On the Brink in Italy

GUIDONIA, Italy — Emanuele Tedeschi wiped  sawdust from his hands and gestured around the cavernous woodworking factory that has been in his family for two  generations. The big machines, which used to run overtime carving  custom furnishings for private homes, Roman palazzi  and even the  Vatican,  sat idle on a shop floor nearly devoid of workers.

'‘A year and a half ago, the noise from production was so loud that  you had to shout to be heard,’' said Mr. Tedeschi, walking amid  pallets of cherry and other fine woods stacked up and waiting for a purpose.

Since a government austerity plan designed to shield Italy from  Europe’s debt crisis took hold last year, the economy has tumbled  into one of worst recessions of any euro zone country, and Mr.  Tedeschi’s orders have all but dried up.  His company, Temeca, is still in business. For now.

But among Italy’s estimated six  million companies, businesses of all  sizes have been going belly up at the rate of 1,000 a day over the  last year, especially among the small and midsize companies that  represent the backbone of Italy’s 1.5 trillion euro, or $2 trillion, economy.

The situation has become more urgent after inconclusive elections  in February that left politics in Rome gridlocked. '‘With no one  governing the country, there will be more paralysis, so things will get worse,’' said Mr. Tedeschi, 49, casting a worried glance at his wife and their 23-year-old son. They help fill the trickle of orders, now that Mr. Tedeschi has had to lay off 6 of the 11 full-time employees he had in mid-2011.

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/03/12/business/global/12iht-euitaly12.html

Paulson Said to Explore Puerto Rico as Home With Low Tax

Ten wealthy Americans have already taken advantage of the year-old Puerto Rican law that lets new residents pay no local or U.S. federal taxes on capital gains, according to Alberto Baco Bague, Secretary of Economic Development and Commerce of Puerto Rico. The marginal tax rate for affluent New Yorkers can exceed 50 percent on ordinary income.

Paulson, 57, recently looked at real estate in the exclusive Condado neighborhood of San Juan, where an 8,379- square-foot penthouse, complete with six underground parking spaces, lists for $5 million. The area is home to St. John’s School, a private English-language academy where he and his wife could send their two children, said the people, who asked not to be named because the discussions were private.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-03-11/paulson-said-to-explore-puerto-rico-as-home-with-low-tax.html

Dow Stock Market High, Is It Really 2007 Again?

We all know the headline unemployment rate is a farce. So fraudulent is the headline rate in fact that the not-so-US Fed has decided to peg its overnight interest rate policy decisions to whatever number the BLS happens to crank out. Go below the target of the day and up go rates and into the meat grinder goes what is left of the US Economy.

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article39395.html

Dow and Silver in Gold Terms

The Dow on Gold's terms:

• During January 2000 gold traded at an average price of $284.32
• January 2000 the Dow was 10,900
• 10,900/$284.32 per ounce = 38.33 gold ounces to buy the Dow

Today gold is trading at $1570.90 while the Dow Jones (DJIA) continues to break records, up another 30 points as I write to 14,284.

"At first, the drop in the dollar simply offset the apparent rise in home prices, and prices in gold worked sideways until 2006. But when home prices began to fall in dollar terms, and dollars were themselves falling in value, the double-whammy pushed true home prices down to levels not seen since the late 1980s. In fact, they set a new record, the lowest level since the index was first published. This means that most homes purchased in the last 20 years are now worth less than the original purchase price, even if they show gains of 100%, 200%, or more, in dollar terms." ~ pricedingold.com

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article39400.html

Fugitive Fund Manager Stuffed Underwear With Cash, Fled

The German fugitive hedge fund manager who more than five years ago fled the Spanish island of Mallorca with $500,000 hidden in his underwear and luggage faces U.S. charges after his arrest at the Uffizi Gallery in Florence.

Florian Homm, 53, was taken into custody by Italian police at 12:30 p.m. on March 8 at the world-famous museum that houses Sandro Botticelli’s Birth of Venus and Leonardo da Vinci’s Annunciation.

The arrest, by Homm’s own account as well as that of U.S. prosecutors, followed his 2007 decision to leave behind a life of wealth, castles and “bimbos.” During his escape, he held a Liberian diplomatic passport as well as German and Irish passports, according to the Federal Bureau of Investigation.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-03-08/fugitive-hedge-fund-manager-homm-arrested-at-gallery.html

Wealth Inequality in America

http://economy.money.cnn.com/2013/03/08/wealth-video/?iid=HP_LN

BRICS agree to use credit in local currencies

The BRICS - Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa - have agreed to provide credit to each other in local currencies. Officials say the deal will facilitate economic growth in times of crisis.

