http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/01/07/AR2009010703519.html?wprss=rss_business%2Feconomy Currencies including the dollar and the euro have entered a period of extreme volatility that is hindering global commerce and adding further uncertainty to a world economy facing its worst downturn in decades.
Thursday, January 8, 2009
Monday, January 5, 2009
Hedge Fund Manager: Goodbye and F---- You
Hedge Fund Manager: Goodbye and F---- You
From the Scorched Earth Files:
Andrew Lahde, manager of a small California hedge fund, Lahde Capital, burst into the spotlight last year after his one-year-old fund returned 866 percent betting against the subprime collapse.
Last month, he did the unthinkable -- he shut things down, claiming dealing with his bank counterparties had become too risky. Today, Lahde passed along his "goodbye" letter, a rollicking missive on everything from greed to economic philosophy. Enjoy.
Today I write not to gloat. Given the pain that nearly everyone is experiencing, that would be entirely inappropriate. Nor am I writing to make further predictions, as most of my forecasts in previous letters have unfolded or are in the process of unfolding. Instead, I am writing to say goodbye.
Recently, on the front page of Section C of the Wall Street Journal, a hedge fund manager who was also closing up shop (a $300 million fund), was quoted as saying, "What I have learned about the hedge fund business is that I hate it." I could not agree more with that statement. I was in this game for the money. The low hanging fruit, i.e. idiots whose parents paid for prep school, Yale, and then the Harvard MBA, was there for the taking. These people who were (often) truly not worthy of the education they received (or supposedly received) rose to the top of companies such as AIG, Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers and all levels of our government. All of this behavior supporting the Aristocracy, only ended up making it easier for me to find people stupid enough to take the other side of my trades. God bless America.
There are far too many people for me to sincerely thank for my success. However, I do not want to sound like a Hollywood actor accepting an award. The money was reward enough. Furthermore, the endless list those deserving thanks know who they are.
I will no longer manage money for other people or institutions. I have enough of my own wealth to manage. Some people, who think they have arrived at a reasonable estimate of my net worth, might be surprised that I would call it quits with such a small war chest. That is fine; I am content with my rewards. Moreover, I will let others try to amass nine, ten or eleven figure net worths. Meanwhile, their lives suck. Appointments back to back, booked solid for the next three months, they look forward to their two week vacation in January during which they will likely be glued to their Blackberries or other such devices. What is the point? They will all be forgotten in fifty years anyway. Steve Balmer, Steven Cohen, and Larry Ellison will all be forgotten. I do not understand the legacy thing. Nearly everyone will be forgotten. Give up on leaving your mark. Throw the Blackberry away and enjoy life.
So this is it. With all due respect, I am dropping out. Please do not expect any type of reply to emails or voicemails within normal time frames or at all. Andy Springer and his company will be handling the dissolution of the fund. And don't worry about my employees, they were always employed by Mr. Springer's company and only one (who has been well-rewarded) will lose his job.
I have no interest in any deals in which anyone would like me to participate. I truly do not have a strong opinion about any market right now, other than to say that things will continue to get worse for some time, probably years. I am content sitting on the sidelines and waiting. After all, sitting and waiting is how we made money from the subprime debacle. I now have time to repair my health, which was destroyed by the stress I layered onto myself over the past two years, as well as my entire life -- where I had to compete for spaces in universities and graduate schools, jobs and assets under management -- with those who had all the advantages (rich parents) that I did not. May meritocracy be part of a new form of government, which needs to be established.
On the issue of the U.S. Government, I would like to make a modest proposal. First, I point out the obvious flaws, whereby legislation was repeatedly brought forth to Congress over the past eight years, which would have reigned in the predatory lending practices of now mostly defunct institutions. These institutions regularly filled the coffers of both parties in return for voting down all of this legislation designed to protect the common citizen. This is an outrage, yet no one seems to know or care about it. Since Thomas Jefferson and Adam Smith passed, I would argue that there has been a dearth of worthy philosophers in this country, at least ones focused on improving government. Capitalism worked for two hundred years, but times change, and systems become corrupt. George Soros, a man of staggering wealth, has stated that he would like to be remembered as a philosopher. My suggestion is that this great man start and sponsor a forum for great minds to come together to create a new system of government that truly represents the common man's interest, while at the same time creating rewards great enough to attract the best and brightest minds to serve in government roles without having to rely on corruption to further their interests or lifestyles. This forum could be similar to the one used to create the operating system, Linux, which competes with Microsoft's near monopoly. I believe there is an answer, but for now the system is clearly broken.
Lastly, while I still have an audience, I would like to bring attention to an alternative food and energy source. You won't see it included in BP's, "Feel good. We are working on sustainable solutions," television commercials, nor is it mentioned in ADM's similar commercials. But hemp has been used for at least 5,000 years for cloth and food, as well as just about everything that is produced from petroleum products. Hemp is not marijuana and vice versa. Hemp is the male plant and it grows like a weed, hence the slang term. The original American flag was made of hemp fiber and our Constitution was printed on paper made of hemp. It was used as recently as World War II by the U.S. Government, and then promptly made illegal after the war was won. At a time when rhetoric is flying about becoming more self-sufficient in terms of energy, why is it illegal to grow this plant in this country? Ah, the female. The evil female plant -- marijuana. It gets you high, it makes you laugh, it does not produce a hangover. Unlike alcohol, it does not result in bar fights or wife beating. So, why is this innocuous plant illegal? Is it a gateway drug? No, that would be alcohol, which is so heavily advertised in this country. My only conclusion as to why it is illegal, is that Corporate America, which owns Congress, would rather sell you Paxil, Zoloft, Xanax and other additive drugs, than allow you to grow a plant in your home without some of the profits going into their coffers. This policy is ludicrous. It has surely contributed to our dependency on foreign energy sources. Our policies have other countries literally laughing at our stupidity, most notably Canada, as well as several European nations (both Eastern and Western). You would not know this by paying attention to U.S. media sources though, as they tend not to elaborate on who is laughing at the United States this week. Please people, let's stop the rhetoric and start thinking about how we can truly become self-sufficient.
