Is Citi The Next AIG?

Earlier today, when we were conducting a routine check with the Office of the Currency Comptroller's on the total notional amount of derivatives held at the Big 4 banks in the context of the "JPMorgan break up" story, we found something stunning: using the latest, just released Q3 OCC data, JPMorgan is no longer America's undisputed derivatives king. Well, it still is at the HoldCo level, where it is number one in terms of notional derivatives with $65.5 trillion, but when one steps a level lower, namely the FDIC-insured commercial bank (the National Association or N.A.) level, something quite disturbing emerges. This:

As the chart above, which references Table 1 in the Q3 OCC report, shows Citigroup, or rather its FDIC-insured Citibank National Association entity, just surpassed JPM and is now the biggest single holder of total derivatives in the US. Furthermore, as the charts below show, while every other bank was derisking its balance sheet, Citi not only increased its total derivative holdings by $1 trillion in Q2, but by a whopping, and perhaps even record, $9 trillion in the just concluded third quarter to $70.2 trillion!

Here is Citi in context:

What is the reason for the surge in total derivative exposure? was it futures, options, forward or CDS? Neither. The answer: OTC traded swaps...

... which soared by $5 trillion in Q2 and over $8 trillion - or a massive 20% in just one quarter - in Q3 to a whopping $49 trillion, $16 trillion more than the OTC swaps held by JPMorgan or Goldman Sachs, and more than double the swaps held by Bank of America!

And that's not all: perhaps what is most bizarre is that Citigroup is the one bank whose HoldCo holds less derivatives, or $64.8 trillion, than its FDIC-insured N.A. OpCo which has $70.3 trillion in derivative notional exposure. For those wondering: this was not the case in the second quarter when the HoldCo ($61.8 trillion) held more derivatives than Citi's FDIC-insured bank ($61.1 trillion).

Then we started thinking:

Citigroup... swaps... Citigroup... swaps...

and a lightbulb click, because we remembered that it was none other than Citigroup that crafted the legislation on the swaps push-out provision which passed Congress without nary a peep from either side of the aisle, and which put taxpayers on the hook for FDIC-insured derivative exposure- and in Citi's own case a soaring $70 trillion as of September 30, 2014:

We also revealed that, not surprisingly, the main backer of the bill is notorious Wall Street puppet Jim Himes (D-Conn.) the man BusinessWeek branded "Wall Street's Favorite Democrat" who also happens to be a former Goldman Sachs employee.

And yet, despite all these critical recollections, many questions remains, such as:

• Why does Citi's FDIC-insured bank suddenly have more derivative notional exposure than its HoldCo: something which is generally without precedent?
• Why, when every other Big 4 bank is derisking its balance sheet and reducing its derivative exposure in light of far more stringent capital requirements, is Citigroup adding to its derivative notional and swap exposure at an unprecedented, feverish pace, which saw the bank boost its OTC Swaps holdings by 20% in just one quarter?
• When Congress was voting for the swaps push-out legislation, the Q3 OCC data was not yet publicly available. Was anyone in Congress aware that some $9 trillion had been added to the tally of taxpayer insured derivatives held at Citibank NA as of September 30.
• What is Citigroups and Citibank's total derivative and total swap exposure as of December 31, and has it continue to soar at a rate of roughly $10 trillion per quarter?

And perhaps most impotantly: what is the underlying trade that requires Citigroup to keep adding to its swap exposure at a time when increasing volatility is forcing all other banks to unwind swaps in order to minimize VaR and be in compliance with Fed capitalization requirements?

And then another lightbulb went over our heads: the last entity to do this was, drumroll, JPMorgan, in early 2013, just before its London whale trade imploded and when the bank's attempt to corner the IG9 market failed miserably but not before JPM's CIO trading desk doubled down, then doubled down again and doubled down some more taking their total derivative exposure to several hundred billion... before it all came crashing down.

Now, we are not saying Citigroup is in the same boat as JPM's infamous CIO which led to congressional hearings and what not - especially since $250 billion was manageable; $50 trillion will not be - but we do wonder: just what is going on behind the massivaly margined scenes if Citi is following every page in the London Whale book and on top of everything it also had to lobby and petition Congress to change the law just so whatever it is that Citigroup is doing, it could continue to do, and what's more: with explicit taxpayer-funded backing.

