, in the event of a catastrophic market move or other technical problem, the account cannot drop below 5%.

These changes will be reflected in our DDOC soon. Please visit www.fxv1.com for more information.

Liquidity Issues

The 28-day repurchase agreements will allow primary dealers (banks and broker dealers that trade directly with the Fed) to borrow against all and any class of securities, including the agency-backed mortgages being shunned by many private-sector institutions.

The effect of the Fed's measures is to supply banks and financial institutions with the liquid funds that they can't currently obtain on the commercial markets. ..... http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters/robertpeston/

U.S. Unexpectedly Lost 63,000 Jobs in February

Tons of food aid rotting in Haiti ports

Already we have riots, hoarding, panic: the sign of things to come?


 

Las Vegas gambling revenues are falling for the first time since 2001, adding to the evidence that the US economy is on a losing streak.

The city has been on a roll for seven years, fuelled by increased tourism and domestic spending, with visitors flocking to the new generation of resort casinos that have sprung up along the Las Vegas Strip.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/350507fc-ec7e-11dc-86be-0000779fd2ac,Authorised=false.html?_i_location=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ft.com%2Fcms%2Fs%2F0%2F350507fc-ec7e-11dc-86be-0000779fd2ac.html%3Fnclick_check%3D1&_i_referer=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.urbansurvival.com%2Fweek.htm&nclick_check=1


 

http://www.gcnlive.com/NewsStory/Gold.html U.S. central banks may have less than half the gold they claim to possess in their vaults, charges a watchdog group in an ad scheduled for publication in the Wall Street Journal this week.

Friday, March 7, 2008

Fed pumps more liquidity while Congress grills CEOs

The Federal Reserve moved to add as much as $200 billion to the banking system over the next month !!!!!!!! http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=abqaRvWOHeFc&refer=home

http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/08_11/b4075000870869.htm?chan=rss_topStories_ssi_5 Hedge Funds Frozen Shut

To buy time and stave off losses, more funds are blocking withdrawals. Are they just postponing the inevitable?

http://money.cnn.com/2008/03/07/news/newsmakers/ceo_pay/index.htm?cnn=yes

High-profile ex-banking CEOs fire back following attacks on packages, telling lawmakers that figures were exaggerated by the media.

Thursday, March 6, 2008

Trade Idea: Long Coffee, War in Columbia?

EES Trade Logic

Coffee will continue to be consumed regardless of market price. The average New Yorker spends $6 USD per day on coffee. Unstable political situation in Columbia can cause coffee price to temporarily skyrocket on the world market. Conflict is not imminent, but Venezuela is moving troops to the border. A freeze on Columbian coffee is enough to cause the price to explode. Here is our research:

http://www.researchwikis.com/Coffee_Market_Research


Background

Coffee is produced from roasted seeds or beans and is a widely consumed beverage. Coffee consumption of coffee was recorded in 9th century Ethiopia and spread from there through Africa to Egypt and then to Italy, from there being introduced to the rest of Europe.

Coffee beans are picked, processed, and dried. The major producing countries are in Asia, Africa and Latin America. Coffee seeds are roasted at a temperature of about 200 °C, allowing the sugars in the beans to caramelize. The bean changes color and flavor is drawn out. Next, the beans are roasted to a light, medium, or dark brown color depending on the desired flavor. After roasting, beans are ground and brewed in order to create the beverage coffee.

Effects on human health are continually debated. Some studies indicate that coffee may reduce the risk of certain diseases but a negative side effect, an increase of stress, due to excessive intake, is also noted.

Market Structure

Coffee is one of the most heavily traded commodities in the world and ranks sixth by value in the world. In 2000, the coffee trade was worth US $33 billion. Coffee demand dropped in 2001 to 2003, with growth falling to 1%. Small and medium sized producers suffered the most from this drop, while the growth in retail sales mitigated the effect on coffee retailers.
When prices of green coffee rise, producers make profits while the retailers lose margins. Conversely, when green coffee is relatively cheap, the distributors and retailers earn higher profits. Rarely do the large players financially integrate the two operations, that of production and retailing. There have been periodic attempts to regulate and better control the coffee trade but trade arrangements consistently fail and the trade is currently subject to market forces.
Commercially, two types of coffee banes are in highest demand - Coffee Arabica and Coffee Robusta, the latter of which has seen strong growth due to increase in instant coffee sales. Brazil and Vietnam are world's largest producers of robusta coffee.