With that I say good-bye and good luck.
All the best,
Andrew Lahde
by Matthew Malone
http://www.portfolio.com/views/blogs/daily-brief/2008/10/17/hedge-fund-manager-goodbye-and-f-you/
Sunday, January 4, 2009
Karam discussed as potential Gulf Currency
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2008-12/30/content_10581893.htm
MUSCAT, Dec. 30 (Xinhua) -- The Gulf leaders are discussing the naming of a possible single currency across the region, a well-informed Omani source revealed Tuesday.
The single currency may be called "Karam," which means honor in Arabic, or "Gulf dinar," the source said.
The source added that the heads of state of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) have reached consensus on issuing the single currency in 2010 in accordance with the plan.
The 29th annual GCC summit continued its second-day session in the Omani capital of Muscat, with key focus on approving a long-planned agreement to adopt a single currency in the Gulf region.
On Sept. 17, GCC's finance ministers have hammered out a draft agreement on the monetary union, which involves a single currency and a unified Gulf monetary authority, two key steps toward economic integration.
The draft deal has been referred to heads of state for approval at the ongoing Muscat summit.
Convinced by the success of euro zone, the Gulf leaders decided in 2001 to set up a monetary union and adopt a single GCC currency in 2010, a key step toward full regional economic integration.
However, Oman announced in 2006 that it would not join the single currency by the self-imposed 2010 deadline, and Kuwait said in 2007 that it will peg its currency dinar with a basket of main currencies instead of the dollar alone, giving a further blow to the tentative project.
The Omani source said if Oman cannot join the single currency in 2010, it could be issued initially in other Gulf nations.
Established in 1981, GCC is a regional political and economic alliance aimed at enhancing cooperation among its six member countries.
The GCC groups Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, which pumps 16 million barrels of crude oil per day and possesses about 45 percent of the world's proven crude reserves.
Yuan to replace Dollar
http://www.asianews.it/index.php?l=en&art=14131&size=A Beijing has launched the experiment of using the yuan as a reserve currency in relations with 8 countries. Chinese exporters are asking to charge in yuan instead of dollars, because the U.S. currency is losing value. But China needs to revise its model of development, too much inspired by eighteenth century mercantilism.
Milan (AsiaNews) - While the comments of economic observers have focused on what is happening to U.S. public debt and to financial markets overseas, the news media rarely mention what is happening in Asia, almost as if there were not a strong correlation between the two phenomena. But it is logical that a substantial accumulation of foreign exchange reserves in China, Japan and throughout Asia corresponds to an unprecedented supply of dollars, the global reserve currency.
But Asia now understands that the increase of money supply decreases the intrinsic value of a currency. That is why China is seeking a possible and rational attempt to decouple Asian currencies from the dollar, as recent news stories report [1].
In practice, China is trying to make its currency convertible and give it a role as a reserve currency. The first experiment is limited to transactions between Hong Kong and the neighboring provinces. It is also proposed that the yuan renminbi be used in 8 neighboring countries, including Russia. With these countries, agreements have already been signed for the settlement of contracts in the Chinese currency. Perhaps it is no coincidence that the news was released on Christmas Day, when Western markets are closed, reducing the impact on the dollar. In addition, the first weeks of January are usually fairly quiet. This means that although for now the trial is limited, China is preparing to establish full convertibility of its currency to all other currencies. Many in China have spoken out directly or indirectly in this regard: for example, Wu Xiaoling, former vice governor of the central bank, and Zhao Xijun, a professor of finance at Renmin University of China. The current governor of China's central bank, Zhou Xiaochuan, in early December in Hong Kong had indicated that if the value of the dollar fluctuated drastically, its use as a settlement currency (for commercial transactions) would cause problems. It is clear that Chinese exporters, behind the scenes, are asking the government for permission to charge in yuan instead of dollars, which are losing value. Other warnings came in the middle of last December: the increase in purchases of U.S. Treasury bonds should not lead to the supposition that the U.S. can borrow its way out of the financial crisis [2]. Finally, on January 1, a well-known Chinese economist, Wu Jinglian, wrote that China must change its development model [3], with reference to the paradigm of economic growth driven by exports. We note, incidentally, that even the pope, who obviously has mainly pastoral responsibilities, has said the world must change its model of development [4] ("Are we are prepared to conduct together an in-depth review of the dominant development model, to correct it in a comprehensive and forward-looking way?" Benedict XVI asked).
Toward full convertibility of the yuan
If, after a trial period, China makes its currency convertible, the consequence is that importing countries must have reserves of yuan renminbi. To get them, central banks around the world will have to divest themselves of U.S. assets and Treasury bonds. The euro has a rather limited role in Asian exchange. In this case, a currency crisis would be triggered by the substantial and artificial lowering of the exchange rate of the yuan, of which we have written in the past [5]. The intention of the Chinese leadership is to correct this undervaluation, of which they are fully aware. The newspaper of the Chinese Communist Party, the People's Daily, summarizes the thinking of China's foreign trade minister, Chen Deming, with the questionable assertion that China does not intend to promote exports by the depreciation of (its) currency [6]. It would have been more correct to say that it no longer does so, since that is what it had done since January 1, 1994, when the Chinese currency was devalued in real terms by about 55%. Western businessmen, first and foremost Americans, attracted by wages at the margin of subsistence and a workforce without rights, on the verge of slavery, have financed the transformation of the country from a Stalinist economy. They provided 80% of investments. Industrial-style development has taken aim at maximizing profits as soon as possible, and therefore resulted in a significant waste of resources, namely labor and raw materials. Today, therefore, production lines have largely been transferred to China. Chen Deming says that if America and Europe are unable to pay, we will continue our expansion by exporting to emerging countries like India and Brazil.
