Thursday, January 28, 2021

GME Soars 75% After-Hours, Erases Losses After Liquidity-Constrained Robinhood Lifts Trading Ban

 From Zero Hedge:

Summary of today's trading chaos:

  • GME Stock Rallies After-Hours, Erases Day's Losses.

  • Protesters At NYSE & Robinhood HQ; Angry At Discount Brokerage. 

  • Robinhood Draws Down On Credit Lines With Banks. 

  • Citadel Securities Denies It Influenced Robhinhood In Restricting Stock Trading In GME.

  • Robinhood Releases Statement Saying Stock Trading In GME Restarts Friday. 

  • Robinhood Users Complain Their GME Positions Are Being Sold Without Notice. 

  • Elon Musk Agreed With Congresswoman AOC For Investigation In Robinhood Banning Users From Trading GME.

  • Barstool's David Portnoy Starts Twitter Spat With Citadel Point72's Steve Cohen.

  • User Sues Robinhood In Southern District of New York For "Removing GME From Platform." 

  • AOC Livid With Robinhood's Decision To Place Trade Restrictions On Users; Calls It "Unacceptable." 

  • Robinhood Confirms Users Having Issues With "Equities, Options, And Crypto" Trading. 

  • Interactive Brokers Put AMC, BB, EXPR, GME, and KOSS Option Trading Into liquidation.

  • Robinhood Restricts Trading In AMC, BB, BBBY, EXPR, GME, KOSS, NAKD & NOK.

  • TD Ameritrade Placed GME, AMC On Trade Restrictions.

*  *  * 

The rally appeared to gain ground as Robinhood CEO appeared on CNBC...

“In order to protect the firm and protect our customers we had to limit buying in these stocks,” Tenev told CNBC’s Andrew Ross Sorkin Thursday evening.

“Robinhood is a brokerage firm, we have lots of financial requirements. We have SEC net capital requirements and clearing house deposits. So that’s money that we have to deposit at various clearing houses. Some of these requirements fluctuate quite a bit based on volatility in the market and they can be substantial in the current environment where there’s a lot of volatility and a lot of concentrated activity in these names that have been going viral on social media,” said Tenev.

Tenev also awkwardly denied there was any existing liquidity issue at the firm and said Robinhood had tapped credit lines as a proactive measure.

“We want to put ourselves in a position to allow our customers to be as unrestricted as possible in accordance with the requirements and the regulations,” said Tenev.

“So we pulled those credit lines so that we could maximize within reason the funds we have to deposit at the clearinghouses.”

Dave Portnoy is not buying it...

*  *  * 

Update 1730ET: Robinhood users, many of them restricted in their ability to trade AMC, BB, BBBY, EXPR, GME, KOSS, NAKD, and NOK today, took to the streets with anger in several locations to protest the discount brokerage, hedge funds, and elites.  

Update 1730ET: Robinhood users, many of them restricted in their ability to trade AMC, BB, BBBY, EXPR, GME, KOSS, NAKD, and NOK today, took to the streets with anger in several locations to protest the discount brokerage, hedge funds, and elites.  

Update 1730ET: Robinhood users, many of them restricted in their ability to trade AMC, BB, BBBY, EXPR, GME, KOSS, NAKD, and NOK today, took to the streets with anger in several locations to protest the discount brokerage, hedge funds, and elites.  

Twitter account NYC Protest Updates said a few dozen people were outside the New York Stock Exchange, with at least one person chanting "Robinhood has got to go," and "We want a free market."

One protester was absolutely livid with Robinhood. 

Someone held a sign that read "Robincrook."

Someone held a sign that read "Robincrook."

Someone held a sign that read "Robincrook."

"F**K SUITS, BUY bitcoin," another sign read. 

Tax the rich protesters also showed up at the New York Stock Exchange.

Protesters also showed up at Robinhood headquarters in Menlo Park, CA. 

"Protest outside Robinhood HQ slightly larger. Lots of people honking as they drive by, yelling about Wall Street, GameStop, etc.," said one user.

"Protest outside Robinhood HQ slightly larger. Lots of people honking as they drive by, yelling about Wall Street, GameStop, etc.," said one user.

