GREENSPAN: FINANCIAL MESS WORST SINCE WWII...
Wall Street waits for next domino to fall...
FED GIVES ANOTHER QUARTER...
PAPER: Foreign investors veto Fed rescue...
The Dollar Doomsayers...
INTERVENTION?
Euro, Gold Hit New Records...
Bush: 'We're in Challenging Times'...
3-month bill yield seen lowest in 50 years...
Monday, March 17, 2008
The New Depression
USD hits all time lows – Market uneasy – USD/CHF down 5%
Mon Mar 17 11:17:00 2008(EST)
* 17 Mar 08: 16:16(LDN) - FX NOW! GBP/USD, GBP/JPY Flows - USD is having a bad day, but GBP is suffering even more
GBP has been one of the day's poorest performers and there is no sign things are changing. It appears that at, or around, the afternoon fixing GBP was for sale and bids are no easier to find now than they were earlier today. The odds are that it took very modest size to push GBP lower and the parallel decline in USD vs the other majors did not help. USD has come under pressure from the downward turn in equities. M.B.
* 17 Mar 08: 15:59(LDN) - FX NOW! EUR/USD, EUR/GBP Flows - USD gets momentary support from rumor re: strong USD policy
FX and general market rumour mill has calmed down significantly since the N. American market has opened for business. Price action has calmed down with the reality hitting the market that dealers are shy of taking any risk, with Tue's Fed meeting the focus and event risk liable at any second. Newswire reports, supposedly "sourced" have given USD a momentary bid with the suggestion that the ECB was going to try to apply pressure on the US to back up its "strong USD policy". The "sourced" story and the thought of the US responding to this type of pressure has proved to lack the power to turn USD's general trend for more than the time it takes to think about it seriously. M.B.
* 17 Mar 08: 14:42(NYC) - FX NOW! EUR/USD, 1m vols flows - vols squeezed higher
FX implied vols are up from what we already pointed out as 'verbal intervention' levels last week, with USD/JPY 1m vols highest since 1998 and EUR/USD 1m highest since 2001, and only a couple of vols off the last G7 intervention levels in 2000. The G7 has not exactly been successful in generating a coherent message on FX beyond saying that excessive volatility is undesirable, with the US in particular finding few reasons to get concerned with the weak dollar. This could be changing however, if the latest USD rout turns into a wider and more systematic crisis of confidence in US assets. VS
* 17 Mar 08: 13:49(LDN) - FX NOW! EUR/USD, USD/JPY Flows - USD, pre-Pres Bush rally stalls while his comments hit wire
It seems the rumor mills have stopped working overtime. The main phobias have been covered to include intervention, cutting lines, hedge fund rumors, earnings rumors and unilateral as well as coordinated rate cuts by central banks. In advance of Pres Bush's comments, USD ticked up as dealers and speculators that have been involved, chose to lock in any gains sitting on their books. Pres Bush, after his morning briefing, has supported the Fed action and claimed to have taken "strong and decisive" action. Despite the weekend events and poor earnings reports, Pres Bush says that US financial institutions are "strong". The pre-Bush USD rally has stalled while newswires release his statement. M.B.
3:35 PMMARGINS: Due to the recent turmoil in the financial markets, we has decided to increase margin requirements on CFDs of companies in the financial sector to 50%. (Primarily within diversified banks). We will commence rerating these on a rolling basis during the next 24 hours.
3:35 PMMARGINS continued: The roll out schedule for increased CFD margin on financials: 17 March-2008: European traded instruments was rolled out @ 15:30 CET/14:30 GMT, US traded instruments is being rolled out starting @ 16:30 CET/15:30 GMT, and on 18 March-2008: Asia Pacific traded instruments starting @ 03:00 CET/02:00 GMT.
3:38 PMRe Equity Trade Recommendation: We Sold DAX.I at 6255, Target 6220. Having seen support found at 6225, we choose to close this position at 6235, as support is currently being found just below that level.
3:43 PMAccording to Bloomberg, a source from the ECB tells MNI that ECB officials will express concern about the strength of the EUR (i.e. verbal intervention)...
Swiss energy giant EGL is set to sign a 25-year deal in Teheran on Monday to buy 5.5 billion cubic meters of Iranian natural gas per year, starting in 2011, for a reported €18 billion.
The contract will be the second largest European gas deal, although EGL spokesman Bogdan Preda told The Jerusalem Post, "We are not releasing the value of the deal." ... http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1205420703987&pagename=JPost/JPArticle/ShowFull
Fed Cuts Discount Rate, Lends More to Avert Meltdown (Update4) The Federal Reserve, struggling to prevent a meltdown in financial markets, cut the rate on direct loans to banks and became lender of last resort to the biggest dealers in U.S. government bonds.
