Inside Details of Sequoia Capital’s Doomsday Meeting With its Companies

http://gigaom.com/2008/10/09/what-startups-can-learn-from-sequoias-doomsday-warning/

Inside Details of Sequoia Capital's Doomsday Meeting With its Companies

Om Malik

, Thursday, October 9, 2008 at 11:27 AM PT Comments (68)

Updated with the Sequoia powerpoint: Last night I reported on a special meeting held by Sequoia Capital for its portfolio companies, warning them about the fiscal hurricane that was going to hit them, and how they'd better figure out ways to survive what could be a big downturn.

There were some gaps in the details about that meeting, but I have since been able to piece together the minutes and what folks there essentially said. Since these are second-sourced details, I cannot say they are a 100 percent accurate, so please view them with a degree of skepticism. Nevertheless, I still feel confident enough to share them.

These were the four speakers:

Mike Moritz, General Partner, Sequoia Capital, who moderated the speakers. The speakers were Eric Upin, Partner, Sequoia Capital, who until recently ran the $26-billion Stanford Endowment Fund, and Michael Partner, Sequoia Capital, who was Sequoia's very first hedge fund manager and worked at Maverick Capital and Robertson Stephens. The last speaker was, as I mentioned before, Doug Leone, General Partner, Sequoia Capital.

Moritz Musings

Mike Mortiz kicked off the proceedings by saying that these are drastic times and that means drastic measures must be taken to survive. His message to companies was don't worry about getting ahead, instead, "We're talking survive. Get this point into your heads." He warned that companies need to be cash-flow positive, and if they are not, then they need to get there now, because raising capital without being cash-flow positive is going to be tough. He was warning that there will be a price to pay for those who hesitate to act.

Upin Says

Upin, who knows a thing or two about money and markets, told the room that we are in the beginning of a long cycle, what he called a "secular bear market." This could be a 15-year problem, he said. This comment was accompanied by many slides that showed historical charts of previous recessions averaging 17-year cycles. He pointed out that the issue here is not the equity markets but the credit market, and that will take a long time to recover. He was ominous in warning the startups that this is a global issue, it is not a normal time, and is a significant risk not just to growth but to personal wealth.

He advised startups to make drastic changes, to cut expenses and to cut deep, but to still keep marching. "You can't be a general if you turn back," he apparently said. The point he hammered on was that since you can't manage the economy, manage everything else, including your business. He had some interesting advice for startups.

• Cut spending. Cut fat. Preserve capital.
  
• Throw out the models and spreadsheets, because all assumptions will be wrong.
  
• Focus on quality.
  
• Reduce risk.
  

Michael Beckwith

Michael Beckwith's presentation had lots of charts and data and he pointed out that the V-shaped recovery is unlikely. He also said that the cuts in spending will accelerate in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of 2009, and pointed to eBay as an example.

Leone's lessons

Doug Leone told the group that this downturn was a different animal and one from which it would take "years to recover." He was clear in pointing out that:

• Unprofitable companies would have a tough time raising cash, so get cash-flow positive as soon as possible.
  
• Go on the offensive and pound on your competitors' shortcomings.
  
• Be aggressive with your messaging and be out there. In a downturn, aggressive PR and communications strategy is key.
  
• Decline in M&A will mean that only lean companies with sales models that work will get bought.
  
• When it comes to deciding between capital preservation and grabbing market share, he advised that everyone should be preserving capital.
  

Leone's other tips for companies, especially the Sequoia portfolio companies, were something like this:

• Start with zero-based budgeting.
  
• Cutting deeper is the formula to survive, and this is an era of survival of the quickest.
  
• Make sure you have one year's worth of cash.
  
• If you have a product, reduce expenses around it and boost sales. If the product is ready, cut the number of engineers.
  
• Focus on building the absolutely essential features in your product.
  
• Be brutal when it comes to marketing — anything that isn't working, cut it.
  
• Don't burn through your cash, for cash is king.
  
• Cut base salaries on sales people and leverage them with upside.
  
• Most importantly, be true to yourself.
  

