Will 2015 Be A Year Of Economic Disaster? 11 Perspectives

Submitted by Michael Snyder via The Economic Collapse blog,

Will 2015 be a year of financial crashes, economic chaos and the start of the next great worldwide depression?  Over the past couple of years, we have all watched as global financial bubbles have gotten larger and larger.  Despite predictions that they could burst at any time, they have just continued to expand.  But just like we witnessed in 2001 and 2008, all financial bubbles come to an end at some point, and when they do implode the pain can be extreme.

Personally, I am entirely convinced that the financial markets are more primed for a financial collapse now than they have been at any other time since the last crisis happened nearly seven years ago.  And I am certainly not alone.  At this point, the warning cries have become a deafening roar as a whole host of prominent voices have stepped forward to sound the alarm.  The following are 11 predictions of economic disaster in 2015 from top experts all over the globe…

#1 Bill Fleckenstein: “They are trying to make the stock market go up and drag the economy along with it. It’s not going to work. There’s going to be a big accident. When people realize that it’s all a charade, the dollar will tank, the stock market will tank, and hopefully bond markets will tank. Gold will rally in that period of time because it’s done what it’s done because people have assumed complete infallibility on the part of the central bankers.”

#2 John Ficenec: “In the US, Professor Robert Shiller’s cyclically adjusted price earnings ratio – or Shiller CAPE – for the S&P 500 is currently at 27.2, some 64pc above the historic average of 16.6. On only three occasions since 1882 has it been higher – in 1929, 2000 and 2007.”

#3 Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, one of the most respected economic journalists on the entire planet: “The eurozone will be in deflation by February, forlornly trying to ignite its damp wood by rubbing stones. Real interest rates will ratchet higher. The debt load will continue to rise at a faster pace than nominal GDP across Club Med. The region will sink deeper into a compound interest trap.”

#4 The Jerome Levy Forecasting Center, which correctly predicted the bursting of the subprime mortgage bubble in 2007: “Clearly the direction of most of the recent global economic news suggests movement toward a 2015 downturn.”

#5 Paul Craig Roberts: “At any time the Western house of cards could collapse. It (the financial system) is a house of cards. There are no economic fundamentals that support stock prices — the Dow Jones. There are no economic fundamentals that support the strong dollar…”

#6 David Tice: “I have the same kind of feel in ’98 and ’99; also ’05 and ’06.  This is going to end badly. I have every confidence in the world.”

#7 Liz Capo McCormick and Susanne Walker: “Get ready for a disastrous year for U.S. government bonds. That’s the message forecasters on Wall Street are sending.”

#8 Phoenix Capital Research: “Just about everything will be hit as well. Most of the ‘recovery’ of the last five years has been fueled by cheap borrowed Dollars. Now that the US Dollar has broken out of a multi-year range, you’re going to see more and more ‘risk assets’ (read: projects or investments fueled by borrowed Dollars) blow up. Oil is just the beginning, not a standalone story.

If things really pick up steam, there’s over $9 TRILLION worth of potential explosions waiting in the wings. Imagine if the entire economies of both Germany and Japan exploded and you’ve got a decent idea of the size of the potential impact on the financial system.”

#9 Rob Kirby: “What this breakdown in the crude oil price is going to spawn another financial crisis.  It will be tied to the junk debt that has been issued to finance the shale oil plays in North America.  It is reported to be in the area of half a trillion dollars worth of junk debt that is held largely on the books of large financial institutions in the western world.  When these bonds start to fail, they will jeopardize the future of these financial institutions.  I do believe that will be the signal for the Fed to come riding to the rescue with QE4.  I also think QE4 is likely going to be accompanied by bank bail-ins because we all know all western world countries have adopted bail-in legislation in their most recent budgets.  The financial elites are engineering the excuse for their next round of money printing . . .  and they will be confiscating money out of savings accounts and pension accounts.  That’s what I think is coming in the very near future.”

#10 John Ing: “The 2008 collapse was just a dress rehearsal compared to what the world is going to face this time around. This time we have governments which are even more highly leveraged than the private sector was.

So this time the collapse will be on a scale that is many magnitudes greater than what the world witnessed in 2008.”