Which leads us to the final question:

• Is Citigroup about to become the "New Normal" AIG?

Source: OCC

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-01-05/citi-next-aig-70-trillion-reasons-why-citigroup-and-congress-scrambled-pass-swaps-pu

Bidless Euro Crashes To Level Not Seen Since March 2006

Having closed the Friday session less than 1 pip above the hugely important 1.2000 level below which there lay many stops, following this weekend's news onslaught which seemed like a deja vu of the newsflow from the fall of 2011, where the main catalyst was the Reuters report that Germany is preparing to let Greece go once and for all (with the subsequent attempts at retraction barely noticed), or maybe just because someone wanted to price in a little more of the more than fully priced in by now ECB QE - which very well may not happen - the moment the EURUSD opened for trading it took out not only the critical 1.2000 stops, but within milliseconds the Euro found itself bidless and crashed to a low of 1.1864, promptly taking out the lows set in May 2010 when the first Greek bailout took place, and tumbled to a level not seen since March of 2006!

Following the initial collapse the Euro did stage a modest comeback, but even the dead cat bounce appears to be fading and at this rate Mario Draghi will have no choice but to reprise his July 2012 "whatever it takes" melodrama or else any bank, pension fund or institution that is still long the EUR may not make it past tomorrow's margin calls.

Paradoxically, in the newer-normal, EUR weakness which implicitly means USD strenght, the plunge in the Euro means another spike in the USDJPY to which all the E-mini algos are correlating, so in the off chance that the EUR collapses to parity, sending the Yen crashing to Albert Edwards' 135 level, may be just what the market needed to finally hit Goldman's 2015 year end target of 2200 a year or so early.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-01-04/bidless-euro-crashes-level-not-seen-march-2006

Open a Forex Account

Russia's "Startling" Proposal To Europe: Dump The US, Join The Eurasian Economic Union

Slowly but surely Europe is figuring out that as a result of the western economic and financial blockade of Russian, it is Europe itself that is suffering the most. And while Germany was first to acknowledge this late in 2014 when its economy swooned and is now on the verge of a recession, now others are catching on. Case in point: the former head of the European Commission, and Italy’s former Prime Minister, Romano Prodi who told Messaggero newspaper that the "weaker Russian economy is extremely unprofitable for Italy."

The other details from Prodi's statement:

Lowered prices in the international energy markets have positive aspects for the Italian consumers, who pay less for the fuel, but the effect will be only short-term. In the long-term however the weaker economic situation in countries producing energy resources, caused by lower oil and gas prices, mostly in Russia, is extremely unprofitable for Italy, he said.

“The lowering of the oil and gas prices in combination with the sanctions, pushed by the Ukrainian crisis, will drop the Russian GPD by five percent per annum, and thus it will cause cutting of the Italian export by about 50%,” Prodi said.

“Setting aside the uselessness or imminence of the sanctions, one should highlight a clear skew: regardless of the rouble rate against dollar, which is lower by almost a half, the American export to Russia is growing, while the export from Europe is shrinking.”

In other words, just as slowly, the world is starting to grasp the bottom line: it is not the financial exposure to Russia, or the threat of financial contagion should Russia suffer a major recession or worse: it is something far simpler that will lead to the biggest harm for Europe's countries. The lack of trade. Because while central banks can monetize everything, leading to an unprecedented asset bubble which if only for the time being boosts investor and consumer confidence, they can't print trade - that all important driver of growth in a globalized world long before central banks were set to monetize over $1 trillion in bonds each and every year to mask the fact that the world is deep in a global depression.

Which is why we read the following report written in yesterday's Deutsche Wirtschafts Nachrichten with great interest because it goes right to the bottom line. In it Russia has a not so modest proposal to Europe: dump trade with the US, whose call for Russian "costs" has cost you another year of declining economic growth, and instead join the Eurasian Economic Union! From the source:

Russia has presented a startling proposal to overcome the tensions with the EU: The EU should renounce the free trade agreement with the United States TTIP and enter into a partnership with the newly established Eurasian Economic Union instead. A free trade zone with the neighbors would make more sense than a deal with the US.

