Sunday, November 22, 2009
Sunday, November 15, 2009
The Worst is yet to Come: Unemployed Americans Should Hunker Down for More Job Losses
From the Daily News:
Think the worst is over? Wrong. Conditions in the U.S. labor markets are awful and worsening. While the official unemployment rate is already 10.2% and another 200,000 jobs were lost in October, when you include discouraged workers and partially employed workers the figure is a whopping 17.5%.
While losing 200,000 jobs per month is better than the 700,000 jobs lost in January, current job losses still average more than the per month rate of 150,000 during the last recession.
Also, remember: The last recession ended in November 2001, but job losses continued for more than a year and half until June of 2003; ditto for the 1990-91 recession.
So we can expect that job losses will continue until the end of 2010 at the earliest. In other words, if you are unemployed and looking for work and just waiting for the economy to turn the corner, you had better hunker down. All the economic numbers suggest this will take a while. The jobs just are not coming back.
There's really just one hope for our leaders to turn things around: a bold prescription that increases the fiscal stimulus with another round of labor-intensive, shovel-ready infrastructure projects, helps fiscally strapped state and local governments and provides a temporary tax credit to the private sector to hire more workers. Helping the unemployed just by extending unemployment benefits is necessary not sufficient; it leads to persistent unemployment rather than job creation.
The long-term picture for workers and families is even worse than current job loss numbers alone would suggest. Now as a way of sharing the pain, many firms are telling their workers to cut hours, take furloughs and accept lower wages. Specifically, that fall in hours worked is equivalent to another 3 million full time jobs lost on top of the 7.5 million jobs formally lost.
This is very bad news but we must face facts. Many of the lost jobs are gone forever, including construction jobs, finance jobs and manufacturing jobs. Recent studies suggest that a quarter of U.S. jobs are fully out-sourceable over time to other countries.
Other measures tell the same ugly story: The average length of unemployment is at an all time high; the ratio of job applicants to vacancies is 6 to 1; initial claims are down but continued claims are very high and now millions of unemployed are resorting to the exceptional extended unemployment benefits programs and are staying in them longer.
Based on my best judgment, it is most likely that the unemployment rate will peak close to 11% and will remain at a very high level for two years or more.
The weakness in labor markets and the sharp fall in labor income ensure a weak recovery of private consumption and an anemic recovery of the economy, and increases the risk of a double dip recession.
As a result of these terribly weak labor markets, we can expect weak recovery of consumption and economic growth; larger budget deficits; greater delinquencies in residential and commercial real estate and greater fall in home and commercial real estate prices; greater losses for banks and financial institutions on residential and commercial real estate mortgages, and in credit cards, auto loans and student loans and thus a greater rate of failures of banks; and greater protectionist pressures.
The damage will be extensive and severe unless bold policy action is undertaken now.
Roubini is professor of Economics at the Stern School of Business at New York University and Chairman of Roubini Global Economics.
Saturday, November 14, 2009
Wall Street Spends $1.8 Billion A Year on Data Centers, Tabb Group Says
Wall Street Spends $1.8 Billion A Year on Data Centers, Tabb Group Says
Proximity attracts a hefty premium from ultra-low-latency trading firms; 82% of firms say power is their overriding concern.
By Penny Crosman
April 01, 2009
With financial markets firms investing an average of $1.8 billion annually on data center space, power and cooling — sell-side firms and execution venues alone spend nearly 75% of that total — power, location, connectivity, flexibility and security are critical elements in the creation and selection of financial data centers. According to research from Tabb Group in a new report published today, "Financial Services Data Centers: Power, Proximity and Profit," 66% of the current US equity trading volume is driven by fewer than 1% of the firms deploying ultra low latency strategies that physically require being located within feet of an execution venue matching engine.
The report is based on interviews with front-office staff and technologists at bulge bracket broker-dealers, proprietary trading firms, execution venues and IT solution providers. "Once hidden only in basements of downtown Manhattan buildings and staffed with people in ripped jeans and sneakers, today's data centers contain some of the world's most bleeding-edge technology, run by some of the industry's best and brightest," says Kevin McPartland, senior analyst and TABB and author of the IT research report. "These centers house the heart of nearly every financial services business. From high-speed trading to derivatives pricing, the soaring need for compute power has made data center space the virtual replacement of Wall Street."
Although data centers will remain the realm of engineers, the front office has grown acutely aware of their importance, forced to recognize the impact of the world's changing politics and economics, specifically how cutting-edge hardware requires considerable electricity to run. Multiply that need, says McPartland, by tens of thousands of servers used in any given data center, which explains why 82% of those interviewed ranked power as their most pressing concern, surpassing connectivity and cost.