#11 Gerald Celente: “What does the word confidence mean? Break it down. In this case confidence = con men and con game. That’s all it is. So people will lose confidence in the con men because they have already shown their cards. It’s a Ponzi scheme. So the con game is running out and they don’t have any more cards to play.

What are they going to do? They can’t raise interest rates. We saw what happened in the beginning of December when the equity markets started to unravel. So it will be a loss of confidence in the con game and the con game is soon coming to an end. That is when you are going to see panic on Wall Street and around the world.”

If you have been following my website, you know that I have been pointing to 2015 for quite some time now.

For example, in my article entitled “The Seven Year Cycle Of Economic Crashes That Everyone Is Talking About“, I discussed the pattern of financial crashes that we have witnessed every seven years that goes all the way back to the Great Depression.  The last two major stock market crashes began in 2001 and 2008, and now here we are seven years later.

Will the same pattern hold up once again?

In addition, there are many other economic cycles that seem to indicate that we are due for a major economic downturn.  I discussed quite a few of these theories in my article entitled “If Economic Cycle Theorists Are Correct, 2015 To 2020 Will Be Pure Hell For The United States“.

But just like in 2000 and 2007, there are a whole host of doubters that are fully convinced that the party can continue indefinitely.  Even though our economic fundamentals continue to get worse, our debt levels continue to grow and every objective measurement shows that Wall Street is more reckless and more vulnerable to collapse than ever before, they mock the idea that a financial collapse is imminent.

So let’s see what happens in 2015.

I have a feeling that it is going to be an extremely “interesting” year.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-01-06/will-2015-be-year-economic-disaster-11-perspectives

Bild Warns German Govt Fears Greek Bank Runs, Financial System Collapse; Prepares For Grexit

It has been a busy few days for Germany. In the space of a week, they have warned Greece "there will be no blackmail," adding that a Greek exit from the euro was "manageable," only to hours later deny (clarify) these comments. This was then followed up with beggars-are-choosers Syriza demanding any ECB QE must buy Greek bonds (or else) - which Germany has flatly ruled out - only to see today that Syriza is practically guaranteed to win a "decisive victory" at the forthcoming snap election. So it with a wry smile that we note Bild reports tonight that the German government is preparing for a possible Greek exit, warning of financial system collapse, bank runs, and huge costs for the rest of the EU.

Germany has been flip-flopping (as Reuters notes)...

Der Spiegel magazine reported on Saturday that Berlin considers a Greek exit almost unavoidable if Syriza wins, but believes the euro zone would be able to cope.

Vice Chancellor Sigmar Gabriel said on Sunday that Germany wants Greece to stay and there are no contingency plans to the contrary, while noting the euro zone has become far more stable in recent years.

As the euro zone's paymaster, Germany is insisting that Greece stick to austerity and not backtrack on its bailout commitments, especially as it does not want to open the door for other struggling members to relax reform efforts.

But now the rhetoric is heating up...

Germany is making contingency plans for the possible departure of Greece from the euro zone, including the impact of any run on a bank, tabloid newspaper Bild reported, citing unnamed government sources.

The newspaper said the government was running scenarios for the Jan. 25 Greek election in case of a victory by the leftwing Syriza party, which wants to cancel austerity measures and a part of the Greek debt.

In a report in the Wednesday issue of the paper, Bild said government experts were concerned about a possible bank collapse if customers storm Greek institutions to secure euro deposits in the event that Greece leaves the zone.

The European Union banking union would then have to intervene with a bailout worth billions, the paper said.

*  *  *
Open Europe asks has the balance of power in a Grexit shifted?

We have always argued that a Grexit would be painful for both the Eurozone and Greece, but relatively more painful for the latter. As such, it has always seemed unlikely that Greece would unilaterally seek to exit the euro. This still seems to be the case, though there have been internal shifts. As we noted in Part 1, the economic and financial contagion from a Grexit could likely now be more easily contained. This allows the Eurozone to take a harder line with Greece, not least since giving into SYRIZA, will send the message to Podemos and others that fiscal discipline etc is fair game.

