Currency Performance of Emerging Markets weakens

FROM RGE * YTD Currency performance as of Mar 6, 2009: Worst-performers->S.Korea (-18.7%), Malaysia (-7.3%), Singapore (-7%). Depreciated->India (-5.8%), Thailand (-3.6%), Indonesia (-5.9%), Philippines (-2.5%), Pakistan (-2%), Taiwan (-5.6%), Hong Kong (-0.08%), China (-0.2%), Vietnam (+0.1%)

Causes:

* Slowing capital flows: Heightened global risk aversion and investor redemption from EMs, bond and equity sell-off by FIIs and capital outflows from Asia; liquidity crunch amid money market turmoil; strengthening of USD. Unwinding of foreign currency debt by domestic entities; unwinding of carry trade. Aggressive interest rate cuts and low possibility of allowing appreciation in near-term are also deterring inflows. FDI is showing signs of easing amid global credit crunch. External bank borrowing and capital raising activity in international capital markets have also taken a hit

* Easing external balances: exports are contracting in all emerging Asian countries due to global recession, with most exports bound to US/EU. EMs are slowing significantly and China's imports for re-export are also slowing. Commodity price correction is hurting exports of Malaysia, Indonesia, Vietnam which benefited from 2008's commodity boom. High oil and commodity prices and strong domestic demand in 2008 had also put pressure on commodity importers. But countries with stronger FDI prospects and/or stronger fiscal and current a/c positions are less vulnerable to currency depreciation than their peers. Also, imports contracting (slowing industry, imports for re-exports, consumer demand) greater than exports in some countries is containing risks to the trade deficit

* Central Banks: To prevent large currency depreciation, central bank intervention in FX markets like India, S.Korea, Thailand, Philippines, Indonesia has increased in recent months leading to a decline in forex reserves. For countries with smaller reserves, intervention might be limited ahead. Some central banks also injecting dollar liquidity, arranging USD swap agreements with Fed and introducing other restrictions on converting currency in domestic markets. Some central banks are also easing foreign capital inflows, restricting USD outflow and currency conversion. Contracting exports is also causing several Asian central banks shift to depreciation bias to support growth esp. as interest rates cuts are approaching low levels in many countries with risk of deflation and are ineffective to stimulate lending, and size of fiscal stimulus is constrained by fiscal deficit in many countries

* Risks: Currencies will face downwards pressure since exports will continue to contract through most of 2009 and foreign investor risk aversion will also continue esp. as risks to Asian growth escalate. FDI, remittances and debt inflows incl. bank borrowings will be hit more than expected. Depreciation bias will instead raise import cost for firms and consumers, and impact trade balance and import inflation

Outlook:

* With many currencies (most notably KRW and INR) having already reverted back to where they stood at the start of 2002, the pressure on currencies shouldn't prove as extreme from here on

* ANZ: Although risk aversion and debt redemptions remain an immediate hurdle for KRW, USD-KRW will lead USD-AXJ lower later in 2009. Singapore's monetary policy to re-centre and widen the S$NEER policy band would pave way for further gains in USD-SGD. Further gains are assured in USD-TWD with staggering drop in exports, record contraction in GDP, and bleak outlook

* Scotia: Depreciation trend will be reversed in the latter part of 2009 if China resists internal pressures to devalue the renminbi; Fiscal stimulus, rising savings will limit capital outflows that have pressured the exchange rates; Developing Asia may be convinced they cannot rely on export-led growth models; implications of the U.S. financing requirements

* Morgan Stanley: AXJ currencies most vulnerable amid significant risks to growth and capital outflows in near-term but will rally once global economy bottoms; fiscal rather than monetary stimulus (rate cuts) to contain crisis and slowdown will support the currencies. Sharp depreciation of currencies against USD (except those with large current a/c surpluses) has caused dislocations in balance sheets of many companies and countries with external liabilities

