Crude, Gasoline advances as forecast by EES

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aZQgpZMcLmfM&refer=home

Crude Oil, Gasoline Advance as Gustav Cuts Production, Refining

By Gavin Evans and Margot Habiby

Sept. 1 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil and gasoline futures rose as Hurricane Gustav approached the U.S. Gulf coast, halting most regional oil and gas output and shutting local refineries.

Gustav, about 215 miles (350 kilometers) south-southeast of the Mississippi River mouth, will make landfall along the Louisiana coast later today as a ``major'' hurricane, according to the U.S. National Hurricane Center. Wind and sea conditions have reduced the chances of ``significant intensification,'' the center said.

``There are still some production rigs in the way'' of a major storm, said Gerard Burg, energy and minerals economist at National Australia Bank Ltd. in Melbourne. ``We're just going to have to wait and see what kind of impact it's going to have.''

Crude oil for October delivery rose $1.52, or 1.3 percent, to $116.98 a barrel in after-hours electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange at 9:45 a.m. in Sydney. Prices, which dropped 7 percent in August, are up 22 percent this year.

Gulf Coast refineries have cut at least 1.56 million barrels a day of production, about 9.8 percent of the U.S. total. Eight refineries have announced shutdowns, while another five have reduced capacity.

Personnel from more than 70 percent of the platforms and rigs in the Gulf have been evacuated as the storm approaches, the U.S. Minerals Management Service said in a statement on its Web site yesterday. About 1.25 million barrels a day of oil, and 6.09 billion cubic feet of gas have been shut, or more than 96 percent of offshore oil output and 82 percent of gas production.

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/4472

PRODUCTION/INFRASTRUCTURE MAPS AND REFINERY INFORMATION

Here's a link to a really good map of oil refining/SPR storage facilities in respect to the path of Katrina (NB: OLD TRACK MAP!) and here is a listing of production and refining capability for the state of LA.

Just to give you a rough idea of where things are, the map above is a probability swath for Katrina (OLD TRACK MAP!) with the Thunder Horse platform as the red dot, and the other purple dot represents the Mad Dog development (100,000 bd); the Holstein development that produces at peak, around 100,000 bd of oil; and the Atlantis field that may have ramped up to around 200,000 bd in all. Put together these projects have the potential of around 650,000 bd, but as can be seen, they were sitting in an uncomfortable spot relative to the track of the Katrina.The white dot is where Port Fourchon is.  This is where the Louisiana Offshore Oil Port, or LOOP, is located. Rigzone pointed out that this is where the foreign tankers offload, Google and Terraserve maps you can see that the area is very low-lying.  One of the big concerns is that there will be sub-sea landslides or other ground movement that might affect the LOOP.  Were this to be disrupted, then foreign tankers would need to be diverted elsewhere, with the likely port being Houston.

Here is a really good link/map (from "Rod and Reel" no less) of the LA southern coastline showing all of the Submersible and Floater Gulf rigs.

We have accumulated resources from previous hurricans below, but we'd like to find updated materials if you know of them. Recent refinery maps, recent rig maps in the gulf, recent gas fields, SPR facilities, the Intercoastal Canal, pipeline stations and transfer points, etc., etc. Leave links in the comments please.

Also, here's the EIA's Alabama, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Texas Resources pages. They will also likely come in handy. Also, here's a link to the national page.

Here's another good resource for infrastructure maps and such. (scroll down a bit)

Here's a map from CNN with large and small refineries laid out. (though it is an old storm track)

Very detailed piece by RIGZONE on rigs and other infrastructure in the area. (thanks mw)

Here's a flash graphic of the oil refineries and rig maps from Hurricane Rita, it emphasizes Beaumont and Galveston's importance. Click on oil production in the tab. Note the many rigs on the east side of the storm that will get the brunt of the damage from the NE quad of the storm...hence the high long-term GOMEX oil production damage estimates below.

Here's a link to Rigzone's coverage of Gustav.

