EU Seeks Broad Transaction Tax

The European Union proposed a tax on financial transactions that could be collected worldwide as soon as the start of next year by the 11 nations that have so far signed up to participate.

The proposal, which marks a new stage in the EU’s efforts to raise revenue from the financial industry, came under immediate fire from banking groups. The EU plan would harm the German economy as a whole, eight lobby groups that represent industries ranging from the commercial country’s banks to skilled tradesmen said in a joint statement today.

The EU plan invokes “residence” and “issuance” ties to firms in participating countries, in a bid to prevent traders from escaping the levy by trading outside the tax’s zone, according to the proposal unveiled by EU Tax Commissioner Algirdas Semeta today in Brussels. To escape the proposed tax entirely, firms in other nations would have to entirely cease financial-services business with the 11 nations involved, according to the EU.

With the proposal, the EU is trying to curb what it sees as a “patchwork” of local levies. Like a prior, failed proposal for all 27 EU nations, today’s plan would set a rate of 0.1 percent for stock and bond trades and 0.01 percent on derivatives trades.

The EU estimates the arrangement could raise 30 billion euros ($40 billion) to 35 billion euros per year. To become law, the proposal has to be approved by the nations that agree to participate. They now comprise Belgium, Germany, Estonia, Greece, Spain, France, Italy, Austria, Portugal, Slovenia and Slovakia. All 27 EU nations can sit in on the talks and have the option to join.

EU Seeks Broad Transaction Tax to Curb Rules ‘Patchwork’ - Bloomberg

Putin goes long Gold

When Vladimir Putin says the U.S. is endangering the global economy by abusing its dollar monopoly, he’s not just talking. He’s betting on it.

Not only has Putin made Russia the world’s largest oil producer, he’s also made it the biggest gold buyer. His central bank has added 570 metric tons of the metal in the past decade, a quarter more than runner-up China, according to IMF data compiled by Bloomberg. The added gold is also almost triple the weight of the Statue of Liberty.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-02-10/putin-turns-black-gold-into-bullion-as-russia-out-buys-world.html 

Berlusconi is Back, and So Is the Eurozone Debt Crisis

Since the beginning of the year, the markets have been behaving as if the Eurozone debt crisis has been magically solved.

Yields on Spanish and Italian debt are trading more than 1% lower than at their peak, while world stock markets have soared close to all-time highs.

Unfortunately, you can expect that all of this euphoria will fade when the Italian elections take place on February 23-24.

Why?...It's summed up in two words: Silvio Berlusconi.

That's because until recently a win by the former Prime Minister wasn't seen as very likely. Not long ago, The EU establishment believed they had the Italian elections completely wired.

The socialist "Democratic party" led by Pier Luigi Bersani was expected to win and be supported by a coalition of center parties led by the EU's favorite, Mario Monti, imposed as prime minister in November 2011.

Both of these candidates were safely pro-euro, and prepared to put Italy through a fair amount of "austerity" to keep it, provided the handouts kept flowing from Germany and the European Central Bank. The status quo wouldn't be threatened.

Meanwhile, the two anti-euro candidates were supposed to be comedians.  

One is an actual comedian named Beppe Grillo, leading an eccentric "Five Star Movement," while the other  is the aforementioned Silvio Berlusconi, who is currently under indictment for sex with under-age prostitutes and therefore (in the eyes of the EU bureaucracy) not seen as a serious threat.

At best it was thought Berlusconi and Grillo might get as much as 30% of the vote between them, but it wouldn't give them any significant power. 

Well, let's just say things have changed.

http://moneymorning.com/2013/02/11/berlusconi-is-back-and-so-is-the-eurozone-debt-crisis/  

Bofa: Get Cash for storm

In what may be the first full digital storm panic, federal, state and business officials worried about the snow headed for the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast have taken to Twitter warn that a potential disaster is coming.

Bank of America led the frenzy. "Winter Storm #Nemo may bring 2 feet of #snow to New England late Fri & Sat. Prepare now - make sure you have plenty of cash on hand."

http://washingtonexaminer.com/storm-panic-hits-bofa-warns-get-cash-fema-sees-blackouts/article/2520862

Sucker Alert? Insider Selling Surges After Dow 14,000

Insiders have been pulling out of stocks just as small investors are getting in.

Selling by corporate executives has surged recently as the Dow Jones Industrial Average hit 14,000 and retail investors flooded into stocks. The amount of insider selling has usually preceded market selloffs.

There have been more than nine insider sales for every one buy over the past week among NYSE stocks, according to Vickers. The last time executives sold their company's stock this aggressively was in early 2012, just before the S&P 500 went on to correct by 10 percent to its low for the year.