* Standard Chartered: Given the fundamentals are solid and growth prospects are bright, KRW, PHP, INR, IDR to lead the rally in AXJ currencies in H2-2009 just as they led the AXJ currency correction in 2008. Small, open economy currencies such as SGD, MYR, TWD,THB, VND will weaken on slowing growth, capital outflows, global recession

* Credit Suisse: Countries most exposed to G-3 (Taiwan, Singapore, Malaysia, S.Korea) will witness more depreciation relative to those less exposed to G-3 (India, Indonesia, China, Philippines, Thailand)

* ABN Amro (not online): Taiwan, Malaysia, Thailand will perform better due to current a/c surplus, lower capital dependence; India, S.Korea, Vietnam will weaken as high import bill impacts current a/c deficit

* DBS: Singapre dollar is facing the strongest technical pressure to depreciate, based on the recession and the fact that Singapore manages its currency against the euro which has also weakened

 

Mar 7, 2009

Gordon Brown vows to end shadow banking system and tax havens

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/gordon-brown/4949859/Gordon-Brown-calls-for-morality-in-financial-system.html
Mr Brown said the new rules were about "building rewards on long term results."

He also pledged to "bring tax havens and the shadow banking system into the regulatory net."

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-r_-QRKyu6g Kucinich Bill nationalize the fed

Taleb gets Angry on Risk Metrics

FDIC does not have enough funds to cover deposit insurance, Bair admits

FDIC's Bair warns on bank deposit insurance fund

By MARCY GORDON – 23 hours ago

WASHINGTON (AP) — The head of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. has warned that the fund insuring Americans' bank deposits could be wiped out this year without the money the agency is seeking in new fees from U.S. banks and thrifts.

FDIC Chairman Sheila Bair acknowledged, in a letter to bank CEOs, that the new increased fees and hefty emergency premium the agency voted to levy last week will bring a "significant expense" to banks, especially amid a recession and financial crisis when their earnings are under pressure.

"We also recognize that assessments reduce the funds that banks can lend in their communities to help revitalize the economy," Bair wrote.

But given the accelerating bank failures that have been depleting the deposit insurance fund, she said, it "could become insolvent this year."

"Without substantial amounts of additional assessment revenue in the near future, current projections indicate that the fund balance will approach zero or even become negative," Bair wrote in the letter dated Monday to the chief executives of the nation's 8,305 federally insured banks and thrifts.

The industry, especially smaller community banks, has said the new insurance fees will place an extra burden on an already struggling sector. A federal banking regulator said last week the new premiums will unfairly burden smaller banks that didn't contribute to the financial crisis with reckless lending.

As loan defaults have soared, reflecting the ravages of rising unemployment and sliding home prices, bank failures have cascaded and sapped billions out of the fund that insures regular accounts up to $250,000. The fund now stands at its lowest level in nearly a quarter-century, $18.9 billion as of Dec. 31, compared with $52.4 billion at the end of 2007.

The FDIC now expects that bank failures will cost the insurance fund around $65 billion through 2013, up from an earlier estimate of $40 billion. There have been 16 bank collapses already this year, following 25 in 2008 — which included two of the biggest savings and loans, Washington Mutual Inc. and IndyMac Bank.

The new insurance fees are meant to raise $27 billion this year to replenish the fund.

Bair said the plan protects bank depositors as well as taxpayers, because it likely means the FDIC won't have to go to the Treasury Department and tap public money to replenish the insurance fund.

Bair has not ruled out that possibility for a short-term loan, but said she doesn't expect to take the more drastic action of using its $30 billion long-term credit line with Treasury — something that has never been done.

"Some have suggested that we should turn to taxpayers for funding," she said in her letter to the bank executives. "But banks — not taxpayers — are expected to fund the system, and I believe Congress would look skeptically on such a course of action."

Furthermore, she said, turning to taxpayers "could open up a whole new debate about the degree of government involvement in the affairs of insured banks."

The FDIC plan puts new charges on a battered industry while the Obama administration is seeking to pump as much as $750 billion in additional federal aid into ailing banks under its financial rescue plan. The FDIC, as a regulatory agency charged with protecting the insurance fund, acts independently from the administration.