Liquidity Troubles, Volatility Bedevil Currency Markets

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122398875123732433.html Liquidity Troubles, Volatility Bedevil Currency Markets     

We begin by pointing out the obvious. A bounce in a bear market does not give cause for celebration. It gives cause for selling. Sell the rallies, buy the dips. Buy low, sell high, in other words. We're selling stocks, generally. And this bounce is a good occasion to do so…because we think this market could go a lot lower. Dow 5,000 is our target. When the Dow gets below 5,000 we might be tempted to buy. Until then, it's sell…sell…sell...... http://www.dailyreckoning.com/

State-controlled enerprises, the present owners and creditors of which will receive income bonds . . . . There is no real difference between being a yes-man official of a billion dollar bank and being an official of a State bureaucracy . . ."

From the pro-fascist American author Lawrence Dennis, in his 1936 book, The Coming American Fasicsm, p. 176, in the chapter entitled "Why Fascism Instead of Communism?".    http://www.lewrockwell.com/blog/lewrw/archives/023506.html

Perhaps the time for self-delusion is passed. The grand new plan, just replaced the $700 billion plan, that replaced the $80 billion plan to bail out AIG, that replaced the Bear Stearns bailout which was just pocket change.

Forgive me for being skittish but it seems like every time you blink the number goes up by a factor of ten. The way it looks now is that combined USA , Europe and UK , the damage could easily be $7 trillion. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article6811.html

Fed announces unlimited supply of Dollars

http://money.cnn.com/2008/10/13/news/economy/central_banks_dollar_funds/?postversion=2008101309 NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- The Federal Reserve announced Monday it will offer an unlimited amount of dollars to three other central banks in an unprecedented move to provide liquidity to the global banking system.

You say the dollar has been soaring recently? Well, yes, it has. But that doesn't mean it is worth anything. In fact, the dollar is valueless, and the $1 bills in your wallet are worth no more intrinscially than the $100 bills. Those who do not understand why this is so or who would argue otherwise are simply ignorant or delusional. As we explained here a couple of weeks ago, the dollar is rallying because it is caught in a short squeeze. Short-term borrowers, unable to keep rolling their loans, have been forced to settle up in cash. This has created a made scramble for cash dollars, as opposed to credit dollars. And although the Fed has attempted to keep the system liquid with unprecedented infusions of new cash, the amounts pale in comparison to a global financial deflation that has already caused tens of trillions of dollars worth of financial and real estate assets to vanish from the economy.    http://news.goldseek.com/RickAckerman/1223913742.php

There are no attractive options, but compulsory adjustment might not be the most unattractive option. If it worked, it might at least offer greater certainty. Already US Treasury bond yields are RISING as the market fears a future flood of issuance and holders scramble for cash. The other alternative, of course, is a big burst of inflation to erode the real value of the claims surreptitiously, and offer debtors relief.

Inflation has been the solution to widespread over-indebtedness in the past for many countries. But even if the Fed COULD generate inflation amid a contracting economy, that would simply expropriate creditors in a different fashion.    http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2008/10/12/16931/kemp-the-united-states-is-now-in-some-very-general-sense-bankrupt/

Tobin tax on FX?

Finally, instead of tax incentives and tax cuts many see that what is desperately needed at this point in time is the introduction of a new tax. This tax would be a tax on investments, akin to the Tobin tax. The Tobin tax is the suggested tax on all trade of currency across borders. Named after the economist James Tobin, the tax is intended to put a penalty on short-term speculation in currencies. The original tax rate he proposed was 1%, which was subsequently lowered to between 0.1% and 0.25%. http://www.heise.de/tp/r4/artikel/28/28896/1.html

In a sign of how worried companies have become about getting credit, General Electric Co (GE.N: Quote) considered seeking a bank charter that would give it access to government lending channels, sources familiar with the company's thinking told Reuters last week. http://ca.reuters.com/article/businessNews/idCATRE49B30P20081012?sp=true