So the Eurozone may be less nervous about Grexit and feel it has more reason to stick to the rules as it has laid them out, which may harden its negotiating stance. Equally though, Greece may have more reason to think a Grexit could be economically manageable, which could encourage a SYRIZA-led government to stick to its guns more firmly. This to us suggests the clash could be bigger and the negotiations more difficult this time around. Ultimately, though – with hundreds of billions of euros and the political project of the euro at stake – it still seems likely someone will blink and a fudge will be on hand as is usually the way in Europe. Allowing Greece to remain inside the euro for now.

*  *  *
Greek stocks were closed on Tuesday (but ETFs in the US were notably lower) as Greek bond prices tumbled...

And if Germany is 'preparing' for Grexit, then maybe its 5Y Greek CDS they are buying?

As we concluded previously, the consensus can certainly forget the ECB announcing public QE at its next monetary policy meeting on January 22, which will be followed just 3 days later by the Greek national elections. In fact, things in the coming weeks and months may get very ugly, fast depending on how things in Greece play out.

So after 3 years of kicking the can and pretending it is fixed, suddenly everything that is broken in the Eurozone threatens to float right back to the surface, leading to another showdown when photos such as this one become a daily occurrence.

The only question is whether this time anyone will believe the rhetorical "whatever it takes" threats uttered by the one central bank which for the past 4 years has proven it is utterly incapable of acting, instead chosing to talk each and every day, a strategy that has worked brilliantly, until now.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-01-06/bild-warns-german-govt-fears-greek-bank-runs-financial-system-collapse-prepares-grex

Behold The "Cheap Gas" Spending Surge: $1 More Per Day

For all the endless media buzz pitching the bullish spin of plunging gas prices, namely that while crude capex spending and energy company earnings are both crashing, high-paying shale jobs are about to suffer pervasive layoffs and energy HY bonds are entering mass default territory leading to who knows what unexpected downstream effects, the average US consumer will spend substantially more to offset all the adverse side-effects of the plunging oil price. Or rather, was supposed to spend more. Because as Gallup finds, this did not happen.

Here is what did happen:

U.S. consumers' average daily spending in December was $98, matching the upper reaches on this measure since 2008. While strong relative to the recent recessionary period, it is similar to the $95 found in November, as well as the $96 in December 2013.

So crude tumbles in half, as does a gallon of gas, and US consumers spend a whopping $2 more in 2014 compared to a year ago, lifting their all in megaspend to an unprecedented $98?

Actually, make that precedented:

Because of holiday shopping, December spending has usually been the highest of any month in Gallup's seven-year history of asking this question. That was not the case in 2014, given that December's $98 average matched the $98 from May, and was barely higher than November's average.

Why?

The lack of a more significant November-to-December increase, common in prior years, could be a sign that the Christmas retail season was less than robust.

Uhm... Say what?

Maybe this only refers to those uber-wealthy Americans for whom spending on gas is such a small piece of the piece that a price reduction there doesn't have much of an impact?  Well, there's certainly that: as the following chart shows Americans making more than $90,000 a year picked up their spending to $177 daily in December, but well below the $189 and $190 over the summer, suggesting that as expected, gas prices have no impact on the spending patterns of the wealthy.

So what about the poorer part of US society, those making $90K or less: surely they spent like crazy in December rejoicing in the "tax cut" low gas prices afforded them? Well, no. Because as the next chart shows, the poorer US households spent $85 daily in December.

How does this compare to a year ago? $84. A whopping one dollar increase!

Gallup's take:

Upper-income Americans, those whose household incomes are $90,000 or more a year, had daily spending reports averaging $177 in December, among the highest for this group in 2014, and over the years since the recession. The December average is similar to last December's level. Upper-income spending has shown steady gains since September.

Spending among middle- and lower-income Americans, those whose annual household incomes are less than $90,000, was also higher than that found in most other monthly readings Gallup has conducted in the past several years. However, their spending levels in December 2014 roughly matched those in December 2013. Although spending among upper-income Americans often drives the changes in Gallup's monthly estimate, middle- and lower-income Americans make up the bulk of U.S. consumers.

And it is also the middle- and lower-income Americans that benefited the most from lower gas prices. In other words, the direct impact from the plunging oil price: an unprecedented increase from $84 to $85 between December 2013 and December 2014.

This will boost US GDP by how much again?