The new emergency premium, to be collected from all federally insured institutions on Sept. 30, will be 20 cents for every $100 of their insured deposits. That compares with an average premium of 6.3 cents paid by banks and thrifts last year.

The FDIC also raised the regular insurance premiums for banks to between 12 and 16 cents for every $100 in deposits starting in April, up from a range of 12 to 14 cents.

Copyright © 2009 The Associated Press. All rights reserved.

http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5gv3IJ-X4AJ-eO5sSEq0_QIz7NWogD96NC25O2

Next Generation Investment Banking, US collapse predicted, Indians cannot create plumbing system

AnalysisBoston Consulting GroupChandy Chandrashekhar, Alenka Grealish, Philippe Morel and Shubh SaumyaMar 04, 2009    http://www.bcg.com/impact_expertise/publications/files/Next_Generation_Investment_Bank_March_2009.pdf

MOSCOW — If you're inclined to believe Igor Panarin, and the Kremlin wouldn't mind if you did, then President Barack Obama will order martial law this year, the U.S. will split into six rump-states before 2011, and Russia and China will become the backbones of a new world order.

Panarin might be easy to ignore but for the fact that he is a dean at the Foreign Ministry's school for future diplomats and a regular on Russia's state-guided TV channels. And his predictions fit into the anti-American story line of the Kremlin leadership..... http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,504384,00.html

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aErNiP_V4RLc&refer=home India Failing to Control Open Defecation Blunts Nation's Growth

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Foreign-Exchange Turnover Dropped ‘Sharply’ in 2008, BIS Says

Foreign-Exchange Turnover Dropped 'Sharply' in 2008, BIS Says

By Kim-Mai Cutler

March 2 (Bloomberg) -- Trading in the world's three leading currency pairs fell by about 50 percent on electronic-broking services in the last quarter as volatility climbed to a record, the Bank for International Settlements said.

"Activity levels dropped sharply across the board," Paola Gallardo and Alexandra Heath, analysts at the Basel, Switzerland-based BIS, wrote in a report released yesterday. "Market makers may have been less willing to quote on electronic platforms to avoid being caught by adverse price movements, thereby driving activity through phone transactions."

Currency fluctuations became more exaggerated after Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.'s Sept. 15 bankruptcy drove investors to sell riskier assets and repay loans. Volatility implied by dollar-yen options expiring in one month, a measure of expectations for future currency moves, rose to 41.79 percent on Oct. 24, the highest level since Bloomberg began compiling the data in December 1995.

Increased volatility can deter traders by making profits more difficult to predict. Firms that rely on electronic transactions, such as proprietary and prime brokerage accounts, may have scaled back foreign-exchange trading in line with other asset classes, the BIS said. Quantitative trading may have fallen as computer-based models failed to capture the changing market environment, according to the bank.

"Some forms of trading activity, such as automated trading, which rely on electronic execution methods and are based on rules designed to work in normal conditions, may be abandoned at times of high volatility," the bank said.

Money-Market Squeeze

The BIS said bid-ask spreads, or the difference between the best buying and selling prices, more than doubled between September and December as turnover fell. Euro-dollar is the most actively traded currency pair, followed by dollar-yen and pound- dollar, the BIS said in its triennial survey published in 2007.

As currency trading volumes slumped, short-term dollar funding needs for banks outside the U.S. became "acute" as financial institutions hoarded cash, freezing money markets, in the wake of Lehman's bankruptcy, BIS analysts Patrick McGuire and Goetz von Peter wrote in a separate study released yesterday.

Before the credit crisis erupted in August 2007, financial institutions accumulated positions in foreign-denominated assets that led to a short-term dollar funding gap for major European banks of between $1.1 trillion and $1.3 trillion, the report said. Institutions met their funding needs by borrowing from central banks and money markets, the BIS said.

The cost of three-month dollar loans rose to 332 basis points more than the Federal Reserve's target rate on Oct. 10, the biggest difference since at least 1984, as short-term funding markets dried up.