"Insiders know more than the vast majority of market participants," said Enis Taner, global macro editor for RiskReversal.com. "And they're usually right over a long period of time."

http://www.cnbc.com/id/100435847

A MASSIVE Bearish Bet Against Banks Has Traders Buzzing

According to Barron's columnist Steven Sears, someone made a big bet against the financials ETF yesterday (ticker symbol XLF), and it has everybody buzzing.

The trader bought 100,000 put options on the ETF (a put option increases in value when the price of the underlying asset, in this case, the ETF, goes down).

To put that number in perspective, Sears writes, "Few investors ever trade more than 500 contracts, so a 100,000 order tends to stop traffic and prompt all sorts of speculation about what's motivating the trade." According to Sears, the trade "has sparked conversations across the market."

The trade makes money if the ETF drops below $16. It's trading just north of $17.50 today.

While the bet has everyone scratching their heads, Sears offers one possible explanation: bank stocks have been on a tear lately, so it make sense for someone who own bank stocks to hedge against a reversal by purchasing put options on the ETF that tracks bank stocks.

However, Sears says a trader trying to hedge against a short-term reversal didn't need to set up the trade this way:

To be sure, it makes perfect sense to hedge a hot fund like the financial sector SPDR. The fund has surged this year, and gained about 7.2%. But if the mystery hedger was simply concerned the financial sector exchange-traded fund would retreat from its 52-week high of 17.66, which is reasonable, there are shorter-term hedges. For instance, he could have bought puts that expire no later than March, because they would be more sensitive to near-term changes.

By choosing April puts, the mystery investor has some traders concerned that they, along with the majority of investors, are too optimistic ahead of the coming budget fight.

Read the rest at Barrons.com >

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/massive-options-bet-against-bank-etf-2013-2#ixzz2KEG0edct

Federal Reserve hacked

US central bank confirms intrusion after hacktivist group Anonymous was claimed to have stolen 4,000 bankers' details

The US Federal Reserve bank has confirmed one of its internal websites was broken into by hackers after the hacktivist group Anonymous was claimed to have stolen details of more than 4,000 bank executives.

"The Federal Reserve system is aware that information was obtained by exploiting a temporary vulnerability in a website vendor product," a spokeswoman for the US central bank said.

"Exposure was fixed shortly after discovery and is no longer an issue. This incident did not affect critical operations of the Federal Reserve system," the spokeswoman said, adding that all individuals affected by the breach had been contacted.

The admission follows a claim that hackers linked to Anonymous struck the bank on Sunday. The technology news site ZDNet separately reported that Anonymous appeared to have published information said to containing the login information, credentials, internet protocol addresses and contact information of more than 4,000 US bankers.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2013/feb/06/federal-reserve-anonymous 

Virginia moves closer to creating state’s own currency Read more: http://dailycaller.com/2013/02/06/virginia-moves-close-to-creating-states-own-currency/#ixzz2K8Cp1WNh

Lawmakers in Virginia say they want to keep their options open in case the value of the U.S. dollar ever collapses — so they’re considering minting state coinage.

Read more: http://dailycaller.com/2013/02/06/virginia-moves-close-to-creating-states-own-currency/#ixzz2K8CmYIVr

Congress eyes tax on pot

SEATTLE (AP) - An effort is building in Congress to change U.S. marijuana laws, including moves to legalize the industrial production of hemp and establish a hefty federal pot tax.

While passage this year could be a longshot, lawmakers from both parties have been quietly working on several bills, the first of which Democratic Reps. Earl Blumenauer of Oregon and Jared Polis of Colorado plan to introduce Tuesday, Blumenauer told The Associated Press.

Polis' measure would regulate marijuana the way the federal government handles alcohol: In states that legalize pot, growers would have to obtain a federal permit. Oversight of marijuana would be removed from the Drug Enforcement Administration and given to the newly renamed Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Marijuana and Firearms, and it would remain illegal to bring marijuana from a state where it's legal to one where it isn't.

The bill is based on a legalization measure previously pushed by former Reps. Barney Frank of Massachusetts and Ron Paul of Texas.

http://apnews.myway.com/article/20130204/DA482F300.html

SEATTLE (AP) — An effort is building in Congress to change U.S. marijuana laws, including moves to legalize the industrial production of hemp and establish a hefty federal pot tax.

While passage this year could be a longshot, lawmakers from both parties have been quietly working on several bills, the first of which Democratic Reps. Earl Blumenauer of Oregon and Jared Polis of Colorado plan to introduce Tuesday, Blumenauer told The Associated Press.

