Monday, December 10, 2012

New FX Trade Repository Launch on Track



Testing is well under way for a long-awaited repository service that will store trade data for the $4-trillion-a-day global foreign exchange market, says the Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation, which expects to go live with the new system on schedule in December.
DTCC has been working with the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication, or SWIFT, to build the trade repository as part of a looming regulatory overhaul of global financial markets.
In the wake of the global financial crisis, the Group of 20 leading economies pledged three years ago to bring trading of over-the-counter derivatives onto exchanges or approved electronic platforms before the end of 2012. They also agreed to improve overall market transparency by reporting trade data to a global trade repository.
In an interview with Dow Jones Newswires, David Thomas, who is managing the project for DTCC, said it remains on course to meet this deadline.
"We've had around 22 firms in doing some form of testing and the majority of submissions are now successful," he said.


http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10000872396390444180004578015843366922464.html

Europe clings to scorched-earth ideology as depression deepens


The strategy of triple-barrelled contraction across a string of inter-linked countries has been the greatest policy debacle since the early 1930s. The outcome over the last three years has been worse than forecast at every stage, and in every key respect.
The eurozone has crashed back into double-dip recession. It will contract a further 0.3pc next year, according to a chastened European Central Bank. The ECB omitted mention of its own role in this fiasco by allowing all key measures of the money supply to stall in mid-2012, with the time-honoured consequences six months to a year later.
The North has been engulfed at last by the contractionary holocaust it imposed on the South. French car sales crashed 19pc last month, even before its fiscal shock therapy -- 2pc of GDP next year. The Bundesbank admitted on Friday tore up its forecast on Friday. Germany itself is in recession.
The youth jobless rate has reached 58pc in Greece, 55.8pc in Spain, 39.1pc in Portugal, 36.5pc in Italy, 30.1pc in Slovakia, and 25.5pc in France, with all the known damage this does to the life-trajectory of the victims and the productive dynamism of these economies.
EU policy elites blame "labour rigidities". The United Nation’s economic arm UNCTAD counters that the EU demand for "wage compression" is itself perpetuating the crisis.


http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/9733486/Europe-clings-to-scorched-earth-ideology-as-depression-deepens.html

Sunday, December 9, 2012

Financial education evades even school officials


More than 200 school districts across California are taking a second look at the high price of the debt they've taken on using risky financial arrangements. Collectively, the districts have borrowed billions in loans that defer payments for years — leaving many districts owing far more than they borrowed.
In 2010, officials at the West Contra Costa School District, just east of San Francisco, were in a bind. The district needed $2.5 million to help secure a federally subsidized $25 million loan to build a badly needed elementary school.
Charles Ramsey, president of the school board, says he needed that $2.5 million upfront, but the district didn't have it.
Why would you leave $25 million on the table? You would never leave $25 million on the table.
"We'd be foolish not to take advantage of getting $25 million" when the district had to spend just $2.5 million to get it, Ramsey says. "The only way we could do it was with a [capital appreciation bond]."
Those bonds, known as CABs, are unlike typical bonds, where a school district is required to make immediate and regular payments. Instead, CABs allow districts to defer payments well into the future — by which time lots of interest has accrued.


http://www.npr.org/2012/12/07/166745290/school-district-owes-1-billion-on-100-million-loan 

Friday, December 7, 2012

US Congress bans word 'lunatic' in federal legislation


Who says Washington can’t get anything done?
Our duly elected representatives have a reputation for being forever locked in disagreement, but apparently they can reach a conclusion when facing issues of linguistic politics. On Wednesday, the House of Representatives voted 398-1 in support of a bill banning the use of the word “lunatic” in all federal legislation, the BBC reported.
The House vote comes after the Senate approved the motion in May. The bill, which will now be passed on to President Obama for his signature, is intended to erase outdated or derogatory terms from the U.S. legal code.