JPMorgan Agrees to Buy Bear Stearns for $240 Million (Update2) JPMorgan Chase & Co. agreed to buy Bear Stearns Cos. for $240 million, about 90 percent less than its value last week, after a run on the company ended 85 years of independence for Wall Street's fifth-largest securities firm.
Bear's Schwartz Fought Failure as Cayne Played Bridge (Update1) Alan Schwartz wasn't supposed to be running Bear Stearns Cos., and now he is presiding over the 85- year-old securities firm's sale.
Lehman's Fuld Says Liquidity Concern `Off the Table' (Update2) Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. Chief Executive Officer Richard Fuld said the Federal Reserve's move to provide funding to brokers should alleviate investor concern that Wall Street firms may face cash shortages.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/682b8db0-f0a0-11dc-ba7c-0000779fd2ac.html
IMF tells states to plan for the worst
Sunday, March 16, 2008
Bear Bailout
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120569598608739825.html?mod=hpp_us_inside_today Meanwhile, worries are deepening that other securities firms and commercial banks might be on shaky ground. Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. Chief Executive Richard Fuld, concerned about the markets and possible fallout from Bear Stearns's troubles, cut short a trip to India and returned home Sunday, ahead of schedule, according to people familiar with the matter. The decision came after a series of calls Saturday to both senior executives at the firm and Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, these people say.
Bear Stearns is the big name in financial distress right now, but it could have company soon -- thanks in part to the aftershocks of its own problems.
Bear, under new owner J.P. Morgan Chase, will be under pressure to drastically shrink its balance sheet, which stood at $395 billion in November. Hasty asset sales at Bear could do further damage to prices in many different markets. There also could be knock-on effects in the already strained $50 trillion credit-default-swap market, where Bear is a big player. It could be harder than usual for firms that have engaged in trades with Bear to unwind them.
Then there are the less-direct effects. The prospect of a hanging concentrates the mind and, after Bear's near-failure, brokers and banks will be more intent on cutting borrowing levels even if they have to take losses. Despite the Federal Reserve's move to save Bear last week, the brokerage house's cash-flow crisis will intensify banks' current reluctance to lend to other financial institutions. The borrowing costs of some of Bear's rivals, as implied by CDS prices, increased sharply Friday, and some bank stocks took a hammering.
Meanwhile, Wall Street will take another $50 billion or so of write-downs in the first quarter, according to a Bear analyst. The troubled brokerage house was scheduled to kick off the Wall Street earnings season today, with others to follow this week. There could be more bad quarters to come, with U.S. house prices still falling and defaults on other types of consumer debt starting to rise.
The authorities will try to prevent a vicious cycle taking hold. On top of Fed measures to pump cash into the system, traders expect a full percentage point cut in the fed-funds overnight interest rate this week.
But low rates won't help firms on the financial brink much in the short term. The Fed's willingness to engineer the rescue of Bear makes a broader, taxpayer-funded financial bailout seem more likely. Combined with superlow rates, that perception will add to pressure on the already beleaguered dollar. Bear Stearns is the biggest financial firm to hit the wall this time around. But the biggest name in financial distress could eventually be the U.S.
Beijing Backs Away From Bear
GREENSPAN: FINANCIAL MESS WORST SINCE WWII...
Wall Street waits for next domino to fall...
FED GIVES ANOTHER QUARTER...
The Dollar Doomsayers...
Euro, Gold Hit New Records...
0336 GMT [Dow Jones] JP Morgan buyout of Bear Stearns, Fed liquidity actions are "bad news for risky assets and the U.S. dollar," says Barclays Capital. "The Fed likely got its first look at Bear Stearns' balance sheet over the weekend and today's action at the discount window demonstrates their concern. The Fed's action (though) has failed to ease credit concerns...iTRAXX spreads in Japan and Australia have started to rise as the counterparty risk on banks has been increased." Also, has been substantial destruction of wealth; Bear Stearns' shares were trading at $30 on Friday and $100 in December 2007. That is all bad for USD: Financial sector problems in U.S. continue to get grow and force market to price in greater chances of Fed cuts; in meantime, is little sign from economic data in rest of world that U.S.' problems are dragging on global growth, though this should change in coming months. "We expect this week to be a tough one for the equity markets and risky assets and for the swiss franc and yen to continue to outperform amongst the G10 currencies and" AUD, NZD to underperform.(RXM)
http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/Dogged-by-a-shadow-CT5BM?OpenDocument The key to the rescue appears to be not the $US2 a share that JP Morgan will pay for the investment bank, whose shares were trading at $US30 last week, but the willingness of the Federal Reserve Board to fund $US30 billion of Bear Stearns "less liquid" assets – inevitably its sub-prime exposures, which enabled JP Morgan to guarantee its former rival's counterparty risks.
