Money dries up like the Great Depression

"The growth in bank loans has turned negative" (while) "the overall debt burden in the US economy is currently at record levels, raising concerns that a recession - if it occurs - could set off a sharp downward spiral."...    http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=9922

The Fed will have to cut the Fed Funds rate much more as severe downside risks to growth and to financial stability will dominate any short-term upward inflationary pressures. Leaving aside the risk of a collapse of the US dollar given this easier monetary policy the Fed Funds rate may end up being closer to 0% than 1% by the end of this financial crisis and severe recession cycle."

Interest rates are going down not up as the futures market believes.

"The recent plunge in M3 (ed.--M3 is the broadest measure of money used by economists to estimate the entire supply of money) makes it likely that credit lines have been fully tapped and/or banks have simply turned off the spigot. Liquidity shrinks by the day. Banks scrambling to refinance long-term debt are going to have a very tough go of it. Weekly unemployment claims are soaring. Consumers out of a job are going to have a tough time paying bills. Those looking for a bottom in these conditions are simply barking up the wrong tree."

Anderson said in the interview that too many people in the post-Depression era generations "play the accumulation game" to see "who can buy the most toys." But he said most people who play this game never feel like they win because "they always want more toys."

His parents taught him to "play another game," one whose object is to "see what we can really live without."

http://www.kentucky.com/211/v-print/story/500123.html

The sheer volume of this nation's national debt, consumer debt and war debt are beyond most Americans to envision. Trained by generations of "we put a man on the moon and we an do anything" mentality, the concept of economic and social collapse is beyond our ken.

http://www.indybay.org/newsitems/2008/08/24/18529280.php

The old joke was that Vermonters were already so poor that they barely noticed the Great Depression.    http://www.timesargus.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080824/NEWS01/808240387/1002/NEWS01&template=printart

http://online.wsj.com/public/article_print/SB121944152471364675.html     Honest Central Bankers...

...Would Admit Mistakes Today's Financial Mess Is Largely Result of 3 Errors

Roubini: It’s a subprime financial system

Investors should also command the procedures, technology and internal controls needed to trade an instrument and manage the risks associated with it, the policy group says. Furthermore, they should be wealthy enough to be able to absorb potential losses. Authorization to invest in complex, high-risk investments should come from the highest levels of management.

UBS AG, Merrill Lynch & Co., Citigroup Inc., HSBC and Wachovia Corp. presumably satisfy these criteria and surely regard themselves as financially sophisticated. Yet they and other institutions worldwide have racked up $505.5 billion in losses and writedowns because of the mortgage meltdown.     http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601039&sid=aK7GbFbB2OHc&refer=home

Aug. 22 (Bloomberg) -- It's hard to forget your first Nouriel Roubini experience.

Fifteen months ago, I watched an Asian Development Bank audience in Kyoto squirm and fidget as the chairman of Roubini Global Economics LLC gave his bleak, contrarian opinion that the global financial system was about to hit a wall.

``After listening to you, I feel like I need a drink or a hug or something,'' I joked to him afterward. Roubini gets a lot of such quips, and as his direst predictions about a once-in-a- lifetime bust in the U.S. economy come ever closer to reality I find myself hoping he'll be proven wrong.

Hats off to Roubini. How many times in the past year did we hear people say ``this credit crisis is containable'' or ``the worst is over'' or ``subprime-loan problems won't spread to other asset classes,'' and the like?

Roubini didn't waver, and he took considerable flack for it.

That said, Asia had better hope Roubini's economic fears are proven wrong. Ditto for the gloomy predictions of Oppenheimer & Co. analyst Meredith Whitney, who recently was toasted on the cover of Fortune magazine.

Perhaps the magazine-cover curse will kick in and the attention being tossed at Roubini, profiled last week by the New York Times, and Whitney means the worst really is over. Of course, they might say it's just a matter of public perception catching up with the reality -- a financial system in tatters.

Subprime System

One reason to think Roubini won't be proven wrong is his argument that the problem isn't the subprime mortgage market -- it's a subprime U.S. financial system. Fixing the problems sending financial contagion around the globe will require tough decisions in Washington and reforms in Wall Street's securitization system. And that's hardly happening.

