Monday, July 2, 2018

Trump the worlds worst FX trader

As we have explained in Splitting Pennies - the global markets are not as they seem.  As we are now all aware, Trump started a trade war which really is the equivalent of a pissing contest (as it mostly is just talk), however it seems as though Trump's heart is in the right place putting America first but he needs to hire better financial advisers as the Chinese are winning this round of the game.  The chart to follow is this, as reported first on Zero Hedge (it seems the mainstream financial media is skipping over this huge glaring super important fact):

What the PBOC (The Chinese Central Bank) has been doing is artificially debasing their currency, thus offsetting any potential tariffs.  Currency Wars are nothing new and they didn't invent anything with this move.  It's simple really, the Yuan is a controlled currency (unlike others that freely float against other currencies) that means the PBOC can basically decide what it wants the rate to be, USDCNH.  So for example if Trump enacts a 20% hike on Chinese imports via tariff or taxes, and the Yuan sinks 20% - for the buyer the product is the same and likely nothing would change.  These buyers, like Home Depot for example, Wal Mart, and others - they are very sensitive about small thin margins.  An extra 1% would cause them to shop the deal.  Practically, there are hundreds of alternatives, but China has built their economy as a wholesale dumping ground where there are absolutely no labor laws, environmental controls, or other standards how their products are made, so that it really is cheap crap.  
I'd like to use an example from the real world not connected to this China problem.  Recently I visited a Gold Mine which is a tourist attraction in Georgia.  They explained there is plenty of gold there - but due to environmental regulations it would cost much more (twice or more) the current Gold price to extract it, whatever the number doesn't matter but let's say it's 5,000 Oz from this mine, if we follow all the rules and regulations.  In South Africa, in Russia, and many other places - they have no such rules.  So they are poisoning the environment!! Those jerks.. but who can stop them?  You don't see environmental protests in Red Square, liberals throwing red meat on Oligarchs as they leave posh hotels.  
The point is - considering all these costs - what is the REAL Price of the iPhone?  5,000 ? If made in USA.  Here's the problem with Trump's strategy.  And this statement is not a solution it is merely intended to elaborate on how complex this issue really is.
The FANGs have built an entire business out of being able to build cheaply without rules.  If we stripped away all that advantage, their stocks would look more like utilities.  Perhaps that is as it should be.  When investors buy Apple (AAPL) they think of technology, they think of innovation - they don't think of exploitation of child labor, forced slave labor, workers who commit suicide the conditions are so bad.  They don't consider the environmental cost (which is also ironic considering their liberal leftist base).
In Trump's trade war, we are talking about leveling the playing field.  We want to bring those jobs back home - back to Main St. 
"Make it on Wall St. - Spend it on Main St." used to be the saying.  But now it's more like "Make it on Wall St., spend it in China, Bermuda, anywhere but USA - just get the money out!"
Tax havens, cheap manufacturing bases, and other excuses have bled America dry of capital.  QE and the policies of the Fed have made the 1% even more rich - but have done nothing positive, in fact have acted more like a leech - to the real economy.  The banks didn't lend post crisis.  The rich didn't spend (at least as to help the real economy) and were so greedy that with a few token exceptions they likely made the problems worse.  This led to skyrocketing unemployment (now they are calling it 'underemployment'), opioid epidemics, explosion in crime, violence, roads and bridges in major need of repair, deterioration of schools and finally the creation of the mutant fakebook generation that has no skill other than posting to their wall.  Yes, all the problems, the bankrupt cities, deterioration of institutions, civic society - can all be laid to blame on decades of economic policies that have made USA rotten from the inside out.  Globalists have bought and sold all elements of American life and Trump is trying to reverse that.  If successful, which in the best case can take many years, we can hope for the 50s and 60s but with the benefits of technology.  Those who either are the 1% AND those who are too stupid to understand this economic analysis which you really don't need a high IQ or an economics degree to understand, represent the anti-Trump movement, and they will do anything to maintain their status quo.  
The Elite have led a bad example, not to single anyone out but here's one Mayor that really shouldn't act like this: Bloomberg.  Here's a guy who spends his free time in another country golfing and eating steaks.  While the news agency that carries his name slowly deteriorates into a liberal political tool (from what was once the only unbiased business and finance media in the world) promoting the agenda of whoever pays the most, Bloomberg is the mayor of New York but spends his spare time in Bermuda.  He's a public figure but the point is that most of the Elite are like this.  They look at America as a cash cow, certainly it's not a place you want to spend your weekends.  Why would you?  Been to the Bronx in the summer lately?  It's a heat island.
This is non-political economic analysis - the elaboration here is to demonstrate the forces at work here.  Trump is trying to take back this unfair advantage which is being exploited by: Foreign Countries, US Corporates (some, not all), the Elite, Banks, et. al.  But just like a gambler who has a winning ticket every day at the casino - if you one day tell him that his ticket is no longer a winner - of course he will react negatively, he'll sue your casino he'll do anything in his power to get back his winning ticket!  So we can expect a real push back on such policies, the most logical and rational is the Currency devaluation promulgated by the PBOC.
We can't stop environmentally devastating Gold mining in Russia - but we can set economic examples for fair business that's pro-USA.  In fact this laptop I'm writing on is made in Delaware (Eluktronics).  The BMW you drive may have been made in Spartanburg, South Carolina.  This move isn't about China vs. USA or "US vs. THEM" it's about restoring free trade to normalcy.  USA is currently giving the rest of the world a free ride (or a considerably cheaper one).  
The problem however is in the delivery.
Trump needs stronger economic advisors.  Larry Kudlow is well represented in a Clownocracy which Trump has created in his reality show, but has little understanding of macro economics and is in deep need in lessons in Mathematics.  They all have USA's interest #1 they aren't enemies they are just misinformed.  Trump may be a master negotiator and a top actor in a TV show which makes him a perfect candidate to be President but he is not a Quant nor a Gekko.  Where is Paul Volker?  Why aren't interest rates above 10%?  If Trump wants to SMASH China where it hurts all that needs to be done is raise rates.
As it stands, all of this commotion in Washington is being muted by PBOC manipulation of the USD/Yuan rate.  In order to stop this, there is one simple order: Raise rates 5%.  There are 2 sides to every coin.  As a Global Reserve Currency it's not possible to play in Yen and deflate / debase your way into exporter heaven.  For a strong country that wants USA first, aggressive rate hikes are the only way to stay ahead.  That's not likely to happen.  Of course there is an alternative route - lowering rates to ZIRP again allowing more cheap money to flow into the system (but it hasn't worked in the past and will not likely achieve anything).
This article is not meant to suggest economic policy, simply to elaborate that the Chinese are winning this round by simply devaluing their currency and they can continue to do so the higher the tariffs are raised.  So if Trump enacts a 50% tax on Asian imports it will be irrelevant if the Yuan is devalued by another 50%.  Capiche?  