You want a detailed map? Well here's the probably the best MMS map I could find. Very detailed and lots of interesting stuff. (VERY big .pdf warning)

Also, Scott Wilmoth at Simmons & Co was kind enough to send us this map. The map below captures only deepwater infrastructure. For a complete list of deepwater development systems (includes operator, depth, location): http://www.gomr.mms.gov/homepg/offshore/deepwatr/dpstruct.html

(Please deposit new relevant links, graphs, and comments in this new thread...we have updated the resources part of this post with new maps and some more old maps and articles from Katrina on the LOOP and Port Fourchon--important parts of the infrastructure, as we learned about three years ago. Please leave personal anecdotes and themes unrelated to hurricane for the other upcoming 'bigger picture' posts, as yesterdays information was difficult to upload for those on dial-up)

Russia may cut off oil flow to the West

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?view=DETAILS&grid=&xml=/money/2008/08/29/cnrussia129.xml

Fears are mounting that Russia may restrict oil deliveries to Western Europe over coming days, in response to the threat of EU sanctions and Nato naval actions in the Black Sea.

Any such move would be a dramatic escalation of the Georgia crisis and play havoc with the oil markets.

Reports have begun to circulate in Moscow that Russian oil companies are under orders from the Kremlin to prepare for a supply cut to Germany and Poland through the Druzhba (Friendship) pipeline. It is believed that executives from lead-producer LUKoil have been put on weekend alert.

"They have been told to be ready to cut off supplies as soon as Monday," claimed a high-level business source, speaking to The Daily Telegraph. Any move would be timed to coincide with an emergency EU summit in Brussels, where possible sanctions against Russia are on the agenda.

RBV8 RBOB Buy for weekend hurricane info

http://quote.barchart.com/quote.asp?sym=RBV8&code=BSTK

http://news.google.com/news/url?sa=t&ct=us/0-0&fp=48b898e3464678dc&ei=5ky4SLTdN5nI8ATLotDYAw&url=http%3A//www.bloomberg.com/apps/news%3Fpid%3D20601087%26sid%3DagFHDeJtXOEc%26refer%3Dhome&cid=1240704120&usg=AFQjCNGrJyjdzu6YDtYW8e3IizxMHXjHLA
29 (Bloomberg) -- Tropical Storm Gustav pounded Jamaica with rain, flooding streets with water and mud, as Louisiana prepared for the system to strengthen

* Strong dollar pressures oil, balancing Gustav support
guardian.co.uk, UK - 1 hour ago
NEW YORK, Aug 29 (Reuters) - Oil prices were nearly unchanged by midday Friday as a stronger dollar balanced concerns that Tropical Storm Gustav will impact

Bernanke, Aiming to Curtail Market Risks, Met NYSE, CME Chiefs

Bernanke, Aiming to Curtail Market Risks, Met NYSE, CME Chiefs

By Scott Lanman

Aug. 28 (Bloomberg) -- Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke, aiming to curb risks in derivatives markets, met in June with NYSE Euronext Chief Executive Officer Duncan Niederauer and CME Group Inc. Chairman Terrence Duffy.

The Fed chief met on June 17 with Niederauer and on June 27 with Duffy, according to Bernanke's schedule for the month, released to Bloomberg News after a Freedom of Information Act request. CME is the No. 1 futures exchange in the U.S., and NYSE Euronext is the world's biggest owner of stock exchanges.

Bernanke and Duffy ``discussed a number of economic issues, including the credit markets and over-the-counter derivatives,'' CME spokesman Allan Schoenberg said in an e-mail message.

The central bank is trying to improve processing of trades in the $454 trillion over-the-counter derivatives markets, an effort Bernanke said last month would help the financial system ``withstand future shocks.''

The New York Fed and 17 securities dealers including Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and JPMorgan Chase & Co. agreed in July to form a central counterparty for the credit-default swap market that could absorb the failure of one of the major dealers.

Fed officials began urging banks in 2005 to improve processing of credit-default swaps as a backlog of unsigned trades ballooned to the equivalent of more than 17 days of trading volume.

CME and NYSE are seeking to expand into the $62 trillion market for credit default swaps, which let investors bet on the likelihood that companies will fail to repay debt. NYSE spokesman Richard Adamonis declined to comment.