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-01-05/what-cheap-gas-spending-boost-gallup-finds-virtually-no-holiday-spending-increase-ye

Is Citi The Next AIG?

Earlier today, when we were conducting a routine check with the Office of the Currency Comptroller's on the total notional amount of derivatives held at the Big 4 banks in the context of the "JPMorgan break up" story, we found something stunning: using the latest, just released Q3 OCC data, JPMorgan is no longer America's undisputed derivatives king. Well, it still is at the HoldCo level, where it is number one in terms of notional derivatives with $65.5 trillion, but when one steps a level lower, namely the FDIC-insured commercial bank (the National Association or N.A.) level, something quite disturbing emerges. This:

As the chart above, which references Table 1 in the Q3 OCC report, shows Citigroup, or rather its FDIC-insured Citibank National Association entity, just surpassed JPM and is now the biggest single holder of total derivatives in the US. Furthermore, as the charts below show, while every other bank was derisking its balance sheet, Citi not only increased its total derivative holdings by $1 trillion in Q2, but by a whopping, and perhaps even record, $9 trillion in the just concluded third quarter to $70.2 trillion!

Here is Citi in context:

What is the reason for the surge in total derivative exposure? was it futures, options, forward or CDS? Neither. The answer: OTC traded swaps...

... which soared by $5 trillion in Q2 and over $8 trillion - or a massive 20% in just one quarter - in Q3 to a whopping $49 trillion, $16 trillion more than the OTC swaps held by JPMorgan or Goldman Sachs, and more than double the swaps held by Bank of America!

And that's not all: perhaps what is most bizarre is that Citigroup is the one bank whose HoldCo holds less derivatives, or $64.8 trillion, than its FDIC-insured N.A. OpCo which has $70.3 trillion in derivative notional exposure. For those wondering: this was not the case in the second quarter when the HoldCo ($61.8 trillion) held more derivatives than Citi's FDIC-insured bank ($61.1 trillion).

Then we started thinking:

Citigroup... swaps... Citigroup... swaps...

and a lightbulb click, because we remembered that it was none other than Citigroup that crafted the legislation on the swaps push-out provision which passed Congress without nary a peep from either side of the aisle, and which put taxpayers on the hook for FDIC-insured derivative exposure- and in Citi's own case a soaring $70 trillion as of September 30, 2014:

We also revealed that, not surprisingly, the main backer of the bill is notorious Wall Street puppet Jim Himes (D-Conn.) the man BusinessWeek branded "Wall Street's Favorite Democrat" who also happens to be a former Goldman Sachs employee.

And yet, despite all these critical recollections, many questions remains, such as:

• Why does Citi's FDIC-insured bank suddenly have more derivative notional exposure than its HoldCo: something which is generally without precedent?
• Why, when every other Big 4 bank is derisking its balance sheet and reducing its derivative exposure in light of far more stringent capital requirements, is Citigroup adding to its derivative notional and swap exposure at an unprecedented, feverish pace, which saw the bank boost its OTC Swaps holdings by 20% in just one quarter?
• When Congress was voting for the swaps push-out legislation, the Q3 OCC data was not yet publicly available. Was anyone in Congress aware that some $9 trillion had been added to the tally of taxpayer insured derivatives held at Citibank NA as of September 30.
• What is Citigroups and Citibank's total derivative and total swap exposure as of December 31, and has it continue to soar at a rate of roughly $10 trillion per quarter?

And perhaps most impotantly: what is the underlying trade that requires Citigroup to keep adding to its swap exposure at a time when increasing volatility is forcing all other banks to unwind swaps in order to minimize VaR and be in compliance with Fed capitalization requirements?

And then another lightbulb went over our heads: the last entity to do this was, drumroll, JPMorgan, in early 2013, just before its London whale trade imploded and when the bank's attempt to corner the IG9 market failed miserably but not before JPM's CIO trading desk doubled down, then doubled down again and doubled down some more taking their total derivative exposure to several hundred billion... before it all came crashing down.