Protesters at the Robinhood headquarters held signs that said "FREE GME" and "WE LIKE THIS STOCK."

Another sign read "ROBINHOOD LIED." 

Luckily Robinhood installed bulletproof glass at its headquarters last year in case frustrated traders show up. 

*  *  * 

Update 1655ET: Shortly after Robinhood folded on its earlier decision to block buying of several high-profile stocks, Bloomberg reports the company has drawn down some of its credit lines with banks.

According to people with knowledge of the matter, Bloomberg reports that the firm has tapped at least several hundred million dollars, one of the people said.

Lenders include JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

So, perhaps we were right when we noted below the real reason is a sudden liquidity crisis as fees from Citadel evaporates as flows disappeared.

This could be an existential threat to the popular trading app, as one questions the sanity of people who would stay with the firm after today's betrayal knowing they are reportedly facing liquidity issues.

And, while we know we are escalating a little, given that Robinhood is enabling Citadel's primary sources of revenue, what will that mean for Ken?

Robinhood has leaned on its credit with banks to weather turmoil before. In March, the firm drew down an entire $200 million facility from a trio of lenders, people familiar with the matter said at the time, as the pandemic set off a flood of transactions and steep market swings, during which Robinhood’s trading platform suffered repeated outages.

*  *  *

Update 1620ET: Shortly after Citadel Securities issued a statement denying having anything to do with the decisions to block retail traders in GME and other high-profile stocks, Robinhood issues their own statement which basically folded on their earlier decision to stop trading.

This past year, we’ve seen the financial markets become a voice for the voiceless. We’ve seen a new generation of people come into the markets, sparking conversations about what it means to be an investor. Our customers have shown the world that investing is for everyone—not just institutional investors and hedge funds.

[ZH: a voice you silenced today]

Amid this week’s extraordinary circumstances in the market, we made a tough decision today to temporarily limit buying for certain securities. As a brokerage firm, we have many financial requirements, including SEC net capital obligations and clearinghouse deposits. Some of these requirements fluctuate based on volatility in the markets and can be substantial in the current environment. These requirements exist to protect investors and the markets and we take our responsibilities to comply with them seriously, including through the measures we have taken today.

[ZH: why was the decision 'tough' if it was based on facts and risk management?]

Starting tomorrow, we plan to allow limited buys of these securities. We’ll continue to monitor the situation and may make adjustments as needed.

[ZH: So presumably the market makers/hedgies have managed to cover today?]

To be clear, this was a risk-management decision, and was not made on the direction of the market makers we route to. We’re beginning to open up trading for some of these securities in a responsible manner.

[ZH: if it was a risk decision, did the risk drop today or increase?]

We stand in support of our customers and the freedom of retail investors to shape their own financial futureDemocratizing finance has been our guiding star since our earliest days. We will continue to build products that give more people—not fewer—access to our financial system. We’ll keep monitoring market conditions as we look to restore full trading for these securities. We will update this Help Center article with the latest changes.

[ZH: except you removed that freedom entirely today?]

We are deeply grateful to our customers.

Presumably, Robinhood figured out that millions of fees from flow would disappear if they kept these stocks blocked.

GME immediately responded with a 20% spike...

And KOSS is up 40% after hours...

*  *  *

Update 1445 EST: Users are starting to report that Robinhood is selling their GME shares without warning. Screenshots like the one below are starting to make their rounds on social media. Meanwhile, platforms like Webull and Merrill Edge have also joined in the restrictions. 


* * * 

Update 1430 EST: The list of high-profile people who are infuriated with Robinhood's decision to stop retail investors from trading shares of GME (along with several other companies) has continued to grow. While retail traders were effectively shut out of the market, leaving institutional investors to do what they pleased, a disparate group of public figures, including "Democratic" socialist Congresswoman AOC and world's richest man Elon Musk, banded together to slam Robinhood and its peers. 

Musk agreed with AOC's tweet where she said: 

"This is unacceptable. We now need to know more about @RobinhoodApp's decision to block retail investors from purchasing stock while hedge funds are freely able to trade the stock as they see fit. As a member of the Financial Services Cmte, I'd support a hearing if necessary."

