Sunday, January 1, 2017

Slow death of the hedge fund era

2016 was a bad year for hedge funds, pension funds, and university endowments.  In fact, the last several years have been horrible.  But until now, there haven’t been many alternatives.  Hedge Funds became popular for investors who wanted to achieve more than the 4% or 6% offered by traditional managed investments like mutual funds.  Although their history evolved from the idea of ‘hedging’ the market (hedge funds could sell AND buy, can you imagine?) this quickly evolved into an asset class where managers employed strategies based on mathematics in order to achieve above than average and above than expected returns.  And some private funds such as Renaissance do very well year in and year out – continued to this day.  But the majority suffer from strategy fatigue, and failure to bring in a new generation of ‘quants’ that can do anything more than copy, paste, and cold call.  If we skip all the Soros bashing about how he manipulates politics (which, on the surface, is not a bad investing strategy if you have the money to do it, and to control both sides – this is a Rothschild invention not a Soros invention) – the Soros family of funds outperformed their peers by a significant multiple.  These funds were trading the markets, unlike what some may want us to believe.  Some of their policies to ‘influence’ foreign markets (historically, from the 80s) may have been seen as unethical – and it may be.  But the returns have always been spectacular.  We’ll see soon if Robert can continue the family legacy of great returns – it looks like – yes he can!  
But the few examples of extraordinary funds with consistent returns like Renaissance, they’re an anomaly.  The industry in general has suffered from poor returns, which when combined with the standard 2/20 fee model – can be disastrous for investors’ confidence.  Bloomberg ran a story recently with verbage such as "The year Big Money ditched Hedge Funds:
“There has been a massive blowback from public pension funds and private endowments,’’ said Craig Effron, who co-founded his Scoggin Capital Management nearly 30 years ago. An investor told him recently that many chief investment officers are so fed up that they would prefer to entrust their cash to a trader who charged no management fee, over one who did, even if they expected the latter to make them more money.
Public retirement plans from Kentucky to New York, New Jersey and Rhode Island have decided to pull money from hedge funds. So did a state university in Maryland and other endowments. MetLife Inc. and other insurers followed suit. Money-losing firms were forced to reduce their fees. Client withdrawals ($53 billion in the last four quarters) drove some managers out of business, including veteran Richard Perry, who until recently had managed one of the longest-standing and better-performing firms.
It's not surprising that investors - especially institutional investors, are abandoning such strategies.  As they say in trading, 'you're only as good as your last trade.'  According to Barclay Hedge Fund Data, 2016 is a little better than 2015, but not much:
4.89% is a good return, but it's not much better than you can acheive with traditional mutual funds or tax free munis.  Certainly it's not a compelling reason to drain your IRA from the markets and invest with hedge funds.  But, this is just an average, there are strategies out there that overperform this index, such as this one.
The California Public Employee Retirement System (CalPERS) is about to report the world’s largest public employee pension suffered an actuarial investment loss of $30.8 billion last year.
CalPERS manages the defined pension plan investments and record keeping for 3,007 California state and local government entities. The pension plan is also responsible for paying the pension benefits to 611,078 retirees and will eventually be responsible for paying retirement benefits to another 868,713 active and 335,908 inactive government workers.
Despite Governor Jerry Brown last summer demanding CalPERS immediately “lower its investment risk and volatility of returns” by reducing its “assumed” annual investment return from 7.5 percent to 6.5 percent, the CalPERS board voted 7- 3 on November 15, 2015 only to slowly reduce the investment return expectation over the next decade.
Practically, the slow death of the hedge fund industry is merely a milestone in its evolution.  Just like robotic strategies are now replacing traditional managers with a suit and tie, the structure of investments is evolving, too.  Hedge Funds aren't going to go away anytime soon, but how they are structured, how the fees are charged, and the strategies that they use, will rapidly change in 2017.  For example, some strategies such as managed accounts have a fee structure that charges only a percentage of profit, called 'performance fee' - with no other fees.  See one example the Magic FX strategy, for QEP/ECP US investors only - which charges a 30% performance fee from the profit.  In this model, if the strategy doesn't perform for investors, there is no fee.  This type of pay for performance model has been around for years, but will become more useful in a climate of diminishing returns and investors angry at paying fees for getting no results or even losing money.  It really is crazy, why investors should pay managers millions of dollars for losing money - it just shows how programmed investors are by traditional media, as we explain in Splitting Pennies the book.
While clients have only pulled a net 2 percent of assets so far, Tony James, the president at Blackstone Group, the largest investor in hedge funds, predicted in May that the industry would shrink by roughly a quarter over the next year. Hedge fund closures (782 in the first nine months) are on track to be the most since 2008, and startups (576) the fewest.
Any manager still standing applauds a smaller industry. Less money under management means fewer crowded trades and more chances to find the elusive alpha. Interest rates on the rise in the U.S., while still near zero or negative in the rest of the world, should also help. The Trump presidency, which promises less regulation, more infrastructure spending and the potential return of prop trading by banks, could also be a boon.
Where will the assets go?  The alternative investment industry is large - institutional funds, pension funds, hedge funds, are but a small part.  According to Barclay Hedge, there are 342 Billion in Managed Futures:
And, although the change from Q2 to Q3 of 2016 is a small percentage of @ $9 Billion, it is a positive figure, and shows that managed futures is one place funds are flowing into.  CTAs, CPOs, and other types of managed investments that have a track record should all benefit from the poor performance of traditional managers, especially those which don't charge a management fee.  But in any scenario, investors only started to loathe the management fees when performance suffered.  When performance is good - who doesn't mind paying for it?
And finally - it may shed light on the still standing FX manager industry.  While these hedge funds have suffered volatile returns, losses, and fee congestion - some FX managers have continued to perform year in and year out with the use of complex algorithms, that work in FX but not in other markets.  Now may be the time for institutional investors to take another look at such algorithmic FX strategies.
Here's a list of books to add to your bookshelf to enlighten yourself.