How far Wall Street's reputation has fallen since the collapse of Bear Stearns Cos. was revealed by the Aiful Corp. saga. Japan's biggest consumer lender by assets threatened to sue Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. in June after analyst Walter Altherr called Aiful ``arguably insolvent'' in a report.

Lehman retracted the report earlier this month, yet not before Japan's investment community had a good chuckle. The fourth-largest U.S. securities firm, with a share price down 79 percent this year, calling another institution shaky? Talk about the proverbial pot calling the kettle black.

`Muddle Along'

Even the best-case scenario for Asia looks gloomy. As analysts like Mark Matthews of Merrill Lynch & Co. in Hong Kong point out, the next few years will see Asia-Pacific markets excluding Japan ``muddle along.'' Wasn't it just a year ago that investors were claiming Asia had decoupled from the U.S. economy?

The reasons Asia should hope Roubini eats some crow are many.

For one, the region remains too reliant on exports. While Asia made some progress boosting domestic demand, slowing U.S. growth will chip away at living standards from Seoul to Jakarta. For another, emerging markets may slide further if global investors become even more risk adverse.

Mark Mobius, executive chairman of Templeton Asset Management, may indeed be right to call the decline in emerging- market stocks ``overdone.'' Still, a deep recession in the world's biggest economy could accelerate those losses.

Asia central banks amassed trillions of dollars of currency reserves in recent years, a move that won't seem illogical if Roubini is proved correct. That cash will be needed to provide insurance to global investors that the region won't see a repeat of its 1997 crisis.

U.S. Contagion

A decade ago, Asia was exporting financial contagion potent enough to send the Dow Jones Industrial Average down hundreds of points here and there. These days, the U.S. is returning the favor, just as Diwa Guinigundo, deputy governor of the Philippine central bank, predicted to me a year ago. Hats off to Guinigundo; he was absolutely right.

Where do we stand now? ``One year later, in the U.S. the lack of improvement in the money markets is still taking center stage,'' Roubini said yesterday. And the Federal Reserve, on top of cutting its benchmark interest rate 325 basis points, continues to expand its liquidity facilities ``without significant impact on credit creation.''

That's affecting emerging markets. For example, Roubini said, ``the global credit crisis has exacerbated home-grown liquidity squeezes in countries like South Korea.''

The question is how Asia would weather further weakness in the U.S. China's boom has provided some cushion, yet officials in Beijing are busily working to tame inflation. It also would be a mistake to think a U.S. recession won't slam China.

So here's to Roubini for having a good couple of years of economic prognosticating. And here's to hoping he'll be less right in the future. Asia's prosperity may depend on it.

(William Pesek is a Bloomberg News columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.)

To contact the writer of this column: William Pesek in Tokyo at wpesek@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: August 21, 2008 20:23 EDT

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601039&sid=aETnD_QSZYWU&refer=home

this painful ordeal is far from over

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2008/08/18/ccview118.xml The futures market is pricing a 33pc fall in US house prices from peak to trough, based on the Case-Shiller index. Banks have not come close to writing off implied losses on this scale.

Daniel Alpert from Westwood Capital predicts that a mere 28pc fall would alone lead to a $5.4 trillion haircut in US household wealth, and leave lenders nursing $1.25 trillion in losses. So far they have confessed to less than $500bn.

Meredith Whitney, the Oppenheimer's bank Cassandra, predicts a gruesome 40pc fall in prices. If so, expect prime borrowers facing negative equity to start throwing in the towel en masse. "I do not think we are near the end of writedowns. I continue to see capital levels going lower, and stocks going lower," she said.

So no, this painful ordeal is far from over. We are not witnessing a dollar rally so much as a collapse in European and commodity currencies. The race to the bottom has begun in earnest.

Market finally realizes Russia has OIL

Oil Rises More Than $3 on U.S.-Russia Tensions, Dollar Weakness

By Mark Shenk

Aug. 21 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil advanced more than $3 on speculation that rising tensions between the U.S. and Russia may disrupt the flow of oil, and as a weaker dollar bolstered the appeal of commodities.

Russia, which vies with Saudi Arabia as the world's biggest oil producer, criticized U.S. plans for a missile shield in Poland. Russia's invasion of Georgia has cut some export routes for Caspian Sea crude. Oil and gold climbed as the dollar fell to the lowest against the euro in a week.