Musk also agreed with one twitter user who said "make shorting illegal"...

As we noted earlier, Barstool's David Portnoy has been infuriated by Robinhood's decision. 

Portnoy tweeted, "PRISON TIME. Dems and Republicans haven't agreed on 1 issue till this. That's how blatant, illegal, unfathomable today's events are. It also shows how untouchable @RobinhoodApp @StevenACohen2C Citadel Point72 all think they are. Fines aren't enough. Prison or bust." 

... and believe it or not, Steven Cohen, founder of hedge fund Point72 Asset Management, who with Citadel bailed out Melvin Capital for their Gamestop short, responded to Portnoy and said, "Hey Dave, What's your beef with me. I'm just trying to make a living just like you. Happy to take this offline." 

Barstool's founder responded by saying, "I don't do offline. That's where shady shit happens. You bailed out Melvin cause he's you're boy along with Citadel. I think you had a strong hand in today's criminal events to save hedge funds at the cost of ordinary people. Do you unequivocally deny that?" 

Cohen responded: 

"What are you talking about? I unequivocally deny that accusation. I had zero to do with what happened today Btw, If I want to make an additional investment with somebody that is my right if it's in the best interest of my investors Chill out" 

Portnoy has already released a meme of the Twitter spat between himself and Cohen. 

Speaking of today's events, Chamath Palihapitiya tweeted, "In moments of uncertainty, when courage and strength are required, you find out who the true corporatist scumbags are." 

We wonder who Palihapitiya is speaking of when he mentions "who the true corporatist scumbags are."

* * * 

Update 1232 EST: Following the outrage of stock manipulation from AOC, Brendon Nelson (presumably a Robinhood user), sued Robinhood Financial LLC, Robinhood Securities, LLC, and Robinhood Markets, Inc. in the Southern District of New York this afternoon for "removing Gamestop from its trading platform." 

The lawsuit reads: 

"Robinhood purposefully, willfully, and knowingly removing the stock "GME" from its trading platform in the midst of an unprecedented stock rise thereby deprived retail investors of the ability to invest in the open-market and manipulating the open-market." 

Social media users on Twitter were infuriated by the trade restrictions Robinhood and other discount brokerages placed on clients this morning. Some said: 

 "Now add TD Ameritrade who did the same yesterday and had price manipulated /price fixed/ caused MV buying power destabilizations, that affected not just these stocks. and they did not have the same trading rules on aftermarket or premarket when Institutions covered took profits," on Twitter user said. 

"Does this suit mention Robinhood's relationship with Citadel, who are deeply interested in the shorting of GME?" someone else said. 

Barstool's David Portnoy tweeted, "Everybody On Wall Street Who Had A Hand In Today’s Crime Needs To Go To Prison." 

* * * 

Update 1155 EST:  Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (AOC) is absolutely livid with Robinhood's decision to place trade restrictions on users from purchasing certain stocks while large financial institutions can "freely trade the stocks." 

AOC called this double-standard "unacceptable." 

"This is unacceptable. We now need to know more about @RobinhoodApp's decision to block retail investors from purchasing stock while hedge funds are freely able to trade the stock as they see fit. As a member of the Financial Services Cmte, I'd support a hearing if necessary," AOC tweeted. 

Meanwhile, Barstool Sports' Dave Portnoy said he's down a "milly," (we believe that's a reference to $1MM) following the trade restrictions placed by Robinhood and other discount brokerages. He called Robinhood trading app "crooks" and started calling out executives on Twitter.

Portnoy still thinks "$amc and $nok come back the second the free markets open again." 

Portnoy had this message to the founder of Robinhood: 

Even rapper Ja Rule chimed into the discussion about the corruption on Wall Street. He said, "They hedge fund guy shorted these stocks now we can’t buy them ppl start selling out of fear... we lose money they make money on the short... THIS IS A FUCKING CRIME!!!"

And that's coming from the guy who helped organize Fyre Fest.

* * * 

Update 1141 EST: Robinhood is reportedly adding more names to its restricted list, including American Airlines, which was up more than 70% at one point in pre-market trading this morning.