Now, we are not saying Citigroup is in the same boat as JPM's infamous CIO which led to congressional hearings and what not - especially since $250 billion was manageable; $50 trillion will not be - but we do wonder: just what is going on behind the massivaly margined scenes if Citi is following every page in the London Whale book and on top of everything it also had to lobby and petition Congress to change the law just so whatever it is that Citigroup is doing, it could continue to do, and what's more: with explicit taxpayer-funded backing.

Which leads us to the final question:

• Is Citigroup about to become the "New Normal" AIG?

Source: OCC

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-01-05/citi-next-aig-70-trillion-reasons-why-citigroup-and-congress-scrambled-pass-swaps-pu

Bidless Euro Crashes To Level Not Seen Since March 2006

Having closed the Friday session less than 1 pip above the hugely important 1.2000 level below which there lay many stops, following this weekend's news onslaught which seemed like a deja vu of the newsflow from the fall of 2011, where the main catalyst was the Reuters report that Germany is preparing to let Greece go once and for all (with the subsequent attempts at retraction barely noticed), or maybe just because someone wanted to price in a little more of the more than fully priced in by now ECB QE - which very well may not happen - the moment the EURUSD opened for trading it took out not only the critical 1.2000 stops, but within milliseconds the Euro found itself bidless and crashed to a low of 1.1864, promptly taking out the lows set in May 2010 when the first Greek bailout took place, and tumbled to a level not seen since March of 2006!

Following the initial collapse the Euro did stage a modest comeback, but even the dead cat bounce appears to be fading and at this rate Mario Draghi will have no choice but to reprise his July 2012 "whatever it takes" melodrama or else any bank, pension fund or institution that is still long the EUR may not make it past tomorrow's margin calls.

Paradoxically, in the newer-normal, EUR weakness which implicitly means USD strenght, the plunge in the Euro means another spike in the USDJPY to which all the E-mini algos are correlating, so in the off chance that the EUR collapses to parity, sending the Yen crashing to Albert Edwards' 135 level, may be just what the market needed to finally hit Goldman's 2015 year end target of 2200 a year or so early.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-01-04/bidless-euro-crashes-level-not-seen-march-2006

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Russia's "Startling" Proposal To Europe: Dump The US, Join The Eurasian Economic Union

Slowly but surely Europe is figuring out that as a result of the western economic and financial blockade of Russian, it is Europe itself that is suffering the most. And while Germany was first to acknowledge this late in 2014 when its economy swooned and is now on the verge of a recession, now others are catching on. Case in point: the former head of the European Commission, and Italy’s former Prime Minister, Romano Prodi who told Messaggero newspaper that the "weaker Russian economy is extremely unprofitable for Italy."

The other details from Prodi's statement:

Lowered prices in the international energy markets have positive aspects for the Italian consumers, who pay less for the fuel, but the effect will be only short-term. In the long-term however the weaker economic situation in countries producing energy resources, caused by lower oil and gas prices, mostly in Russia, is extremely unprofitable for Italy, he said.

“The lowering of the oil and gas prices in combination with the sanctions, pushed by the Ukrainian crisis, will drop the Russian GPD by five percent per annum, and thus it will cause cutting of the Italian export by about 50%,” Prodi said.

“Setting aside the uselessness or imminence of the sanctions, one should highlight a clear skew: regardless of the rouble rate against dollar, which is lower by almost a half, the American export to Russia is growing, while the export from Europe is shrinking.”

In other words, just as slowly, the world is starting to grasp the bottom line: it is not the financial exposure to Russia, or the threat of financial contagion should Russia suffer a major recession or worse: it is something far simpler that will lead to the biggest harm for Europe's countries. The lack of trade. Because while central banks can monetize everything, leading to an unprecedented asset bubble which if only for the time being boosts investor and consumer confidence, they can't print trade - that all important driver of growth in a globalized world long before central banks were set to monetize over $1 trillion in bonds each and every year to mask the fact that the world is deep in a global depression.

Which is why we read the following report written in yesterday's Deutsche Wirtschafts Nachrichten with great interest because it goes right to the bottom line. In it Russia has a not so modest proposal to Europe: dump trade with the US, whose call for Russian "costs" has cost you another year of declining economic growth, and instead join the Eurasian Economic Union! From the source:

Russia has presented a startling proposal to overcome the tensions with the EU: The EU should renounce the free trade agreement with the United States TTIP and enter into a partnership with the newly established Eurasian Economic Union instead. A free trade zone with the neighbors would make more sense than a deal with the US.