``The fall of the dollar is sending a huge investor flow into commodities,'' said Gene McGillian, an analyst at TFS Energy LLC in Stamford, Connecticut. ``The tensions between Russia and the West were supposed to be simmering down but they are now ratcheting up because of Poland's agreement with the U.S.''

Crude oil for October delivery rose $3.72, or 3.2 percent, to $119.28 a barrel at 9:10 a.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Futures are down 19 percent from a record $147.27 reached on July 11. Prices are up 71 percent from a year ago.

Brent crude oil for October settlement rose $3.48, or 3 percent, to $117.84 a barrel on London's ICE Futures Europe exchange.

``The dollar has been the big driver of both the rally and the pullback,'' said Kevin Kerr, president of Kerr Trading International in Wilton, Connecticut.

The dollar fell 0.3 percent to $1.4796 per euro, from $1.4747, and touched $1.4833, the weakest since Aug. 14.

``The hope was that Russia's fields would be developed and the barrels made available,'' Kerr said. ``If you are a multinational, you are already afraid of nationalization of your assets. Now, with the recent problems between Russia and its neighbors, nobody is going to invest there.''

Foreign Control

TNK-BP, a 50-50 venture between BP Plc and a group of billionaires known collectively as AAR, is embroiled in a dispute over strategy and management. BP, which relies on the company for almost a quarter of its output, is struggling to maintain control amid pressure on foreign employees.

U.S. gasoline supplies fell 6.2 million barrels last week, the U.S. Energy Department said in a report yesterday, more than double analysts' predictions. Crude-oil stockpiles rose 9.39 million barrels to 305.9 million barrels, the biggest gain since March 2001, the report showed. Stockpiles fell the previous week when Tropical Storm Edouard hit Texas.

Fuel Production

Refineries operated at 85.7 percent of capacity in the week ended Aug. 15, down 0.2 percentage point from the week before and the lowest since the week ended May 2, the report showed.

``The market shrugged off the big crude build because they attributed it to delayed imports that couldn't arrive during the week of Edouard,'' McGillian said. ``More attention was paid to the drop in gasoline stocks and refinery runs. If refiners continue to operate at this level we won't be able to build product inventories.''

Gasoline for September delivery rose 8.78 cents, or 3 percent, to $2.9981 a gallon in New York. Futures reached a record $3.631 a gallon on July 11.

Pump prices haven't increased since July 19, according to the AAA, the nation's largest motorist organization. Regular gasoline, averaged nationwide, fell 1.5 cents to $3.702 a gallon, the AAA said today on its Web site. Prices reached a record $4.114 a gallon on July 17.

To contact the reporter on this story: Mark Shenk in New York at mshenk1@bloomberg.net.

Last Updated: August 21, 2008 09:41 EDT

Will EURO survive a Russian invasion?

It is by no means certain whether the EU and the European Monetary Union will even be able to survive the currently detonating financial crisis. And there ought to be an investigation into whether the European Central Bank's incessant injections of liquidity into foundering Spanish banks—which German taxpayers, too, will ultimately have to foot the bill for—is consistent with the ECB's own statutes, which assert that it neither desires, nor is permitted to become a "lender of last resort."

http://www.larouchepub.com/hzl/2008/3533rus_enemy_partner.html

WASHINGTON DC- The Bush administration appears to have pulled off its latest military fiasco in the Caucasus. What was supposed to have been a swiftly and painless takeover of rebellious South Ossetia by America's favourite new ally, Georgia, has turned into a disaster that left Georgia battered, Russia enraged, and NATO badly demoralized. Not bad for two days work.    http://www.ericmargolis.com/archives/2008/08/crisis_in_the_c.php

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/08/20/world/europe/20diplo.html?hp

The stupid party suggests war with Russia – how long before USD is affected?

Stuart Mill, called his conservative party, the Republican Party, "the stupid party."    http://www.aljazeera.com/news/newsfull.php?newid=150105

George Bush said earlier this month that "the age of spheres of influence is over". In that case why push that most potent sphere of influence, Nato, to the Russian border? And what of the sphere-of-influence theory that underpinned Bush's neoconservative plan to conquer the Muslim world for democracy?    http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2008/aug/20/nato.usforeignpolicy

http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2008/08/caucuses.html/print.html     Russia has claimed control of this area for most of the past two centuries despite the very steep price required for that control. From 1804 to 1813, Russia battled Persia for control over the South Caucasus in a war that ended at Lenkoran

Credit crunch may take out large US bank warns former IMF chief

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/banking_and_finance/article4563171.ece
The deepening toll from the global financial crisis could trigger the failure of a large US bank within months, a respected former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund claimed today, fuelling another battering for banking shares.