The currency swap deal is aimed at promoting trade and investment in local currencies as well as to cut transaction costs.  It’s also seen as a step to replace the dollar as a reserve currency in trade between BRICS.

http://rt.com/business/brics-currencies-credit-deal-755/

Fed is failing to boost lending

A new study, which was published on Monday by the National Bureau of Economic Research, suggests that the Federal Reserve's policy of using ultra-low interest rates in order to encourage lending, might be doing the opposite...

http://finance.fortune.cnn.com/2013/03/05/federal-reserve-bernanke-lending/?iid=HP_LN

China "fully prepared" for currency war: banker

AFP - A top Chinese banker said Beijing is "fully prepared" for a currency war as he urged the world to abide by a consensus reached by the G20 to avert confrontation, state media reported on Saturday.

Yi Gang, deputy governor of China's central bank, issued the call after G20 finance ministers last month moved to calm fears of a looming war on the currency markets at a meeting in Moscow.

Those fears have largely been fuelled by the recent steep decline in the Japanese yen, which critics have accused Tokyo of manipulating to give its manufacturers a competitive edge in key export markets over Asian rivals.

Yi said a currency war could be avoided if major countries observed the G20 consensus that monetary policy should primarily serve as a tool for domestic economy, the Xinhua report said.

But China "is fully prepared", he added.

"In terms of both monetary policies and other mechanism arrangement, China will take into full account the quantitative easing policies implemented by central banks of foreign countries."

South Korea's incoming president Park Geun-Hye has also signalled her willingness to step in to stabilise the won and protect exporters battling a stronger Korean currency and a weaker yen.

China "fully prepared" for currency war: banker - FRANCE 24

Tax bills for rich families approach 30-year high

WASHINGTON (AP) -- The poor rich.

With Washington gridlocked again over whether to raise their taxes, it turns out wealthy families already are paying some of their biggest federal tax bills in decades even as the rest of the population continues to pay at historically low rates.

President Barack Obama and Democratic leaders in Congress say the wealthy must pay their fair share if the federal government is ever going to fix its finances and reduce the budget deficit to a manageable level.

A new analysis, however, shows that average tax bills for high-income families rarely have been higher since the Congressional Budget Office began tracking the data in 1979. Middle- and low-income families aren't paying as much as they used to.

For 2013, families with incomes in the top 20 percent of the nation will pay an average of 27.2 percent of their income in federal taxes, according to projections by the Tax Policy Center, a research organization based in Washington. The top 1 percent of households, those with incomes averaging $1.4 million, will pay an average of 35.5 percent.

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_TAXING_THE_RICH?SITE=CAOAK&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT

Jamie Dimon: That's why I'm richer than you

FORTUNE -- At JPMorgan Chase's annual investor day on Tuesday, CEO Jamie Dimon answered one analyst's question by saying, "That's why I'm richer than you."

Zing. The line got a bunch of laughs. And it quickly became a headline for articles recounting the Q and lack of A between Dimon and the Credit Agricole analyst Mike Mayo, who has the reputation of being one of the few analysts to be tough on Wall Street CEOs.

But what did Dimon mean by it? Mayo's question was about bank capital. European regulators are requiring banks there to hold more capital than U.S. rivals. Mayo wanted to know if that would give those banks, in this case UBS, an advantage over JPMorgan (JPM) in attracting clients who want a safe place for their money.

- See more at: http://finance.fortune.cnn.com/2013/02/27/jamie-dimon-richer-than-you/?iid=HP_River#sthash.H4Wa3m5W.na7qhxdm.dpuf


http://news.firedoglake.com/2013/02/28/jamie-dimon-thats-why-im-richer-than-you/ At a J.P. Morgan investor event this week Mike Mayo, an analyst at CLSA, who has been a critic of large banks and, at times, Dimon, asked if J.P. Morgan wasn’t at a competitive disadvantage compared to more highly capitalized peers.

Mayo: I think what I hear UBS saying in the presentation is that if I’m an affluent customer I’ll feel a lot better going to UBS if they have 13.5 (percent) capital ratio than another big bank with a 10 percent ratio. Do you agree with that?