The problems of mercantilism
China's problems don't end there. In the words of Chen Deming, and of a substantial part of the Chinese leadership, there are signs pointing to attempts to deal with another imbalance that is at the heart of the global financial crisis. Globalization, namely the lowering of tariffs, cannot help but produce imbalances if some countries are counting on growth driven by exports and protect their domestic markets by non-tariff barriers of various kinds. For AsiaNews, we noted in 2004 [7] that this trade distortion severely disrupts the use of resources. With a GDP - gross domestic product - (at current prices) in 2003 amounting to a little less than 4% of the world total, and with 20% of world population, China consumed 31% of the coal, 30% of the ore iron, 27% of the steel, 25% of the aluminum, 40% of the cement. In 2007, the proportion of Chinese consumption was even higher: for coal, it was 41.3%, more than 50% for iron ore, for steel 34%, more than 33% for aluminum and more 50% for cement. In the words of Chen Deming, this reveals, in other words, the persistence among the Chinese authorities of a concept of international trade unchanged since the European mercantilism of the eighteenth century: the wealth of nations is the quantity of gold and silver they possess. The devastating impact of this conception can be illustrated by just one example. According to a "flash" on the Dow Jones Newswire (November 19, 2008) the Chinese central bank is considering increasing its gold reserves from 600 tons to 4,000 [8]. At current prices, 3,400 tons of gold are only 95 billion dollars, compared with reserves at the end of October of 652.9 billion dollars in U.S. Treasury bonds, for total Chinese foreign exchange reserves of over 2 trillion dollars. These rumors are not fully confirmed. If China intended to stockpile that much gold, the price of the yellow metal would skyrocket, but the rural population and migrant workers wouldn't be much better off.
We hope that the mercantilist view will not prevail in China. Wu Jinglian writes in the Chinese magazine "Caijing": "Without this transformation [from an export driven development model to one based on internal needs], China could not solve the problems caused by excess consumption of natural resources, or environmental pollution, or the problem of too much investment [in fixed capital, plants and machinery] and insufficient domestic consumption, or the problem in the financial sector [the Chinese banks]."
[1] See Xinhua, 25/12/2008, Senior official: Renminbi likely to be used as currency for forex reserves, and ibid. China to begin yuan-settlement trials
[2] See China Daily, 17/12/2008, Keys to the Treasury
[3] See Xinhua, 1/1/2009, Noted economist urges China to change the pattern of growth
[4] See AsiaNews, 1/1/2009, Follow God who "became poor" to fight "unjust" poverty
[5] See AsiaNews, 09/12/2008 Economic crisis: US, China and the coming monetary storm, AsiaNews, 19/12/2008 U.S. debt approaches insolvency; Chinese currency reserves at risk
[6] See People's Daily Online, 24/12/2008, Commerce minister: China not to promote exports through currency depreciation
[7] See AsiaNews 24/04/2004 Greater conflict in Gulf would spark economic and social crisis. See also "Man" at risk in China's great development
[8] See DJNewswire cited by China PBOC Mulls Raising Gold Reserve Tons By 4000 - Report. Dow Jones keeps stories in its public archive for only two days.
[9] The items in square brackets are the author's clarifications.
Tuesday, December 30, 2008
ACM leaves NFA, shuts down US ops, opens bank in Switzerland
Important Notice from ACM USA ACM USA's white-label licensor, ACM – Advanced Currency Markets SA ("AC-Markets"), announces another milestone in its already impressive and successful history: the formation and creation of ACM Bank. The ACM Group proudly announces the planned reorganization of the ACM Family under the new ACM Bank. In an effort to ensure greater security, safety, and enhanced banking and investment services to their clients, ACM Group is in the process of applying for its Swiss banking license. As a result, for the short term ACM USA will no longer be an active NFA member. This means that ACM USA will no longer act as a counterparty to forex positions and will not continue to service client accounts. Instead, ACM USA will remain a licensed office to AC-Markets assisting in the opening of forex trading accounts directly with AC-Markets and in the future with ACM Bank. AC-Markets is not a National Futures Association ("NFA") member firm and cannot accept U.S. customers until the approval of its Banking license. Please note the coming date which is of importance to your ACM USA forex trading account. You may continue to trade or close your ACM USA account until the above mentioned date. However, should you not take any action before the above mentioned date, your account will be closed and the account balance will be returned to you by check. If you have any questions or concerns please do not hesitate to contact our office at (212) 758-7200 or customersupport@acmusa.com. Best Regards Click here for a Withdrawal Request Form that can be sent via fax (646) 308-9262
ACM USA LLC
Pound Falls to 98 Pence Per Euro for 1st Time on Housing Slump
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aDeya8Ha_0Vk
Dec. 29 (Bloomberg) -- The U.K. pound weakened to a record 98 pence per euro after an industry report said house prices will probably extend declines next year, boosting the case for deeper interest-rate cuts by the Bank of England.
Britain's currency also dropped versus 14 of its 16 most- traded counterparts, falling for a second day against the Swiss franc and tumbling to a 14-year low against Japan's yen. Property research company Hometrack Ltd. said U.K. house values slid 8.7 percent this year, led by a 10.1 percent drop in London, and that prices will "inevitably" decline in 2009.
