Tuesday, August 16, 2011

The advantages of Pessimism


Incompatibility between our big aspirations and the reality of life is bound to disappoint unless we learn to be a bit more gloomy, says Alain de Botton.
Today I want to advance the unusual idea that we'd be a great deal more cheerful if we learnt to be a little more pessimistic.
And, from a completely secular point of view, I'd like to suggest that in the passages before they go on to promise us salvation, religions are rather good at being pessimistic. For example, Christianity has spent much of its history emphasising the darker side of earthly existence.
Yet even within this sombre tradition, the French philosopher Blaise Pascal stands out for the exceptionally merciless nature of his pessimism. In his book the Pensees, Pascal misses no opportunities to confront his readers with evidence of mankind's resolutely deviant, pitiful and unworthy nature.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-14506129

A pessimistic world view does not have to entail a life stripped of joy. Pessimists can have a far greater capacity for appreciation than their opposite numbers, for they never expect things to turn out well and so may be amazed by the modest successes which occasionally break out across their darkened horizons.
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Monday, August 15, 2011

EES Project Management

EES Project Management
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EES Custom Programming & Strategy Analysis


EES FX Offers custom programming of your trading system or custom indicator. 
This is a service, such as any other service, we quote based on the project request and charge by the hour, depending on the type of work involved, anywhere from $25 - $150/hr.  The average Expert Advisor costs between $800 - $2500 to develop.  There are no refunds on services.
Custom programming service can include for an additional fee:
  • Optimization of parameters
  • Validation and certification at preferred broker
  • Logical testing and analysis
  • Money Management analysis
Any information disclosed about your trading methods will be kept confidential, an NDA can be signed if requested (although in FX it would be difficult if not impossible to enforce).

http://eesfx.com/portal/general-support/custom-programming
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Saturday, August 13, 2011

United we Fall - Nafta & Banking

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Who is Herb Grubel

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herb_Grubel


Herbert G. (Herb) Grubel (born February 26, 1934 in Frankfurt, Germany) is a former Canadian politician. He represented the electoral district of Capilano—Howe Sound in the Canadian House of Commons from 1993 to 1997.
As a member of the Reform Party, Grubel defeated former federal cabinet minister Mary Collins in the 1993 election. He served as the party's finance critic from 1995 to 1997, and was controversial for his outspoken support of Canada moving toward a flat tax system.
Grubel did not run in the 1997 election. As of 2011 he is professor emeritus of economics at Simon Fraser University and senior fellow of the Fraser Institute. He has also worked at the economic faculties of Yale, Stanford, the University of Chicago and the University of Pennsylvania.
Grubel has published 27 books and more than 130 professional articles in economics, dealing with international trade and finance and a wide range of economic policy issues. One of his most important contributions to international economics is the Grubel–Lloyd index, which measures intra-industry trade of a particular product. While at the Fraser Institute Herbert published a paper titled: "The Case for the Amero: The Economics and Politics of a North American Monetary Union"[1], in which he proposed that Canada and the USA adopt a shared currency called the 'amero'.
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Tuesday, August 9, 2011

London Riots

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Monday, August 8, 2011

Investor makes nearly 1000% on 850 Million on US Downgrade in 1 day

A mystery investor or hedge fund reportedly made a bet of almost $1billion at odds of 10/1 last month that the U.S. would lose its AAA credit rating.

Now questions are being asked of whether the trader had inside information before placing the $850million bet in the futures market.
There were mounting rumours that investor George Soros, 80, famously known as ‘the man who broke the Bank of England’, could be involved.


Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2023809/Did-George-Soros-win-10-1-return-S-Ps-US-credit-rating-downgrade.html#ixzz1UTtekqD2
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Dow Skids 600, Worst Day Since Credit Crisis

http://www.cnbc.com/id/44058141 The Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged well-below the psychologically-significant 11,000 mark, led by BofA [BAC  6.51    -1.66  (-20.32%)   ] and Alcoa[AA  11.33    -1.46  (-11.42%)   ].
The S&P 500 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq finished down more than 6 percent each. August is already on track to be the worst month for both indexes since Oct. 2008.
The CBOE Volatility Index, widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, spiked above 40 to touch its highest level since Mar. 2009. 
All 10 S&P sectors were lower, led by banks, energy and materials. Financials have plunged more than 20 percent this year.
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Sunday, August 7, 2011