Professor Kenneth Rogoff, a leading academic economist, said there was yet worse news to come from the worldwide credit crunch and financial turmoil, particularly in the United States, and that a high-profile casualty among American banks was highly likely.

"The US is not out of the woods. I think the financial crisis is at the halfway point, perhaps. I would even go further to say the worst is to come," Prof Rogoff said at a conference in Singapore.

In an ominous warning, he added: "We're not just going to see mid-sized banks go under in the next few months, we're going to see a whopper, we're going to see a big one — one of the big investment banks or big banks," he said.

What can the fed do

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a0v71H6gketc&refer=home Aug. 18 (Bloomberg) -- Ben S. Bernanke is still trying to define which financial institutions it's safe to let fail. The longer it takes him to decide, the tougher the decision becomes.

In the year since credit markets seized up, the 54-year- old Federal Reserve chairman has repeatedly expanded the central bank's protective role, turning its balance sheet into a parking lot for Wall Street's hard-to-finance bonds and offering loans through its discount window to investment banks and mortgage firms Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

EES - What Russian war means for the Euro

The conflict in Georgia is greatly affecting the Euro across the board. What does this all mean, and where should investors go?

FX is extremely sensitive to politics, because a shift in a domestic political system can be directly connected to a currency's value. For example, the Chinese government announcement that the Yuan would float, albeit a 'soft peg' to the USD, shattered the relationship between a previously pegged Yuan and the USD. Many watching the situation in Georgia are unaware how this impacts them, and how it impacts FX. Also, this war, like many wars, is an information war, and the media spin leaves viewers with a less than accurate picture of reality.

The strength of the Euro over the past 5 years has been in part, not European strength as much as American weakness. A combination of economic factors in the US has made investors fear the USD and purchase non-USD based assets in Euros and other foreign currencies. Also, the Fed has been lowering US interest rates to a finally negative real interest rate.

The recent strength in the USD is not USD strength per se, but Euro weakness. The fear is that Europe will be involved in a war with Russia, and energy will be involved. Russia supplies 25% of the EU's energy needs and over 50% to many Eastern European states, and the EU is Russia's largest trading partner, totaling $285 Billion.

Immediately after the 4% drop in the Euro in 2 days, Bank of America issued a warning to its' customers summarizing the situation that, although the USD is showing signs of recovery, a war in Europe does not solve the fundamentally flawed US economy, and they expect further USD weakness.

Russia's involvement in Europe is not only energy. The US has planned military bases in many eastern-bloc countries, one of which has been signed during the crisis in Georgia.

One problem with Europeans is they cannot agree. This is what makes Europe charming and culture-rich but politically complex. USA is a 'melting-pot' which has become a mono-culture based on corporatism, while American's argue their thinking lies in the same direction. Since the US Civil war, US mono-culture has solidified the mainstream in a view that always agrees on some tenets, this is not the case in Europe. Entry into the EU and the Euro passed referendum in many EU states by thin margins, there are those who would like to revert back to national currencies.

One main difference between the Euro and other currencies: the Euro does not have a government behind it. Individual EU states retain their sovereignty, and those states central banks have essentially no power to influence the Euro directly, except for lobbying the ECB. So the Euro is a designer currency hanging on a thin margin, which could be toppled by a severe energy crisis should the situation with Russia escalate. US involvement in Eastern European countries will only increase the chances of Russia's will to turn off the lights.

Russia has already quietly begun selling oil in Rubles, and announced the Ruble is fully convertible (since 2006). While by itself these actions are not market-shattering, combined with the potential conflict in Georgia, and Russia's aggressive policy to capitalize on their vast wealth in natural resources, a situation is brewing in Europe which can be potentially explosive. Any turmoil can be seen as bad for the Euro, regardless of the actual damage done. The disadvantage of Europe is it's history: Europe has been involved in wars and currency devaluations. As poor as the US economic numbers are, the US is involved in foreign wars at its leisure, there is no compelling reason the US should be involved in any war.