Tue Dec 30 00:59:00 2008(EST)
* 30 Dec 08: 05:59(SGA) - FX NOW! EUR/CHF, USD/CHF Flows : Thin year end markets, focus on Israel/ Gaza attacks
Thin markets, exaggerated moves as Japan closed early for New Year holidays. USD/JPY dipping to 90.10-15 from 90.20-25, and USD/CHF to 1.0515-20 from 1.0530-40, and EUR/CHF trading around 1.4845-50. Focus still on the ongoing Israel/ Hamas fighting. USD/CHF off its 5-month lows of 1.0370 seen yesterday, while EUR/CHF off the 6-week lows of 1.4758 seen yesterday, lowest since November 12 lows of 1.4705. WL
Saturday, December 27, 2008
Russia is bracing for further unrest and other info
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/fb228bfa-d385-11dd-989e-000077b07658.html?nclick_check=1 Russia is bracing for further unrest as the rouble on Friday slid to a new low against the euro after a succession of moves to devalue its currency.
At at time when transparency and accountability in financial markets are of the utmost critical importance to the nation, the Securities and Exchange Commission has just announced on December 23rd that it will substantially bump up the fees it charges for records requests in the guise of recouping its costs.
http://www.sec.gov/rules/proposed/2008/34-59150.pdf
Search and review fees will be bumped up from the two categories: 16 and 28 dollars per hour to categories of 26, 40 and 70 dollars per hour.
Now, commercial developers are trying to pony up to the taxpayer trough. These egotists used immense amounts of short term debt to overpay for malls, office towers, hotels and apartment complexes. The rental income could never cover the interest expense on the debt. The only way they could possibly make money was if the next moron developer was foolish enough to overpay for the same assets. The market was flying high as the MBA geniuses on Wall Street were able to work their magic by slicing this debt into tranches, getting it rated as investment grade paper by criminally negligent Moody's and S&P, and reselling it to gullible investors throughout the world. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article7972.html
Housing market crash has led to 32,000 estate agents losing their job
Price-slashing failed to rescue a bleak holiday season for beleaguered
retailers, as sales plunged across most categories on shrinking consumer
spending, according to new data released Thursday. Despite a flurry of
last-minute shoppers lured by the deep discounts, total retail sales fell
over the year-earlier period by 5.5% in November and 8% in December
through Christmas Eve, according to MasterCard Inc.'s SpendingPulse unit.
Considering individual sectors, "This will go down as the one of the worst
holiday sales seasons on record," said Mary Delk, a director in the retail
practice at consulting firm Deloitte LLP. "Retailers went from 'Ho-ho' to 'Uh
oh' to 'Oh-no.'" The holiday retail-sales decline was much worse than the
already-dire picture painted by industry forecasts, which had predicted
sales ranging from a 1% drop to a more optimistic increase of 2.2% . . .
Thursday, December 25, 2008
one third of banks to fail in 2009
Silva tells CNBC up to a thousand face failure or forced merger
Wednesday, December 24, 2008
Financial analyst Ralph Silva of TowerGroup told CNBC this morning that he expects no less than one third of banks to fail in 2009 and that anything up to a thousand could collapse if they don't merge.
Silva said that only five or six global banks have enough funds to survive comfortably throughout 2009.
"The rest of the banks, and that means a thousand other banks, don't have enough money to get themselves through 2009," added Silva.
"In 2009 we're gonna see one third of the banks in the G8 countries disappear, either being merged, forced or not forced, or completely disappearing," said Silva.
The analyst predicted that rather than letting banks fail, governments will force them to merge, citing the example of Bradford and Bingley in the UK, which would lead to "very few banks owning quite a bit more."
Silva warned that banks would not be able to lend any money throughout 2009 because they would be more concerned with merely surviving and being able to pay their own employees.
Monday, December 22, 2008
FX the only game in town
Bonuses of Currency Traders Fall Least on Wall Street (Update3)
By Liz Capo McCormick
Dec. 22 (Bloomberg) -- The most volatile foreign-exchange markets since at least 1992 means currency traders will see the smallest pay cuts as the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression wipes out bonuses on Wall Street.
While bonuses, which account for the bulk of annual pay for traders and investment bankers, will fall an average 45 percent this year, currency traders will see declines of about 15 percent from 2007, the least of any department, according to Options Group, a New York-based consulting firm. Top executives at New York-based Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Morgan Stanley and Merrill Lynch & Co., gave up their bonuses as banks reported $1 trillion in writedowns and losses since the start of last year.
The biggest drop in the Standard & Poor's 500 Index since 1931, a $100-a-barrel collapse in oil prices and the largest losses in corporate debt led to 200,000 job cuts at banks around the world. Yet data from the Comptroller of the Currency show foreign-exchange trading revenue at U.S. commercial banks rose 66 percent in the second quarter from a year earlier. Trading accelerated after the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. in September.
"Our team had been working long hours all year, but the days grew exponentially" after the Sept. 15 bankruptcy filing of New York-based Lehman, said Russell LaScala, head of North America foreign exchange at Deutsche Bank AG in New York.
Foreign-exchange desks of Frankfurt-based Deutsche Bank and UBS AG of Zurich, the world's two largest currency traders, posted three consecutive quarters of record revenue from foreign exchange, according to quarterly earnings reports. The firms didn't break out the revenue figures.
'Robust' Business
A trader who has been a vice president for three years will get on average a bonus of $350,000 to $450,000, according to Options Group, which started tracking pay and hiring more than a decade ago. Global heads of foreign exchange trading will receive average bonuses of $3.5 million to $4.5 million, down 10 percent from last year.
"The top performers' bonuses are going to be cut conservatively because they had record years, like the foreign exchange people," said Bob Reed, co-chief operating officer and co-founder of the Options Group. "I see no limitations on volatility, so that business will go forward pretty robustly."
Volatility, which fuels increased trading and revenue for banks, surged to record levels in the weeks following Lehman's bankruptcy as investors unwound holdings of higher-yielding assets to repay low-cost yen- and dollar-denominated loans.