Friday, November 25, 2016

EES: Black Friday Sale Online at PLEASEORDERIT.COM

Our technology & development company Vector Informatics has put together an ecommerce site for R&D of emerging internet technologies (recently, we've been exploring emerging payment alternatives) PleaseOrderIt.com  

Today is Black Friday, America's commercial holiday - the 'real' Thanksgiving.  Today, millions of Americans will buy things they don't need with money they don't have to impress people they don't know.  Well, if you want to avoid the melee, shop online at Pleaseorderit.com checkout our Black Friday specials here.  Pleaseorderit.com also has free stuff, online specials, free trials - and more!


Sunday, October 23, 2016

EES: Penny Splitter Forex Strategy released for MT5

You asked for it, we delivered.  EES has released the Penny Splitter strategy, as featured in our best selling book Splitting Pennies - for the Meta Trader 5 platform.  Check it out here in the MQL5.com marketplace.
Penny Splitter (PS) is a strategy that trades on a single pair, every x pips, with a small trade, betting on a trend reversal. PS has very simple logic; If the pair is going up it sells, and if the pair is going down, it buys. It uses small trades and gradually increases by counting (i.e. 1,2,3,4,5,6); and thus 'legging in' to a trade rather than trying to pick the perfect entry point.



Saturday, October 22, 2016

EES: Author of Splitting Pennies, Joe Gelet, interviewed on Podcast

Joe Gelet, author of Splitting Pennies, was interviewed on Destiny Survival podcast, by John Wesley Smith.  Checkout what he had to say about the interview, at his site www.destinysurvival.com:

Joe and I had no trouble filling the time allotted to us for DestinySurvival Radio. He’s quite knowledgeable and explains things thoroughly.
When I asked him to define Forex, it might sound at first like he’s going down a rabbit trail. But he’s not. Listen carefully to what he says about the U.S. dollar and foreign exchange money markets, and it will make sense. Throughout his book he layers on finer points describing Forex.
Here’s how massive Forex is.
Forex is the driver of the global economy. It supercedes nation states, politics, even religion. It’s not governed by law, but by trading principles.
Our Federal Reserve plays a large role in Forex, as do other central banks.
In the book he asserts it’s irrelevant as to who owns the Federal Reserve.Things are what they are. We owe it to ourselves to know a little something about how the system works.
It’s startling to think our Federal Reserve can create money from nothing, and we accept it as such. Yet this plays a significant role in inflation, which affects all of us. Joe and I talked about this and explored what it means to have a fiat money system.
Even though the Fed can create money from nothing, it wouldn’t be wise to print ourselves out of debt. Nor would it be a good idea to go into default.
But about that ever present fiat money…
This may sound shocking to some, but Joe asserts in his book that the U.S. dollar isn’t backed by gold but by bombs. You won’t want to miss what he has to say about this during our conversation. If you’ve paid attention to the news for the past 10-15 years, you’ll observe he’s not saying anything we don’t already know.
To me all of this is terrifying. We’re living in a world whose system is based on feathers and fairy tales.
Does that mean the many dire predictions about a sudden economic crash are sure to come to pass?
Not as Joe sees it. Or at least not in the way most sensationalists would have us believe. That’s because there’s no good alternative to the dollar.
What does Joe mean when he says banks can’t do without the economy, but the economy can do without banks? We discussed that. And I think it bodes well for us, should we end up in the midst of the proverbial postapocalyptic scenario one day.
And what about Bitcoin and other alternate currencies? They’ve been touted as revolutionary and independent of the big banking system. But are they? Listen to Joe’s comments and draw your own conclusions.
If you make financial investments, Joe offers what seems to me to be a reasonable solution. But what if you can’t invest?
If you had $1,000 to put toward getting prepared, what should you do? I think you’ll be surprised by Joe’s advice. (Hint: It’s a practical position I have taken for quite some time.)
Joe’s goal is to help you and me be better prepared financially. Thus, his book. You may also want to see SplittingPennies.com.
You can listen to the podcast on YouTube by clicking here, or press play below:


TRUMP exposes the Establishment, politics a metaphor for FX

There's still a large percentage of the American population that doesn't understand money.  That's why we released our book,Splitting Pennies - to explain how the financial system works.  FX continues to remain a mystery to voters, although it may be the most important issue that can make or break the US economy in the next 10 years.  The election is a political metaphor to the lie being sold in ecomomics; the Establishment has convinced us that, price inflation is from retailers - it's small business that causes inflation.  Not monetary supply.  Another $20 Trillion USD, it doesn't create inflation.  Take a look at this chart and close your eyes and imagine, where this mass of Trillions of USD flows:
$20 or some odd Trillion (who needs to count, at such levels) inflates markets, inflates prices of consumer goods, it pushes the value of the US Dollar down.  All of these effects are plainly obvious, you don't need a degree in high finance to understand this.  But, through a complicated system of 'programming' - they have somehow blinded people into believing what they see on TV, and questioning things which are not on TV, as some sort of 'internet conspiracy.'
If you believe everything you see on TV, you might want to checkout this book: A People's History of the United States; in fact - this is a MUST READ for any investor, as it explains history from 'another' side, the side of the people.  Is TRUMP a 'people's' movement?  One thing is certain, TRUMP has blown a hole in the illusion world many have been living in these past few years.  He's exposed the corruption, and how the system has failed.  The system really did work, it's not a cliche, but these were different times.  You see, History is written by the winners, by the rich, by the haves - not the have nots.  Who is Gore Vidal?  If Bush hadn't stolen the 2000 Presidential Election from his cousin, Al Gore, everyone would remember this name.  There are, like Gore Vidal, many Americans who are part of the Elite but are not so stupid, so corrupt, so greedy, so evil - like the rest of the crowd.  In fact, there are many.  But no one knows them - because they aren't part of the social control mechanism.  They don't sell well.  Who is Howard Zinn?  Who cares - turn on the TV.
One victim of this programming system are the executives running Sketchers corporation (SKX) whose stock dropped 17%, due to a number of factors, but - well they admiteed "I know nothing about Currencies" on the conference call.  Losing millions for no reason, at least it's not helpful for investors' confidence.
Additionally, the negative currency translation impact on our international wholesale and retail sales for the quarter was $15.9 million. We believe that our international business represents the greatest growth opportunity with many countries continuing to show strong sales increases in the quarter, including China at over 50%.
"Currency Headwinds" are nothing new, but it seems corporate America still hasn't warmed up to the fact that there is something called FX, and it's possible to protect yourself from such changes, and it's called hedging.  Heck, they can learn the basics from our booktake this course, or open an account for only $1 at Oanda and get world-class analysis for free.  But it's easier to write it off as "Currency Headwinds" a popular topic at cocktail parties, and the leading excuse for losses.  Remember "Inflationary Pressures" was an accounting-speak psuedo excuse for losses?  The department of financial language modification is capitalizing on people's lack of knowledge of FX, and thus created "Currency Headwinds" as the new go-to phrase when your international business has a big red hole and you need to save face.  By using this excuse, it will guarantee them a post-employment job at the Fed, because they were quoted in a major news source saying the keyword "Currency".  This is an especially necessary mark on their Resume in case they worked their way to the top, and didn't go to Yale or Harvard B-school.
Even though TRUMP isn't talking about FX, maybe it's really a big metaphor.  This election has shown us so far how ridiculous and unprofessional the Establishment is.  Never before have they been so sloppy, so bombastic, so irrational and vulgar, with their manipulation tactics - and shown it all in detail on social media!  The fact that, after all this - people still vote for Democrats, shows either their utter stupidity, or their blind faith, and agreement that evil is good, corruption is good, war is good.  Maybe they really are reptiles running our planet, if such people exist (if they really are 'people').  
In either event, TRUMP already has won the information war.  Never before has a non-establishmentarian been in the spotlight with a full audience, outlining all the corruption and manipulation and anti-American activities of the Elite.  Any businessman in America knows it, either they are profiting from it, or they are angry about it.  But not all people know - just like people don't know about FX.  We should thank TRUMP for starting this conversation, they can kill insiders - but they can't kill us all.  
In terms of actual political measures that Trump would propose and/or enact, he listed the following six:
  1. "A Constitutional Amendment to impose term limits on all members of Congress."
  2. "A hiring freeze on all federal employees."
  3. "A requirement that for every new federal regulation, 2 existing regulations must be eliminated."
  4. "A 5-year ban on White House and Congressional officials becoming lobbyists after they leave government."
  5. "A lifetime ban on White House officials lobbying on behalf of a foreign government."
  6. "A complete ban on foreign lobbyists raising money for American elections."
Bravo!  But these measures, they are a direct attack on the current pay for play 'business' that's been created in Washington.  It's really a great and noble idea.  Making a business out of power - brokering is not a business at all.  Politicians are supposed to be civil servants, not power monsters, grifters, or agents of foreign powers (i.e. Israel, Rothschilds, etc.)  But are these measures practical?  The octopus has tentacles everywhere, and they will stop at nothing to maintain their power and the status quo, even if it means suspending elections, martial law, starting a war, alien invasion, name it.  Don't be surprised to see anything in next 2 weeks.  In the meantime, get prepared!
Don't forget that, politicians depend from one important entity - The Fed - for money.  They need your votes, but more importantly, they need money.  When Obama needs money, he doesn't beg from donors, he picks up the phone "Hello Fed?  Yes, I need $100 Billion.  For what you ask?  I'm starting a War, I mean, (cough cough) I'm worn out.. Just need to pay bills of American people.  10 minutes?  Thanks, you're the best."  
Here's a good free Forex lesson:  Guess which is the "REAL" Monopoly money, in the true sense of the definition:

Tuesday, October 18, 2016

Euro “Will Collapse” As Is “House of Cards” Warns Founder of Euro

The Euro "will collapse" as it is a"house of cards" warned Otmar Issing, the founder and creator of the euro in an extraordinary interview on Monday.
euro_drachmaPaper currency - Euro paper notes and Greek drachma note
In the explosive interview with the journal Central Banking, Professor Issing, said "one day, the house of cards will collapse”  as the European Central Bank (ECB) is becoming dangerously over-extended and the whole euro project is unworkable in its current form.
The founding architect of the monetary union has warned that Brussels' dream of a European superstate will finally be buried amongst the rubble of the crumbling single currency he designed.
“Realistically, it will be a case of muddling through, struggling from one crisis to the next. It is difficult to forecast how long this will continue for, but it cannot go on endlessly," he told the journal Central Banking in a remarkable deconstruction of the EU project.
The respected economist launched a withering attack on so called eurocrats and German Prime Minister Angela Merkel, accusing them of betraying the principles of the euro and demonstrating scandalous incompetence over its management.
And he savaged the whole idea of a federal "United States of Europe", saying the attempt to push through federalisation in a stealth manner "by the back door" has turned the very foundations that the currency was built on into a complete mess of patchwork legislation, into which it is sinking fast.
As is frequently the case when there is substantive damaging criticism about the EU and ECB from respected and authoritative sources, the interview was treated in quite an Orwellian manner. It completely ignored and not reported by most state run media in Ireland, the UK and EU.  Most state run media is overwhelmingly pro-EU and continues to ignore the serious problems and growing risks posed by the single currency and the undemocratic EU to the citizens of Europe. Nor was it reported in most corporate media in the EU which also tends to ignore all reasonable criticisms of the EU, ECB and especially the euro.
The explosive interview has been covered extensively in the more "right wing" euro "skeptic" media in the UK in papers such as The Telegraph and The Mail which means that most people in the EU will not even be aware of Otmar Issing's very real and reasonable concerns and the growing risks posed to the currency they use in their lives every day and their very way of life.
gold in euros_2016Gold in Euros - 5 Years
The coming collapse of the euro is seems inevitable. The question is when rather than if. It gives us no pleasure to say so as the collapse of the euro  will be financially painful for family, friends and people and companies in all EU nations.
The euro has even greater challenges than sterling which has collapsed more than 43% against gold this year. It is only a matter of time before market participants and foreign exchange traders' focus, moves from sterling to the 'not so single' euro. Then the euro will see a similar depreciation and devaluation in the coming months.
Gold will again fulfill its primary role which is as a hedge against currency devaluation. As it has done in the UK and many other nations in recent months and indeed has done throughout history.
Gold and Silver Bullion - News and Commentary
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Gold Prices (LBMA AM)
18 Oct: USD 1,261.65, GBP 1,031.15 & EUR 1,145.33 per ounce
17 Oct: USD 1,252.70, GBP 1,029.59 & EUR 1,139.58 per ounce
14 Oct: USD 1,256.15, GBP 1,028.79 & EUR 1,140.08 per ounce
13 Oct: USD 1,258.00, GBP 1,029.93 & EUR 1,141.76 per ounce
12 Oct: USD 1,255.70, GBP 1,024.53 & EUR 1,139.05 per ounce
11 Oct: USD 1,256.40, GBP 1,021.58 & EUR 1,130.76 per ounce
10 Oct: USD 1,262.10, GBP 1,016.62 & EUR 1,129.71 per ounce
Silver Prices (LBMA)
18 Oct: USD 17.65, GBP 14.37 & EUR 16.03 per ounce
17 Oct: USD 17.40, GBP 14.30 & EUR 15.83 per ounce
14 Oct: USD 17.47, GBP 14.28 & EUR 15.86 per ounce
13 Oct: USD 17.59, GBP 14.40 & EUR 15.95 per ounce
12 Oct: USD 17.44, GBP 14.23 & EUR 15.83 per ounce
11 Oct: USD 17.48, GBP 14.26 & EUR 15.78 per ounce
10 Oct: USD 17.78, GBP 14.31 & EUR 15.92 per ounce

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