Russia can also affect emerging markets which it may be forced to trade with, such as India, China, and Brazil. Russian oil could help a growing Chinese economy and decrease Russia's dependence on European customers. In a complex environment a static forecast is not possible, but it is clear any instability or even the perception of instability close to Europe will be negative for the Euro. Elite E Services believes the next bubble to pop will be the Euro bubble.

Long term, this is a buying opportunity for hard commodities such as Wheat, Swiss Francs, Oil, and Gold. Whatever happens in this war, the supply side in the Oil market is controlled by unfriendly countries such as Venezuela and Iran. If Russia is now added to the list of unfriendly countries, we can expect Oil to increase long term, as Russia will use this as a bargaining chip in any negotiations.

This move has been excellent for CTA's trading momentum and trend-based strategies. For short term gains in the FX or Commodities markets, investors can seek CTA's with established track records or automated trading systems, which are performing very well in environments like this. In fact, desynchronized markets are ideal for systems that monitor and analyze discreet price data vs. fundamentals.

Elite E Services is a registered CTA with the CFTC and NFA Member (#373609). eliteeservices.net

New Cold war politics: It’s not 1968

The West has mishandled Russia at every point from the death of communism.

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24164768-2703,00.html#

"It is government by mobile phone," says one foreign observer.     http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/33a7495e-6aed-11dd-b613-0000779fd18c.html

President Bush's new deal with Poland gives that country millions in aid, stokes Russia's paranoia and decreases America's security. It is bad policy.

President Bush has promised Poland tens of millions of dollars in defense assistance to buy its agreement to deploy 10 anti-missile interceptors he says are necessary to counter a future Iranian missile threat. Here is the punch line: the interceptors don't work and Iran doesn't have any missiles that can reach Europe, let alone the United States. Wait, there's more.

After insisting for two years that the anti-missile base had nothing to do with Russia and was all about Iran, missile defense proponents now say it is all about countering Russia. They cite the conflict in Georgia as justification for their rush to deploy a technology that does not work against a threat that does not exist.

The Bush administration had gone to great lengths to assure Russia that the proposed anti-missile bases in the Czech Republic and Poland are not intended to offset a threat from the Kremlin. Director of the Missile Defense Agency, General Trey Obering, said just one month ago.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/joe-cirincione/georgia-crisis-propels-a_b_119020.html

http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/0,1518,572329,00.html Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice has warned that "this is not 1968 and the invasion of Czechoslovakia where Russia can threaten its neighbors, occupy a capital, overthrow a government and get away with it. ... Things have changed." Defense Secretary Robert Gates has threatened to end military cooperation with Russia -- in both bilateral ties and in NATO. "What happens in the days and months to come will determine the future course of US-Russian relations," Gates said. "My personal view is that there needs to be some consequences for the actions that Russia has taken against a sovereign state."

Where does the  EU stand on the future status of the South Ossetia and Abkhazia provinces that officially belong to Georgia?

We have avoided talking about this and I will also avoid discussing it with you. It's one the points where we said that we as the European Union will of course contribute in negotiations, in a sort of mediation or intervention. And we have said from the very beginning what should happen with this. In any case we are backing the integrity of Georgian territory.

http://www.dw-world.de/dw/article/0,2144,3567398,00.html

Commodities fall as Dollar Rises presenting buying opportunity

``Longer term, we would not be surprised to see gold double,'' the bank's analysts John Hill and Graham Wark wrote in a report. ``We would be aggressive buyers at current levels expecting gold to work higher through 2009/10.''

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=adea3QtEDjrI&refer=home

Multi Currency Expert Advisors

http://championship.mql4.com/2008/news/374?source=mql4email One of MQL4's advantages is the fact that it allows users to trade all available symbols shown in the Market Watch window. Expert Advisors usually trade only one currency pair - the one, to the chart of which they are attached. However, there are EAs that trade several symbols simultaneously. We call such programs multicurrency Expert Advisors.

The Championship Rules allow trading 12 currency pairs. This is why it is no wonder that multicurrency EAs were submitted for participation in the previous Championships. They were represented in smaller amounts than single-currency ones, though. In this article, we will consider multicurrency EAs that participated in the Championships of 2006/2007.