Derivatives are financial instruments derived from stocks, bonds, loans, currencies and other assets, or linked to specific events like changes in the weather or interest rates.

At Risk

The amount U.S. commercial banks have at risk in derivatives markets jumped 50 percent in the first quarter as the credit crisis triggered an increase in the value of the contracts, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency said last month.

Bernanke in June also continued weekly breakfasts with Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson. The Fed chief met twice with Securities and Exchange Commission Chairman Christopher Cox as they worked out an agreement on sharing information about the capital and risk-management systems of securities firms.

Bernanke had lunch at the White House with President George W. Bush on June 3. Earlier that day, the chairman had given a speech voicing concern about the declining value of the dollar.

The Fed chief delivered private remarks on June 6 to the Bilderberg Group, a gathering of North American and European government and business leaders, at a hotel in the Washington suburb of Chantilly, Virginia.

U.K. Leaders

Bernanke also met with a number of British officials. He met in his office on June 5 with Howard Davies, director of the London School of Economics, who formerly served as chairman of the U.K. Financial Services Authority and deputy governor of the country's central bank.

The daybook shows Bernanke also met for about 30 minutes on June 6 with George Osborne, Treasury spokesman for the U.K.'s opposition Conservative Party.

The British Embassy in Washington hosted a dinner on June 24 for the Federal Open Market Committee while policy makers were in town for a two-day meeting on interest rates.

To contact the reporter on this story: Scott Lanman in Washington at slanman@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: August 28, 2008 11:30 EDT

Matrix NN up 200% on the week

http://earesults.com/system/111/1/ticket/asc

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Real Estate adjusted for inflation negative first time since 1960

http://www.shadowstats.com/article/292
HYPERINFLATION SPECIAL REPORT

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/blog/2008/08/26/BL2008082601591_pf.html President Bush yesterday telegraphed in the clearest possible way that he's not interested in turning down the heat on the simmering geopolitical conflict with Russia. Quite the contrary. He's sending Vice President Cheney to harry Russia's borders.

Money dries up like the Great Depression

"The growth in bank loans has turned negative" (while) "the overall debt burden in the US economy is currently at record levels, raising concerns that a recession - if it occurs - could set off a sharp downward spiral."...    http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=9922

The Fed will have to cut the Fed Funds rate much more as severe downside risks to growth and to financial stability will dominate any short-term upward inflationary pressures. Leaving aside the risk of a collapse of the US dollar given this easier monetary policy the Fed Funds rate may end up being closer to 0% than 1% by the end of this financial crisis and severe recession cycle."

Interest rates are going down not up as the futures market believes.

"The recent plunge in M3 (ed.--M3 is the broadest measure of money used by economists to estimate the entire supply of money) makes it likely that credit lines have been fully tapped and/or banks have simply turned off the spigot. Liquidity shrinks by the day. Banks scrambling to refinance long-term debt are going to have a very tough go of it. Weekly unemployment claims are soaring. Consumers out of a job are going to have a tough time paying bills. Those looking for a bottom in these conditions are simply barking up the wrong tree."

Anderson said in the interview that too many people in the post-Depression era generations "play the accumulation game" to see "who can buy the most toys." But he said most people who play this game never feel like they win because "they always want more toys."

His parents taught him to "play another game," one whose object is to "see what we can really live without."

http://www.kentucky.com/211/v-print/story/500123.html

The sheer volume of this nation's national debt, consumer debt and war debt are beyond most Americans to envision. Trained by generations of "we put a man on the moon and we an do anything" mentality, the concept of economic and social collapse is beyond our ken.

http://www.indybay.org/newsitems/2008/08/24/18529280.php

The old joke was that Vermonters were already so poor that they barely noticed the Great Depression.    http://www.timesargus.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080824/NEWS01/808240387/1002/NEWS01&template=printart

http://online.wsj.com/public/article_print/SB121944152471364675.html     Honest Central Bankers...