Bear leads us into Depression – Traders worry about this week
Word began to spread among fixed-income traders nine days ago that European banks had stopped trading with Bear. Some U.S. fixed-income and stock traders began doing the same on Monday, pulling their cash from Bear for fear it could get locked up if there was a bankruptcy... http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120567392987839629.html?mod=googlenews_wsj
The developer of the Cosmopolitan Resort Casino, a $3.9 billion condo-hotel complex on the Las Vegas Strip, has been notified by its primary lender that it will begin foreclosure proceedings.
The move by Deutsche Bank AG, the lender on a $760 million senior loan, comes after the developer, Ian Bruce Eichner, wasn't able to finalize a deal for new financing amid the credit crunch. Mr. Eichner in late February cut a tentative deal with two of his other lenders, Global Hyatt Corp. and New York hedge fund Marathon Asset Management, for a possible rescue of the twin-tower project. A default ... http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120554452781938671.html?mod=googlenews_wsj
One UK economist warned that the world is now close to a 1930s-like Great Depression, while New York traders said they had never experienced such fear. The Fed's emergency funding procedure was first used in the Depression and has rarely been used since.
A Goldman Sachs trader in New York said: "Everyone is in a total state of shock, aghast at what is happening. No one wants to talk, let alone deal; we're just standing by waiting. Everyone is nervous about what is going to emerge when trading starts tomorrow."... http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/wall-street-fears-for-next-great-depression-796428.html
Can there be USD Intervention?
# Bloomberg: Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley say coordinated action by policy makers to stem US dollar slide increasingly likely
# March 2008: Europe and Japan express concern over sliding dollar - may intervene
# CIBC: Intervention unlikely until USD/JPY moves below 100 and EUR/USD moves to $1.60
# MS: Intervention more likely if EUR/USD surpasses 1.50, USD/JPY nears 100; MoF may have conducted stealth interventions or bought EUR/USD in Q407
# SG: Official intervention in support of the dollar likely to materialize in the event of a sharp (and disorderly) move in USD or sharp and broad-based deterioration in growth outside US
# Econocator (not online): 30% chance of intervention by BoJ, RBA, RBNZ on a rapid unwind of carry trade
# Feldstein: Europe must focus on dollar peggers (asia, oil exporters) to halt EUR/USD appreciation
# Whereas Australia, New Zealand intervened to slow appreciation in 2007, subprime turmoil later had Australia intervene to slow depreciation in August
# In 2007, New Zealand switched to unhedged FX reserves to improve tool for 'moderating extremes in NZD
Saturday, March 15, 2008
Black Bear Meltdown
Bear Sterns Drowning In Toxic Sub-Prime Debt
UK Billionaire Loses $800M In Bear Stearns Collapse
Bush Calls PPT Meeting On Monday
'Derivatives' - Government Economy Con-Game
Gold Hits New Record On Bear Stearns, Dollar
Roberts - Watching The Dollar Die
Morgan Funds Sent To Rescue Bear Stearns
Goldman Sees $175 Oil, 'Explosive' Commodities
JP Morgan, Fed Move To Save Bear Sterns
37 Big Financial Firms Sued - Fraud, Bid-Rigging
Dollar's Clout Sinks Worldwide
Could we really run out of food? Where to invest in Ag
Could we really run out of food?
Biofuel production, poor harvests and emerging nations' growing appetites are emptying the world's pantry, sending prices soaring. It's a good time to invest in agricultural stocks.
By Jon Markman
March 06, 2008
As if a bear market, U.S. credit crunch, energy crisis and city financing emergency were not enough for one year, experts say the world is now facing down the barrel of the worst catastrophe of all: famine.
The very idea that the modern world could run out of food seems ludicrous, but that is the flip side, or cause, of the tremendous recent increase in the cost of raw wheat, corn, rice, oats and soybeans. Food prices are not escalating because speculators have run them up for sport and profit, but because accelerating demand in developing nations, biofuel production and poor harvests in some areas have made basic foodstuffs truly scarce.
In energy circles, folks who warn about the beginning of the end of cheap fossil fuels talk about "peak oil" as a point we have dangerously and expensively crossed. Likewise, you can now add "peak wheat" to your political and investment lexicon. And it's a lot worse.
Food fighting
One can always move closer to work to cut down on gasoline. But be forced to eat less toast, beer and steak? Them's fightin' words.
Wheat futures prices have tripled since 2004, corn prices have almost tripled since 2005, and soybeans have tripled since 2006. Meanwhile, crude oil is up merely 60% in the past three years, which makes it seem very bearable in comparison. U.S. stock prices have barely eked out a 10% advance since 2005, underscoring the diminishment of our buying power. A large pepperoni pizza these days costs about as much as a share of Citigroup (C.N). Citigroup finished Wednesday at $22.15.