Implied Volatility
So-called implied volatility on options for major exchange rates reached a record 26.55 percent on Oct. 24, from this year's low of 9.27 percent in August, according to data compiled by New York-based JPMorgan Chase & Co. Traders use implied volatility to gauge expectations for currency swings and in setting options prices.
The bank's index, which began tracking implied volatility on three-month options in June 1992, averaged 8.87 percent for the five years prior to the collapse of the subprime mortgage market in September 2007. The index was 20.88 percent today.
"The spike in market volatility led to wider spreads and higher trading volumes, driven by both hedging and risk management needs," said Fabian Shey, global co-head of foreign exchange and money markets at UBS in London. "Facing pronounced movements in underlying equity markets and also currency markets, asset managers had an increased need for currency hedging."
Foreign-exchange contracts traded at the CME Group Inc., the world's largest futures market, surged in September to a record 835,000 per day, a 32 percent increase from a year earlier, to a notional value of $111 billion.
'Volume Exploded'
"As volatility started to rise, the increase in business was a result of clients trying to proactively position themselves," Deutsche Bank's LaScala said. "When the whole de- leveraging started, foreign exchange volume exploded as people were trying to take their risk down."
U.S. commercial banks reported $2.1 billion in foreign- exchange trading revenue in the second quarter, a 66 percent increase from the same period a year earlier, according to the latest data from the Treasury's Office of the Comptroller of the Currency. Currencies revenue gained 14 percent in the first quarter.
Foreign-exchange trading was about the only bright spot on Wall Street this year.
While Treasuries have returned 14.7 percent, according to Merrill Lynch & Co.'s Treasury Master Index, average daily trading this year among the 17 primary dealers of U.S. government securities is $570.7 billion, compared with $571.6 billion in 2007, data compiled by the Federal Reserve show.
Takeovers, Issuance
Investment banking fees fell as takeovers shrank 36 percent from 2007. Fees for advising on mergers and acquisitions dropped 34 percent to an estimated $63 billion, according to data compiled by Bloomberg and New York-based research firm Freeman & Co. U.S. companies sold $859.4 billion of bonds this year, down 26 percent from 2007, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
The meltdown of the U.S. mortgage market that led to a freeze in global credit forced traders to abandon higher-risk assets and pay back loans taken out in yen, causing the currency to soar to a 13-year high against the dollar as investors pared so-called carry trades. The U.S. dollar gained against other major currencies through November as investors sought a haven from global turmoil.
The exodus into the dollar and yen established a trend for traders to follow, according to Kathy Lien, director of currency research at GFT. The Ada, Michigan-based online-currency trading firm's volume surged 37 percent this year, including a jump of 157 percent in September and 187 percent in October, she said.
Dollar Index
ICE's Dollar Index, which tracks the dollar versus a basket of currencies comprised of the euro, yen, British pound, Canadian dollar, Swedish krona and Swiss franc, increased 15 percent this year to a peak of 88.46 on Nov. 21. Since then the index fell 8.3 percent to 80.902. The yen has appreciated 24 percent this year versus the U.S. dollar to 90 yen.
The billions of dollars made available by the Fed to other central banks and intervention to support local currencies by South Korea and other developing nations helped bolster trading, according to Neil Jones, head of European hedge-fund sales in London at Mizuho Capital Markets. Central banks intervene when they buy or sell currencies to influence exchange rates.
The Fed set up currency swap lines with more than a dozen other central banks. Arrangements with Europe, the U.K. and Japan, are open-ended, allowing the Fed's counterparts to draw as many dollars as they need. The value of the Fed's System Open Market Account rose to $304.5 billion, from $87.8 billion at the end of June, due to the increased dollar funding provided to central banks through the swap lines.
Central Bank 'Animals'
"The biggest animals involved in foreign exchange are the central banks," said Jones. "The combination of clear trends in the market and ample liquidity has helped foreign exchange do well this year."
Foreign-exchange funds had their biggest monthly returns in October since 2003, according to funds tracked by Stamford, Connecticut-based Parker Global Strategies LLC. Currency funds gained 2.53 percent in October, according to the firm, whose Parker FX Index tracks 68 firms managing more than $36 billion.
"People in foreign exchange are still getting recruited," said Jeanne Branthover, head of the global financial-services practice at recruiting firm Boyden Global Executive Search in New York. "Firms are saying to recruiters like us that they are always looking for the best talent in foreign exchange because it is an area that will still be revenue generating in 2009."
To contact the reporter on this story: Liz Capo McCormick in New York at Emccormick7@bloomberg.net
Last Updated: December 22, 2008 13:08 EST
Sunday, December 21, 2008
Lee Iacocca fed up
Lee Iacocca writes:
Am I the only guy in this country who's fed up with what's happening? Where the hell is our outrage? We should be screaming bloody murder. We've got a gang of clueless bozos steering our ship of state right over a cliff, we've got corporate gangsters stealing us blind, and we can't even clean up after a hurricane much less build a hybrid car. But instead of getting mad, everyone sits around and nods their heads when the politicians say, "Stay the course."
Stay the course? You've got to be kidding. This is America, not the damned Titanic. I'll give you a sound bite: Throw the bums out!
You might think I'm getting senile, that I've gone off my rocker, and maybe I have. But someone has to speak up. I hardly recognize this country anymore.
The most famous business leaders are not the innovators but the guys in handcuffs. While we're fiddling in Iraq , the Middle East is burning and nobody seems to know what to do. And the press is waving 'pom-poms' instead of asking hard questions. That's not the promise of the ' America ' my parents and yours traveled across the ocean for. I've had enough. How about you?
I'll go a step further. You can't call yourself a patriot if you're not outraged. This is a fight I'm ready and willing to have.
The Biggest 'C' is Crisis !