It surely would, but then how will Europe feign outrage when the NSA is found to have spied yet again on its "closest trading partners?" Some more on Russia's proposal from EUobserver:

Vladimir Chizhov told EUobserver: “Our idea is to start official contacts between the EU and the EAEU as soon as possible. [German] chancellor Angela Merkel talked about this not long ago. The EU sanctions [on Russia] are not a hindrance”.

“I think that common sense advises us to explore the possibility of establishing a common economic space in the Eurasian region, including the focus countries of the Eastern Partnership [an EU policy on closer ties with Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine]".

"We might think of a free trade zone encompassing all of the interested parties in Eurasia”.

He described the new Russia-led bloc as a better partner for the EU than the US, with a dig at health standards in the US food industry.

“Do you believe it is wise to spend so much political energy on a free trade zone with the USA while you have more natural partners at your side, closer to home? We don’t even chlorinate our chickens”, the ambassador said.

The treaty establishing the Eurasian Union entered into life on Thursday (1 January).

It includes Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Russia, with Kyrgyzstan to join in May.

Modelled on the EU, it has a Moscow-based executive body, the Eurasian Economic Commission, and a political body, the Supreme Eurasian Economic Council, where member states’ leaders take decisions by unanimity.

It has free movement of workers and a single market for construction, retail, and tourism. Over the next 10 years, it aims to create a court in Minsk, a financial regulator in Astana and, possibly, to open Eurasian Economic Commission offices in Astana, Bishkek, Minsk, and Yerevan.

It also aims to launch free movement of capital, goods, and services, and to extend its single market to 40 other sectors, with pharmaceuticals next in line in 2016.

And as a reminder: The Eurasian Economic Union, a trade bloc of former Soviet states, expanded to four nations Friday when Armenia formally joined, a day after the union between Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan began.

So the ball is in your court, Europe: will it be a triple-dip (and soon thereafter quadruple: see Japan) recession as your Goldman-controlled central bank plunders ever more of what little is left of middle-class wealth with promises that this year - for real - is when it all turns around, or will Europe acknowledge it has had enough and shifts its strategic, and trade, focus from west (speaking of the TTIP, Germany's agriculture minister just said "We can't protect every sausage" referring to the TTIP) to east?

Considering just whose interests are represented by the unelected bureaucrats in Brussels, we won't be holding our breath.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-01-04/russias-startling-proposal-europe-dump-us-join-eurasian-economic-union

The Fed and Interest Rates Are Just Political Theater

Last week was a wash.

It was, after all, a holiday week. Most traders on Wall Street had left their trading desks well before Wednesday. Volume was light allowing those traders who were still manning the helm will have a free-for-all pushing the market this way and that.

So trying to make sense of this week is a pointless exercise. We are much better off concerning ourselves with the big picture.

The Big Picture is that the Fed has stopped its QE programs. As a result, investor attention has shifted to when the Fed will begin raising interest rates. Will the first rate hike come in mid-2015? Earlier? Later?

In reality, most of this is political theater. We have not had a Hawkish Fed in well over 20 years (possibly 30). As far as Greenspan, Bernanke, and Yellen have been concerned, the answer to any and all problems in the financial system has been to keep interest rates too low, print money, and buy assets from Wall Street (a kind of “cash for securities trash”)

Why does this matter? Because the last 20 years has shown us that the Fed immediately cuts rates and turns on the printing press at the first sign of trouble. Given the fragile state of the global economy and financial markets, the likelihood of the Fed raising rates in a significant or unexpected way is next to none.

Indeed, Ben Bernanke told a group of hedge fund insiders that rates will likely not be normalized in his lifetime (he’s currently 61, so he’s talking 20-30 years).

Again, all of this is political theater. The big story for the markets is not interest rates. It is the US Dollar. For over 40 years, the world has been borrowing US Dollars to finance real estate development, infrastructure projects,  mergers and acquisitions, Research and Development projects, and the more. Today, globally, corporates and investors have borrowed over $9 TRILLION in US Dollars to finance other investments.

To put this number into perspective, it is equal to the economies of Japan and Germany combined (they are the third and fourth largest economies in the world by the way).

Why does this matter?

Because when you borrow in US Dollars to invest elsewhere, you are effectively shorting the US Dollar. If the US Dollar begins to rally (strengthen) you can blow up very VERY quickly.

Take a look at this chart.

This is the single largest chart pattern in financial history. It is a gigantic falling wedge pattern spanning over 40 years. When it breaks out to the upside, we’re potentially facing a 5+ years US Dollar bull market that will see the US Dollar rising to 120 if not 130.