This is no joke, already, in Asia. Rice prices surged to a 20-year high this week -- more than $18 per hundred pounds -- as countries that have the most are hoarding it for their own people. Vietnam, India and Egypt have restricted exports to keep local markets stocked. Thai, Philippine and Indonesian officials are warning of civil unrest if the flow of rice does not increase.
Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan in recent weeks have restricted wheat exports as well, slapping on big tariffs to make sure shelves are stocked in their homelands amid soaring prices. A major Russian grains-company chief told Reuters that his country "is in a condition that has never happened before." Higher prices are not meeting any resistance from desperate buyers.
Most unusual about this phenomenon, according to BMO Financial Group strategist Don Coxe, is that until now, food crises in world history were regional concerns that arose from crop failures, war or pests. Once global trade of grains got going in the 19th century in a major way, food shortages in one country were ameliorated by imports, he said. What's happening now is a lack of supply everywhere at once.
Talk back:
How are you keeping your grocery bills down?
Culprits abound, but chief among them is urbanization, which has cut the amount of acreage devoted to farming. The United Nations reports that the total area devoted to crops worldwide had risen by 0.3% annually since 1961, to 3.8 billion acres through the latest survey. But the growth has stalled to 0.1% annually in the past decade. Unlike energy, you can't drill deeper in the ocean or under Arctic tundra for more food.
Also, surging income growth among emerging middle classes in China, India, Southeast Asia and South America has boosted demand for meat protein, and feed for new Asian cattle ranches and pig farms is putting intense pressure on the world's corn supply. Of course, the weather plays a role, too. A terrible drought in the breadbasket of Australia over the past two years has combined with bad harvests in Argentina and Brazil to create some of today's shortfall.
Empty global cupboards
Shortages are real. The Financial Times reports that rice stocks have fallen this year to about 70 million tons, the lowest level in 25 years and less than half the total held in global inventories in 2000. Wheat inventories, called "carry-overs" in the trade, are at 30-year lows even though world wheat production was actually up 1% last year. In the past year, reports show, wheat inventories in the European Union have plunged to 1 million tons from 14 million tons.
A leading Canadian fertilizer executive told analysts recently that according to his company's calculations, global grain reserves are "precarious," at just 1.7 months of consumption, down from 3.5 months of reserves as recently as 2000.
Now the really bad news is that we might actually have been lucky in the past few years, as global warming has lengthened growing seasons in the American Plains, sometimes called the Saudi Arabia of corn. BMO's Coxe notes that the U.S. Midwest has enjoyed 17 straight years without significant crop failure, the longest winning streak on record. If this fortunate run ends soon, we'll likely face a worldwide crisis.
Some researchers, including climatologist Elwyn Taylor of Iowa State University, believe it could happen this year, as La Niña conditions are emerging at a time when the Midwest has become vulnerable due to a drought creeping up from the South.
Food prices are already way up in North America but not as much as feed prices because manufacturers, processors and retailers such as Wal-Mart Stores (WMT.N) have found ways to hold the line by cutting expenses. But they can dam up the flood of food inflation for only so long. Just this week, Procter & Gamble (PG.N) announced it was raising prices on many of its foods products, including Folgers coffee. J&J Snack Foods said it would lift prices by as much as 12% in April to offset costs, and local newspapers have been rife with stories about pizzerias both raising prices and cutting back on crust thickness and cheese quantities.
Joseph R. Dancy, who teaches law at Southern Methodist University and runs a small hedge fund, lays the immediacy of the crisis directly on ethanol-production mandates in an energy bill recently passed in the U.S. The bill, intended to boost America's energy independence, is expected to push as much as 31% of the U.S. corn crop into biofuels production, up from 24% last year. In other words, at the exact moment we most need corn on our plates, it is being funnelled into cars. A full tank of gas requires the equivalent of a quarter of a ton of raw foodstuffs, enough to feed one person bread for a year.
Coxe's solution: As a first step, shut down all ethanol plants immediately. "It's criminal to burn corn for fuel when we are out of food," he said. In a particularly pernicious development, he noted that a big boost in demand for soybeans for use as biodiesel in Europe has driven up the price of palm oil in Southeast Asia, where it is the main source of protein for the poor.
If global famine is one bad crop away, then surely there is an investment angle. On dips, the companies to focus on are mostly the same as I described in my year-opening column, "10 market predictions for a glum '08:" Seed innovators Monsanto (MON.N) and Syngenta (SYT.N); fertilizer makers Potash of Saskatchewan (POT.N), Mosaic (MOS.N), CF Industries (CF.N) and Agrium (AGU.N); tractor maker Deere (DE.N); and, for exposure to the food futures themselves, the exchange-traded funds PowerShares DB Agriculture (DBA.N), iPath AIG Agriculture (JJA.N) and iPath AIG Grains (JJG.N).