It surely would, but then how will Europe feign outrage when the NSA is found to have spied yet again on its "closest trading partners?" Some more on Russia's proposal from EUobserver:

Vladimir Chizhov told EUobserver: “Our idea is to start official contacts between the EU and the EAEU as soon as possible. [German] chancellor Angela Merkel talked about this not long ago. The EU sanctions [on Russia] are not a hindrance”.

“I think that common sense advises us to explore the possibility of establishing a common economic space in the Eurasian region, including the focus countries of the Eastern Partnership [an EU policy on closer ties with Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine]".

"We might think of a free trade zone encompassing all of the interested parties in Eurasia”.

He described the new Russia-led bloc as a better partner for the EU than the US, with a dig at health standards in the US food industry.

“Do you believe it is wise to spend so much political energy on a free trade zone with the USA while you have more natural partners at your side, closer to home? We don’t even chlorinate our chickens”, the ambassador said.

The treaty establishing the Eurasian Union entered into life on Thursday (1 January).

It includes Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Russia, with Kyrgyzstan to join in May.

Modelled on the EU, it has a Moscow-based executive body, the Eurasian Economic Commission, and a political body, the Supreme Eurasian Economic Council, where member states’ leaders take decisions by unanimity.

It has free movement of workers and a single market for construction, retail, and tourism. Over the next 10 years, it aims to create a court in Minsk, a financial regulator in Astana and, possibly, to open Eurasian Economic Commission offices in Astana, Bishkek, Minsk, and Yerevan.

It also aims to launch free movement of capital, goods, and services, and to extend its single market to 40 other sectors, with pharmaceuticals next in line in 2016.

And as a reminder: The Eurasian Economic Union, a trade bloc of former Soviet states, expanded to four nations Friday when Armenia formally joined, a day after the union between Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan began.

So the ball is in your court, Europe: will it be a triple-dip (and soon thereafter quadruple: see Japan) recession as your Goldman-controlled central bank plunders ever more of what little is left of middle-class wealth with promises that this year - for real - is when it all turns around, or will Europe acknowledge it has had enough and shifts its strategic, and trade, focus from west (speaking of the TTIP, Germany's agriculture minister just said "We can't protect every sausage" referring to the TTIP) to east?

Considering just whose interests are represented by the unelected bureaucrats in Brussels, we won't be holding our breath.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-01-04/russias-startling-proposal-europe-dump-us-join-eurasian-economic-union

The Fed and Interest Rates Are Just Political Theater

Last week was a wash.

It was, after all, a holiday week. Most traders on Wall Street had left their trading desks well before Wednesday. Volume was light allowing those traders who were still manning the helm will have a free-for-all pushing the market this way and that.

So trying to make sense of this week is a pointless exercise. We are much better off concerning ourselves with the big picture.

The Big Picture is that the Fed has stopped its QE programs. As a result, investor attention has shifted to when the Fed will begin raising interest rates. Will the first rate hike come in mid-2015? Earlier? Later?

In reality, most of this is political theater. We have not had a Hawkish Fed in well over 20 years (possibly 30). As far as Greenspan, Bernanke, and Yellen have been concerned, the answer to any and all problems in the financial system has been to keep interest rates too low, print money, and buy assets from Wall Street (a kind of “cash for securities trash”)

Why does this matter? Because the last 20 years has shown us that the Fed immediately cuts rates and turns on the printing press at the first sign of trouble. Given the fragile state of the global economy and financial markets, the likelihood of the Fed raising rates in a significant or unexpected way is next to none.

Indeed, Ben Bernanke told a group of hedge fund insiders that rates will likely not be normalized in his lifetime (he’s currently 61, so he’s talking 20-30 years).

Again, all of this is political theater. The big story for the markets is not interest rates. It is the US Dollar. For over 40 years, the world has been borrowing US Dollars to finance real estate development, infrastructure projects,  mergers and acquisitions, Research and Development projects, and the more. Today, globally, corporates and investors have borrowed over $9 TRILLION in US Dollars to finance other investments.