Leaders are made, not born. Leadership is forged in times of crisis. It's easy to sit there with your feet up on the desk and talk theory. Or send someone else's kids off to war when you've never seen a battlefield yourself. It's another thing to lead when your world comes tumbling down. George Bush, Dick Chaney and who is this Bozo coming up next? One of the most Liberal Idiots in the U.S. Senate, and he is talking about disarming America . I can't believe the
American people aren't seeing what he is about to do to this country. May God have mercy on us all.
On September 11, 2001, we needed a strong leader more than any other time in our history. We needed a steady hand to guide us out of the ashes. A Hell of a Mess. So here's where we stand. We're immersed in a bloody war with no plan for winning and no plan for leaving. We're running the biggest deficit in the history of the country. We're losing the manufacturing edge to Asia , while our once-great Companies are all moving offshore. We're getting slaughtered by health care costs. Gas prices are skyrocketing, and nobody in power has a coherent energy policy. Our schools are the worst in the world. Our borders are like sieves. The middle class is being squeezed every which way. These are times that cry out for leadership and we are getting ready to put the most Liberal Senator in the U.S. Senate in as our next President because we want to be fair and elect someone just because of his race. We don't have time to be fair, we need a strong leader.
But when you look around, you've got to ask: 'Where have all the leaders gone?' Where are the curious, creative communicators? Where are the people of character, courage, conviction, omnipotence, and common sense? I may be a sucker for alliteration, but I hope you get the point.
Name me a leader who has a better idea for homeland security than making us take off our shoes in airports and throw away our shampoo? We've spent billions of dollars building a huge new bureaucracy, and all we know how to do is react to things that have already happened.
Name me one leader who emerged from the crisis of Hurricane Katrina. Congress has yet to spend a single day evaluating the response to the hurricane, or demanding accountability for the decisions that were made in the crucial hours after the storm. Everyone's hunkering down, fingers crossed, hoping it doesn't happen again. Well guess what people? We are having more floods right now. What are we doing to help these people out? Now, that's just crazy. Storms happen. Deal with it. Make a plan. Figure out what you're going to do the next time. Why are we allowing people to build in flood plains anyway? If you build in a flood area, expect to be flooded and deal with it. Don't expect the Government to bail you out.
Name me an industry leader who is thinking creatively about how we can restore our competitive edge in manufacturing. All they seem to be thinking now-days is getting themselves bigger salaries and bonuses. Who would have believed that there could ever be a time when 'The Big Three' referred to Japanese car companies? How did this happen, and more important, what are we going to do about it? Likely nothing!
Name me a government leader who can articulate a plan for paying down the debt, or solving the energy crisis, or managing the health care problem. The silence is deafening. But these are the crises that are eating away at our country and milking the middle class dry. I have news for the gang in Congress and the Senate. We didn't elect you to sit on your asses and do nothing and remain silent while our democracy is being hijacked and our greatness is being replaced with mediocrity. What is everybody so afraid of? That some bonehead on Fox News will call them a name? Give me a break. Why don't you guys show some spine for a change? I honestly don't think any of you have one!
Had Enough?
Hey, I'm not trying to be the voice of gloom and doom here. I'm trying to light a fire. I'm speaking out because I have hope; I believe in America … In my lifetime I've had the privilege of living through some of America's greatest moments I've also experienced some of our worst crises: the 'Great Depression', 'World War II', the 'Korean War', the 'Kennedy Assassination', the 'Vietnam War', the 1970s oil crisis, and the struggles of recent years culminating with 9/11. If I've learned one thing, it's this:
'You don't get anywhere by standing on the sidelines waiting for somebody else to take action. Whether it's building a better car or building a better future for our children, we all have a role to play. That's the challenge I'm raising in this book. It's a call to 'Action' for people who, like me, believe in America . It's not too late, but it's getting pretty close. So let's shake
off the crap and go to work. Let's tell 'em all we've had 'enough.'
FBI Agents Shifted From Terror Work to Madoff, Subprime Probes
Dec. 21 (Bloomberg) -- The FBI has been forced to shift agents from terror and other crime work to Wall Street investigations including the Bernard Madoff Ponzi scandal, said David Cardona, head of the New York office's criminal division. http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aLRvQBfKvPeM&refer=home
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8PIEGK0IbA4
U.S. Economy : The Philosopher's Stone
SEC Report: Employees Browsed Porn, Ran Private Businesses
by Jake Bernstein, ProPublica - December 19, 2008 5:01 pm EST
Tags: Pornography, SEC
The Securities and Exchange Commission is taking a drubbing these days for its abject failure―despite detailed tips―to catch Bernie Madoff in what appears to be the biggest Ponzi scheme in our nation's history.
Now, thanks to little-noticed report from the agency's inspector general, we have a detailed glimpse into other bad behavior by some SEC employees.
The report, released the day after Thanksgiving, reveals that some employees at the agency were clearly preoccupied with matters other than their mission of "protecting investors and maintaining fair, orderly, and efficient markets." The semi-annual report to Congress, which covers the period from this past April to September, details among other things a handful of employees circumventing internal controls to download porn. Let's pause for some detail:
[Investigators] uncovered evidence that an employee who was still in his probationary period had used his SEC laptop computer to attempt to access Internet websites classified as containing pornography, resulting in hundreds of access denials. The OIG investigation also disclosed that this employee successfully bypassed the Commission's Internet filter by using a flash drive.
Presumably, that's not the kind of initiative the SEC is looking for.
There were also more serious misdeeds raised by the report. For example, there is the case of the senior-level commission employee who "clearly and purposefully identified herself as a Commission employee when dealing with brokers about a family member's account," making the broker in question feel like she was trying to "intimidate and bully him." The OIG referred the matter to management for "disciplinary action, up to and including dismissal." By the end of the period covered in the report, management "had not proposed or taken action."
There are other examples where the punishment was less than fulsome.