Industry Definitions

Drip coffee: 115–175 mg

Espresso: 100 mg

Brewed: 80–135 mg

Instant: 65–100 mg

Decaf, brewed: 3–4 mg

Decaf, instant: 2–3 mg

Market Metrics

United States Exports and Imports

Total US imports for the 4th quarter 2006 totaled 5.773 million bags, down 7.4% from the 3rd quarter's 6.232 million bags. Compared with last year same quarter, US imports were up by 2.1% from 5.653 million bags.
Average retail prices in the 3rd quarter 2006 decreased by nearly one percent over the third quarter, decreasing to $3.14 per pound from $3.17. Compared to the year-ago period, prices were down by 19 cents or 5.7%. The United States consumes one-fifth of all the world's coffee, making it the world's largest consuming country.
World Market

The US Department of Agriculture's December estimate for 2006-007 was that world coffee production had increased to 128.6 million bags, up 4.9 million bags from its June 2006 estimate. Production in 2006-07 was estimated at 13% above the 2004-05 period.
World coffee exports totaled 7.75 million bags in July 2007, an increase of 1% compared with the volume of 7.67 million bags recorded in July last year. Total exports in the first 10 months of coffee year 2006-07 (Oct-06 to Jul-07) were up by 13.3% from the same period last year, totaling 81.52 million bags compared to 71.94 million bags in the prior year.
Total annual production of coffee was estimated at approximately 6.8 million tons in 2007. It is usually sold in bags of 60 kilograms.

The top global producers of coffee are as follows:


 

Country                   Annual Production


 

Brazil                35 million bags

Columbia            11 million bags

Vietnam                     11 million bags

Ethiopia            4.5 million bags


There are several other key producing countries. The following countries each produce more than 2 million bags annually:


Colombia, traditionally, the second largest coffee exporter, slipped to second place in the early 2000s behind Vietnam. This country, a relative newcomer to the world coffee market, dramatically boosted production through the 1990s and by the early 2000s had overtaken Colombia.

But you can see from the following chart how the top 3 dominate everyone:


Industry Players

The market leader in coffee production with Nescafe as its flagship product. The company's chief markets are the United States, France, Germany, Brazil, the United Kingdom, Italy, and Japan. Popular coffee brands include Nescafé, Taster's Choice, Ricoré, and Ricoffy. Roasted and ground coffee brands include Nespresso, Bonka, Zogas, and Loumidis.

Philip Morris spun off Kraft Foods, one of the world's largest coffee producers, in June 2001, while retaining 84 percent ownership. Philip Morris first entered the coffee market by purchasing the world's largest coffee roaster, General Foods Corporation, in 1985. Kraft Foods' coffee brands in the United States included General Foods International Coffees, Gevalia, Maxim, Maxwell House, Sanka, Starbucks (under a licensing agreement), and Yuban. Its international brands included Carte Noire, Gevalia, Grand' Mère, Kaffee HAG, Jacobs Krönung, Jacobs Milea, Jacobs Monarch, Jacques Vabre, Saimaza, Kenco, Maxwell House and others.

Formerly Sara Lee Coffee & Tea Worldwide, a business segment of Sara Lee. Caters to both the retail and the foodservice sectors around the world. Sara Lee's European coffee brand is Douwe Egberts and its South American brands are Caboclo, Cafe do Ponto, and Pilao. Its SENSEO coffee pod system, sold throughout Europe and in the United States, brews single servings of frothy-style coffee.

Trends and Recent Developments

Coffee prices in mid 2007 have slumped 15% from their recent peak in late 2006. Not surprisingly, retail coffee companies have not been passing along the savings to consumers.


http://www.researchwikis.com/Coffee_Market_Research


 


http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/CF/38

http://youtube.com/watch?v=MMXRjF7ERHQ Comerciales viejos Juan Valdez. Juan Valdez' Old Commercials

Summary: Venezuela is moving troops to the border with Colombia after a Colombian raid across the Ecuadorian border targeting Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia camps. Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez needs something to increase his stature at home, and a wave of anti-Colombianism in Venezuela could serve that purpose. However, Chavez cannot afford to turn this into a real fight.

http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/venezuela_chavezs_calculations_colombia

Ecuador, Venezuela, Colombia in war of words
CTV.ca, Canada - Mar 3, 2008
FARC has been in a state of civil war with Columbia since the 1960s. Both Canada and the United States consider it to be a terrorist organization that is ..

Wealthy Moving to Hedge Funds, NY no longer #1 for billionaires

Wealthy 'moving to hedge funds'

Largest denominations - £100 dollar bill and £50 note

The world's wealthiest want more stable returns, the study finds

The world's wealthiest private investors are planning to put more money into alternative investments over the next three years, a report says. http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7059631.stm

http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=080306001953.xvguehx7&show_article=1 Moscow: new world capital for billionaires

Forex Trading Channel #20


Gabcast! Forex Trading Channel #20

Wednesday, March 5, 2008

Oil Shakeup

Is Your Gift Card Suddenly Worthless?

OPEC set to snub Bush call for extra crude oil

UK banks write off record £6.8bn in household debt

Gulf investors may not save Citigroup, Dubai executive says

Hard times are on the menu at restaurants

US auto sales fall amid economic woes

Boom times for 'gently used' clothes

OPEC unlikely to raise output

U.S. Stocks Fall on Bernanke Plan, Oil's Retreat; Banks Decline U.S. stocks fell, led by financial and commodity shares, after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke urged banks to forgive more late loans and oil, gold and copper prices dropped from records.