Now we are starting to get anecdotal evidence that this extremely vital market is also freezing up. If you think the problems stemming from a meltdown with the commercial paper markets are threatening to the world economy, they are small potatoes when compared to a seizure in the letter of credit markets..... "'There are all kinds of stuff stacked up on docks right now that can't be shipped because people can't get letters of credit,' said Bill Gary, president of Commodity Information Systems in Oklahoma City. 'The problem is not demand, and it's not supply because we have plenty of supply. It's finding anyone who can come up with the credit to buy.'...... That means he can't ship goods, which means that within the next 2 weeks, physical shortages of commodities begin to show up. THE CENTRAL BANKS CAN'T LET THAT HAPPEN OR WE HAVE NO ECONOMY, LET ALONE A CREDIT SYSTEM."..... http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article6745.html

http://www.worldnetdaily.com/index.php?fa=PAGE.view&pageId=77687 China stiffing America for $100 billion in debt

Yet U.S. taxpayers helping Beijing as part of trillion-$ credit bailout

Dow drops 600 points at open

DOW DROPS 600+ AT OPEN; OFF LOWS...

EUROPE STOCK ROUT...
London shares bloodbath...
Carter slams Bush on market crisis...
WASH POST: The End Of American Capitalism?

Big discounts fail to lure shoppers and other articles

"In 2005, my wife and I retired," Carl says. "We went to a Merrill Lynch financial advisor and had about $200,000 to put away for our retirement. We told them at the time that this was all the money we had for retirement and we wanted it to be secure. We didn't want risk. ... http://www.lawyersandsettlements.com/articles/11343/stock-market-losses-3.html

"Big discounts fail to lure shoppers," reports the Wall Street Journal . Restaurants are empty. Shopping malls are not even attracting strollers and gawkers – let alone people with money to spend. Auto lots are so quiet the salesmen take turns pretending to be customers – just to keep their skills at-the-ready. Even the private jet business is in a tailspin." (The Daily Reckoning)    http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article6710.html

The US and advanced economies' financial system is now headed towards a near-term systemic financial meltdown as day after day stock markets are in free fall, money markets have shut down while their spreads are skyrocketing, and credit spreads are surging through the roof. There is now the beginning of a generalized run on the banking system of these economies; a collapse of the shadow banking system, i.e. those non-banks (broker dealers, non-bank mortgage lenders, SIV and conduits, hedge funds, money market funds, private equity firms) that, like banks, borrow short and liquid, are highly leveraged and lend and invest long and illiquid and are thus at risk of a run on their short-term liabilities; and now a roll-off of the short term liabilities of the corporate sectors that may lead to widespread bankruptcies of solvent but illiquid financial and non-financial firms.

On the real economic side all the advanced economies representing 55% of global GDP (US, Eurozone, UK, other smaller European countries, Canada, Japan, Australia, New Zealand, Japan) entered a recession even before the massive financial shocks that started in the late summer made the liquidity and credit crunch even more virulent and will thus cause an even more severe recession than the one that started in the spring. So we have a severe recession, a severe financial crisis and a severe banking crisis in advanced economies.

http://www.rgemonitor.com/roubini-monitor/253973/the_world_is_at_severe_risk_of_a_global_systemic_financial_meltdown_and_a_severe_global_depression

We are in the midst of an unfolding debacle. It is happening about us. I am not sure how or when it ends, but the end, when it arrives, will radically alter the way we live for a long time.

Whoever wins the US election and takes office in January will need prayers and divine intervention.    http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/10/dow-tanks-680-to-below-9000-investors.html

This article by Stratfor founder and Chief Intelligence Officer George Friedman accompanies an upcoming series on the geopolitics of the global financial crisis. Here, he discusses Stratfor's geopolitical method for analyzing economic issues, which has a different focus and purpose from the models used by economists.    http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20081009_international_economic_crisis_and_stratfors_method

Canada's Banking System World's Soundest http://www.shortnews.com/start.cfm?id=73925

