Thursday, September 12, 2019

New type of cooperation drives new markets

The US China trade war is many things that covers many industries but one thing you don’t think of when you think trade war is Blockchain.  So perhaps Blockchain is a good place to start a fruitful discussion to understand cultural differences and how to solve them.  Companies like BiKi are maintaining a positive dialogue by helping US companies list their tokens on a Chinese crypto exchange (although it’s based in Singapore). 

Let’s get a bit of history here.  First, the US has been a close friend to China for a very long time.  But during World War 2, the US saved China from obliteration by an aggressive Imperial Japan.  China was grateful and so was open to a US President Nixon who would visit 20 years later for a historic economic deal that created the Forex market and the China that we know today.  Before the US-China deal China was primarily an agricultural society.  Although Nixon isn’t credited for opening up China, mostly due to a poor understanding of his internal policies and his deteriorating popularity, Nixon’s meeting with Mao was the first event of its kind that finally led to economic reforms that enabled China to grow into what it is today:

Beginning in the late 1970s, China reversed the Maoist economic development strategy and, by the early 1980s, had committed itself to a policy of being more open to the outside world and widening foreign economic relations and trade. The opening up policy led to the reorganization and decentralization of foreign trade institutions, the adoption of a legal framework to facilitate foreign economic relations and trade, direct foreign investment, the creation of special economic zones, the rapid expansion of foreign trade, the importation of foreign technology and management methods, involvement in international financial markets, and participation in international foreign economic organizations. These changes not only benefited the Chinese economy but also integrated China into the world economy. In 1979 Chinese trade totaled US$27.7 billion - 6 percent of China's GNP but only 0.7 percent of total world trade. In 1985 Chinese foreign trade rose to US$70.8 billion, representing 20 percent of China's GNP and 2 percent of total world trade and putting China sixteenth in world trade rankings.

Today, almost every American company has a business, factory, or other operation in China.  Many of them such as Wal-Mart, Apple computer, and others rely heavily on Chinese manufacturing.  China needed a customer to grow their economy: USA.  USA needed cheap labor, and a place where factory bosses would look the other way.  Growing workers rights in USA were making manufacturing expensive.  Offshoring became the go-to solution and China was the engine.  So they weren’t really ‘stealing’ they were ‘learning’ – so it’s a little unfair when Trump wants to enforce Intellectual Property (IP) law when it was the lack of law that forced US companies to go there in the first place.  This is what’s not being discussed in the larger picture of the trade war.


In 2018, Asia was one of the leading regions in terms of growth of blockchain jobs, cryptocurrency usage, innovation, and general openness. Despite some early woes with China banning ICOs, China still produces nearly 70% of crypto mining activity. Headquartered in Singapore, BiKi.com is a global cryptocurrency exchange ranked Top 20 on CoinMarketCap. BiKi.com provides a digital assets platform for trading more than 150 cryptocurrencies and 220 trading pairs. Since its official opening in August 2018, BiKi.com is considered one of the fastest-growing cryptocurrency exchanges in the world with an accumulated 1.5 million registered users, 130,000 daily active users, over 2000 community partners and 200,000 community members in under a year. BiKi’s competitive advantages include helping projects with marketing, influencers, brand awareness, and community growth in the Chinese markets and abroad. With a global approach, BiKi also helps Chinese companies go global and international companies penetrate Chinese markets.

This type of two way collaboration is a good step to solidify the relationship between China and the world.  Many people see this as a US-China issue but it’s actually a China vs. the world issue.  China has internal domestic problems such as fraud, a bad reputation, demographic problems, and a lack of willingness to conform to global norms.  Chinese still cannot send money freely out of China.  There are 2 million internet police in China:

China has around two million people policing public opinion online, according to a state media report that sheds light on the country's secretive internet surveillance operations.  Dubbed "public opinion analysts," they work for the Chinese Communist Party's propaganda department, major Chinese news websites and commercial corporations, according to The Beijing News.

China is different than the west.  But like the Silk Road, there is always a common economic tie that binds.  China is part of planet Earth as we all are, so we need to look at projects like BiKi that are creating synergies, not tensions, if we are to stop the trade war once and for all.