Georgia: With NATO Shown As Paper Tiger, What Next?

http://www.stratfor.com/audio/download/121773/20080812Stratfor_Daily_Podcast-EDITED.mp3 Whatever happens in Georgia now, NATO's prospects of expansion have been weakened and its rhetoric exposed. In discussion with Colin Chapman, Stratfor CEO George Friedman says Washington and NATO have very little alternative but to stop further NATO expansion and respect the Russian "sphere of influence."

http://www.stratfor.com/podcast/putins_chess_move_paints_nato_paper_tiger

Crisis in Europe deepens as FX markets stabalize

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/blog/2008/08/11/BL2008081101093_pf.html Back in 2005, speaking before a crowd of more than 150,000 exuberant Georgians cheering "Bushi! Bushi!", President Bush made a promise to the people of that former Soviet republic: "The path of freedom you have chosen is not easy, but you will not travel it alone. Americans respect your courageous choice for liberty. And as you build a free and democratic Georgia, the American people will stand with you."

So where was Bush as Russia launched a major military attack against Georgia? Monkeying around with the U.S. women's volleyball players -- and otherwise amusing himself at the Beijing Olympics.

This is not to suggest that Bush should have sent in the Marines. But his impotence in the face of such a gravely destabilizing move highlights not only his personal loss of stature, but how deeply he has diminished American authority on the world stage generally and, particularly, in the eyes of Russia.

In the long term, the best way to take Russia down a notch (along with Iran, Venezuela, and other hostile powers overflowing with oil money) is to pursue policies and fund technologies that slash the demand for oil. The Georgia crisis should make clear, if it isn't already, that this is a matter of hard-headed national security.... http://www.slate.com/id/2197281/

Finally, the essentially anti-American and anti-Israeli character of the so-called "anti-imperialist" crowd has been confirmed.... http://www.oregoncommentator.com/2008/08/11/losing-georgia/

Following are comments from security, political and economic analysts on the crisis: ... "It's payback time by the Russians for what the West did in Kosovo. ..."The military action in Georgia is a reminder to financial markets that geopolitical risks remain significant, even if, in recent times, they have been overshadowed by economic and credit risks... http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUKLB71416020080811

"If the United States and Europe don't stop Russia, I think this is the end of what we thought of as the post-Soviet era," said Sarah Mendelson, a scholar at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. ... http://www.nytimes.com/2008/08/12/world/europe/12diplo.html?ref=europe

http://www.forbes.com/2008/08/11/russia-georgia-putin-biz-cz_hb_0811russia_print.html

Putin's War Games
Heidi Brown , 08.11.08, 6:03 PM ET

The most surprising thing about the Russian invasion of Georgia this week is neither the incursion into another country's sovereign territory nor the vehemence of the attack.

No, most surprising was how the invasion baldly showcased who's really in charge of Russia. While Prime Minister Vladimir Putin met with commanders in South Ossetia and made statements, his anointed successor and Russia's nominal leader, President Dmitry Medvedev, hung around Moscow holding press conferences, thousands of miles from the action--and the world spotlight.

Georgia accused Russia of attacking its Baku-Ceyhan-Tbilisi pipeline, which transports oil from Central Asia to Western markets via the Black Sea. Russia's foreign ministry has denied the attacks, but Georgia claims it is an attempt by Russia to control its infrastructure.

But Putin's true aim is political. As the U.S. continues to build its missile presence at Russia's back door (missile defense systems are being developed in Poland and the Czech Republic) and Georgia and Ukraine cozy up to NATO, Putin is reminding the countries of Central Asia, as well as the West, that Russia still has the wherewithal to wage a successful war.

"Russia's end game is to reassert its sphere of influence," says George Friedman, director of intelligence-analysis firm Stratfor in Austin, Texas.

There's another purpose as well: helping Putin solidify leadership in Russia, backed by the siloviki, a network of former intelligence officials he has at times tolerated and other times embraced throughout his years in power.

Since the presidential elections in May, Moscow's main parlor game is figuring which government faction will prevail: Putin's network or Medvedev's much smaller circle of technocrats and finance folks. Olga Kryshtanovskaya, a sociologist who has spent much of the last two decades studying the business and government elite, argues that Putin has managed to keep--and expand--a powerful network of former intelligence officials and powerful businessmen eager to fulfill his demands.