To put this number into perspective, it is equal to the economies of Japan and Germany combined (they are the third and fourth largest economies in the world by the way).

Why does this matter?

Because when you borrow in US Dollars to invest elsewhere, you are effectively shorting the US Dollar. If the US Dollar begins to rally (strengthen) you can blow up very VERY quickly.

Take a look at this chart.

This is the single largest chart pattern in financial history. It is a gigantic falling wedge pattern spanning over 40 years. When it breaks out to the upside, we’re potentially facing a 5+ years US Dollar bull market that will see the US Dollar rising to 120 if not 130.

And we just began to break it this year.

The world is awash in debt, most of it borrowed in US Dollars. When the Great Deleveraging truly begins, the US Dollar will rise rapidly as investors are forced to either pay their debts back (shrinking the amount of Dollars in the financial system) or default (ditto).

This would fuel a massive collapse in inflated asset prices around the globe. Anything and everything that was financed by cheap Dollars would collapse. Entire companies would go bust… as would multiple sovereign nations.

And this process has just begun. This is why emerging market currencies are collapsing. Brazil’s Real has lost over 20% of its value against the US Dollar in the last six months. The Australian Dollar has lost 16%. And on and on.

The real story for the world is not interest rates… it is that the era of cheap US Dollar financing everything on the planet has ended. What’s coming will not be pretty for anyone or anything that relies on cheap Dollars (this includes stocks, bonds, and the like).

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-12-26/fed-and-interest-rates-are-just-political-theater

Putin: It Is Time to Play Your Ace in the Hole

The entire world is watching Putin play poker with the Western politicians lead by Obama and followed by Washington quislings in London, Brussels and Berlin. America's goal since the end of the Cold War has been to weaken by financial, economic and, if necessary, military means any real competition to its global financial and resource domination through the petrodollar and dollar world reserve currency status.

The current trade and economic sanctions against Russia and Iran follow this time-tested action that is never successful on its own, as we know from the 50-plus-year blockade of Cuba. But this strategy can lead to opposition nations retaliating by military means, often their only alternative to end blockades etc., which are an act of war and allow the US and other democracies to bring their ultimate superior military power to bare against the offending sovereign state. This worked for Lincoln against the Confederate States of America, by Woodrow Wilson against the Central Powers before World War One, against the Japanese Empire before World War Two, Iraq, Libya – the list is endless.

Recently the US has created the oil price collapse, working closely with its client state Saudi Arabia, in order to weaken the economic power of both Iran and Russia, the two main nations opposing US hegemony, foreign policy and petrodollar policy. Yes, this will play havoc with the US shale oil industry as well as London's North Sea oil industry but oil profits pale in comparison to the importance of maintaining Western power over Russia and China.

I hope Putin realizes the US is not playing games here, as this is a financial and strategic game to the death for Washington and it's Western allies that have foolishly followed the Goldman Sachs/central banking cartel's deadly sovereign debt recipe and for growth and prosperity. The time is up; the debts can never be repaid and sooner or later must be repudiated one way or the other.

China is waiting in the wings as the new world economic power and while it is too big to challenge, US strategy is to take out its top two allies, Iran and Russia, to buy time for Wall Street and Washington. The strategy might be a competitive economic course of action but the risk of military consequences and even a third world war loom on the horizon and no country has ever defeated Russia in a land attack. This is risky brinkmanship just to protect our banking and Wall Street elites and their profits at the expense of the American people, I might add, but the US has done this before.

Is This Just a Repeat of the Versailles Treaty, Russian-style?

This has all happened before. It's the same old game with different players. I fear we are watching a repeat of the Versailles Treaty, Russian-style. If you look closely at real history rather than the establishment-directed propaganda dished out to the public, you'll realize that the Western financial elites and central banking cartel seldom change tactics. Why should they? Their financial empires continue to grow during all major wars and financial crises and if they should guess wrong, then they get taxpayers to bail them out.

The Goldman Sachs, Rothschild and Soros types control the Western democracies as well as the financial markets and use paid or blackmailed cheerleaders and front men to advance their best interests to the populace as acceptable economic or political policies.