Read more: http://newsfeed.time.com/2012/12/06/congress-overwhelmingly-votes-to-ban-the-word-lunatic/#ixzz2EOWAyfsQ

http://newsfeed.time.com/2012/12/06/congress-overwhelmingly-votes-to-ban-the-word-lunatic/

Thursday, December 6, 2012

Islamic finance faces growth challenges


A steady flow of women wearing hijabs, or Muslim head veils, enter HSBC's Amanah branch in the Malaysian capital of Kuala Lumpur during lunch hour.
It's brisk business for the UK lender, which was one of the first global banks to offer Islamic finance - a field that is slowly starting to rival conventional banking in predominantly Muslim countries such as this one.
Islamic finance is based on gaining profits in a socially responsible manner.


http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-20405292?print=true 

Wednesday, December 5, 2012

EU talks on banking supervision end without agreement


EU finance ministers have failed to reach agreement on setting up a single supervisor for eurozone banks after a meeting in Brussels.
Establishing a single supervisor under the European Central Bank (ECB) is seen as the first step in setting up a Europe-wide banking union.
But German and French ministers in particular clashed over the plans.
German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schauble raised concerns about the scope of ECB powers.
He warned that giving the ECB final say on the supervision of eurozone banks could compromise its independence.
Mr Schauble also reiterated his view that it was not reasonable to expect one institution to supervise all 6,000 European banks.
"It would be very difficult to get an approval from German parliament if [the deal] would leave the supervision for all the German banks to European banking supervision," Mr Schauble said.
"Nobody believes that any European institution would be capable of supervising 6,000 banks in Europe."
He also said there had to be a "Chinese wall" between supervision and monetary policy at the ECB.
His French counterpart Pierre Moscovici said the position of France was "steadfast" in support of the proposals.
Cypriot finance minister Vassos Shiarly, who chaired the meeting, called for another gathering to be held on December 12 in the hope of striking a deal.
EU officials are anxious that an agreement is reached before the end of the year.
The plans are seen as central to Europe's response to the eurozone debt crisis and global financial crisis.
"It is of primordial importance that an agreement be reached by the end of the year," said EU economic affairs commissioner Olli Rehn. "It is a test that Europe cannot afford to fail."

Tuesday, December 4, 2012

Global Banking Under Siege as Nations Tighten Local Rules


Global banking, a model promoted for more than 30 years by financial conglomerates cobbled together through cross-border mergers, is colliding with the post-crisis reality of stricter national regulation.
Daniel K. Tarullo, the Federal Reserve governor responsible for bank supervision, announced plans last week to impose the same capital and liquidity requirements on the U.S. operations of foreign lenders as on domestic companies. The U.K. and Switzerland also have proposed banking and capital rules designed to protect their national interests.
Regulators want to curtail risks exposed after global banks such as New York-based Citigroup Inc. (C), Edinburgh-based Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc and Zurich-based UBS AG (UBSN) took bailouts in the biggest financial crisis since the Great Depression. Forcing lenders to dedicate capital and liquidity to multiple local subsidiaries, rather than a single parent, may undermine the business logic of a multinational structure.

GFT leaves retail US Forex

Important Announcement GFT has made the difficult business decision to cease supporting U.S. retail forex trading; rather, we are focusing on our institutional relationships which exist in the U.S and globally. As part of this decision, all U.S. retail forex customers have been placed on a position closing only basis as of 7 PM EST, Sunday December 2, 2012. We understand that this is an inconvenience for you, so we are working to make arrangements with one of our high quality institutional partners to accept the GFT U.S. retail forex accounts. We expect that your forex account will return to its normal status soon so that you can continue trading forex markets normally. Please note that your forex trading experience will remain the same after this transition. Account holders will receive additional communications from GFT in the future to continue to provide more information to you about this transition. Please contact GFT Customer Service at: 800 465-4373 or 616 956-9273 with any questions. Again, we apologize for the inconvenience this may have caused you this evening, but we believe this is the best course of action for both you, our customer, and GFT.
http://www.gftforex.com/announcements/


Friday, November 30, 2012

Probability Trailing Stop

Generic trailing stops maintain a steady pip distance between the most favorable price seen and the stop loss. One thing that I don't like about this is that trailing stops ignore the take profit. My goal was to increase the information available by using a trailing stop in the context of a take profit.