And we just began to break it this year.

The world is awash in debt, most of it borrowed in US Dollars. When the Great Deleveraging truly begins, the US Dollar will rise rapidly as investors are forced to either pay their debts back (shrinking the amount of Dollars in the financial system) or default (ditto).

This would fuel a massive collapse in inflated asset prices around the globe. Anything and everything that was financed by cheap Dollars would collapse. Entire companies would go bust… as would multiple sovereign nations.

And this process has just begun. This is why emerging market currencies are collapsing. Brazil’s Real has lost over 20% of its value against the US Dollar in the last six months. The Australian Dollar has lost 16%. And on and on.

The real story for the world is not interest rates… it is that the era of cheap US Dollar financing everything on the planet has ended. What’s coming will not be pretty for anyone or anything that relies on cheap Dollars (this includes stocks, bonds, and the like).

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-12-26/fed-and-interest-rates-are-just-political-theater

Putin: It Is Time to Play Your Ace in the Hole

The entire world is watching Putin play poker with the Western politicians lead by Obama and followed by Washington quislings in London, Brussels and Berlin. America's goal since the end of the Cold War has been to weaken by financial, economic and, if necessary, military means any real competition to its global financial and resource domination through the petrodollar and dollar world reserve currency status.

The current trade and economic sanctions against Russia and Iran follow this time-tested action that is never successful on its own, as we know from the 50-plus-year blockade of Cuba. But this strategy can lead to opposition nations retaliating by military means, often their only alternative to end blockades etc., which are an act of war and allow the US and other democracies to bring their ultimate superior military power to bare against the offending sovereign state. This worked for Lincoln against the Confederate States of America, by Woodrow Wilson against the Central Powers before World War One, against the Japanese Empire before World War Two, Iraq, Libya – the list is endless.

Recently the US has created the oil price collapse, working closely with its client state Saudi Arabia, in order to weaken the economic power of both Iran and Russia, the two main nations opposing US hegemony, foreign policy and petrodollar policy. Yes, this will play havoc with the US shale oil industry as well as London's North Sea oil industry but oil profits pale in comparison to the importance of maintaining Western power over Russia and China.

I hope Putin realizes the US is not playing games here, as this is a financial and strategic game to the death for Washington and it's Western allies that have foolishly followed the Goldman Sachs/central banking cartel's deadly sovereign debt recipe and for growth and prosperity. The time is up; the debts can never be repaid and sooner or later must be repudiated one way or the other.

China is waiting in the wings as the new world economic power and while it is too big to challenge, US strategy is to take out its top two allies, Iran and Russia, to buy time for Wall Street and Washington. The strategy might be a competitive economic course of action but the risk of military consequences and even a third world war loom on the horizon and no country has ever defeated Russia in a land attack. This is risky brinkmanship just to protect our banking and Wall Street elites and their profits at the expense of the American people, I might add, but the US has done this before.

Is This Just a Repeat of the Versailles Treaty, Russian-style?

This has all happened before. It's the same old game with different players. I fear we are watching a repeat of the Versailles Treaty, Russian-style. If you look closely at real history rather than the establishment-directed propaganda dished out to the public, you'll realize that the Western financial elites and central banking cartel seldom change tactics. Why should they? Their financial empires continue to grow during all major wars and financial crises and if they should guess wrong, then they get taxpayers to bail them out.

The Goldman Sachs, Rothschild and Soros types control the Western democracies as well as the financial markets and use paid or blackmailed cheerleaders and front men to advance their best interests to the populace as acceptable economic or political policies.

For example, Woodrow Wilson's Fourteen Points statement given on January 8, 1918, claiming the war and US intervention was a moral cause to advance peace in Europe after World War One, was one of the leading reasons the Germans sued for peace. In hindsight, we know that American intervention was really instituted to prevent an Allied loss or negotiated settlement that could make it impossible for French and British banks to pay back their massive loans to the US banking establishment and thereby bankrupting our leading banks of the day.