Tuesday, September 10, 2019

Ma, No More: Kyle Bass Fears Alibaba Boss Will Be "Jailed, Disappeared" Within Next Year

From Zero Hedge 9/10/2019:

One year after announcing his intention to step down as chairman of the Chinese e-commerce giant Alibaba, founder Jack Ma finally stepped down on Tuesday, clearing the way for his anointed successor, CEO Daniel Zhang, to take his place. The FT heralded Ma's retirement - which took place on Alibaba's 20th birthday - as the first transition at the top of a Chinese tech behemoth, making it a major milestone for the Chinese tech industry.
Ma, 55, is China's richest man. He famously built Alibaba up from a company founded in his shared apartment into a behemoth worth $462 billion.
A former schoolteacher, Ma is also recognized for his embrace of Chinese nationalism. Last year, he revealed that he is a member of the Chinese Communist Party, and his regular appearances at Davos have helped to cement his status as one of China's preeminent business leaders.
But not everybody is so rosy about Ma's retirement.
In a tweet sent earlier this morning, hedge fund manager Kyle Bass, a prominent China critic, speculated that Ma isn't actually retiring - rather, his carefully choreographed decision to step down is the result of being "forcibly removed from his position, stripped of his shareholdings (transferred to "five unnamed individuals" with the same address), and will likely be jailed or 'disappeared' within the next year."
Clockwork-Jack Ma was forcibly removed from his position, stripped of his shareholdings (transferred to”five unnamed individuals”with the same address),and will likely be jailed or”disappeared”within the next year.This is how xi and wang treat any chinese that become too powerful https://twitter.com/pdchina/status/1171411752996810752 
453 people are talking about this
It's unclear where Bass got this information. But the hedge fund manager insisted that "this is how Xi and wang [Qishan, vice president of the CCP] treat any Chinese that become too powerful."
Jack Ma
If what Bass says is true, it could create serious problems for Chinese markets, as the international investors that Beijing is hoping to court (most recently by raising the limits on foreign investment in its stock and bond markets) would undoubtedly interpret it as a sign of President Xi's hostility to China's business community.
Moreover, it would further bolster the perception that the world's second-largest economy lacks the rule of law.
Thanks to his regular appearances at Davos and myriad other appearances in Western media (Ma recently sparred with Elon Musk about the future of AI), Ma's disappearance would be impossible to ignore. And because of his still-substantial holdings of Alibaba stock, Ma is expected to continue guiding the company from behind the scenes, something that will help bolster investor confidence in a company that, when it went public in New York a few years back, marked one of the largest IPOs of all time as the company raised roughly $25 billion.
Courtesy of Statista
So far, Alibaba investors have been unfazed by Ma's decision to retire. The company's shares have gained 9.4% this year. The succession has been tediously planned, and Alibaba and Ma often talk about the company's deep bench of talent. Ma is leaving his successor some lofty targets: By 2036, Ma hopes the Alibaba "economy" can create 100 million jobs, support 10 million profitable businesses and serve 2 billion customers around the world - up from around 654 million today. The company is also targeting $1 trillion in gross merchandise value (the aggregate value of all goods sold on its platform) this year, up from $853 billion last year.
In his public remarks, Ma has remained committed to the Communist Party line, touting Beijing's resilience and unwillingness to cave to the US, even if the trade war drags on for decades.
But Beijing has a unenviable track record of exiling or jailing billionaires, often over murky charges of corruption or tax evasion.

If Bass's accusations prove correct, Ma would be the most high-profile figure to date to meet this fate. For Alibaba shareholders' sake, let's hope he is wrong. But given Xi's totalitarian bent, it would hardly be a surprise if Ma met a similar fate.

Monday, September 9, 2019

Virtual Reality is now solving real world problems

When you think of VR you think gaming, you think simulators at family fun parks – certainly you don’t think medicine, military, or addiction.  That’s all changing.  VR started out as a toy and has moved to being a very real technology that has applications as far ranging as Rehabilitation or “Rehab.”  It may sound crazy, but it actually works!  A company has created an application for Virtual Rehab, the hot new application in VR.  It’s real, and they call it Psychological Rehabilitation For Vulnerable Populations.  The company is called aptly Virtual Rehab.