...Would Admit Mistakes Today's Financial Mess Is Largely Result of 3 Errors

Roubini: It’s a subprime financial system

Investors should also command the procedures, technology and internal controls needed to trade an instrument and manage the risks associated with it, the policy group says. Furthermore, they should be wealthy enough to be able to absorb potential losses. Authorization to invest in complex, high-risk investments should come from the highest levels of management.

UBS AG, Merrill Lynch & Co., Citigroup Inc., HSBC and Wachovia Corp. presumably satisfy these criteria and surely regard themselves as financially sophisticated. Yet they and other institutions worldwide have racked up $505.5 billion in losses and writedowns because of the mortgage meltdown.     http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601039&sid=aK7GbFbB2OHc&refer=home

Aug. 22 (Bloomberg) -- It's hard to forget your first Nouriel Roubini experience.

Fifteen months ago, I watched an Asian Development Bank audience in Kyoto squirm and fidget as the chairman of Roubini Global Economics LLC gave his bleak, contrarian opinion that the global financial system was about to hit a wall.

``After listening to you, I feel like I need a drink or a hug or something,'' I joked to him afterward. Roubini gets a lot of such quips, and as his direst predictions about a once-in-a- lifetime bust in the U.S. economy come ever closer to reality I find myself hoping he'll be proven wrong.

Hats off to Roubini. How many times in the past year did we hear people say ``this credit crisis is containable'' or ``the worst is over'' or ``subprime-loan problems won't spread to other asset classes,'' and the like?

Roubini didn't waver, and he took considerable flack for it.

That said, Asia had better hope Roubini's economic fears are proven wrong. Ditto for the gloomy predictions of Oppenheimer & Co. analyst Meredith Whitney, who recently was toasted on the cover of Fortune magazine.

Perhaps the magazine-cover curse will kick in and the attention being tossed at Roubini, profiled last week by the New York Times, and Whitney means the worst really is over. Of course, they might say it's just a matter of public perception catching up with the reality -- a financial system in tatters.

Subprime System

One reason to think Roubini won't be proven wrong is his argument that the problem isn't the subprime mortgage market -- it's a subprime U.S. financial system. Fixing the problems sending financial contagion around the globe will require tough decisions in Washington and reforms in Wall Street's securitization system. And that's hardly happening.

How far Wall Street's reputation has fallen since the collapse of Bear Stearns Cos. was revealed by the Aiful Corp. saga. Japan's biggest consumer lender by assets threatened to sue Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. in June after analyst Walter Altherr called Aiful ``arguably insolvent'' in a report.

Lehman retracted the report earlier this month, yet not before Japan's investment community had a good chuckle. The fourth-largest U.S. securities firm, with a share price down 79 percent this year, calling another institution shaky? Talk about the proverbial pot calling the kettle black.

`Muddle Along'

Even the best-case scenario for Asia looks gloomy. As analysts like Mark Matthews of Merrill Lynch & Co. in Hong Kong point out, the next few years will see Asia-Pacific markets excluding Japan ``muddle along.'' Wasn't it just a year ago that investors were claiming Asia had decoupled from the U.S. economy?

The reasons Asia should hope Roubini eats some crow are many.

For one, the region remains too reliant on exports. While Asia made some progress boosting domestic demand, slowing U.S. growth will chip away at living standards from Seoul to Jakarta. For another, emerging markets may slide further if global investors become even more risk adverse.

Mark Mobius, executive chairman of Templeton Asset Management, may indeed be right to call the decline in emerging- market stocks ``overdone.'' Still, a deep recession in the world's biggest economy could accelerate those losses.

Asia central banks amassed trillions of dollars of currency reserves in recent years, a move that won't seem illogical if Roubini is proved correct. That cash will be needed to provide insurance to global investors that the region won't see a repeat of its 1997 crisis.

U.S. Contagion

A decade ago, Asia was exporting financial contagion potent enough to send the Dow Jones Industrial Average down hundreds of points here and there. These days, the U.S. is returning the favor, just as Diwa Guinigundo, deputy governor of the Philippine central bank, predicted to me a year ago. Hats off to Guinigundo; he was absolutely right.