US Downgraded

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Friday, August 5, 2011

Goldman Revises All FX Pair Forecasts With Emphasis On USDJPY and USDCHF: Complete List Inside


Since our EUR/$ forecast tends to receive a lot of attention, we think it is worth noting that our unchanged forecast of 1.45, 1.50, 1.55 in 3, 6 and 12 months implies a EUR TWI appreciation of 2.7%, so that our EUR/$ forecast is to a significant degree a reflection of our view of broad USD weakness. That said, while additional policy steps in Europe are clearly and urgently needed in Europe at the current juncture, as pointed out by Dominic Wilson in the latest Global Market Views published earlier today, we believe that these will ultimately be taken, reinforcing our view that the 12-month direction for EUR/$ is in line with our forecast.

In the case of $/JPY, three factors drive our forecast change:
  • We expect Japan’s trade balance to improve as supply-chain disruptions continue to fade. When we looked at the empirical links between the Yen and Japanese BBoP flows in the 2009 Foreign Exchange Market, we found that the trade flows were important drivers of the Yen. Thus, the improvement in the Japanese trade position is likely to be positive for the Yen. 
  • Our examination of Japanese portfolio flows shows stronger than usual inflows relative to history. This suggests that the earthquake has changed Japanese appetite for foreign assets. On the assumption that a small proportion of these flows are unhedged, this does point to Yen strength. Less appetite for foreign bonds/repatriation could be a reflection of the need to keep funds at home for the rebuilding effort; therefore, outflows are only likely to increase again once the rebuilding effort is complete. Again, we see this as JPY-positive on our forecast horizon. 
  • Lastly, a key element of our global forecast changes is the downward revision in our US 10-year Treasury yield forecast, which brings our forecasts for December 2011 and December 2012 to 3.00% and 3.50% from 3.75% and 4.25% previously. We see this as reinforcing our Dollar-bearish bias, also in line with this forecast change. Of course, it is also the case that—as part of all this—the probability of intervention has increased, as highlighted this week by Japan’s first intervention since March. However, the fact that the intervention was unilateral and found little policy support among the G-7 suggests to us that it will not be sufficient to reverse the $/JPY down trend. Fiona Lake has discussed the JPY dynamics in detail in a Global Markets Daily this week.
With respect to our EUR/CHF forecast, we have argued extensively for CHF appreciation but the recent rally has gone beyond our original
expectations. Given the significant appreciation pressures, we recognize the potential for the CHF to rally further in the near term to 1.05. And, of course, if Euro-zone tensions escalate further, parity should not be excluded. This is, however, not our baseline view. Ultimately, we think that European policymakers will take needed policy steps to meaningfully reduce the Euro-zone risk premium weighing on the EUR. As a result, we see the risk premium that weighs on EUR/CHF fading somewhat on a one-year horizon. This will allow EUR/CHF to head somewhat closer towards its ‘fair value’, which our GSDEER model currently puts at 1.44.

Elsewhere, our forecast revisions reflect a combination of weaker growth and a marking-to-market. Notable changes are for the TRY, which we revise weaker on a 12-month horizon ($/TRY from 1.55 to 1.63), reflecting the results of the newly introduced monetary easing by the CBRT.
In Latam, the notable forecast change is for the MXN, which we revise weaker on a 12-month horizon ($/MXN to 11.90 from 11.50) on the back of our downgrading of Mexico’s growth from 4.4% to 4.1% this year and from 4.5% to 3.9% in 2012.

Finally, in non-Japan Asia, our forecast changes generally reflect a marking-to-market in the near term. The exception is India, where we are upgrading our forecast to 44.00, 43.70, 43.00 in 3, 6 and 12 months from 46.00, 46.20 and 47.00 previously, on a more favourable balance of payments, and in particular a pick-up in FDI inflows.
And the summary table:
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Market panic spreads

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Violent crime increases as economy collapses

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Monday, August 1, 2011

House passes debt bill

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Sunday, July 31, 2011

WSJ Live Blog

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Debt Deal Done?

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