The only information needed for doing so is the ratio between the stop loss and take profit. If I use a 50 pip take profit and a ratio of 1, for example, then the stop loss is also 50 pips. If I used a ratio of 2, then the stop loss is 100 pips.



As the price moves closer to the take profit, the stop loss should maintain the same ratio over the remaining distance. The original take profit was 50 pips. Say that the price increased 20. Only 30 pips remain to hit the profit target. The probability trailing stop adjusts the stop loss to 30 pips from the current price if the ratio is 1. If the ratio was 2, then the stop would adjust to 30 * 2 = 60 pips. The idea was that perhaps the stop loss should ratchet closer to the take profit as it becomes increasingly likely to occur.

An easier way to think about where to set the stop is to ask, "How many pips are left until the trade hits its take profit?" If the answer is 40, then the stop loss adjusts to 40 pips away from the current price and not the entry. If the answer is 25, the stop loss changes to 25 pips from the current price. The stop loss adjusts faster and faster as a trade nears its take profit.

Changing the stop ratio to something like 0.5 makes it more complicated. If 40 pips remain before a trade reaches its limit, then the stop loss adjusts to 40 * 0.5 = 20 pips away. If 25 pips remain, then the stop ratchets to only 12.5 pips away.

Test Results

I backtested the idea using a variety of forex pairs and DOW 30 stocks for the first quarter of 2009. The direction of a trade, whether long or short, was chosen using a random number. The date chosen was simply because I have M1 data for multiple instruments. The broad spectrum of results would reflect the same trend regardless of the time periods used.

All backtests were on M1 charts. The unit sizes of the trades don't matter much; I set the trade size to a standard lot on forex pairs and 1,000 shares for equities trades. All used a 50 tick take profit with an equidistant stop loss (the stop loss ratio was 1.0). The profit factors help keep the information consistent among the different instruments.

Instrument Profit Factor
EURUSD 0.96
USDCAD 0.88
DIS 0.91
MSFT 1.0
WMT 0.87
XOM 0.87

All of these backtests involve a minimum of 300 trades. The EURUSD backtest included more than 1,700 trades. The sample size for all tests are more than sufficient for drawing a conclusion. Using a probability stop with a ratio of 1.0 is a bad idea. Although the equity curves naturally varies among instruments - and would differ using new random numbers - the equity curve below shows what it generally looks like.

 Equity curve of probability trailing stop
The equity curve for a probability trailing stop on Exxon (XOM) for Q1 2009. 

The entry efficiency of the system appears solid. However, that is because the worst possible exit always shifts up. The idea trades exit efficiency for a hint of entry efficiency. Knowing that the trades pick their direction using random numbers, it is not worthwhile to get excited about this seemingly non-random metric.

 Entry efficiency for Verizon (VZ)
 The entry efficiency consistently comes out near 55-60%. The above image shows the entry efficiency for trading Verizon (VZ). 

The losses have to come from somewhere. Clearly, as the image below demonstrates, it results from the terrible exit efficiency. Results typically ranged from 35-40%.

 Exit efficiency for probability trailing stop
 The exit efficiency for a probability trailing stop ranges from 35-40%. The above image is taken from trading McDonalds (MCD). 

If you would like to test the concept for yourself, you can download the NinjaTrader export file by clicking Probability Trailing Stop. You need to email me for the random number file, which needs to be placed in the "C:\" directory. The code will not function without it. Although the tests for a stop ratio of 1.0 look terrible, all is not lost. I can flip this on its head and turn it into a profitable concept by blending it with the random trailing limit. Outcomes using a ratio of 3.0 also offer potential hope. We'll cover those outcomes in future blog posts.