Where do we stand now? ``One year later, in the U.S. the lack of improvement in the money markets is still taking center stage,'' Roubini said yesterday. And the Federal Reserve, on top of cutting its benchmark interest rate 325 basis points, continues to expand its liquidity facilities ``without significant impact on credit creation.''

That's affecting emerging markets. For example, Roubini said, ``the global credit crisis has exacerbated home-grown liquidity squeezes in countries like South Korea.''

The question is how Asia would weather further weakness in the U.S. China's boom has provided some cushion, yet officials in Beijing are busily working to tame inflation. It also would be a mistake to think a U.S. recession won't slam China.

So here's to Roubini for having a good couple of years of economic prognosticating. And here's to hoping he'll be less right in the future. Asia's prosperity may depend on it.

(William Pesek is a Bloomberg News columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.)

To contact the writer of this column: William Pesek in Tokyo at wpesek@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: August 21, 2008 20:23 EDT

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601039&sid=aETnD_QSZYWU&refer=home

this painful ordeal is far from over

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2008/08/18/ccview118.xml The futures market is pricing a 33pc fall in US house prices from peak to trough, based on the Case-Shiller index. Banks have not come close to writing off implied losses on this scale.

Daniel Alpert from Westwood Capital predicts that a mere 28pc fall would alone lead to a $5.4 trillion haircut in US household wealth, and leave lenders nursing $1.25 trillion in losses. So far they have confessed to less than $500bn.

Meredith Whitney, the Oppenheimer's bank Cassandra, predicts a gruesome 40pc fall in prices. If so, expect prime borrowers facing negative equity to start throwing in the towel en masse. "I do not think we are near the end of writedowns. I continue to see capital levels going lower, and stocks going lower," she said.

So no, this painful ordeal is far from over. We are not witnessing a dollar rally so much as a collapse in European and commodity currencies. The race to the bottom has begun in earnest.

Market finally realizes Russia has OIL

Oil Rises More Than $3 on U.S.-Russia Tensions, Dollar Weakness

By Mark Shenk

Aug. 21 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil advanced more than $3 on speculation that rising tensions between the U.S. and Russia may disrupt the flow of oil, and as a weaker dollar bolstered the appeal of commodities.

Russia, which vies with Saudi Arabia as the world's biggest oil producer, criticized U.S. plans for a missile shield in Poland. Russia's invasion of Georgia has cut some export routes for Caspian Sea crude. Oil and gold climbed as the dollar fell to the lowest against the euro in a week.

``The fall of the dollar is sending a huge investor flow into commodities,'' said Gene McGillian, an analyst at TFS Energy LLC in Stamford, Connecticut. ``The tensions between Russia and the West were supposed to be simmering down but they are now ratcheting up because of Poland's agreement with the U.S.''

Crude oil for October delivery rose $3.72, or 3.2 percent, to $119.28 a barrel at 9:10 a.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Futures are down 19 percent from a record $147.27 reached on July 11. Prices are up 71 percent from a year ago.

Brent crude oil for October settlement rose $3.48, or 3 percent, to $117.84 a barrel on London's ICE Futures Europe exchange.

``The dollar has been the big driver of both the rally and the pullback,'' said Kevin Kerr, president of Kerr Trading International in Wilton, Connecticut.

The dollar fell 0.3 percent to $1.4796 per euro, from $1.4747, and touched $1.4833, the weakest since Aug. 14.

``The hope was that Russia's fields would be developed and the barrels made available,'' Kerr said. ``If you are a multinational, you are already afraid of nationalization of your assets. Now, with the recent problems between Russia and its neighbors, nobody is going to invest there.''

Foreign Control

TNK-BP, a 50-50 venture between BP Plc and a group of billionaires known collectively as AAR, is embroiled in a dispute over strategy and management. BP, which relies on the company for almost a quarter of its output, is struggling to maintain control amid pressure on foreign employees.

U.S. gasoline supplies fell 6.2 million barrels last week, the U.S. Energy Department said in a report yesterday, more than double analysts' predictions. Crude-oil stockpiles rose 9.39 million barrels to 305.9 million barrels, the biggest gain since March 2001, the report showed. Stockpiles fell the previous week when Tropical Storm Edouard hit Texas.