Dimon: You would go to UBS and not JPMorgan?

Mayo: I didn’t say that. That’s their argument.

Dimon: That’s why I’m richer than you.

GBP worst performing currency this year

On the heels of Abe's final decision to appoint a somewhat middle-of-the-road 'dove' as BoJ Governor, we thought it appropriate to look at the year's FX performance to see who is 'winning' the currency wars so far this year. The answer may surprise you (or not if you had read this or this).

GBP (blue) is the 'worst'-performing currency versus the USD this year - having overtaken the JPY in the last two days...higher on the chart below is USD strength

Interestingly, given US equity performance YTD, the USD is 2.25% stronger on the year against a broad basket of currencies.

The USD is 'seasonally' strong in Q1 on average over the past 30 years but this rise is quite remarkable relative to that average and we can only imagine what impact this will have on corporate earnings for Q1 as the S&P 500's 46% overseas revenues gets notched down on the income statement.

Charts: Bloomberg

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-02-28/name-worst-performing-currency-year

Asking the right questions about Italy

Basically Berlusconi represents a return to Nationalism and a repudiation of the measures imposed upon Italy by Berlin/Brussels (The European Union). Grillo represents something stronger which is a total rejection of Berlin/Brussels (The European Union) and a demand that Italy return to self-governance.  Grillo’s party won more votes than any other party and taken together, Berlusconi’s coalition and the 5 Star Party won the vast majority of votes at just under sixty percent. Yes, there are other national issues such as corruption and nepotism and so forth that relate strictly to the political situation in Italy but again, these are the small questions and far less significant to the central question of what will happen to the European Union as a result of the vote of the Italian people.
 
I first direct your consideration to this; if it can happen in Italy then why not in Greece, Spain, Portugal or France? People in other countries will take heart from Grillo’s attempt and then success and the mob may begin to stir. However Italy is going to work out and whatever alliances may be made or whether there will be a second vote; the writing is emblazoned now clearly on the wall which declares opposition to living under the dictums handed down from other countries and enforced by the money that may or not be parceled out to the Italian nation. This is clearly defined by the total rejection of Monti and the Brussels/Berlin austerity measures that he put in place. The vote for Monti at just under ten percent is a ringing condemnation of the European Union by the people of Italy. In fact I would say that the Italian elections are exactly what the European Union has feared most, the very most, which is the rejection of the Brussels/Berlin governance by those who ultimately matter which are the people of a nation. I think it can now be said with a good degree of accuracy that the Italian people took a long hard look at the European Union and voted, “NO!”
 
What most people have not grasped yet, but the dawning will come, is that a Referendum has just taken place in Italy. All of the political upheaval in Italy was caused by anger and frustration with the European Union and their policies. This is what drove the election and not to appreciate this is a serious mistake. The EU is now cornered. This is the third largest nation in the Union and the voters, the people, have just turned out a majority that clearly and resolutely said “Basta!” (Enough!). I would say that how all of any of this works itself out is anyone’s guess now but I would also say that what has happened, like a wife catching her husband with another woman, will forever change the relationship. If the bureaucrats and technocrats in Brussels wanted to know what Dante’s Inferno looked like they have only to pay attention this morning. They can stare at it now.

http://www.zerohedge.com/print/470458

Fed Faces Explaining Billion-Dollar Losses in QE Exit Stress

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke’s efforts to rescue the economy could result in more than a half trillion dollars of paper losses on the central bank’s books if interest rates rise abruptly from recent levels.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-02-26/fed-faces-explaining-billion-dollar-losses-in-stress-of-qe3-exit.html

Greece Likely to Exit Euro This Year, FX Concept’s Taylor Says

Greece will probably leave the euro as soon as next month as the government runs out of cash and European institutions fail to lend more to the nation, according to John Taylor of hedge fund FX Concepts LLC.

“This summer I think is very likely,” Taylor, founder and chief executive officer of FX Concepts in New York, said today in an interview on Bloomberg Television’s “Inside Track” with Erik Schatzker and Sara Eisen. “The Europeans aren’t going to give them the money, the International Monetary Fund’s not going to give them an OK. They will be out of money in June.”

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-05-08/greece-likely-to-exit-euro-this-year-fx-concept-s-taylor-says.html