"The crisis has shown how unstable banks' sources of funding can become," the BIS said. "When heightened credit risk concerns crippled these sources of short-term funding, the chronic U.S. dollar funding needs become acute."

To contact the reporter on this story: Kim-Mai Cutler in London at kcutler@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: March 1, 2009 16:07 EST

Rogers Long Sugar Civil Unrest in US

CNBC: Roubini on Banking Transformation http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1047735517&play=1

Arsonists Torch Berlin Porsches, BMWs on Economic Woe

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=auZeM63nrgzo&refer=home Arsonists Torch Berlin Porsches, BMWs on Economic Woe (Update1)

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Rick Santelli CNBC sets stage for capitalist coup

http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1039849853

SEC Charges R. Allen Stanford, Stanford International Bank for Multi-Billion Dollar Investment Scheme

SEC Charges R. Allen Stanford, Stanford International Bank for Multi-Billion Dollar Investment Scheme FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE 2009-26 Washington, D.C., Feb. 17, 2009 — The Securities and Exchange Commission today charged Robert Allen Stanford and three of his companies for orchestrating a fraudulent, multi-billion dollar investment scheme centering on an $8 billion CD program.   Additional Materials Litigation Release No. 20901 SEC Complaint   Stanford's companies include Antiguan-based Stanford International Bank (SIB), Houston-based broker-dealer and investment adviser Stanford Group Company (SGC), and investment adviser Stanford Capital Management. The SEC also charged SIB chief financial officer James Davis as well as Laura Pendergest-Holt, chief investment officer of Stanford Financial Group (SFG), in the enforcement action. Pursuant to the SEC's request for emergency relief for the benefit of defrauded investors, U.S. District Judge Reed O'Connor entered a temporary restraining order, froze the defendants' assets, and appointed a receiver to marshal those assets. "As we allege in our complaint, Stanford and the close circle of family and friends with whom he runs his businesses perpetrated a massive fraud based on false promises and fabricated historical return data to prey on investors," said Linda Chatman Thomsen, Director of the SEC's Division of Enforcement. "We are moving quickly and decisively in this enforcement action to stop this fraudulent conduct and preserve assets for investors." Rose Romero, Regional Director of the SEC's Fort Worth Regional Office, added, "We are alleging a fraud of shocking magnitude that has spread its tentacles throughout the world." The SEC's complaint, filed in federal court in Dallas, alleges that acting through a network of SGC financial advisers, SIB has sold approximately $8 billion of so-called "certificates of deposit" to investors by promising improbable and unsubstantiated high interest rates. These rates were supposedly earned through SIB's unique investment strategy, which purportedly allowed the bank to achieve double-digit returns on its investments for the past 15 years. According to the SEC's complaint, the defendants have misrepresented to CD purchasers that their deposits are safe, falsely claiming that the bank re-invests client funds primarily in "liquid" financial instruments (the portfolio); monitors the portfolio through a team of 20-plus analysts; and is subject to yearly audits by Antiguan regulators. Recently, as the market absorbed the news of Bernard Madoff's massive Ponzi scheme, SIB attempted to calm its own investors by falsely claiming the bank has no "direct or indirect" exposure to the Madoff scheme. According to the SEC's complaint, SIB is operated by a close circle of Stanford's family and friends. SIB's investment committee, responsible for the management of the bank's multi-billion dollar portfolio of assets, is comprised of Stanford; Stanford's father who resides in Mexia, Texas; another Mexia resident with business experience in cattle ranching and car sales; Pendergest-Holt, who prior to joining SFG had no financial services or securities industry experience; and Davis, who was Stanford's college roommate. The SEC's complaint also alleges an additional scheme relating to $1.2 billion in sales by SGC advisers of a proprietary mutual fund wrap program, called Stanford Allocation Strategy (SAS), by using materially false historical performance data. According to the complaint, the false data helped SGC grow the SAS program from less than $10 million in 2004 to more than $1 billion, generating fees for SGC (and ultimately Stanford) of approximately $25 million in 2007 and 2008. The fraudulent SAS performance was used to recruit registered investment advisers with significant books of business, who were then heavily incentivized to reallocate their clients' assets to SIB's CD program. The SEC's complaint charges violations of the anti-fraud provisions of the Securities Act of 1933, the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 and the Investment Advisers Act, and registration provisions of the Investment Company Act. In addition to emergency and interim relief that has been obtained, the SEC seeks a final judgment permanently enjoining the defendants from future violations of the relevant provisions of the federal securities laws and ordering them to pay financial penalties and disgorgement of ill-gotten gains with prejudgment interest. The Commission acknowledges the assistance and cooperation of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA) in connection with this matter. The SEC's investigation is continuing. The Commission acknowledges the assistance and cooperation of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA) in connection with this matter. FINRA independently developed information through its examination and investigative processes that contributed significantly to the filing of this enforcement action. # # # For more information, contact: Rose Romero, Regional Director Steve Korotash, Associate Regional Director, Enforcement SEC's Fort Worth Regional Office (817) 978-3821     http://www.sec.gov/news/press/2009/2009-26.htm