Fuel Production

Refineries operated at 85.7 percent of capacity in the week ended Aug. 15, down 0.2 percentage point from the week before and the lowest since the week ended May 2, the report showed.

``The market shrugged off the big crude build because they attributed it to delayed imports that couldn't arrive during the week of Edouard,'' McGillian said. ``More attention was paid to the drop in gasoline stocks and refinery runs. If refiners continue to operate at this level we won't be able to build product inventories.''

Gasoline for September delivery rose 8.78 cents, or 3 percent, to $2.9981 a gallon in New York. Futures reached a record $3.631 a gallon on July 11.

Pump prices haven't increased since July 19, according to the AAA, the nation's largest motorist organization. Regular gasoline, averaged nationwide, fell 1.5 cents to $3.702 a gallon, the AAA said today on its Web site. Prices reached a record $4.114 a gallon on July 17.

To contact the reporter on this story: Mark Shenk in New York at mshenk1@bloomberg.net.

Last Updated: August 21, 2008 09:41 EDT

Will EURO survive a Russian invasion?

It is by no means certain whether the EU and the European Monetary Union will even be able to survive the currently detonating financial crisis. And there ought to be an investigation into whether the European Central Bank's incessant injections of liquidity into foundering Spanish banks—which German taxpayers, too, will ultimately have to foot the bill for—is consistent with the ECB's own statutes, which assert that it neither desires, nor is permitted to become a "lender of last resort."

http://www.larouchepub.com/hzl/2008/3533rus_enemy_partner.html

WASHINGTON DC- The Bush administration appears to have pulled off its latest military fiasco in the Caucasus. What was supposed to have been a swiftly and painless takeover of rebellious South Ossetia by America's favourite new ally, Georgia, has turned into a disaster that left Georgia battered, Russia enraged, and NATO badly demoralized. Not bad for two days work.    http://www.ericmargolis.com/archives/2008/08/crisis_in_the_c.php

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/08/20/world/europe/20diplo.html?hp

The stupid party suggests war with Russia – how long before USD is affected?

Stuart Mill, called his conservative party, the Republican Party, "the stupid party."    http://www.aljazeera.com/news/newsfull.php?newid=150105

George Bush said earlier this month that "the age of spheres of influence is over". In that case why push that most potent sphere of influence, Nato, to the Russian border? And what of the sphere-of-influence theory that underpinned Bush's neoconservative plan to conquer the Muslim world for democracy?    http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2008/aug/20/nato.usforeignpolicy

http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2008/08/caucuses.html/print.html     Russia has claimed control of this area for most of the past two centuries despite the very steep price required for that control. From 1804 to 1813, Russia battled Persia for control over the South Caucasus in a war that ended at Lenkoran

Credit crunch may take out large US bank warns former IMF chief

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/banking_and_finance/article4563171.ece
The deepening toll from the global financial crisis could trigger the failure of a large US bank within months, a respected former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund claimed today, fuelling another battering for banking shares.

Professor Kenneth Rogoff, a leading academic economist, said there was yet worse news to come from the worldwide credit crunch and financial turmoil, particularly in the United States, and that a high-profile casualty among American banks was highly likely.

"The US is not out of the woods. I think the financial crisis is at the halfway point, perhaps. I would even go further to say the worst is to come," Prof Rogoff said at a conference in Singapore.

In an ominous warning, he added: "We're not just going to see mid-sized banks go under in the next few months, we're going to see a whopper, we're going to see a big one — one of the big investment banks or big banks," he said.

What can the fed do

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a0v71H6gketc&refer=home Aug. 18 (Bloomberg) -- Ben S. Bernanke is still trying to define which financial institutions it's safe to let fail. The longer it takes him to decide, the tougher the decision becomes.

In the year since credit markets seized up, the 54-year- old Federal Reserve chairman has repeatedly expanded the central bank's protective role, turning its balance sheet into a parking lot for Wall Street's hard-to-finance bonds and offering loans through its discount window to investment banks and mortgage firms Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

EES - What Russian war means for the Euro

The conflict in Georgia is greatly affecting the Euro across the board. What does this all mean, and where should investors go?