Some additional small caps to consider are equipment retailer Titan Machinery (TITN.O), irrigation-equipment maker Lindsay (LNN.N) and processing-machine maker Key Technology (KTEC.N).
I guess this gives a new meaning to the term "seed capital."
Fine print
Coxe has published a book summarizing his view of investment bubbles and declines called "The New Reality of Wall Street." . . . To learn more about law professor Dancy, visit his Web site. . . . To keep an eye on commodity futures prices, visit here or here. The Chicago Board of Trade has a great page summarizing the action. The U.S. Department of Agriculture Web site has pages and pages of material to help you get up to speed...
I previously wrote about ethanol as bad public policy on Feb. 10 in a blog item and on Oct. 11, 2007, in a column, "Shuck the ethanol and let solar shine."
At the time of publication, Jon Markman owned shares of Monsanto, Potash of Saskatchewan, Mosaic, CF Industries, Agrium, Lindsay, Powershares DB Agriculture, iPath AIG Agriculture and iPath AIG Grains.
Related stories:
http://finance.sympatico.msn.ca/Investing/JonMarkman/Article.aspx?cp-documentid=6424206
Friday, March 14, 2008
Thursday, March 13, 2008
How far can the dollar fall?
How far can the dollar go down?
Theoretically, the US Dollar can go to zero. While unlikely, it should be remembered that nearly every currency that has ever existed throughout history, eventually has a crash that destroys 90% of absolute value, or more.
Won't foreign Central Banks support the dollar?
Why should they? If you are hungry, and your 600 lb. neighbor (who is now so fat he can't even walk anymore he needs to use one of those little carts) missed a few meals, which happen to be 5x expensive as yours, would you finance his dessert? Of course not. You are thinking many things, but supporting his habit of overeating isn't one of them. The US consumes over 25% of the world's resources but produces less than 10%. Economists may not care for such a crude analogy, but the situation with the US Dollar is very, very simple, and should not be overcomplicated. The USD has been a reserve currency for the post WW2 world, but since Nixon abandon gold standard, the USD is backed by only the belief and faith in US Government. We are seeing a commodity boom, not because of a bubble in commodity asset prices, but because of a decline in the USD, the world's reserve currency in which many commodities (especially Oil and Gold) are priced. In any event, it's not likely that foreign central banks will bail out the dollar, because that would in effect make them eat a realized loss in their current account. Moderately wealthy nations cannot afford to take the loss of the US, the largest and wealthiest economy in the world. The US has been a financial big brother who have bailed out other failing economies – but the US has no big brother to lean on, except maybe Russia, although that wouldn't go over too well in Washington. So if the US Defaults, who can come to the rescue?
Gold is cheap
Adjusted for inflation, Gold should be above 1500 – without considering any boom. Many are wondering if commodities can continue to increase, without considering how depressed commodity prices were in the late 90's. An economy can live without services, or money, but people cannot decide not to eat or use Oil. Gold is money, the high price in Gold is reflective of investors concern about the value of money – any money. The US Dollar is a reserve currency so when USD goes down, so do many other currencies. The majority of USD holders are foreigners, but that is changing (in the past 10 years foreign USD holders have decreased from 77% to 62%).
What to do?
An argument of this nature should end in a 'what's next' or 'what you should do'. Unfortunately, this is a complex situation with no magic bullet solution. On a basic personal finances level, one should sell your mortgage at any price and become debt free with low cost of living. Don't bet on any economic upturn that will save your finances, things will only get worse. Second, do what you do well – no matter what the value of the dollar or the state of the economy, there will always be demand for goods and services (unless you happen to be in real-estate business, in which case you could start looking into farms.) The good news is that in any time of chaos, uncertainty, and reorganization, there are always massive opportunities. Taking advantage of them may not require huge amounts of capital. Knowledge of the situation can cause one to be 'in the right place at the right time' or at least not 'in the wrong place at the wrong time' – for example it would not be smart to be in south Florida amidst economic suffering which could lead to crime, rioting, overall fraud, and a depressed local economy.
Property surrounding small country towns has been doubling in 1 year! Farmland has increased by as much as 500% in some areas over the last few years. There are plentiful opportunities in this market, but they may not be the traditional opportunities that investors are accustomed to.
It's 2008
There is a new market thinking, accept it or not. We don't live in the 1970's, it's not 1970 it's 2008. In 1970 Russia was communist, now there are more billionaires in Moscow than in New York. In 1970 Oil had not yet peaked, there was no Internet, financial markets were not deregulated to the extent that they are now, there were no derivatives, no climate change, and no Oil hungry China. In 1970 Europe was scarcely organized, only 25 years of reconstruction post ww2, and there was no Euro.