Once the war was over the platitudes about freedom, self-determination and making the world safe for democracy dissolved into the Treaty of Versailles, probably one of the most vengeful and unfair peace treaties ever forced on a defeated foe. The entire Austrian-Hungarian empire was totally destroyed except for the small area of present Austria and Germany, which was stripped of much of its territory and subjected to a vengeful, unpayable war debt comparable to America's current national debt today. Sadly, the treaty created the public anger and economic chaos that eventually brought Hitler to power and set the stage for the Second World War.

So Where Does Russia Go from Here?

First, the US cable pundits are suggesting that Putin might retaliate by invading Ukraine. Why would Russia want Ukraine? Except for substantial agricultural resources that can be purchased on the open market, this is a bankrupt country with a long list of failed governments. The country has become a pawn in the battle between East and West, and its people have already suffered so much. Now Russia might move in the East to protect Russian-speaking areas and could be willing to suffer the additional economic consequences of creating a land bridge to Crimea but the military option appears quite limited and counter-productive at best.

No nation will win a shooting war between the US, UK and EU versus Russia and China. The consequences are too horrible to be contemplated but Russia has an ace in the hole that can win the financial and economic battle going on today.

First, Russia should join with China in a new gold, oil and natural resource backed monetary union as an alternative to the failed debt democracy model pushed by Wall Street, the central bank cartel and self-serving politicians in the West. It simply does not work in the long term to finance prosperity and improved standards of living through mountains of debt placed on future generations.

Washington has destroyed every tax haven and bit of personal and financial privacy in the world because of its desperate need for revenue. Every financial haven has caved, including Switzerland, because they cannot hope to prevail against the US, UK and EU. The US intends to make Russia a pariah state and cut it off from trade, funds transfer, banking and Western credit markets. It will not relent until Putin is overthrown and Russia is compliant with and a supporter of the New World Order. Next in line following Russia will be China. Thus, a monetary union could provide the needed support for Russia necessary to guarantee the independence and self-determination of China.

Second, Russia should act offensively rather than defensively on the financial front by creating corporate tax-free/low income tax zones and welcoming corporations, successful individuals and entrepreneurs to take up residence and create jobs and prosperity. The Hong Kong model does work to create industry, service industry and free-market prosperity and to win, Russia needs far more than a resource-based economy.

Russia needs more population and a larger middle class and should offer residency and citizenship opportunities to productive and successful workers, entrepreneurial businesses and corporations etc. with the right of reasonable financial and corporate privacy along with the low tax benefits.

Canada, the wonderful country I live and work in today, offers permanent residency benefits and citizenship to hundreds of thousands of foreigners wanting to work and immigrate to Canada together with low corporate tax benefits.

Russia can and should do the same, although the market will require bargain prices as Russia does not have the long history of rule of law, security and peace like Canada does. Russia should look at good climate areas like Crimea and other areas around the Black Sea and maybe Kaliningrad in the north directly in the middle of the EU.

Competititon, free markets, minimal regulation and low taxes are the 21st century solution to military aggression, over-indebted and resource-hungry empires. Putin said it best in his news conference last week.

"They won't leave [the bear] alone. They will always seek to chain it. And once it's chained, they'll rip out its teeth and claws. The nuclear deterrence, speaking in present-day terms. As soon as this happens, nobody will need [the bear] anymore. They'll stuff it. And start to put their hands on its Taiga [Siberian forest belt] after it. We've heard statements from Western officials that Russia's owning Siberia was not fair." – Vladimir Putin

Vladimir Putin, now is the time to play your ace in the hole. Russia can win the financial and economic war being waged against it but not by playing the same old game of poker where cheating prevails. Show the world that Russia is worthy of 21st century leadership in a peaceful and competitive manner by using the debt, currency and banking weaknesses of the West to defeat an opponent out to chain Russia as it has the rest of the world into surrender and serfdom.

If you are as concerned as I am about where the world is headed, consider securing a second home internationally in the right location as a means to protect you and your family. Think of it as lifestyle insurance.

As some readers are already aware, High Alert is building an exciting new community in South America. I strongly suggest you watch this short video presentation. After viewing, simply complete the information request form and I'll be happy to personally speak with you and share specific details about the community – click here now.

Additionally, I will be joining Jim Rogers, Anthony Wile, Wendy McElroy and others speaking at the New Colombia Conference May 13-17, 2015. Space is limited, so if you are interested in attending, click here now.