FX is extremely sensitive to politics, because a shift in a domestic political system can be directly connected to a currency's value. For example, the Chinese government announcement that the Yuan would float, albeit a 'soft peg' to the USD, shattered the relationship between a previously pegged Yuan and the USD. Many watching the situation in Georgia are unaware how this impacts them, and how it impacts FX. Also, this war, like many wars, is an information war, and the media spin leaves viewers with a less than accurate picture of reality.

The strength of the Euro over the past 5 years has been in part, not European strength as much as American weakness. A combination of economic factors in the US has made investors fear the USD and purchase non-USD based assets in Euros and other foreign currencies. Also, the Fed has been lowering US interest rates to a finally negative real interest rate.

The recent strength in the USD is not USD strength per se, but Euro weakness. The fear is that Europe will be involved in a war with Russia, and energy will be involved. Russia supplies 25% of the EU's energy needs and over 50% to many Eastern European states, and the EU is Russia's largest trading partner, totaling $285 Billion.

Immediately after the 4% drop in the Euro in 2 days, Bank of America issued a warning to its' customers summarizing the situation that, although the USD is showing signs of recovery, a war in Europe does not solve the fundamentally flawed US economy, and they expect further USD weakness.

Russia's involvement in Europe is not only energy. The US has planned military bases in many eastern-bloc countries, one of which has been signed during the crisis in Georgia.

One problem with Europeans is they cannot agree. This is what makes Europe charming and culture-rich but politically complex. USA is a 'melting-pot' which has become a mono-culture based on corporatism, while American's argue their thinking lies in the same direction. Since the US Civil war, US mono-culture has solidified the mainstream in a view that always agrees on some tenets, this is not the case in Europe. Entry into the EU and the Euro passed referendum in many EU states by thin margins, there are those who would like to revert back to national currencies.

One main difference between the Euro and other currencies: the Euro does not have a government behind it. Individual EU states retain their sovereignty, and those states central banks have essentially no power to influence the Euro directly, except for lobbying the ECB. So the Euro is a designer currency hanging on a thin margin, which could be toppled by a severe energy crisis should the situation with Russia escalate. US involvement in Eastern European countries will only increase the chances of Russia's will to turn off the lights.

Russia has already quietly begun selling oil in Rubles, and announced the Ruble is fully convertible (since 2006). While by itself these actions are not market-shattering, combined with the potential conflict in Georgia, and Russia's aggressive policy to capitalize on their vast wealth in natural resources, a situation is brewing in Europe which can be potentially explosive. Any turmoil can be seen as bad for the Euro, regardless of the actual damage done. The disadvantage of Europe is it's history: Europe has been involved in wars and currency devaluations. As poor as the US economic numbers are, the US is involved in foreign wars at its leisure, there is no compelling reason the US should be involved in any war.

Russia can also affect emerging markets which it may be forced to trade with, such as India, China, and Brazil. Russian oil could help a growing Chinese economy and decrease Russia's dependence on European customers. In a complex environment a static forecast is not possible, but it is clear any instability or even the perception of instability close to Europe will be negative for the Euro. Elite E Services believes the next bubble to pop will be the Euro bubble.

Long term, this is a buying opportunity for hard commodities such as Wheat, Swiss Francs, Oil, and Gold. Whatever happens in this war, the supply side in the Oil market is controlled by unfriendly countries such as Venezuela and Iran. If Russia is now added to the list of unfriendly countries, we can expect Oil to increase long term, as Russia will use this as a bargaining chip in any negotiations.

This move has been excellent for CTA's trading momentum and trend-based strategies. For short term gains in the FX or Commodities markets, investors can seek CTA's with established track records or automated trading systems, which are performing very well in environments like this. In fact, desynchronized markets are ideal for systems that monitor and analyze discreet price data vs. fundamentals.

Elite E Services is a registered CTA with the CFTC and NFA Member (#373609). eliteeservices.net