ROBINHOOD ADDS AAL, CTRM, SNDL, OTHERS TO RESTRICTED TRADING

Additionally, it looks as though the first of what is likely to be many lawsuits has been filed against Robinhood. We wonder if Citadel has a good lawyer they can recommend?

ROBINHOOD CUSTOMER SUES OVER REMOVAL OF GAMESTOP

Update 1103 EST: Everyone seems to be piling on Robinhood, including hip hop artist and Fyre Festival bankroller Ja Rule, who says "this is a fucking CRIME" about the measures Robinhood is taking.

Update 1017 EST: Bloomberg is reporting that the SEC and Fed will likely take "little action" over the trading in GameStop and other names - but that it may include a trading suspension in the names.

Analysts told BBG: “We do not believe the SEC will issue an emergency order nor will the Fed change margin requirements. The only possible action that will potentially be taken is the SEC suspending trading in one or more of the names for one to two business days”

Update 0950 EST: Robinhood (once again) appears to be down. There's no word on whether the disruption is just from the volatility or whether or not it is directly related to the platform's ban of buying certain equities:

ROBINHOOD SAYS ISSUES WITH EQUITIES, OPTIONS, CRYPTO TRADING
ROBINHOOD SAYS DISRUPTION WITH IOS, ANDROID AND WEB APP
ROBINHOOD SAYS EXPERIENCING SERVICE DISRUPTION

Update 0925 EST: Interactive Brokers has joined Robinhood and has put option trading in some names into liquidation. This headline crossed the terminal around 0925EST:

INTERACTIVE BROKERS PUTS SOME OPTION TRADING INTO LIQUIDATION

In a statement to CNBC, IB said: 

“As of midday yesterday, (1/27/2021) Interactive Brokers has put AMC, BB, EXPR, GME, and KOSS option trading into liquidation only due to the extraordinary volatility in the markets. In addition, long stock positions will require 100% margin and short stock positions will require 300% margin until further notice. We do not believe this situation will subside until the exchanges and regulators halt or put certain symbols into liquidation only. We will continue to monitor market conditions and may add or remove symbols as may be warranted.”

Additionally, Robinhood has released the following statement:

“We continuously monitor the markets and make changes where necessary. In light of recent volatility, we are restricting transactions for certain securities to position closing only, including $AMC, $BB, $BBBY, $EXPR, $GME, $KOSS, $NAKD and $NOK. We also raised margin requirements for certain securities.”

We can't help but wonder...

Update 0842 EST: Barstool Sports' Dave Portnoy has weighed in on the restriction, stating "Either @RobinhoodApp allows free trading or it’s the end of Robinhood. Period."

He has also Tweeted: "And it turns out @RobinhoodApp is the biggest frauds of them all. “Democratizing finance for all” except when we manipulate the market cause too many ordinary people are getting rich."

He continued: "Somebody is going to have to explain to me in what world [Robinhood] and others literally trying to force a crash by closing the open market is fair? They should all be in jail."

--

One day after TD Ameritrade implemented unprecedented restrictions on trading in GME, AMC and other massive short squeezes, on Thursday morning reports are circulating on social media that Robinhood is no longer allowing GameStop or AMC share purchases.

"Robinhood Removes GameStop, AMC; Puts Notice On Pages Saying 'You Can Close Out Your Position On This Stock, But You Can Not Purchase Additional Shares'," Benzinga reported at about 0830 EST. 

The report was corroborated by additional sources shortly after 0830 EST.

Users are reporting the same on Twitter.

There are also scattered reports that the app has restricted BlackBerry. Users on social media are furious:

Developing...

Robinhood Halts Buying In GameStop And AMC; Barstool's Portnoy Slams App: "They Should All Be In Jail"

 From Zero Hedge:

Update 0842 EST: Barstool Sports' Dave Portnoy has weighed in on the restriction, stating "Either @RobinhoodApp allows free trading or it’s the end of Robinhood. Period."

He has also Tweeted: "And it turns out @RobinhoodApp is the biggest frauds of them all. “Democratizing finance for all” except when we manipulate the market cause too many ordinary people are getting rich."

He continued: "Somebody is going to have to explain to me in what world [Robinhood] and others literally trying to force a crash by closing the open market is fair? They should all be in jail."