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article48785.html

China To Launch Yuan Swap Trading With Russian Rubles On Monday

The world was slow to wake up to the new reality in which China is now the de facto IMF sovereign backstop, as Zero Hedge described two weeks ago in "China Prepares To Bailout Russia" when we noted that a PBOC swap-line was meant to reduce the role of the US dollar if China and Russia need to help each other overcome a liquidity squeeze, something we first noted over two months ago in "China, Russia Sign CNY150 Billion Local-Currency Swap As Plunging Oil Prices Sting Putin."

In fact, it was only this week that Bloomberg reported that "China Offers Russia Help With Currency Swap Suggestion." But in order to fully backstop Russia away from a SWIFT-world in which the dollar reigns supreme, one extra step was necessary: the launching of direct FX trade involving the Russian and Chinese currencies, either spot or forward - a move away from purely theoretical bilateral FX trade agreements - which would not only enable and make direct currency trading more efficient by sidestepping the dollar entirely, but also allow Russian companies to budget in Chinese Yuan terms. It is no surprise then that this is precisely the missing step that was announced overnight, and will be implemented starting Monday.

From Bloomberg:

China will allow trading in forwards and swaps between the yuan and three more currencies in a bid to reduce foreign-exchange risks amid increased volatility in emerging markets.

The China Foreign Exchange Trade System will begin such contracts with Malaysia’s ringgit, Russia’s ruble, and the New Zealand dollar from Dec. 29, it said in a statement on its website today. That will extend the yuan’s swaps trading to 11 currencies on the interbank foreign-exchange market.

A plunge in Russia’s ruble this month to a record low sparked a selloff in developing nations’ assets, leading to a surge in currency volatility. The new contracts come amid efforts by China to increase the international use of the yuan, as the world’s second-largest economy promotes it as an alternative to the U.S. dollar for global trade and finance. Malaysia and Russia are China’s eighth and ninth biggest trading partners, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

“This will provide companies with better hedging tools, and at the same time, make currency trading more efficient,” said Ju Wang, a senior currency strategist at HSBC Holdings Plc in Hong Kong. “China won’t stop yuan globalization or capital-account opening because of the volatility in emerging market currencies.”

The CFETS is an agency under the People’s Bank of China.

So while the US continues to parade with "destroying" the Russian economy, even if it means crushing the shale industry, aka the only bright spot, and high-paying job-creating industry in the US economy over the past 5 years, Russia and China continue to be nudged by the west ever closer monetarily and strategically, until one day, as we have long predicted, China and Russia will announce a joint currency, one backed by both China's "surprising" gold reserves and Russia's commodity hoard. Then things will get interesting.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-12-26/china-launch-yuan-swap-trading-russian-rubles-monday

China Steps In as World's New Bank

Thanks to China, Christine Lagarde of the International Monetary Fund, Jim Yong Kim of the World Bank and Takehiko Nakao of the Asian Development Bank may no longer have much meaningful work to do.

Beijing's move to bail out Russia, on top of its recent aid for Venezuela and Argentina, signals the death of the post-war Bretton Woods world. It’s also marks the beginning of the end for America's linchpin role in the global economy and Japan's influence in Asia.

What is China's new Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank if not an ADB killer? If Japan, ADB's main benefactor, won't share the presidency with Asian peers, Beijing will just use its deep pockets to overpower it. Lagarde's and Kim’s shops also are looking at a future in which crisis-wracked governments call Beijing before Washington. 

China stepping up its role as lender of last resort upends an economic development game that's been decades in the making. The IMF, World Bank and ADB are bloated, change-adverse institutions.  When Ukraine received a $17 billion IMF-led bailout this year it was about shoring up a geopolitically important economy, not geopolitical blackmail.

Chinese President Xi Jinping's government doesn't care about upgrading economies, the health of tax regimes or central bank reserves. It cares about loyalty. The quid pro quo: For our generous assistance we expect your full support on everything from Taiwan to territorial disputes to deadening the West’s pesky focus on human rights.

This may sound hyperbolic; Russia, Argentina and Venezuela are already at odds with the U.S. and its allies. But what about Europe? In 2011 and 2012, it looked to Beijing to save euro bond markets through massive purchases. Expect more of this dynamic in 2015 should fresh turmoil hit the euro zone, at which time Beijing will expect European leaders to pull their diplomatic punches. What happens if the Federal Reserve’s tapering slams economies from India to Indonesia and governments look to China for help? Why would Cambodia, Laos or Vietnam bother with the IMF’s conditions when China writes big checks with few strings attached?