Investigators found employees in separate offices operated private photography businesses out of the commission:
An employee repeatedly and flagrantly used Commission resources, including Commission Internet access, e-mail, telephone and printer, in support of his private photography business for several years.
The IG's office recommended "disciplinary action up to and including dismissal." In turn, the report notes, "management suspended the employee from duty and pay for nine calendar days."
When asked about the report, Deputy Director for Public Affairs John Heine said, "In each of these [cases] there is some sort of response from the Commission. We don't have anything to say beyond that."
The report reveals also that two commission staffers employed as attorneys didn't have active bar memberships. One attorney let his bar license lapse in 1994. The report said one of the lapsed lawyers "submitted a declaration in Federal court, in which he stated that he was an attorney employed by the SEC. We referred the potential false statement or perjury to the applicable United States Attorney's office." (The office declined to prosecute.)
The IG also found that the commission did not have a sufficient system in place to "prevent and detect insider trading on the part of Commission employees or violations of the Commission's rules."
The agency's information management also comes in for criticism. An employee survey conducted by the inspector general revealed that employees failed to enter data into a computer system used to manage investigations. The system known as the HUB was launched in August 2007 after the Government Accountability Office had highlighted major problems with the SEC's previous case management and tracking system. The IG semi-annual report also reveals that the commission lacks "an inventory of its laptops and was unable to trace ownership of laptops to specific individuals."
Here at ProPublica we've just begun working our way through the fascinating 95-page document. Take a look at it yourself and let us know what you find.
Friday, December 19, 2008
Saxo Bank 10 economic outrageous claims
http://www2.saxobank.com/Documents/pressreleases/Outrageous%20Predictions%202009%20final.pdf
SAXOBANK.COM. THE SPECIALIST IN TRADING & INVESTMENT. SAXO BANK A/S | Philip Heymans Allé 15 | DK-2900 Hellerup Telephone +45 39 77 40 00 | Telefax +45 39 77 42 00 | www.saxobank.com | Team-corporatecommunications@saxobank.com December 17, 2008
Saxo Bank predicts 2009 will hit all economic lows
London and Copenhagen – 17 December 2008: Crude trading at $25. S&P 500 falls 50% to 500. China's GDP growth falls to zero. EURUSD falls to 0.95. Italy could leave the ERM. If Saxo Bank's 10 outrageous claims for the year ahead transpire, economic conditions will worsen dramatically in 2009. "The good thing is, overall, we predict 2009 will be a turning point because it can't get much worse" says Chief Economist David Karsbøl.
The Copenhagen‐based online trading and investment specialist's predictions are an annual attempt to predict rare but high impact 'black swan' events that are beyond the realm of normal market expectations. Compiled as part of the bank's 2009 Outlook, the thought exercise this year present a dismal view of the global financial landscape.
Saxo Bank's Outrageous Claims for 2009:
- There will be severe social unrest in Iran as lower oil prices mean that the government will not be able to uphold the supply of basic necessities.
- Crude will trade at $25 as demand slows due to the worst global economic contraction since the great Depression.
- S&P will hit 500 in 2009 because of falling earnings, vaporizing housing equity and increased cost of funds in the corporate sector.
- The EU is likely to crack down on excessive government budget deficits in several member states, and Italy could live up to previous threats and leave the ERM completely.
- The AUDJPY will drop to 40. The decline in the commodities markets will affect the Australian economy.
- EURUSD will fall to 0.95 and then go to 1.30 as European bank balances are under tremendous pressure because of exposure to the faltering Eastern European markets and intra‐European economic tensions.
- Chinese GDP growth drops to zero. The export driven sectors in the Chinese economy will be hurt significantly by the free‐fall economic activity in the Global Trade and especially of the US.
- Pre‐In's First Out. Several of the Eastern European currencies currently pegged or semi‐pegged to the EUR will be under increasing pressure due to capital outflows in 2009.
- Reuters/ Jefferies CRB Index to drop to 30% to 150. The Commodity bubble is bursting, with speculative excesses so large they have skewed the demand and supply statistics.
- 2009 will see the first Asian currencies to be pegged to CNY. Asian economies will increasingly look towards China to find new trade partners and scale down their hitherto US‐centric agenda.
Peter Schiff nailed it! and other info
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2I0QN-FYkpw Peter Schiff nailed it!
Updates from auto-trading community
High performance, including native InfiniBand support
- New native InfiniBand implementation accesses InfiniBand at the "native verb" layer for improved latency, throughput, and scalability.
- Very low latency of 5 microseconds on native InfiniBand or 41 microseconds on Ethernet can be achieved for 45-byte messages at a throughput rate of 10,000 messages per second.1
- Very high throughput, one-to-many multicast messaging can deliver more than 40 million 12-byte messages per second on native InfiniBand, approximately one million 120-byte messages per second on Ethernet, and close to three million 120-byte messages per second on InfiniBand, all on common x86 servers 1.
SEC Charges Bernard L. Madoff for Multi-Billion Dollar Ponzi Scheme
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
2008-293
Washington, D.C., Dec. 11, 2008 — The Securities and Exchange Commission today charged Bernard L. Madoff and his investment firm, Bernard L. Madoff Investment Securities LLC, with securities fraud for a multi-billion dollar Ponzi scheme that he perpetrated on advisory clients of his firm. The SEC is seeking emergency relief for investors, including an asset freeze and the appointment of a receiver for the firm.