East European Economies meltdown as US capitalism collapses, more fraud discovered in Standford

We wrapped ourselves in an intellectual security blanket sewn together by our brightest economists and many of their mathematically gifted progeny, the Ph.D. "quants" of Wall Street. We were taken in, as we so often are, by an inflated belief in our own powers. And hubris--as always--was rebuked with catastrophe.

Is It Capitalism's Fault?     http://www.realclearpolitics.com/printpage/?url=http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2009/02/the_end_of_american_capitalism.html

Given the amount of time that the SEC and the media have been sniffing around his operation, today's fraud charges can't have come as much surprise to Allen Stanford. And given that he owns banks in many different jurisdictions (the FT has found entities not only in the US and Antigua, but also New Zealand, Switzerland, Colombia, Ecuador, Mexico, Peru, Venezuela, and, of course, Panama), as well as what Matthew Goldstein calls "a number of private jets", one expects that at this point his contingency plan is well underway.    http://seekingalpha.com/article/121037-stanford-the-manhunt-begins

The China bulls have commented approvingly on the growth in loans in China, seeing it as a sign of pending recovery, along with an upswing in stock prices. We've pointed out that economist and China commentator Michael Pettis has heard quite a few reports that many of these loans were in fact sham transactions to meet government targets.

And now it gets even better. One analyst estimates that more than 1/3 of the total "new" lending (assuming that the loans were truly extended) may have gone into the stock market.

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2009/02/so-much-for-stimulus-chinese-loans.html

http://danskeresearch.danskebank.com/link/Meltdown17022009/$file/Meltdown17022009.pdf In conclusion, the crisis in Central & Eastern Europe (CEE) is getting out of hand and investors are aggressively exiting CEE markets. The most likely outcome is a very sharp fall in economic activity across the region. Pressure on CEE markets will probably continue until either the EU and/or the IMF intervene decisively.

Stimulus passes senate with Mr. Brown, AYE. Stimulus Q&A

Sometime this year, taxpayers will receive an Economic Stimulus Payment. This is a very exciting new program that I will explain using the Q and A format:

Q. What is an Economic Stimulus Payment?
A. It is money that the federal government will send to taxpayers.

Q. Where will the government get this money?
A. From taxpayers.

Q. So the government is giving me back my own money?
A. No, they are borrowing it from China. Your children are expected to repay the Chinese.

Q. What is the purpose of this payment?
A. The plan is that you will use the money to purchase a high-definition TV set, thus stimulating the economy.

Q. But isn't that stimulating the economy of China ?
A. Shut up.

Below is some helpful advice on how to best help the US economy by spending your stimulus check wisely:

If you spend that money at Wal-Mart, all the money will go to China.
If you spend it on gasoline it will go to Hugo Chavez, the Arabs and Al Queda
If you purchase a computer it will go to Taiwan.
If you purchase fruit and vegetables it will go to Mexico, Honduras, and Guatemala (unless you buy organic).
If you buy a car it will go to Japan and Korea.
If you purchase prescription drugs it will go to India
If you purchase heroin it will go to the Taliban in Afghanistan
If you give it to a charitable cause, it will go to Nigeria.