Beijing’s $24 billion currency swap program to help Russia is a sign of things to come. Russia, it's often said, is too nuclear to fail. As Moscow weathers the worst crisis since the 1998 default, it’s tempting to view China as a good global citizen. But Beijing is just enabling President Vladimir Putin, who’s now under zero pressure to diversify his economy away from oil. The same goes for China’s $2.3 billion currency swap with Argentina and its $4 billion loan to Venezuela. In the Chinese century, bad behavior has its rewards.

If ever there were a time for President Barack Obama to accelerate his "pivot" to Asia it's now. There's plenty to worry about as China tosses money at rogue governments like Sudan and Zimbabwe. But there’s also lots at stake for Asia's budding democracies. The so-called Washington consensus on economic policies isn't perfect, but is Beijing's model of autocratic state capitalism with scant press freedom really a better option? With China becoming Asia's sugar daddy, the temptation in, say, Myanmar might be to avoid the difficult process of creating credible institutions to oversee the economy.

There could be a silver lining to China lavishing its nearly $4 trillion of currency reserves on crisis-plagued nations: It might force the IMF, World Bank and ADB to raise their games. Competition, as Lagarde, Kim and Nakao would agree, is a good thing. But more likely, China's largess will encourage bad policy habits and impede development in ways that leave the global economy worse off.

http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2014-12-25/china-steps-in-as-worlds-new-bank 

Ruble Rallies 34% After Biggest Russian Intervention In 5 Years

Since the Russian Ruble troughed at almost 80 RUB/USD, it has rallied an impressive 34% erasing most of the dramatic devaluation of December. However, as The CBR just announced, this 'strength' came at a price. Russia burned through $15.7 billion of reserves in the week ending Dec 19th - the biggest percentage weekly drop in reserves since Jan 2009, leaving reserves below $400 billion (still a significant amount) for the first time since Aug 2009. While CBR explained much of this will come back as repo trades mature, Vladimir Putin turned inward, blaming the government for "defects" in restructuring the economy.

The Ruble has soared in the last 2 weeks...

On the heels of the biggest intervention in almost 5 years...

•  
• *RUSSIAN INTERNATIONAL RESERVES FALL $15.7B IN WEEK TO DEC. 19
• *RUSSIAN INTERNATIONAL RESERVES AT $398.9B
• *BANK OF RUSSIA SAYS DROP IN RESERVES MOSTLY DUE TO FX REPO
• *BANK OF RUSSIA: FUNDS USED IN FX REPO WILL RETURN TO RESERVES
• *RUSSIA RESERVES ALSO FELL ON REVALUATION AS USD GAINED VS EURO

But, as Sputnik news reports, it's not just external factors, Putin points his finger internally...

The difficulties in Russia’s economy are not only because of outside factors, including sanctions, but also because the government has not worked out some defects, Russian President Vladimir Putin said Thursday.

“The difficulties that we have run into carry not only an outside factor. They are not solely tied to some sorts of limitations of sanctions or limitations tied with the objective international environment, they are tied to our not working out defects that have accumulated over the years,” Putin said during a government meeting in Moscow.

Putin said the government has taken efforts in order to change the structure of the economy in order to give it a more innovative nature, but said the efforts were below the needed measures.

“Much has been done in this but the latest events have shown that this is insufficient,” Putin added.

Russia is currently facing an economic slowdown, with dramatic fluctuations seen recently in the value of the Russian ruble against the US dollar and the euro.

The weakening of the Russian national currency is attributed to low oil prices. The sale of oil accounts for a significant part of Russian budget revenues. Economic sanctions imposed on Moscow by the West in the wake of the Ukrainian crisis are also cited among the reasons for the economic slump.

During a December 18 televised press conference, the Russian president said that the country's economic situation could begin to improve in the first quarter of 2015, with Russia's economy recovering completely over the next few years.