Roubini: At this point severe damage is done and one cannot rule out a systemic collapse and a global depression. It will take a significant change in leadership of economic policy and very radical, coordinated policy actions among all advanced and emerging market economies to avoid this economic and financial disaster. Urgent and immediate necessary actions that need to be done globally include:
1) another rapid round of policy rate cuts of the order of at least 150 basis points on average globally;
2) a temporary blanket guarantee of all deposits while a triage between insolvent financial institutions that need to be shut down and distressed but solvent institutions that need to be partially nationalized with injections of public capital is made;
3) a rapid reduction of the debt burden of insolvent households preceded by a temporary freeze on all foreclosures;
4) massive and unlimited provision of liquidity to solvent financial institutions;
5) public provision of credit to the solvent parts of the corporate sector to avoid a short-term debt refinancing crisis for solvent but illiquid corporations and small businesses;
6) a massive direct government fiscal stimulus packages that includes public works, infrastructure spending, unemployment benefits, tax rebates to lower income households and provision of grants to strapped and crunched state and local government;
7) a rapid resolution of the banking problems via triage, public recapitalization of financial institutions and reduction of the debt burden of distressed households and borrowers;
8) an agreement between lender and creditor countries running current account surpluses and borrowing and debtor countries running current account deficits to maintain an orderly financing of deficits and a recycling of the surpluses of creditors to avoid a disorderly adjustment of such imbalances.

U.S. President George Bush will take the unusual step of meeting at the White House on Oct 11 with G-7 finance ministers and the heads of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank. 

Current EU President Sarkozy: ``Only coordinated action by central banks and governments is able to stop the systemic risk and ensure the financing of economies,'' said Sarkozy, who now holds the EU's rotating presidency. 

IMF Global Financial Stability Report, October 2008 (GFSR):

- total U.S.-originated assets loss estimate increased to $1.4 trillion, an increase April number of $945bn;
- over the next few years, five years, around $675 billion of additional capital is needed to keep credit growing, even modestly, in the face of the current shocks [as of October, global bank writedowns have reached $592bn vs. $442bn fresh capital raised of which in the U.S. $340bn ($245bn), and Europe $227bn ($175bn) and Asia $25bn($23bn)]
- the restoration of financial stability requires a decisive and internationally coherent set of policies in 3 areas: 1) strengthening the capital base of viable institutions, 2)  buttressing troubled assets by using public sector balance sheets; and 3) improving funding availability, mainly term funding, to stabilize bank balance sheets.
- orderly resolution of nonviable financial institutions;
- reduce counterparty risks through centralized clearing organizations
--> The most significant risk remains a worsening of the adverse feedback loop between the financial system and the real economy.

World Economic Outlook, October 2008:

- global response needed to global problem;
- The IMF now expects the world economy to grow 3.9% pace in 2008, down from the last estimate of 4.1% in July. It also cut expected 2009 growth from 3.9% to 3%, which would be the weakest level since 2002;
- effects of rate cuts are limited in the current crisis (i.e. pushing on a string). Monetary policy needs to be combined with fiscal policy.
- The U.S. 2008 forecast edged up to 1.6% from 1.3% in July. However, the U.S. economy is expected to contract in the fourth quarter of 2008 and early 2009, prompting the fund to downgrade next year's growth estimate to 0.1% from 0.8%. A U.S. recovery is expected to begin in the second half of next year as housing prices bottom out.
- IMF expects a "a significant slowdown in activity across western Europe followed by a very gradual recovery beginning in the second half of 2009.". The 2008 forecast for euro-zone growth was cut to 1.3% from 1.7% in July, and to 0.2% from 1.2% in 2009. Italy's economy is expected to contract this year, and it will be joined by Spain in 2009
- The U.K. economy is also expected to go from 1.0% growth in 2008 to a 0.1% contraction next year.
- the 2008 forecast for Japan was cut to 0.7% from 1.5% in July, with the 2009 estimate lowered to 0.5% from 1.5%. Canada's 2008 estimate was cut to 0.7% from 1.0%, and its 2009 forecast fell to 1.2% from 1.9%.
- Emerging and developing economies as a whole are still expected to expand at a solid 6.9% clip this year, though the IMF trimmed its 2009 forecast to 6.1% from 6.7%.

Police will not enforce foreclosures in Chicago area

http://apnews.myway.com/article/20081008/D93MFL900.html CHICAGO (AP) - Residents of foreclosed properties in Chicago and other parts of Cook County don't have to worry about deputies forcing them out. Sheriff Tom Dart says that starting Thursday his office won't take part in evictions.