Thinking Different
Therefore, the only way to survive in the New Investment Paradigm is to be nimble and stay ahead of the information curve. In any field, applied intelligence can earn a solid position and even great profits. Safe havens are no longer safe as they were, the bond market is getting destroyed by inflation, TIPS (inflation protected bonds) are trading negative for the first time ever, meaning you are betting inflation will be worse than the small loss you will take on the bonds.
A trader named Paulson made a record Wall Street profit on single trade, shorting SubPrime loans. Gold investors are happily sitting on 300%+ returns since 2002. Those holding US Dollar short positions have doubled their money in several years. CTA programs have achieved 70% - 150% in 2007, trading currencies, commodities, and futures. Anyone long Oil or Gasoline futures in the past months would have been very profitable.
Clearly, there are hundreds of opportunities but no clear 'magic bullet' solution that could be recommended, compared to 5 years ago when a US Dollar short or Long Gold portfolio could have been safely recommended. It is for this reason Elite E Services is launching a Global Opportunities Hedge Fund, which should be ready by late spring. If you are trading for yourself, take quick profits and don't hold any positions for the long term, and seek new opportunities. Keep in mind the opportunities may be biased toward the Short side than the long side, as DOW and NASDAQ components will be hit by a sinking dollar, sinking US Economy, and credit problems.
Elite E Services offers forex managed accounts www.fxv1.com , FX trading strategies www.startelite.com , and market intelligence www.eliteforexblog.com . 646-837-0059
US Dollar on the verge of crash
Gasoline station purchases, which so far had been boosted by record-high fuel prices, also tumbled 1%...... http://money.cnn.com/2008/03/13/news/economy/feb_retailsales/index.htm?postversion=2008031308
``Sentiment for the dollar continues to deteriorate very, very rapidly and if we're not careful this will turn into a dollar crash,'' said Mitul Kotecha, head of foreign-exchange research in London at Calyon, the securities unit of Credit Agricole SA, France's second-biggest bank. ``The risk is that we see a fairly aggressive move sharply lower towards 95 yen, and that could really perk up the interest of the Bank of Japan.''.. http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aQ3ZEkeI8x0g&refer=home
March 13 (Bloomberg) -- Want the inside skinny on Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's next moves as he battles to avert recession, bank bankruptcies and the collapse of capitalism?... http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601039&sid=a8R_nSQd9wKU&refer=home
"The Fed's actions are keeping banks from having to write down large losses and quite likely go into bankruptcy," he writes on his blog at the American Prospect. "The result is that the bank executives, whose inept management pushed them into bankruptcy, get to keep their jobs and their salaries, which run into the tens of millions a year." Meanwhile, homeowners facing foreclosure - not to mention ordinary savers who are watching inflation erode the value of their nest eggs - remain quite unbailed-out.
Simons says the whole mess points up the limitations of the Fed. "They're not crisis managers," he says. "There's no playbook for this." http://money.cnn.com/2008/03/12/markets/fedfollies.fortune/index.htm
"My wage tripled in two years!" boasts Barbara Wasik, a Polish graphic designer.
But the pay rise was not a result of moving to the UK, instead the money rolled-in when she came back home. ... http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7282923.stm
PAPER: Fed takes boldest action since the Depression to rescue mortgage industry...
Gold hits $1,000 record high...
'Magic is over' for USA, says foreign minister of France...
Riot police called to control crowd at housing authority in Boca Raton...
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/03/13/technology/13net.html?ei=5065&en=765ff5f673bfdfee&ex=1206072000&partner=MYWAY&pagewanted=print Video Road Hogs Stir Fear of Internet Traffic Jam In a widely cited report published last November, a research firm projected that user demand for the Internet could outpace network capacity by 2011.
Wednesday, March 12, 2008
Forex Bastards gets exposed as fraud
www.forexbastards.com was one of the highest ranked forex sites on the net for a long time.
THE OWNER OF FOREX BASTARDS & SECREAT FOREX SOCIETY [ FELONY ARREST MADE & FRAUD CHARGES FILED.