Virtual Rehab allows you to confront and to overcome your fears while maintaining your complete privacy. The solution is in your hands. #MentalHealthMatters

That’s how simple it is.  What’s really the problem this solves?  The answer is fairly long so we’ll just summarize here.  It solves a number of problems including but not limited to mental disease, depression, alcoholism, Autism (ASD), drug addiction, and more.  And this isn’t any laughing matter, many of these unresolved cases end up in death or worse.  What can be worse than death?  There are many examples, one being mass shootings – an untreated psychopath goes into a WalMart and shoots 20 or 30 people before killing himself.  We don’t have a solid and stable mental health care system in America, so we are relying on innovative companies like Virtual Rehab to come up with solutions.

In the whole world, $136 Billion is spent on Prevention & Treatment, all inclusive of all related disorders.  That’s a huge amount.  Just in the US alone, 13% of Americans take some form of anti-depressants, according to Time.com:

As TIME reported in a recent cover story, clinical depression affects about 16 million people in the U.S. and is estimated to cost the U.S. about $210 billion a year in productivity loss and health care needs. Global revenue for antidepressants is projected to grow to nearly $17 billion by 2020.

The problem is out of control, and few clinical solutions present a real practical solution.  We’re not here to say that VR is the alternative that’s going to wipe out depression.  However, traditional methods clearly do not work.  This is a new type of treatment, and a new type of therapy.  It isn’t going to harm anyone to try it.  If it takes off, we’ve just solved a major health crisis. 
Think about this.  Treatment of any such ailment whether depression or addiction always involves monitoring by a case worker, healthcare professional, or social worker.  Do you really think someone who is addicted wants to be honest about their addiction, to the point that they admit that they can’t shake the addiction?  The reality is that treatment is not easy and involves a bit of hand-holding, there is no ‘magic pill’ to make someone kick a debilitating habit like Alcohol or pain killers.

But how does it work?  Here’s a snapshot from the provided materials:

The program is presenting users with real-life situations (in a virtual world) where they need to make difficult decisions or challenging choices about certain aspects of their lives or their surroundings.  The Virtual Rehab solution is used as a preventative tool from relapsing back into addiction (for example). Using real-life virtual simulation, users are subjected heads-on with their cravings. Leveraging cognitive behavior and exposure therapy, users are presented with stimuli (i.e. cues or triggers), such as an alcohol bottle or a drug syringe or similar stimuli, where a physician, a psychologist, or a therapist, can monitor the patients’ behavior and decision-making accordingly.  Different from one-on-one or group therapy sessions, where a patient may not be comfortable sharing all his/her information since they are afraid of repercussions, the Virtual Rehab solution allows and forces a patient into making certain decisions and confronting their cravings accordingly. Therefore, what may not be realized within a traditional therapy session, can be observed and monitored as part of the virtual simulation.  Using Virtual Rehab’s patented artificial intelligence solution, throughout the virtual simulation, and through the use of certain APIs, the solution gathers data relevant to the decisions being made by the user along with their actions and their reactions to the scenarios they are subjected to. In addition, the solution collects biometrics (heart rate, blood pressure, and biodermal activity) as well as eye-tracking activity, which are leveraged to detect the actual impact that the virtual simulation has on the patient.

So here we can see the real value of the ‘virtual’ approach.  Doctors and being in a hospital environment can be intimidating to begin with.  Patients can react differently in an institutionalized setting vs. the comfort of your own home.  Most patients who suffer from addiction, depression, and related ailments do want to get better, they just don’t know how.  So even if this only helps a marginal number of patients, the impact can be groundbreaking.  And the best part, this is all built on Blockchain technology using artificial intelligence. 

Who knows, perhaps VR treatments can change behavior modification in many unknown ways.  There is something in the US called “Troubled Teen Industry” which at the end of the day is a fraud, perpetrated on desperate parents to help unruly teens.  One NYTimes article notes how the ‘schools’ are run like bad prisons:

Several former students at schools operated by Mr. Robinson, a former amateur boxer, said in interviews — some dating back to the 1990s — that he had physically harmed them while disciplining them, and that they remained psychologically damaged.

No doubt that VR is going to have many applications, but how that impacts the market of “Vulnerable Populations” as they call it, can be profound.  That’s because vulnerable populations are open to be exploited, as in the above case with “Troubled Teens”  - desperate parents will do anything to ‘fix’ their kids even paying $40,000 a year to send them to an abuse camp that only has a few ‘deaths’ on the record, but overall good reviews.

Like any technology, the combination of Virtual Reality (VR) and Artificial Intelligence (AI) combined with Blockchain can be a real game changer, we just don’t know which industry will be disrupted most.