Polis’ measure would regulate marijuana the way the federal government handles alcohol: In states that legalize pot, growers would have to obtain a federal permit. Oversight of marijuana would be removed from the Drug Enforcement Administration and given to the newly renamed Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Marijuana and Firearms, and it would remain illegal to bring marijuana from a state where it’s legal to one where it isn’t.

http://www.salon.com/2013/02/04/dems_move_to_change_federal_pot_laws/

Greed is driving the market

CNN's fear and greed index
http://money.cnn.com/data/fear-and-greed/ 

The Bernanke Shock, Where is Germany's Gold?

The financial world was shocked this month by a demand from Germany's Bundesbank to repatriate a large portion of its gold reserves held abroad. By 2020, Germany wants 50% of its total gold reserves back in Frankfurt - including 300 tons from the Federal Reserve. The Bundesbank's announcement comes just three months after the Fed refused to submit to an audit of its holdings on Germany's behalf. One cannot help but wonder if the refusal triggered the demand.

Either way, Germany appears to be waking up to a reality for which central banks around the world have been preparing: the dollar is no longer the world's safe-haven asset and the US government is no longer a trustworthy banker for foreign nations. It looks like their fears are well-grounded, given the Fed's seeming inability to return what is legally Germany's gold in a timely manner. Germany is a developed and powerful nation with the second largest gold reserves in the world. If they can't rely on Washington to keep its promises, who can?

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article38831.html

EES: Did MJNA get too high?

Our recent article covering Medical Marijuana (MJNA.PK) was written when the price was .20. Currently the price is .45 and it's up over 240% sincewe started recommending buying it. Obviously, this is a huge move, and is cause for analysis.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/1154761-did-medical-marijuana-get-too-high

Euro crisis not over, says Wolfgang Schaeuble

Europe’s political tremors risk spoiling the region’s market calm, with corruption allegations buffeting Spanish Premier Mariano Rajoy and Italy’s Silvio Berlusconi narrowing the front-runner’s lead as elections loom.

Rajoy, facing opposition calls to resign amid contested reports about illegal payments, traveled to Berlin today as euro-area leaders schedule a flurry of meetings this week ahead of a Feb. 7-8 European Union summit. Last week’s nationalization of the Netherlands’ fourth-largest bank and a 2.17 billion-euro ($3 billion) loss at Deutsche Bank AG underscore the fragile economic health in the region.

“The euro crisis is not over,” German Finance MinisterWolfgang Schaeuble said Feb. 1 at the Munich Security Conference where fellow panelists included Deutsche Bank co-Chief Executive Officer Anshu Jain. Still, “we’re in a much better position than we were a year ago,” the minister said.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-02-03/euro-tremors-risk-market-respite-on-spain-italy-banks.html

FTC investigating Herbalife

Somewhere, Bill Ackman is smiling.

Herbalife Ltd. HLF -4.70% shares dropped as much as 12% Monday morning after The New York Post reported the nutrition company may be under investigation by the Federal Trade Commission. The publication cited documents obtained via the Freedom on Information Law. The Wall Street Journal reported last month that officials at the Securities and Exchange Commission have opened an inquiry into the company amid the public scrutiny.

The Post’s report comes more than a month after Ackman publicly said he was betting against Herbalife, a company that he says operates as a pyramid scheme. Ackman’s firm Pershing Square Capital Management has bet more than $1 billion that Herbalife’s stock price will fall. He has called for the government to shut down the company.    http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2013/02/04/ftc-reportedly-investigating-herbalife-shares-tumble/

Is the world engaged in a Currency War?

• Is the world engaged in a “currency war?”
• January’s job report had some pleasant surprises, but more progress is needed
• Purchasing managers surveys suggest growth in the US, retreat for Europe

Just over forty years ago, major economies agreed to allow exchange rates to float. This ended a long period of fixed currency values, which had been forged at the Bretton Woods conference just before the end of World War II. John Maynard Keynes was among the participants at Bretton Woods.

My fifth grade teacher had used the Bretton Woods fixings to sharpen our skill at multiplying numbers with decimals. I can still recall the conversion rate for the British currency: 2.4 dollars to the pound. Today, a pound costs $1.60. And the rate has fluctuated widely, hitting a low of $1.07 and a high of $2.60 since 1970.

Currency rates have an important influence on trade flows, as variations make one country’s goods more or less expensive to importers. The drive to export is something of an international competition, with trillions of dollars at stake. The stakes become even higher when nations are trying to work their way out of recession.

So it isn’t surprising that developments in the currency markets are getting very close attention at the moment. The euro and the yen have been at the center of that attention. 

http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/weekly-economic-commentary/2013/02/03/