Dart says he's concerned that many of the people being evicted are renters who were unaware that their landlords have been failing to pay their mortgages. He says his deputies have no way of knowing whether they're removing someone who has defaulted on a loan or someone who has been faithfully paying rent.

Dart says he thinks he's the first sheriff in a major metropolitan area to stop such evictions during the ongoing foreclosure crisis.

Dart says the number of mortgage foreclosures in Cook County has skyrocketed and will probably keep rising.

Will the Bretton Woods 2 (BW2) Regime Collapse Like the Original

The principal technique employed in the US is to get people so busy that they don't have time to think about anything, and it is important to remember that with one person, one vote, this doesn't have to be everyone, just the majority.    http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article6654.html

For these reasons it is thought wise to have some cash stashed away and a supply of tradable gold and silver in a safe place or safe places.

Soon we will consider the likely impact of all this on gold and silver prices, both on the paper prices and on the prices for real physical gold and silver that you can hold in your hand, and consider the merits of gold and silver versus gold and silver stocks. Another subject we will turn our attention to is measures to improve security in conditions of anarchy or near anarchy.

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/10/roubini-fed-fiddles-while-rome-burns.html

This is indeed a cardiac arrest for the shadow and non-shadow banking system and for the system of financing of the corporate sector. The shutdown of financing for the corporate system is particularly scary: solvent but illiquid corporations that cannot roll over their maturing debt may now face massive defaults due to this illiquidity. And if the financing of the corporate sectors shuts down and remains shut down the risk of an economic collapse similar to the Great Depression becomes highly likely....

http://www.peakoil.com/survey219-results.html

http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2008/10/06/the-damage-spreads/

Central banks meanwhile keep trumping themselves over who will create more money without a correspondent value. But the pinstriped inflationistas have only a single strong card left in their hands. It is the card of public ignorance and the blessing that nobody can remember the last period of hyper-inflation.....    http://seekingalpha.com/article/98732-monetary-madness-global-margin-call-underway

* The Federal Reserve is bankrupt. The U.S. Treasury Department quietly rescued — actually, took over — the world's largest Central Bank on September 17.

* The idea that Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke could fly his helicopter was a fraud; the Fed simply didn't have any helicopter fuel.

* The U.S. Treasury Department, on the other hand, has copious amounts of helicopter fuel in the form of undiscounted government debt, and this fuel has now been made available to Mr. Bernanke. The more fuel the Treasury provides, the closer the U.S. dollar will get to its death.

* Just released Fed data confirms that initial test flights of Ben's helicopter have been spectacularly successful. Up to $150 billion has been loaded on the helicopter so far and may already be fluttering down into the Monetary Base as I write this. The inflation of "high power" money by more than 15% in the course of 2 weeks (an annual rate of 300% or more) is unprecedented.

* Inflation of the Monetary Base is leveraged by fractional reserve lending. Should the banks actually start to lend again, we could very well see hyperinflation in the U.S. over the next 18 months.      * The Federal Reserve is bankrupt. The U.S. Treasury Department quietly rescued — actually, took over — the world's largest Central Bank on September 17.

* The idea that Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke could fly his helicopter was a fraud; the Fed simply didn't have any helicopter fuel.

* The U.S. Treasury Department, on the other hand, has copious amounts of helicopter fuel in the form of undiscounted government debt, and this fuel has now been made available to Mr. Bernanke. The more fuel the Treasury provides, the closer the U.S. dollar will get to its death.

* Just released Fed data confirms that initial test flights of Ben's helicopter have been spectacularly successful. Up to $150 billion has been loaded on the helicopter so far and may already be fluttering down into the Monetary Base as I write this. The inflation of "high power" money by more than 15% in the course of 2 weeks (an annual rate of 300% or more) is unprecedented.