Thursday, November 29, 2012

France In Big Trouble


Over the past few weeks, an extraordinary cry of alarm has risen from chief executives who warn that the French economy has gone dangerously off track. In an interview to be published on Nov. 15 in the magazine l’Express, Chief Executive Officer Henri de Castries of financial-services group Axa (CS:FP) warns that France is rapidly losing ground, not only against Germany but against nearly all its European neighbors.“There’s a strong risk that in 2013 and 2014, we will fall behind economies such as Spain, Italy, and Britain,” de Castries says.
On Nov. 5, veteran corporate chieftain Louis Gallois released a government-commissioned report calling for “shock treatment” to restore French competitiveness. And on Oct. 28, a group of 98 CEOs published an open letter to Hollande that said public-sector spending, which at 56 percent of gross domestic product is the highest in Europe, “is no longer supportable.” The letter was signed by the CEOs of virtually every major French company. (The few exceptions included utility Electricité de France, which is government controlled.)

Sunday, November 25, 2012

People lose trust in bankers


Deutsche Bank AG (DBK) co-Chief Executive Anshu Jain says telling people he works in banking is a conversation-killer at parties, as the industry fails to convince the general public that it’s changing.
“If you go to a party these days, you’re asked what you do and you say you’re a banker, people go all quiet,” Jain said before a conference on Europe’s finance industry began in Frankfurt. “We’re still the subject of anger.”

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-11-22/jain-gets-silent-treatment-as-bankers-eat-humble-pie.html 

Saturday, November 24, 2012

Black Friday Riots


Just a few stories...

If Americans will trample one another just to save a few dollars on a television, what will they do when society breaks down and the survival of their families is at stake?  Once in a while an event comes along that gives us a peek into what life could be like when the thin veneer of civilization that we all take for granted is stripped away.  For example, when Hurricane Sandy hit New York and New Jersey there was rampant looting and within days people were digging around in supermarket dumpsters looking for food.  Sadly, "Black Friday" also gives us a look at how crazed the American people can be when given the opportunity.  This year was no exception.  Once again we saw large crowds of frenzied shoppers push, shove, scratch, claw, bite and trample one another just to save a few bucks on cheap foreign-made goods.  And of course most retailers seem to be encouraging this type of behavior.  Most of them actually want people frothing at the mouth and willing to fight one another to buy their goods.  But is this kind of "me first" mentality really something that we want to foster as a society?  If people are willing to riot to save money on a cell phone, what would they be willing to do to feed their families?  Are the Black Friday riots a very small preview of the civil unrest that is coming when society eventually breaks down?



Thursday, November 22, 2012

A Deeply Divided European Union Faces Its Own Budgetary Cliff


The U.S. may plunge over a fiscal cliff if a budget deal can’t be concluded first, but the European Union is hurtling toward a budgetary precipice of its own amid clashing views over the bloc’s future financing. To avert that collision, E.U. officials and leaders of the 27 member states will huddle in Brussels starting Nov. 22 in search of that elusive fiscal compromise they can all live with. Don’t bank on any of them returning home with an agreement very soon.
Not only are France, Germany and the U.K. each dug into conflicting positions on a number of budgetary items. Those disagreements also center on issues central to the E.U.’s functioning, financing and even conception. In many ways the fractures over the next European budget reflect the differences on policy, reform and austerity separating Germany and France in managing the euro crisis. Wrangling elsewhere also directly echoes debate in the U.K. over Britain’s continued membership in the E.U. All else failing, summiteers might agree on a name change to the European Disunion.

Read more: http://world.time.com/2012/11/21/a-deeply-divided-european-union-faces-its-own-budgetary-cliff/#ixzz2D0uklI33


http://world.time.com/2012/11/21/a-deeply-divided-european-union-faces-its-own-budgetary-cliff/print/

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-20435667