For example, Woodrow Wilson's Fourteen Points statement given on January 8, 1918, claiming the war and US intervention was a moral cause to advance peace in Europe after World War One, was one of the leading reasons the Germans sued for peace. In hindsight, we know that American intervention was really instituted to prevent an Allied loss or negotiated settlement that could make it impossible for French and British banks to pay back their massive loans to the US banking establishment and thereby bankrupting our leading banks of the day.

Once the war was over the platitudes about freedom, self-determination and making the world safe for democracy dissolved into the Treaty of Versailles, probably one of the most vengeful and unfair peace treaties ever forced on a defeated foe. The entire Austrian-Hungarian empire was totally destroyed except for the small area of present Austria and Germany, which was stripped of much of its territory and subjected to a vengeful, unpayable war debt comparable to America's current national debt today. Sadly, the treaty created the public anger and economic chaos that eventually brought Hitler to power and set the stage for the Second World War.

So Where Does Russia Go from Here?

First, the US cable pundits are suggesting that Putin might retaliate by invading Ukraine. Why would Russia want Ukraine? Except for substantial agricultural resources that can be purchased on the open market, this is a bankrupt country with a long list of failed governments. The country has become a pawn in the battle between East and West, and its people have already suffered so much. Now Russia might move in the East to protect Russian-speaking areas and could be willing to suffer the additional economic consequences of creating a land bridge to Crimea but the military option appears quite limited and counter-productive at best.

No nation will win a shooting war between the US, UK and EU versus Russia and China. The consequences are too horrible to be contemplated but Russia has an ace in the hole that can win the financial and economic battle going on today.

First, Russia should join with China in a new gold, oil and natural resource backed monetary union as an alternative to the failed debt democracy model pushed by Wall Street, the central bank cartel and self-serving politicians in the West. It simply does not work in the long term to finance prosperity and improved standards of living through mountains of debt placed on future generations.

Washington has destroyed every tax haven and bit of personal and financial privacy in the world because of its desperate need for revenue. Every financial haven has caved, including Switzerland, because they cannot hope to prevail against the US, UK and EU. The US intends to make Russia a pariah state and cut it off from trade, funds transfer, banking and Western credit markets. It will not relent until Putin is overthrown and Russia is compliant with and a supporter of the New World Order. Next in line following Russia will be China. Thus, a monetary union could provide the needed support for Russia necessary to guarantee the independence and self-determination of China.

Second, Russia should act offensively rather than defensively on the financial front by creating corporate tax-free/low income tax zones and welcoming corporations, successful individuals and entrepreneurs to take up residence and create jobs and prosperity. The Hong Kong model does work to create industry, service industry and free-market prosperity and to win, Russia needs far more than a resource-based economy.

Russia needs more population and a larger middle class and should offer residency and citizenship opportunities to productive and successful workers, entrepreneurial businesses and corporations etc. with the right of reasonable financial and corporate privacy along with the low tax benefits.

Canada, the wonderful country I live and work in today, offers permanent residency benefits and citizenship to hundreds of thousands of foreigners wanting to work and immigrate to Canada together with low corporate tax benefits.

Russia can and should do the same, although the market will require bargain prices as Russia does not have the long history of rule of law, security and peace like Canada does. Russia should look at good climate areas like Crimea and other areas around the Black Sea and maybe Kaliningrad in the north directly in the middle of the EU.

Competititon, free markets, minimal regulation and low taxes are the 21st century solution to military aggression, over-indebted and resource-hungry empires. Putin said it best in his news conference last week.

"They won't leave [the bear] alone. They will always seek to chain it. And once it's chained, they'll rip out its teeth and claws. The nuclear deterrence, speaking in present-day terms. As soon as this happens, nobody will need [the bear] anymore. They'll stuff it. And start to put their hands on its Taiga [Siberian forest belt] after it. We've heard statements from Western officials that Russia's owning Siberia was not fair." – Vladimir Putin

Vladimir Putin, now is the time to play your ace in the hole. Russia can win the financial and economic war being waged against it but not by playing the same old game of poker where cheating prevails. Show the world that Russia is worthy of 21st century leadership in a peaceful and competitive manner by using the debt, currency and banking weaknesses of the West to defeat an opponent out to chain Russia as it has the rest of the world into surrender and serfdom.

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