* Inflation of the Monetary Base is leveraged by fractional reserve lending. Should the banks actually start to lend again, we could very well see hyperinflation in the U.S. over the next 18 months. http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1223400153.php

The increase in the size of the Term Auction Facility, from $150 billion a month ($75 billion per two 28 day auction) as of its last auction to $900 billion today (with an interim plan to go to $450 billion that was blown past in this announcement) is an admission that the banking system is not functioning. The size of the TAF, a single facility, now exceeds that of the Fed's entire recent balance sheet size.    http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/10/term-auction-facility-increased-to-900.html

Many of us in the US are focused on our own woes. But this is a global credit crisis. In today's Outside the Box, we take a look at the currency markets, which are in an historic upheaval and also look at what is going on in Europe. I suspect that Europe is in for a period of much distress, as the world begins to deleverage That is why one government after another will back the deposits of banks within their countries, for otherwise capital will flee to countries like Ireland and Germany which ARE guaranteeing the deposits for all banks in their borders. . Many European banks are leveraged 50 to 1 (not a misprint). I suspect that more government will do like Belgium and the Netherlands and inject capital directly into their local banks deemed too big to fail.    http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article6659.html

Thus to begin, we say here this morning, mincing no words whatsoever, we are more frightened now for the future of the global capital markets than we have been at any time in our thirty+ years of watching, commenting upon and taking part in them. We are fearful... and we mean this fully... that we have passed the tipping point; that things are now spinning out of control; that forces have been unleashed that cannot be stopped without some truly massive, truly strong-handed, governmental action including the closure of markets and limits upon bank withdrawals, et al. These are troubling times, and our fear is palpable and growing. Worse, these concerns are giving rise to the likelihood that the Left shall be in ascension, and that manifestly left-of-centre, interventionist government lies ahead here in the US and in Europe. Higher, rather than lower taxes will be the end result. Greater... indeed very much greater... intervention in the capital markets lies ahead. Trade and act accordingly.

"If money isn't loosened up," warned the president during negotiations on the bill, "this sucker could go down." (DRUNK) One wonders how much our prospects have improved now that the money has been loosened up, i.e., whether or not "this sucker" might go down anyway.    http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article6652.html

http://www.financialarmageddon.com/     

In addition, household net worth, which greases spending, fell $6 trillion over the last year, with $1 trillion of that in just the last four weeks, said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Economy.com.

For instance, a report last year from consulting firm Greenwich Associates found that hedge funds were responsible for nearly 30% of all fixed-income trading in the U.S. That market, and others, could take a hit as hedge funds shrink, said Mr. Nichter.

Will the Bretton Woods 2 (BW2) Regime Collapse Like the Original

Bretton Woods Regime Did? The Coming End Game of BW2

by Nouriel Roubini,

July 6, 2008    http://www.rgemonitor.com/redir.php?sid=1&cid=271999&tgid=0

"Continuity of Government" (COG) Provisions activated in 2001 http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=10473

"I still don't believe the dollar can maintain this strength going forward, as the funding requirements on the deficit continues to be the Sword of Damocles hanging over the dollar. But for now… I have to go to the corner and sit…"    http://www.dailyreckoning.com/Writers/Butler/Articles/100608.html

When the dollar can rally in the face of news like it received on Friday, even me, the biggest fundamental trader you've ever seen, can see the writing on the wall… This dollar rally goes against everything I've ever known or studied regarding fundamentals. I still don't believe the dollar can maintain this strength going forward, as the funding requirements on the deficit continues to be the Sword of Damocles hanging over the dollar. But for now… I have to go to the corner and sit, for I have been wrong about how the dollar would react to all of this.

Pimco's Bill Gross has out his latest missive, and if recent history is any evidence then it has a solid change of being causal, as opposed to being merely predictive. The key part is this:

A systemic delevering likely requires a systemic solution, which moves beyond cyclical interest rate cuts, liquidity provisions, or even the purchase of subprime mortgage-backed bonds. We believe that the Federal Reserve must now act as a clearing house, guaranteeing that institutional transactions clear (and investors receive) their Big Macs at the second window. They must also take another bold step: outright purchases of commercial paper. They should also cut interest rates to 1%, because we are experiencing asset deflation, and the threat of headline inflation is long past. [Emphase mine]

http://seekingalpha.com/article/98750-bill-gross-says-jump-will-the-fed-once-again-say-how-high

Where are the Masters of the Universe now?

Where are the Masters of the Universe now? As the financial tsunami rolls out across the world, crushing seemingly invincible institutions in its path and threatening the livelihoods of millions, the blame game has begun.