He cites an example using a single blade server that consumes about 100 watts per hour, same as an incandescent light bulb. With 30 blades per rack and an estimated 100 racks in a single data center cage, 300,000 watts per hour would be used, approximately the same amount of power used by 3,000 suburban homes in the U.S., excluding additional energy to heat and cool the servers. The 300,000 watts must then be multiplied by 24 hours, multiplied by seven days, multiplied by 365 days — all for one cage of one firm's data center. Reinforcing the point, he says, "Financial services data centers are the largest users of power in the State of New Jersey."
The TABB report covers data center business models, third-party product and service solutions, power density, carrier density, security and proximity. For this last point, he explains that the trading engine needs to be optimized, market data must by gathered with the least latency possible and the hardware this runs on must be perfectly suited for the task. "Except for a dozen or so firms at the top of the low-latency trading world, very few have a correctly optimized infrastructure to benefit from such close proximity to an execution venue's matching engine."
In the not-so-distant future, the shared services facility business model will move beyond common power, heating and cooling into the area of cloud computing where firms can rent CPU cycles and memory-on-demand.
NSA To Build $1.5 Billion Cybersecurity Data Center
http://www.informationweek.com/news/government/security/showArticle.jhtml?articleID=221100260
NSA To Build $1.5 Billion Cybersecurity Data Center
The massive complex, comprising up to 1.5 million square feet of building space, will provide intelligence and warnings related to cybersecurity threats across government.
The National Security Agency, whose job it is to protect national security systems, will soon break ground on a data center in Utah that's budgeted to cost $1.5 billion.
Ericsson has become the first vendor to prove end to end interoperability in TD-LTE, another standard of 4G radio technologies designed to increase the capacity and speed of mobile telephone networks.
The NSA is building the facility to provide intelligence and warnings related to cybersecurity threats, cybersecurity support to defense and civilian agency networks, and technical assistance to the Department of Homeland Security, according to a transcript of remarks by Glenn Gaffney, deputy director of national intelligence for collection, who is responsible for oversight of cyber intelligence activities in the Office of the Director of National Intelligence.
"Our country must continue to advance its national security efforts and that includes improvements in cybersecurity," Sen. Robert Bennett, R-Utah, said in a statement. "As we rely more and more on our communications networks for business, government and everyday use, we must be vigilant and provide agencies with the necessary resources to protect our country from a cyber attack."
The data center will be built at Camp Williams, a National Guard training center 26 miles south of Salt Lake City, which was chosen for its access to cheap power, communications infrastructure, and availability of space, Gaffney said. The complex will comprise up to 1.5 million square feet of building space on 120 to 200 acres, according to the NBC affiliate in Salt Lake City.
According to a budget document for the project, the 30-megawatt data center will be cooled by chilled water and capable of Tier 3, or near carrier-grade, reliability. The design calls for the highest LEED (Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design) standard within available resources.
The U.S. Army Corps of engineers will host a conference in Salt Lake City to provide further detail the data center building and acquisition plans. The project will require between 5,000 and 10,000 workers during construction, and the data center will eventually employ between 100 and 200 workers.
As part of its mission, NSA monitors communications "signals" for intelligence related to national security and defense. Gaffney gave assurances that the work going on at the data center will protect civil liberties. "We will accomplish this in full compliance with the U.S. Constitution and federal law and while observing strict guidelines that protect the privacy and civil liberties of the American people," Gaffney said.
On Nov. 30, the Department of Homeland Security will formally open a new cybersecurity operations center, the National Cybersecurity and Communications Integration Center, in Arlington, Va. The facility will house the National Cyber Security Center, which coordinates cybersecurity operations across government, the National Coordinating Center for Telecommunications, which operates the government's telecommunications network, and the United States Computer Emergency Readiness Team, which works with industry and government to protect networks and alert them of malicious activity.
InformationWeek Analytics has published a report on the 10 steps to effective data classification. Download the report here (registration required).
French Currency Trader and Fund Manager Blochet leaves Brevan Howard
By Tom Cahill
Nov. 14 (Bloomberg) -- Jean-Philippe Blochet, a founding partner in Brevan Howard Asset Management LLP and the source of the "B" in its name, is leaving Europe's biggest hedge fund.
Blochet, 46, a French native, worked with co-founder Alan Howard on Credit Suisse First Boston's proprietary fixed-income trading desk before starting the London-based money manager in 2002. The first part of the firm's name comes from the initials of founding partners Blochet, Christopher Rokos, James Vernon and Trifon Natsis.
Blochet is at least the second European hedge-fund founder to step down this week. John Horseman of London's Horseman Capital Management LP said Nov. 12 he was leaving as manager of the Horseman Global Fund Ltd. Blochet, who was a currency trader at Credit Suisse, had taken a sabbatical in 2008.
"Over the last few years they've built up a very extensive infrastructure and business," said Clayton Heijman, founder and chief executive officer of Darwin Platform, an Amsterdam-based provider of hedge-fund services. "It's only natural that at a certain point of time people move on."