> >
There is an on going investigation into the activities of Dmitri Chavkerov Poster child of 21 century Internet fraud as you know or may not know he has been under investigation for a number of things for the last few years and charges have been placed against his criminal partner in a fraudulent scheme to defraud the people of the united states. Its people like this that have made the need for homeland security a must. We must all do our due diligence to detect fraudsters and terrorist. There are also numerous complaints by investors and a pending case of identity theft and transmission of personal banking information on a female victim. As well as black mail, slander and defamation. Its time to bring Mr. Dmitri Chavkerov to justice, arrest have already been made more are sure to follow if your company has been a victim of black mail, false slander or you have lost money from his services or products or feel he has caused you financial harm please contact www.ic3.gov or your report can be documented by the arresting agent [William James Cunningham ] Documentation of the current case can be found at: >>
http://www.ice.gov/pi/news/newsrelea...osangeles1.htm
Mr. dimitri has made headlines around the world for his cutting edge class of fraud. And is the first to be caught in this type of Online fraud. Based on current information he is pretending to be a trading expert but based on financial statements he has lost a large sum of money in trading the forex market and all of his current income is from fraudulent product sales. He scares people into not buying or trusting his competitor’s products then thru his massive network of forex sites sell them his forex product. A scare then magic solution that many internet scammers / fraudsters use today. He hides behind other names and web-sites and shady people.
U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) was established in March 2003 as the largest investigative arm of the Department of Homeland Security. ICE is comprised of five integrated divisions that form a 21st century law enforcement agency with broad responsibilities for a number of key homeland security priorities.
http://www.ripoffreport.com/reports/0/305/RipOff0305422.htm
Dmitri Chavkerov has been busted by I.C.E Agents on 11/30/07 He is also not an American Citizen
United States District Court Documents
Below is the actual Governments complaint against Dmitri's girlfriend Yuliya M. Kalinina note in the interview she admits he is not a U.S citizen, and in his interview (pg-12) he admits he had knowledge of and willingly took part in this FRAUD against the United States Of America.
Also note that Dmitri is not the big shot Forex Mogul he tries to make everyone believe he is, he runs his little operation from the coffee table of his law breaking girlfriends apartment.
Official Criminal Complaint Documents (PDF) -
Case NO 07-1636M-1
Press Release-
Busted in Marina Del Rey, CA for Marriage Fraud
CNN VIDEO -
CNN Story On Just How Foolish They Were
L.A Times Story -
About Dmitri and Yuliya's Fraudulent Scheme
More info:
http://www.pipwizard.com/forexbastards
http://answers.yahoo.com/question/index?qid=20071228203505AAlJyT7
Tuesday, March 11, 2008
Fed Sells Dollars, EUR/USD down 200 pips
Fed to Lend $200 Billion, Take on Mortgage Securities (Update3) The Federal Reserve, struggling to contain a crisis of confidence in credit markets, plans to lend up to $200 billion in exchange for mortgage-backed securities.
New Tool
The Fed today set up a new tool, the Term Securities Lending Facility, to lend Treasuries to primary dealers for 28- day periods through weekly auctions. The Fed also said it's increasing the amount of dollars available to European central banks through swap lines.
The Federal Open Market Committee authorized increasing currency swap lines with the European Central Bank and Swiss National Bank to $30 billion and $6 billion, respectively, increasing the ECB's line by $10 billion and the Swiss line by $2 billion. The Fed extended the swaps through Sept. 30.
The ECB announced it will lend banks in Europe up to $15 billion for 28 days and the SNB announced a similar auction of up to $6 billion. The Bank of England will offer $20 billion of three-month loans on March 18 and hold another auction on April 15. The Bank of Canada announced plans to purchase $4 billion of securities for 28 days.
Treasuries slid after the announcement, with yields on 10- year notes rising to 3.60 percent at 10:32 a.m. in New York, from 3.46 percent late yesterday.
* 11 Mar 08: 14:42(LDN) - FX NOW! USD/JPY Flows - While equities retain gains, USD/JPY has room to move higher
USD/JPY traders are having some fun with the markets. Supported by the positive equity performance, dealers took prices up to challenge the offers seen earlier that stopped the rally around 103.20, where at least one Asian sovereign had been seen in the selling group. The offers were not there this time around and stops in the 103.25-30 range were tripped sending prices up to highs of 103.40. While equities are holding their gains, USD/JPY has more room on the upside. M.B.
* 11 Mar 08: 14:37(LDN) - FX NOW! EUR/USD Flows - more a buy opportunity than marking a top
We suspect that the run to 1.5495 on EUR/USD has proved 'near enough' to 1.5500 for a good many longs. However, while the US trade gap was better than expected, we suspect that the real US dollar policy is that it will get better yet if the USD weakens some more. Add that to ECB intransigence on interest rates, chances that the Fed will still cut by 75bps next week, more signs of peg-related unrest in the Middle East and ongoing reserve diversification (especially if the M.East story gets to take off), then we doubt that we have seen the EUR/USD high yet. PB
* 11 Mar 08: 13:26(LDN) - FX NOW! USD/JPY, EUR/JPY Flows - Asian sovereigns seen in group offering USD/JPY, stops near
USD/JPY has run into offers, rumored to include Asian sovereigns at the highs of 103.20. It is worth noting that the offers are in front of stops that are resting in the 103.25-30 range. While JPY has dropped vs USD reflecting the advanced in equities that has been sustained, with S&P futures still up 28 points at 1304, JPY is still slipping modestly vs EUR that has been moving higher ever since the stronger than expected ZEW was released this morning. M.B.