But there's a problem. The most obvious candidates for pillorying have disappeared. Lehman Brothers and Bear Stearns have gone up in smoke. Merrill Lynch has been consumed. Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs have been turned into high street banks, the kind with plastic pot plants in the corner and bowls of sweets to entice the kids. In short: how can you vent your spleen at a ghost? As Bill Clinton, out on the campaign trail for Barack Obama this week, summed up the conundrum: "The Wall Street you are mad at doesn't exist anymore. It vanished." http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2008/oct/04/useconomy.usa/print

The bravest decision he took was in 1995, following the collapse of Barings Bank, as he explained in The Prospect:

I am a 47-year-old banker - chief executive of Swiss Bank Corporation in London, to be precise - and I have just decided that I need to go back to university for two years to study mathematics. Some of my friends think I am mad, and perhaps they are right. But perhaps something strange has happened to banking too.

It is hard to imagine that there is anything really new in banking. The tools of the trade have been around and in use, pretty much unchanged, for hundreds of years. Yet within the span of my own career, the world of international finance has enjoyed a renaissance-a spurt of creativity in the 1970s and 1980s, when new techniques emerged which have transformed the conduct of many banks and bankers. These techniques-collectively known as derivatives-have spawned a new jargon (would you know what to do with a Jellyroll, or an Alligator Spread?), huge new sources of profit, and mystifying new types of risk.

Imagine devoting yourself to the study of advanced mathematics in your mid-40s from the lofty heights of CEO of a Swiss bank! I wouldn't be so noble, from more modest altitudes.    http://www.rgemonitor.com/financemarkets-monitor/253763/learning_from_rudi_bogni_the_thin_space_of_financial_activity

Hypo Real Estate on the verge of Collapse, Europe’s biggest non-deposit bank

The euro is in serious trouble with this Hypo Real Estate collapse. Germans remain completely in denial. The French get it, largely because their clever finance minister, Christine LaGarde, was educated at the University of Chicago and consequently understands something about markets. Sarkozy, to his credit, appears to be listening to her. The Germans are about to destroy EMU with their pigheadedness, and this will be the stuff of revolution, given that the German people were never consulted on abandoning the DM (if there had been a referendum, the euro would have never been accepted in Germany) and were forced to get rid of arguably the most successful post-war monetary institution, the Bundesbank.    http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/10/hypo-bank-rescue-fails-threatening.html

ALERT - Pressure was mounting on Gordon Brown tonight to put unlimited guarantees on British savings after Germany became the third European country to make the drastic move. http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1069132/Pressure-mounts-Brown-protect-ALL-bank-savings-Germany-promises-cast-iron-guarantee.html

Consumer will change his behavior

Foreclosures, bank failures, layoffs and bailouts may dominate the headlines. But the decisions that will make or break the economy won't be made on Wall Street but on your street, where American consumers contribute 70 cents of every dollar spent in the U.S. economy........ Of course spending hasn't stopped. People may even indulge their tastes for luxury, Rist said, but where and how they spend has changed. Instead of dinner at a fine restaurant, they might cook a candlelit dinner at home. Or if they shop for a couch, they'll do more research and perhaps even spend more, to buy a quality product for the reassurance of value.

Rist said impulse buying and conspicuous consumption are out - at least for now.

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2008/10/05/MNAM13B0M4.DTL&type=printable

Nathan also wanted to know if the US needed loans from foreign governments to finance the splurge and our ongoing budget deficits. And he wondered if America's government was still AAA credit. I've been wondering that myself. But it was eye opening to be asked that from a journalist from one of America's strongest allies. If the Israelis are wondering if our country's credit is any good, what are the Chinese and the Sultans thinking?    http://seekingalpha.com/article/98560-america-needs-a-turnaround-plan?source=headline1

Will the rescue plan now pending in Congress solve the crisis? "My answer is no," Eichengreen said. "It is best seen as a holding action. We have had a year of holding actions so far where the Federal Reserve has flooded the markets with liquidity and that hasn't solved the problem. The credit markets have shut down. The commercial paper market has imploded; inner bank markets have disappeared; companies are meeting their payrolls by charging their credit cards ... Maybe TARP (troubled asset rescue plan) gives Treasury the wiggle room to surreptitiously do what is necessary - recapitalize the banking system by paying too much. It would be better to be up front about what they're doing. I think there will have to be a Plan B."    http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2008/10/03/BUFU13AJK4.DTL&type=printable