Friday, June 29, 2018

Crypto Market showing signs of cracking - too many Shitcoin

The Crypto Market isn't all it's cracked up to be.  Last year we wrote a book on this topic, Splitting Bits (you can get it here).  But the book was written in October, before the huge rise in price in November and December.   Just like with traditional markets - investors only seem interested in the winners.  When we said that 90% of ICOs are frauds - did anyone really hear that?  Or were they just 'listening' ?
As the digital money frenzy of the past few years cools, the crypto coin graveyard is filling up. Dead Coins lists around 800 tokens that are bereft of life, while Coinopsy estimates that more than 1,000 have bought the farm.
The carnage is mostly the consequence of failed projects from the thousands of startups that used initial coin offerings to raise billions in funding, and a global regulatory crackdown on questionable practices and scams. Names like CryptoMeth, Droplex and Roulettecoin may have been a clue to the coins’ dim prospects.
“There has obviously been a lot of fraud and hype in the ICO market,” Aaron Brown, a business author and investor who writes for Bloomberg Prophets, said in an email. “I accept figures I have seen that 80 percent of ICOs were frauds, and 10 percent lacked substance and failed shortly after raising money. Most of the remaining 10 percent will probably fail as well.”
While everyone is watching Bitcoin, many forget about the thousands of failed projects, frauds, and other failed ICOs that didn't meet the mark.