And none of it will help the American economy. We need to keep that money here in America. You can keep the money in America by spending it at yard sales, going to a baseball game, or spend it on prostitutes, beer (domestic only), or tattoos, since those are the only businesses still in the US.

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/

http://www.cnn.com/2009/POLITICS/02/13/stimulus/index.html

CBN to suspend bank for illegal forex deals

CBN to suspend bank for illegal forex deals

The Central Bank of Nigeria queried one of the top players in the banking industry on Monday evening, over its foreign exchange dealings, suspected to be full of anomalies.

This is coming on the heels of allegations that the apex bank has not lived up to its responsibility as a regulator.

According to sources, CBN auditors will immediately go into the bank to look through the bank's foreign exchange activities.

If the bank is found guilty, it will be suspended from trading on the forex market, which is still one of money-spinners for banks in these turbulent times.

"The mood is hot now at the CBN in view of the global financial meltdown and its probable effect on the Nigerian economy. So, if anything to suggest round tripping is found in the bank's books, then the bank gets maximum punishment," a source, who asked not to be named, disclosed.

Investigation by our correspondents revealed that many banks were still involved in roundtripping, despite the Central Bank of Nigeria's directive that foreign currencies sourced through its Retail Dutch Auction System must be for end users only.

Round tripping is an arbitrage transaction where retail banks buy foreign currencies from the CBN and resell at the parallel (black) market far above the stipulated two per cent premium allowed by the apex bank.

Meanwhile, the naira remained at N147.70 to the United States dollar at the inter-bank foreign exchange market on Monday.

Traders attributed the stable exchange rate to the uncertain outcome of the Central Bank of Nigeria's Retail Dutch Auction System.

"Most banks were not aggressive in their demand for dollars because of the CBN's auction today (Monday)," one dealer said.

Traders said the outcome of the RDAS would determine the level of activity in the market on Tuesday.

The naira strengthened to N147.70 to the dollar on Friday from N149 on Monday last week after big dollar inflows from the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation and local conglomerate, Dangote Group, improved liquidity in the system.

At last Wednesday RDAS, the CBN offered $200m at the rate of NI45.30. The apex bank has been consistent with this exchange rate in the last two trading sessions.

Meanwhile, analysts have predicted that the naira might fall further to between N165 and N200.

According to a report by Vetiva Capital Management Limited, the persistent fall in oil prices, diminishing oil production as well as consistent decline in foreign reserves are some of the factors that will lead to a further crash of the naira.

The report stated that the CBN would definitely meet the dollar demand by end-users at the early stage but that as soon as the reserves began to decline without adequate means of replenishment, the naira would suffer significant depreciation.

Vetiva noted that, "We expect that the depreciation of the naira against major economies as witnessed towards the end of 2008 will be sustained in 2009. The CBN seems to have abandoned any effort to support the value of the currency, probably recognising that it would be a prohibitively expensive long term policy to pursue."

Vetiva's position also coincided with that of Citigroup which predicted that the naira might weaken to as much as 15 per cent this year should the price of oil, which accounted for 90 per cent of the nation's export earnings, declined to an average $35 a barrel in 2009.

An economist with the group, David Cowan, said, "Nigeria is very reliant on oil revenue to meet demand for foreign exchange. If the oil price averages around $35 a barrel, then the naira will face significant further depreciation."

The currency lost almost a quarter of its value following a November 26 decision by the CBN to limit sales of dollars to commercial banks to protect its $52bn of reserves as oil revenue shrank and foreign investors sold the nation's assets. Oil has slumped almost 72 per cent since its July record of $147.27 a barrel, cutting Nigeria's export earnings.

"The central bank can't justify using its reserves to defend the naira in a country that is still very poor," said Cowan.

CBN to suspend bank for illegal forex deals

http://www.punchng.com/Articl.aspx?theartic=Art200902102272182