Market crisis deepens

"Cutting short rates as close to zero as possible," writes Ian Shepherdson of High Frequency Economics in a note to clients today, "is a key ingredient of the policy mix required to prevent a pre-depression economy becoming a real depression economy."    http://seekingalpha.com/article/98459-the-die-is-cast?source=headline1

On addition to the package this time is the expansion of deposit insurance coverage. It increases the coverage limit of deposit insurance from $100,000 to $250,000, and allows FDIC to request the government to cover unlimited amount of losses. The protection of bank liabilities is another tried and failed policy to deal with the financial crises in many countries.    http://www.rgemonitor.com/asia-monitor/253848/will_expanding_deposit_insurance_coverage_prevent_bank_runs

You see folks; as Mr. Rubin was well aware, the federal trust funds DO NOT AND NEVER DID CONTAIN ANY MONEY . These accounts exist in the minds of accountants and lawyers [ledgerdom] only. So here's what was going on:....    http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article6619.html

University payrolls affected

In a move suggesting how the credit crisis could disrupt American higher education, Wachovia Bank has limited the access of nearly 1,000 colleges to $9.3 billion the bank has held for them in a short-term investment fund, raising worries on some campuses about meeting payrolls and other obligations.

Wachovia, the North Carolina bank that agreed this week to sell its banking operations to Citigroup, has held the money in its role as trustee for a fund used by colleges and universities and managed by a Connecticut nonprofit, Commonfund.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/02/education/02college.html?_r=3&oref=slogin&ref=us&pagewanted=print

That brings us to this question: Why would a smart guy like Hank Paulson -- the former boss of Goldman Sachs -- advance such a dumb, shady plan? Let us count the reasons:

No. 1: It delays our national reckoning until after the presidential election.

Paulson first floated a bailout Sept. 18, at the very hour when shares of Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Morgan Stanley looked like they might go into a death spiral. It's not so much a bailout, as it is a timeout. He had to follow up with something, anything, to stop the freefall from resuming. It didn't have to make sense.

So it doesn't. The plan is about creating the illusion of stronger financial institutions, not strengthening them.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601039&sid=aMaWyNFImi4o&refer=homehttp://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601039&sid=aMaWyNFImi4o&refer=home

# High-risk, high-yield loans posted their worst monthly performance on record as prices tumbled to new lows after Lehman filed for bankruptcy: The Standard & Poor's/LSTA Leveraged Loan Index returned a negative 6.15 percent in September, almost double the previous record loss of 3.35 percent set in July 2007. Leveraged loan prices tumbled 8.57 cents in Sept ember to a record low of 79.8 cents on the dollar as financial companies failed and hedge fund managers sold assets anticipating client withdrawals. (CreditSights via Bloomberg)BIS: Defaults on leveraged-buyout loans may rise to 4% this year as firms struggle to refinance about $500 billion of debt used to fund the takeovers--> ``The risk of a significant increase in LBO firm defaults in the next few years may have risen substantially.''     http://www.rgemonitor.com/

Europe debates their own bail out

Nicholas Sarkozy jumps on the TARP bandwagon, and proposes we imitate the US; German finance minister expresses reservations, "to put it mildly"; US Senate approves bailout package; European Commission proposes very strange banking regulation; Moody's cuts Iceland's credit rating on the grounds that Iceland bailed out a bank (just imagine that); a group of well-known European economists, meanwhile, has written an open letter to EU leaders, calling for a systemic response to the crisis. http://www.eurointelligence.com/article.581+M5c2bd56bf51.0.html

$55 Trillion CDS market

http://money.cnn.com/2008/09/30/magazines/fortune/varchaver_derivatives_short.fortune/index.htm?postversion=2008093012 The financial crisis has put a spotlight on the obscure world of credit default swaps - which trade in a vast, unregulated market that most people haven't heard of and even fewer understand. Will this be the next disaster?