While this may seem like an obvious statement, with all the hype - some need a reminder of this.  As they say in Israel, most projects are 'shitcoin.'  Oh you think this is another joke, do you?  No no no... no no no .. it's not.
This is a great example of what comprises the majority of the Crypto Market.  Now of course, not all coins are shit coins - in fact many show signs of promise.  And also, not all ICOs are crap, there are those that actually have an underlying technology which look very promising, such as Sky Desks, Cornucopia, and others.  Some from the 'real world' are finding no trouble raising money, that is - coins that actually have viable business models - such as Box Bit.  Consulting companies are popping up everywhere.

But going back to SHIT, it really is wide spread.  So few ICOs are regulated, in fact there is only one 'official' regulated ICO and it's not an ICO it's an STO (Securities Token Offering) tZERO.
It seems that there is only one coin, that everyone agrees (at least the market) is good - and that's Bitcoin.  But yet, we don't know who created Bitcoin, even though the NSA said they can't say if they created it as this is classified (classic!).
Millions of people around the world are trying to start their own coins.  Platforms like Waves allow you to do this in a few minutes after paying the ETH fee.  But what value does a coin have which can be created in the equivalent of Microsoft Money?  
You know that many of us were not born yesterday, so we're not falling for the banana in the tailpipe.

It can be you!  Just liquidate your 401k and invest in the next 'Bitcoin' - which you probably have a friend who told you what it's going to be.  WARNING - THIS IS SARCASTIC HUMOR.  CRYPTO INVESTING IS RISKY AND YOU SHOULD ONLY INVEST FUNDS IN WHICH YOU PLAN ON LOSING IN ORDER TO OFFSET YOUR MASSIVE TAX BILL ON YOUR BITCOIN GAINS YOU HAVE CARRIED FORWARD SINCE 2017.

Tuesday, June 26, 2018

Deutsche Bank fined $205m for foreign exchange rigging

The New York Department of Financial Services (DFS) has fined the bank for unlawful, unsafe and unsound behaviour in its foreign exchange trading business
Deutsche Bank agreed to pay the fines for violations of New York banking law that included, among other things, skewing prices and misleading customers.
The violations were discovered during a DFS investigation, which found that the bank had acted improperly between 2007 and 2013, during which time it was the largest foreign exchange dealer in the world.
The behaviour by traders included use of multi-party chat rooms to coordinate activity and share confidential information, misleading customers on benefits of the bank, and manipulating foreign exchange currency prices and benchmark rates.
“Due to Deutsche Bank’s lax oversight in its foreign exchange business, including in some instances, supervisors engaging in improper activity, certain traders and salespeople repeatedly abused the trust of their customers and violated New York State law over the course of many years,” said DFS superintendent Maria Vullo.
She added that inadequate supervision could pose risks to the “soundness of an institution” and that compliance failures can lead to procedures harmful to customers and markets.
Vullo added that she appreciated the bank’s full cooperation and its internal investigation.
The bank will now provide plans on enhanced internal controls, an internal audit and a compliance risk management program in regards to its foreign exchange trading business.
In April, Mark Johnson, former head of HSBC Bank foreign exchange cash trading in the US became the first person to be imprisoned as part of a global crackdown on currency rigging.
 Deutsche Bank has been contacted for comment.

Tuesday, June 19, 2018

tZERO Sale Closing News Announcements And Clients Signing On Will Drive Overstock And tZERO Token Higher

Summary

The world forgot about the tZERO ICO.
tZERO recently announced a partnership with BOX Digital Markets.
They raised $250M, reaching their goal (according to sources).
There is nothing stopping tZERO and OSTK from a 10x or 20x return.
The crypto market has cooled down, with some sites indicating that the market is down to $268 billion market cap (total, including all coins). There is no debate that Bitcoin has failed to meet the hopes of many (that it would go to $100,000 or higher) - it has failed. The hopers and the HOLDers are still hoping and HOLDing, while major enterprise grade projects are taking shape in the crypto community, the most prominent and significant being the tZERO token trading platform, and we will explain why here.
First let's understand why this recent news is significant:

READ THE FULL ARTICLE HERE ON SEEKING ALPHA

OPEN A FOREX ACCOUNT


Monday, June 18, 2018

Taming the market with robots

We've been closely watching the Crypto Currency Market if you can call it that, with all the fake data, fraud, and related problems.  One thing stands out - it's not so different than FX, commodities, futures, or stocks.  Market dynamics are market dynamics.  And as most readers of this fine site will already know - the majority of traders lose.  There's been analysis done on this, we all know how this ends.  A few early investors make a bundle and thousands or millions even are left holding the bag.  From one perspective, a bubble is much like a ponzi scheme.  In MLM, there are a few who get rich - the founders.  
Unless you are the founder - how do you know which Crypto is going to be the next Bitcoin?  You really don't.  You have no clue.  You can go to Korea and do all the due diligence you want, the fact remains that no one can see the future and even a top analyst can be wrong at times.  
Quant traders have a similar doctrine they all share - they are smart enough to know how stupid they are.  They know their own flaws and they submit to a higher power- that is Artificial Intelligence.
Computing power is now so massive that it is possible that anyone can from their own home office create an intelligent trading system that does well.  Of course, as with the laws of market dynamics, it's also possible to create a robot which is worth exactly zero - a big pile of crap.  When a quant makes an algorithm it's either priceless or worthless.  If it works, he has effectively created a money making machine.  If it doesn't work, there isn't any value to anyone not even academics.
So how do you know what method works, how to build a working bot or buy one?  There are obvious conflicts of interest in those who sell bots.  The internet has been dominated by good marketeers, while profitable quants mostly keep their strategies to themselves.  Selling a product, and trading a robot, are really 2 different skills.
Crypto so far has proven the same as most markets: impossible to trade.  Just look at this chart and tell me where you would have entered and exited without the foreknowledge of what is actually going to happen:

While many are kicking themselves for not buying and holding, I can tell you as a trader and I speak for many in the room that there is no way I would have had the patience to sit on a hugely profitable position for 3 years while the price goes parabolic.  
That's why quants develop and trade algorithms - picking entries and exits can prove to be brain-destroying.  There are dangers and risks with robots too of course, but they are of a different nature.
Choose your bot @ www.fxbot.market   ANNOUNCEMENT:  ROBOTS WANTED!  List your robot for free - connect to Handy the trade copy bot and let fxbot.market do all the work for you.

Sunday, June 10, 2018

Bitcoin Tumbles After Major Crypto Exchanges Subpoenaed For Manipulation, Coinrail Hacked

Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies flash-crashed Saturday night, one day after the US Commodity Future Trading Commission (CFTC) sent subpoenas four cryptocurrency exchanges in an ongoing probe into bitcoin manipulation that began in late July - following the launch of bitcoin futures on the CME, according to the Wall Street Journal
CME’s bitcoin futures derive their final value from prices at four bitcoin exchangesBitstamp, Coinbase, itBit and KrakenManipulative trading in those markets could skew the price of bitcoin futures that the government directly regulates.
In delay reaction, Bitcoin fell as much as $433 or 5.6% in Saturday night trading, with some noting that the flash crash happened shortly after a 90th ranked crypto exchange, Coinrail, had suffered a "cyber intrusion", and was likely the more relevant catalyst for the crypto price drop.
While major Cryptocurrencies were down from 4.5 - 5.5%, Bitcoin Cash dropped over 8.4%. 
The CTFC subpoenas were issued after several of the exchanges refused to voluntarily share trading data with the CME after being asked last December. Of note, the CFTC regulates the CTC. 
According to the WSJ, the CME, which launched bitcoin futures in December, asked the four exchanges to share reams of trading data after its first contract settled in January, people familiar with the matter said. But several of the exchanges declined to comply, arguing the request was intrusive. The exchanges ultimately provided some data, but only after CME limited its request to a few hours of activity, instead of a full day, and restricted to a few market participants, the people added.
What is curious, is that if there was indeed manipulation since the launch of bitcoin futures, it was to the downside, as the price of cryptos peaked around the time the crypto futures were launched, and are down well over 50% in the 6 months since.
Coinbase in particular has been under the watch government regulators. On February 23, Coinbase sent an official notice to around 13,000 customers to notify them they were legally required to turn over their information to the IRS
The IRS had initially asked Coinbase in July 2017 to hand over even more detailed information on every one of its then over 500,000 users in an attempt catch those cheating on their taxes. However, another court order in Nov. 2017 reduced this number to around 14,000 “high-transacting” users, which the platform now reports as 13,000, in what Coinbase calls a “partial, but still significant, victory for Coinbase and its customers.”
Coinbase told the around 13,000 affected customers that the company would be providing their taxpayer ID, name, birth date, address, and historical transaction records from 2013-2015 to the IRS within 21 days. Coinbase’s letter to these customers encourages them “to seek legal advice from an attorney promptly” if they have any questions. Their website also states that concerns may also be addressed on Coinbase’s Taxes FAQ. The ongoing legal battle between Coinbase and the US government dates back to November, 2016, when the IRS filed a “John Doe summons” in the United States District Court for the Northern District of California.
On Feb. 13, personal finance service Credit Karma released data showing that only 0.04 percent of their customers had reported cryptocurrencies on their federal tax returns. 
And in April, former New York Attorney General, Eric "we could rarely have sex without him beating me" Schneiderman, launched a probe of 13 major cryptocurrency exchanges according to the Wall Street Journal - claiming that investors dealing in the fast-growing markets often don’t have the basic facts needed to protect themselves.
Former AG Schneiderman’s office said the program, called Virtual Markets Integrity Initiative,  is part of its responsibility to protect consumers and ensure the integrity of financial markets, and its goal is to ensure that investors can have a better understanding of the risks and protections afforded them on these sites.
CFTC Commissioner: Crypto is a "modern miracle"
While the CFTC, IRS and New York Attorney General's office are all cracking down on cryptocurrency exchanges, it seems to all be part of the government's embrace of virtual currencies.  Last week CFTC Commissioner Rostin Benham called cryptocurrencies a "modern miracleat the Blockchain For Impact Summit held at the UN in New York last week. 
But virtual currencies may – will – become part of the economic practices of any country, anywhere.  Let me repeat that:  these currencies are not going away and they will proliferate to every economy and every part of the planet.  Some places, small economies, may become dependent on virtual assets for survival.  And, these currencies will be outside traditional monetary intermediaries, like government, banks, investors, ministries, or international organizations.
We are witnessing a technological revolution.  Perhaps we are witnessing a modern miracle. -Rostin Benham
Rostin hinted at the upcoming legal action against the exchanges during his speech:
Under the CEA and Commission regulations and related guidance, exchanges have the responsibility to ensure that their Bitcoin futures products and their cash-settlement process are not readily susceptible to manipulation and the entity has sufficient capital to protect itself.  The CFTC has the authority to ensure compliance. In addition, the CFTC has legal authority over virtual currency derivatives in support of anti-fraud and manipulation including enforcement authority in the underlying markets.

Meanwhile, the official Bitcoin website removed references to Coinbase, Blockchain.com and Bitpay, according to Crypto News - only one of which, Coinbase, was subpoenaed. 
http://Bitcoin.org  just removed/censored the 2 largest US Bitcoin companies (@BitPay Payment processing and @coinbase Bitcoin Exchange). It’s a good move: Bitcoin Core is obviously no longer Bitcoin, and should ideally be removed from both @BitPay and @coinbase too.

The CFTC officially recognized bitcoin as a commodity in September of 2015 when it went after Coinflip for operating a platform for trading bitcoin options without the proper authorization. Since the agency effectively asserted its dominance over the bitcoin market with that decision, this is the first time it has given its blessing to an bitcoin options trading platform. Expect a burst of institutional trading activity to follow - especially since they approved institutional options trading in July
This post sponsored by Total Cryptos @ www.totalcryptos.com