*  *  *

Still it's not like $400 billion is going to disappear tomorrow - for those proclaiming Russia's imminent default. (CDS imply a mere 5% probability of default over the next year based on 25% recovery assumptions)

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-12-25/ruble-rallies-34-after-biggest-russian-intervention-5-years

Belarus In Full-Blown Hyperinflation Panic: Blocks News, Online Stores; Bans All FX Trading For 2 Years

"We have to do something with these Belarussian rubles," exclaims one Belarussian as she shops to turn worthless rubles (BYR) into physical assets. As AFP reports, The Belarussian currency was dragged down by the slide of the Russian ruble last week, leading authorities to impose draconian measures, forbid price increases even for imported goods, and warn people against panic. Now, however, in an effort to stem the flood of hyperinflating domestic prices, authorities have blocked online stores and news websites to stop the run on banks and shops as people scramble to secure their savings. One of the blocked news websites noted, it "looks like the authorities want to turn light panic over the fall of the Belarussian ruble into a real one," calling the blockages "December insanity."

And indeed they have stepped up the insanity, extending the halt in FX trading...

Today the Belarus central bank shocked its own population when it also announced full-blown capital controls designed, releasing additional measures to stem the "negative trends of currency and financial markets " including raising mandatory sales of FX revenue to 0%, suspending all OTC FX trading (so pretty much all FX), introducing a 30% fee on all FX purchases, "recommending" that banks halt BYR lending until February, and sending 1-yr interest rates on liquidity operations with banks to a eyewatering 50% in hopes this leads to an increase in BYR deposit rates. It will. What it won't lead to is stabilization in the deposit market as the natives realize they too are next up on the hyperinflation train.

End result:

through 2017...

• BELARUS HALTS OTC TRANSACTIONS IN FX UNTIL 2017: INTERFAX

UPDATE: Belarus Overnight Deposit Rate surges to 49%

As AFP reports,

Belarus blocked online stores and news websites Sunday, in an apparent attempt to stop a run on banks and shops as people rushed to secure their savings. In a statement Sunday, BelaPAN news company, which runs popular independent news websites Belapan.by and Naviny.by, said that the sites were blocked Saturday without any warning.

"Clearly the decision to block the IP addresses could only be taken by the authorities because in Belarus the government has monopoly on providing IPs," it said.

Other websites blocked Sunday were Charter97.by, BelarusPartisan.org, Udf.by and others with an independent news outlook. The blockage started on December 19, when the government announced that purchases of foreign currency will be taxed 30 percent and told all exporters to convert half of their foreign revenues into the local currency.

"Looks like the authorities want to turn light panic over the fall of the Belarussian ruble into a real one," Belarus Partisan website wrote, calling the blockages "December insanity." Internet shopping websites were also blocked en masse. Thirteen online stores were blocked Saturday for raising their prices or showing them in US dollars, deputy trade minister Irina Narkevich said, Interfax reported.

The government announced a moratorium on price increases for consumer goods and ordered domestic producers of appliances to "increase deliveries" and keep prices the same at the risk of their management being sacked. Belarussians lined up for hours to clear out their bank accounts and swept store shelves to secure their savings, stocking up on foreign-made appliances and housewares.

The Belarussian ruble has lost about half of its value since the beginning of the year, having been hit hard by the depreciation of the Russian ruble since its economy is heavily dependent on its giant neighbour. With foreign currency swiftly depleted in exchange offices, Belarussians even launched a black market website dollarnash.com where individuals could buy and sell dollars and euros.

This follows the previously noted implementation of a 30% FX transaction tax, which however now that all OTC FX trading is banned for 2 years or longer, will hardly be collected.

$ 460 million will bring to the Belarusian budget introduction of a 30% tax on the purchase of foreign currency in Belarus.This is the TV channel "Belarus 1" said First Deputy Minister of Finance of the country Maxim Ermolovich.

"Given the daily supply and demand in the foreign exchange market budget revenues will amount to about 5 trillion Belarusian rubles, or $ 460 million at the exchange rate of the National Bank", - he said. Recall, December 19 NBB announced the introduction of December 20 temporary levy of 30% on the purchase of foreign currency for individuals and legal entities in connection with the sharply increased demand for foreign currency in the domestic market of Belarus. Legal persons will pay the tax on the stock exchange, and individuals - in the form of bank commission when buying foreign currency.

As a result, expect to see more of this...

Keep in mind that the scenes shown above are what the BOJ, the ECB and the Fed would dub "success."

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-12-22/belarus-full-blown-hyperinflation-panic-blocks-news-online-stores-bans-all-fx-tradin