Bernanke Urges Banks to Forgive Portion of Mortgages (Update6) Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke, battling the worst housing recession in a quarter century, urged lenders to forgive portions of mortgages held by homeowners at risk of defaulting.

There's a headline this morning that the government's "Loans program for coal plants suspended" which goes to the idea that because of global warming and tons of uncertainty, new technology coal plant development should be suspended.  This, after a lot of states including in our backyard here in East Texas, were out fighting tooth and nail to get nods for new coal-fired plants.

---

Curiously, the price of oil has not yet reacted, although it certainly seems possible.  Although oil took a dip on Monday, there's an OPEC meeting today which could see output held steady which wouldn't help the US economy any.  The US is pushing for higher production quotas in order to contain prices.

---

Meanwhile, the US has decided to back Colombia (read: no oil) over Venezuela (Read: Oil out of strict corpgov control) in the recently warming border skirmishes.

---

In the Middle East, stress is building because Syria is floating a proposal for a transitional government to lead to early parliamentary elections.  And in Iraq, the Oil Ministry has been given the green light to sell oil to key Western corporate customers.


 


 

Monday, March 3, 2008

Credit Crisis deepens

March 3 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. states and local governments may extend the worst slump in municipal bonds on record as they replace as much as $166 billion of auction-rate securities.

California, Boston's biggest hospital and Duke Energy Corp. are converting their bonds to other types of tax-exempt debt after auction failures drove rates as high as 20 percent. The potential supply equals almost 40 percent of the municipal securities sold last year, overwhelming a market that tumbled 4.9 percent last month, according to indexes maintained by Merrill Lynch & Co., which began compiling market data in 1989.

``When you've got many issuers representing hundreds of billions of dollars trying to restructure their bonds all at once, there's obviously a glut,'' said Paul Rosenstiel, California's deputy treasurer. ``It doesn't make for any easy solutions.''

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601010&sid=aJpRkYBhnffQ&refer=news

PAPER: Federal Reserve's rescue has failed...

Buffett: USA Essentially in Recession...

Grim News in Arizona State Budget and Sacramento City Budget

Buffett defends sovereign funds

Economic Armageddon

Iran shifts oil sales away from dollar


 

Saturday, March 1, 2008

Sovereign Wealth Funds and Soaring commodities as Subprime Defaults spread to other markets

Oil money is coming - and there is little the west can do about it

A study by one of the biggest banks, HSBC, noted: "The owners of emerging SWFs look unlikely just to roll over. They are enjoying the boot being on the other foot after an awfully long time. The train wreck that was the 1990s, when they had to go cap-in-hand to the developed world, was bad enough.

"Going back further, western jibes about state capitalism would, perhaps, have more power had they themselves not ruled many of these countries for years via state-licensed companies."

Gerard Lyons, chief economist at Standard Chartered, said: "Sovereign wealth funds have existed since 1953 and are here to stay. Their size and influence is set to grow. Already valued at $2.2tn, on current trends they could reach $13.4tn in a decade.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2008/mar/01/oil.globaleconomy1

Soaring cost of gold causes jewellery market pandemonium

By Ellen Kelleher

Published: March 1 2008 02:00 | Last updated: March 1 2008 02:00

The soaring cost of gold and platinum is causing pandemonium in the UK's jewellery market as retailers and private owners rush to reappraise the value of necklaces, brooches and rings.

Jewellers in London's Hatton Garden - the capital's jewellery quarter - are raising the price of wedding bands on a weekly basis, with less-expensive palladium rings now coming into vogue. And insurers are urging clients to get another assessment of the value of their jewellery collections in response to the rapid rise in the price of precious metals, sparked by investors seeking refuge from volatile stocks.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0b05b67c-e733-11dc-b5c3-0000779fd2ac,Authorised=false.html?_i_location=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ft.com%2Fcms%2Fs%2F0%2F0b05b67c-e733-11dc-b5c3-0000779fd2ac.html1&_i_referer=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.drudgereport.com%2F

Other articles

February 29, 2008

MF Global: Trader Evan B. Dooley made unauthorized trades in Chicago wheat futures from Memphis office

Iraq war 'caused slowdown in the US'

AIG Hammered By Credit Crunch

Merrill to shut down subprime lending unit

More writedowns seen after CIBC's C$1.46 bln loss

Dollar Plumbs To New Lows

Stocks Decline Amid Economic Worries

February 28, 2008

California City Moves Closer to Bankruptcy Filing

Stocks Drop on Jobs Data, Bank Worries

Scarce Shoppers Sap Sears 4Q Profit

U.S. new-home sales drop to lowest level in nearly 13 years

Honda ending production of motorcycles in U.S.

Economy Slows to Near Crawl

Olduvai revisited 2008