The Brevan Howard Master Fund, the firm's largest, returned 20.4 percent in 2008 when the average fund lost 19 percent, according to Hedge Fund Research Inc. The fund is up 18 percent this year through Nov. 6, Bloomberg data show.
Blochet declined to comment. Brevan Howard, which managed $25.7 billion at the end of September, confirmed his departure in an e-mail yesterday.
Management Team
Brevan Howard isn't expected to alter its management structure, according to people familiar with the firm. Blochet was part of the firm's macro team, focusing on currencies, interest rates and other investments linked to global economic trends.
Blochet completed the Marathon des Sables, a six-day, 151- mile (243 kilometer) foot race across the Sahara desert, in 2006. Competitors cover the equivalent of five and a half marathons over six days in temperatures reaching 120 degrees Farenheit (49 celsius), with packs for food and sleeping gear on their backs. The race, which raises money for charities, was described as "The Toughest Footrace on Earth" in the 2007 book "Seven Days in the Sahara" by an event competitor.
Blochet finished the race 157th out of 800 competitors, according to Marathon des Sables' Web site.
"Following his return from sabbatical last year, Jean- Philippe Blochet has decided to cease to be an active member of Brevan Howard Asset Management LLP," the company said in the e- mail.
To contact the reporter on this story: Tom Cahill in London at tcahill@bloomberg.net
Last Updated: November 13, 2009 19:01 EST
Thursday, November 12, 2009
IEA says world running out of oil
The International Energy Agency (IEA) issued their annual World Energy Outlook, and despite a drop in 2009 demand due to the global recession, the numbers look grim. As Nobuo Tanaka, Executive Director of the IEA put it;
"...a continuation of current trends in energy use puts the world on track for a rise in temperature of up to 6°C and poses serious threats to global energy security."
The IEA is to consuming countries what OPEC is to producing ones, advising members on energy supply and policy.Their activities include estimating how much oil is available and what future energy consumption will look like, and things may be even grimmer than they have been letting on.
Oil supplies in flux
According to a report in the Guardian, the Agency may have deliberately overstated world oil supplies, in order to avoid a worldwide buying panic. An unnamed (and therefore unverified) sources claim that the US has played an influential role in encouraging the organization to "underplay the rate of decline from existing oil fields while overplaying the chances of finding new reserves." Another (also unnamed) source was quoted as saying "We have [already] entered the 'peak oil' zone. I think that the situation is really bad."
"Peak oil" refers to the point at which the rate of production of oil, which has generally marched steadily upwards, begins to decline. If we continue our current energy habits and assume no change in government policies (called the 'Reference Scenario'), we will need to produce an additional 20 million barrels a day by 2030. It is not clear where that oil supply would come from, and is projected as "crude oil fields yet to be found."
Is even '450' a stretch?
In the 'Reference Scenario', the world's primary energy demand in 2030 is estimated to grow by a staggering 40% over the current figures. Much of this increase would be in coal use, which would grow by 50% and have a severe impact on climate change.
The IEA also looked at the alternative scenario needed to hold greenhouse gasses to 450 ppm, which is generally considered the maximum upper limit to avoid irreversible and possibly cataclysmic change (we are currently at 385.) What would need to happen? By 2030, a third of the world's power needs to come from renewables and/or nuclear, 60% of cars need to be plug in or hybrid, and we need to invest nearly $10 Trillion globally in energy efficiency. These are all what I would call 'stretch goals', and is partially why others have described staying below 450 ppm as pursuing "the greatest achievement in the history of the human race."
The IEA didn't even bother figuring out what it would take to reduce total ghg back to 350 ppm, a 'do no harm' target which seems to be completely out of reach.
Pay now or pay later
Conspiracy theorists claim that global warming is a hoax designed to create new 'green' profits via cap-and-trade and clean technology. While some concerns about Wall Street are always warranted, here is the simple math: The IEA estimates that carbon should eventually carry a cost of around $50 per ton, which translates to $20 per barrel of oil. If we continue on our current path, however, demand will likely drive up oil prices by at least $50 per barrel, sending over $4 trillion dollars to OPEC members in the next 20 years, just for the oil And the cost of climate change? The NRDC estimates that in the US alone, it will be $300 Billion a year by 2030. Many put the global figure in the Trillions.
So whether for the planet or the pocketbook, it's time to wake up. Things simply will not stay the way they are. We can either start spending on clean energy and efficiency now, or pay even more for the privilege of using up more fossil fuel and polluting the planet, with dire consequences. Why does this seem like a difficult choice?
Read more: global warming, 350, climate change, 450, peak oil, iae
Wednesday, November 11, 2009
Sunday, November 8, 2009
Beat the banks: alpari UK offers 28.6% Interest on Free Margin
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Monday, October 26, 2009
Saturday, October 24, 2009
Tuesday, October 20, 2009
100 words to make you sound smart
Below is a complete list of the words in 100 Words to Make You Sound Smart:
accolade | kitsch | |
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