* 11 Mar 08: 13:03(LDN) - FX NOW! EUR/USD, EUR/JPY Flows - Central Bank liquidity efforts
Somewhat of a relief rally for the USD and equities on what has essentially been a signal from the major central banks. But signal it is, and a signal that might well discourage (for a while) what have become widespread expectations for another 75bps of cuts on March 18. In the meantime, the biggest USD move has been versus the JPY - which fits with the reverse flows previously seen with USD/JPY moving in lockstep with major equity indices. This has left EUR/JPY higher - a move which has restricted the pullback on EUR/USD to the 1.5350 area. C.F.
Sunday, March 9, 2008
EES FXV1 Managed Account Update
FXV1 update
The FXV1 program has undergone a major, material change that will affect our AUM, DDOC, and the setup of the account. We have closed several accounts under the old program and will re-open under the new structure. The reason for this change is due to brokerage issues and technical issues, which caused unnecessary loss of opportunity. While our system had been performing well, the good results simply weren't translated to accounts. No client accounts were adversely affected by this issue, only EES corporate account. Under the new structure, all issues should be solved and we can return to our aggressive growth, but this time with limited risk as we have developed a Dynamic Risk Strategy (DRS). www.dynamicriskstrategy.com
Tech Changes
FXV1 will no longer use TradeRobot automation technology, we will use Meta Trader platform to execute our blended systems. Elite E Services will develop our own proprietary signal aggregation software which will replace MT once it is ready, approximately in 8 months time. This technology will be a 'signal server' that will be our own Strategy Runner style 'system selector' that can be linked up to any brokerage. When this is available, FXV1 will be available at ANY brokerage, in the meantime, it will be available at any broker that uses Meta Trader platform. Any broker who wants to use the FXV1 program and does not have MT platform, can pay a development fee of $15,000 to connect FXV1 to their API, which can be repaid once fees begin to be generated.
Brokerage Changes
FXV1 will now trade with Meta Trader on major FX brokers, such as Gain Capital, ODL Securities, FX Solutions, FXCM, and any other MT broker. We welcome opportunities from IB's who want to raise money for FXV1. The initial minimum to setup FXV1 at a new brokerage is $100,000 – but once a master account is established at the new brokerage, the individual client minimum can be as low as $1,000. FXV1 will charge only performance fees, and will give rebates to any participating IBs. This is a fair 25% of the profit performance based model. NO OTHER FEES.
Return Targeting
We will structure the program to achieve 1% per week, which could be greater than 50% per year.
Account Protection
Our new system will include drawdown protection, in the event of a catastrophic market move or other technical problem, the account cannot drop below 5%.
These changes will be reflected in our DDOC soon. Please visit www.fxv1.com for more information.
Liquidity Issues
The 28-day repurchase agreements will allow primary dealers (banks and broker dealers that trade directly with the Fed) to borrow against all and any class of securities, including the agency-backed mortgages being shunned by many private-sector institutions.
The effect of the Fed's measures is to supply banks and financial institutions with the liquid funds that they can't currently obtain on the commercial markets. ..... http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters/robertpeston/
U.S. Unexpectedly Lost 63,000 Jobs in February
Tons of food aid rotting in Haiti ports
Already we have riots, hoarding, panic: the sign of things to come?
Las Vegas gambling revenues are falling for the first time since 2001, adding to the evidence that the US economy is on a losing streak.
The city has been on a roll for seven years, fuelled by increased tourism and domestic spending, with visitors flocking to the new generation of resort casinos that have sprung up along the Las Vegas Strip.
http://www.gcnlive.com/NewsStory/Gold.html U.S. central banks may have less than half the gold they claim to possess in their vaults, charges a watchdog group in an ad scheduled for publication in the Wall Street Journal this week.
Friday, March 7, 2008
Fed pumps more liquidity while Congress grills CEOs
The Federal Reserve moved to add as much as $200 billion to the banking system over the next month !!!!!!!! http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=abqaRvWOHeFc&refer=home
http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/08_11/b4075000870869.htm?chan=rss_topStories_ssi_5 Hedge Funds Frozen Shut
To buy time and stave off losses, more funds are blocking withdrawals. Are they just postponing the inevitable?
http://money.cnn.com/2008/03/07/news/newsmakers/ceo_pay/index.htm?cnn=yes
High-profile ex-banking CEOs fire back following attacks on packages, telling lawmakers that figures were exaggerated by the media.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)