Despite the surface changes in leadership, Putin retained almost all of his old crowd--former security services cronies like Igor Sechin and Victor Ivanov, who are rumored to be advising him on this action as well as on Russia's request that Georgia's leadership be replaced.

Many in the West hoped Medvedev would be able to build up a block of allies in the Kremlin and begin to push for progress in the government. It didn't happen, says Kryshtanovskaya. "Medvedev's personnel resource is extraordinarily limited. For now he can count on a small group of officials with whom he had worked in the government previously. But in the main, he is surrounded by Putinite cadres."

The aggression against Georgia, despite some self-important public statements by Medvedev, suggests Putin and his circle still have the upper hand.

Putin can use the war against Georgia to show the greater populace of Russia that his view is relevant--even necessary. "Let the West denigrate our military, let them call us retrograde," he might say, but Georgia's actions only show how desperately Russia needs to be strong.

No matter the level of influence Putin's circle of apparatchiks may have, he is sending them a clear message: Your point of view works for me. And I'll be keeping you around for a while.

That means that those who hope for an end to the Putin era will be left waiting for a while longer too.

http://english.pravda.ru/hotspots/conflicts/11-08-2008/106053-georgia_ossetia_russia-0 US presidential runoff John McCain said that Russia should not interfere in the conflict in South Ossetia. The pro-Georgian propaganda in the US media testifies to the same opinion. It brings up the idea that the Georgian aggression against the unrecognized republic of South Ossetia has been coordinated with the US administration. Nevertheless, all arguments of US politicians and experts (Pravda.ru interviewed some of them) do not withstand any criticism.

The US military was surprised by the timing and swiftness of the Russian military's move into South Ossetia and is still trying to sort out what happened, a US defense official said Monday..... http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=080811222408.40e5p19r&show_article=1

Euro drops below 1.50 on War Fears

Aug. 11 (Bloomberg) -- The euro fell to a five-month low against the dollar as fighting between Russia and Georgia spread to a second front, raising concern about stability in Europe. http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=amlkXhI0H7v8&refer=home

The dollar's 4 percent surge against the single European currency this month was enough to prompt Bank of America Corp. to tell its customers to exit trades betting on more gains. Morgan Stanley still forecasts the greenback will approach a record low by October as the U.S. housing slump and credit- market losses keep the Fed from raising interest rates this year.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/077576b6-670b-11dd-808f-0000779fd18c,dwp_uuid=7c485a38-2f7a-11da-8b51-00000e2511c8,print=yes.html
Georgia on Sunday said it was pulling its troops out of the separatist province of South Ossetia but its appeals for a ceasefire in the widening conflict in the Caucasus failed to halt Russia's mounting military response.

As the focus of the fighting widened from South Ossetia to Abkhazia, another separatist region, Russian aircraft were reported to have struck at targets inside Georgia, including the civilian airport in the capital Tbilisi.

Local officials said Russia also deployed a naval squadron off the coast of Abkhazia where local separatists have historically enjoyed Russia's support.

The United States is denouncing the Russians as aggressors in the UN Security Council and accusing the Kremlin of engaging in a policy of "regime change," in Ambassador Khalilzad's phrase. The Russian response: "regime change" is "an American invention," but, hey, in Saakashvili's case, it might not be such a bad idea.... http://www.antiwar.com/justin/?articleid=13285

"My heart aches at this repetitious history of Russian dominance and aggression, whether Czarist, Bolshevik or Oligarchic," said Thomas Goltz, a US expert on the Caucasus. "We can ask the question: Did Misha [Saakashvili] go too far or get pulled into a trap? But it really makes no difference right now. Russia has just declared the 'post-Soviet era' over and a new age has begun." http://www.todayszaman.com/tz-web/detaylar.do?load=detay&link=149892&bolum=104

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1043476/Shamed-loss-empire-Russia-wounded-bear-provoke-grave-peril.html

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/08/10/AR2008081001871.html

http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=9788 ...Georgia does not act militarily without the assent of Washington. The Georgian head of State is a US proxy and Georgia is a de facto US protectorate.

Who is behind this military agenda? What interests are being served? What is the purpose of the military operation.

There is evidence that the attacks were carefully coordinated by the US military and NATO.