The SEC's complaint, filed in federal court in Manhattan, alleges that Madoff yesterday informed two senior employees that his investment advisory business was a fraud. Madoff told these employees that he was "finished," that he had "absolutely nothing," that "it's all just one big lie," and that it was "basically, a giant Ponzi scheme." The senior employees understood him to be saying that he had for years been paying returns to certain investors out of the principal received from other, different investors. Madoff admitted in this conversation that the firm was insolvent and had been for years, and that he estimated the losses from this fraud were at least $50 billion.
http://www.sec.gov/news/press/2008/2008-293.htm
http://newyork.fbi.gov/dojpressrel/pressrel08/nyfo121108.htm
Tuesday, December 16, 2008
Fed cuts rates to ZERO
http://money.cnn.com/2008/12/16/markets/markets_newyork/index.htm NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Stocks surged Tuesday after the Federal Reserve cut a key short-term interest rate to the lowest level on record, and signaled it had more tools available to help the economy as the recession stretches on.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aafQgexzAGXk&refer=home Dec. 16 (Bloomberg) -- The Federal Reserve cut the main U.S. interest rate to as low as zero for the first time and shifted its focus to the amount and type of debt it buys, seeking to revive credit and end the longest slump in a quarter- century.
http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20081216b.htm
Release Date: December 16, 2008
For immediate release
The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to establish a target range for the federal funds rate of 0 to 1/4 percent.
Since the Committee's last meeting, labor market conditions have deteriorated, and the available data indicate that consumer spending, business investment, and industrial production have declined. Financial markets remain quite strained and credit conditions tight. Overall, the outlook for economic activity has weakened further.
Meanwhile, inflationary pressures have diminished appreciably. In light of the declines in the prices of energy and other commodities and the weaker prospects for economic activity, the Committee expects inflation to moderate further in coming quarters.
The Federal Reserve will employ all available tools to promote the resumption of sustainable economic growth and to preserve price stability. In particular, the Committee anticipates that weak economic conditions are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for some time.
The focus of the Committee's policy going forward will be to support the functioning of financial markets and stimulate the economy through open market operations and other measures that sustain the size of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet at a high level. As previously announced, over the next few quarters the Federal Reserve will purchase large quantities of agency debt and mortgage-backed securities to provide support to the mortgage and housing markets, and it stands ready to expand its purchases of agency debt and mortgage-backed securities as conditions warrant. The Committee is also evaluating the potential benefits of purchasing longer-term Treasury securities. Early next year, the Federal Reserve will also implement the Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility to facilitate the extension of credit to households and small businesses. The Federal Reserve will continue to consider ways of using its balance sheet to further support credit markets and economic activity.
Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; Christine M. Cumming; Elizabeth A. Duke; Richard W. Fisher; Donald L. Kohn; Randall S. Kroszner; Sandra Pianalto; Charles I. Plosser; Gary H. Stern; and Kevin M. Warsh.
In a related action, the Board of Governors unanimously approved a 75-basis-point decrease in the discount rate to 1/2 percent. In taking this action, the Board approved the requests submitted by the Boards of Directors of the Federal Reserve Banks of New York, Cleveland, Richmond, Atlanta, Minneapolis, and San Francisco. The Board also established interest rates on required and excess reserve balances of 1/4 percent.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/17/business/economy/17fed.html?bl&ex=1229576400&en=9d5b8715e8bcd55a&ei=5087%0A WASHINGTON — The Federal Reserve entered a new era on Tuesday, setting its benchmark interest rate so low that it will have to reach for new and untested tools in fighting both the recession and downward pressure on consumer prices.
4 cast says:
Tue Dec 16 19:40:00 2008(EST)
* 17 Dec 08: 00:40(SGA) - FX NOW! EUR/GBP, GBP/USD Flows - Cable sales, but, its getting a more dangerous game.
Some cable sales being seen, with a German name noticeable, though at this stage they appear to be somewhat tentative. Although sterling cannot be described as anything but 'weak' in terms of most of the crosses, short covering on cable has - and can continue to have - rather painful consequences, and as such we would at this stage be a little hesitant ourselves in jumping on the sales bandwagon. On EUR/GBP, where, so far, the easy call has been north, though we will inevitably hear growing suggestions that parity is coming, especially in the media, we would also be inclined to step back a little, and would note our technician's call that though the 0.91 level is calling, it's a cut and run on a downside break of 0.8875. C.F.
* 17 Dec 08: 00:21(SGA) - FX NOW! EUR/USD, USD/CHF Flows - Wither the dollar?
Again thin and gappy markets, but with just a little (unsurprising) profit-taking after the initial squeeze appears to have run its course. With order books almost certainly cleared, and stops stopped, we now await the next push. The technicians will, of course be concentrating on buying on dips, and the tacticians, who yesterday were calling for the USD to be the weakest currency at least for the first half of 2009 will be re-evaluating, and perhaps thinking that a lot of weakening has already been done! But in the meantime, we look for a relatively solid base near 1.40 (though tech studies allow for a pullback to 1.3940), and a push to 1.4185, a 50% retracement level, which, if nothing else, is at least a convenient peg to hang the next EUR/USD rally on. C.F.
Monday, December 15, 2008
Russia devalues ruble as Madoff fraud unraveled
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aw7gy7CnbU_s Dec. 15 (Bloomberg) -- Russia's central bank devalued the ruble for the second time in a week after policy makers spent $161 billion of reserves trying to defend the currency and oil revenue slumped.
Just when Wall Street needs it least, Bernie Madoff's pyramid scheme takes financial fraud to new lows.... http://www.economist.com/finance/displayStory.cfm?story_id=12795543&source=features_box1
Tim Duy is worried that "the Fed the Fed and Treasury are setting the stage for a disorderly adjustment of the Dollar":
What If the Analogy is Wrong?, by Tim Duy: I say this with no exaggeration: The picture painted by the data flow of the past two weeks is deep into the left tail of any of my reasonable distribution of probable economic outcomes. The die is now cast – fiscal stimulus will be too late to prevent the snowballing that will occur throughout the first half of next year. In this environment, policymaking will become increasingly desperate. http://www.rgemonitor.com/financemarkets-monitor/254768/fed_watch_what_if_the_analogy_is_wrong
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