--

One day after TD Ameritrade implemented unprecedented restrictions on trading in GME, AMC and other massive short squeezes, on Thursday morning reports are circulating on social media that Robinhood is no longer allowing GameStop or AMC share purchases.

"Robinhood Removes GameStop, AMC; Puts Notice On Pages Saying 'You Can Close Out Your Position On This Stock, But You Can Not Purchase Additional Shares'," Benzinga reported at about 0830 EST. 

The report was corroborated by additional sources shortly after 0830 EST.

Users are reporting the same on Twitter.

There are also scattered reports that the app has restricted BlackBerry. Users on social media are furious:

Developing...

Wednesday, January 27, 2021

Most Shorted Names Tumble After WallStreetBets Reddit Page Goes Private

 From Zero Hedge:

Update 645pm ET: And just like that the infamous r/WallStreetBets subreddit which destroyed at least one hedge funds. and even cost legendary trader Steve Cohen 10-15% in losses in January...

  • COHEN'S POINT72 LOSES 10-15% AMID HEDGE FUND LOSSES THIS MONTH

... has "gone private", which means that only people who are invited can join.

The move comes just moments after we showed that today was an absolute record day for WSB, which had a whopping 800,000 people join it in one day, the equivalent of $1.1 billion in stimmy checks..

And since it will be that much more difficult to bring new entrants to the forum, it is hardly a surprise that the most shorted stocks which exploded in recent days, are suddenly tumbling with GME down almost $100 after hours on the news...

... and AMC is tumbling too.

So it is over? We doubt it: while the original subreddit may well have enough critical mass to continue its bull raids for the time being, it's only a matter of time before the members regroup and find a venue that welcomes them.

Maybe Parler?

To be sure, the "autists" are not happy, and have a simple message: "FUCK WALL STREET, FUCK THE SHORTS."

* *  *

Update 625pm ET: Until now, the only sure way to be shut down by a silicon valley tech titan was to be a conservative website or twitter account. Not anymore: as of this evening, the wrath of the tech giants has converged with that of the largest US hedge funds, and according to The Verge, Discord has banned the server of the r/WallStreetBets subreddit.

Discord told the Verge it did not ban the server for financial fraud (because there was none)  but rather because it continued to allow “hateful and discriminatory content after repeated warnings" which of course is not only laughable, but has become the generic excuse of Wall Street titans to shut down anyone they don't want "polluting" the internet airwaves which it now appears a handful of billionaires decide who can and who can't be on.

One wonders which hedge fund - Citadel or Point72 - made a quick call to the Discord board to make sure the massive short ramps cease.

Here is Discord’s full statement:

The server has been on our Trust & Safety team’s radar for some time due to occasional content that violates our Community Guidelines, including hate speech, glorifying violence, and spreading misinformation. Over the past few months, we have issued multiple warnings to the server admin.

Today, we decided to remove the server and its owner from Discord for continuing to allow hateful and discriminatory content after repeated warnings.

To be clear, we did not ban this server due to financial fraud related to GameStop or other stocks. Discord welcomes a broad variety of personal finance discussions, from investment clubs and day traders to college students and professional financial advisors. We are monitoring this situation and in the event there are allegations of illegal activities, we will cooperate with authorities as appropriate.

The question now is whether reddit will do the same to r/Wallstreetbets as it did to r/Donaldtrump and bans it and, if so, does it mean that any young enterprising trader is just as bad as the MAGArs in the eyes of the tech establishment.

* * *

Update 5:55pm ET: In a day when regulators, brokerages, and even the administration launched a full-court press to halt the marketwide short squeezes launched by Robinhood daytraders armed with stimmy checks and inspired by Reddit's forums - because a few hedge funds complained or were put out of business - Reddit's infamous WallStreetBets, the alleged origin of many of these bull raids, has published a response to the SEC. We present it without commentary.

"To the SEC retards in this sub: go fuck yourself. Why don't you start investigating why companies can shut down trading so their hedge fund buddies don't lose money. But when people lose money it's completely okay. Eat a dick," r/WallStreetBets said, which has already garnered 122k upvotes. 

Reddit users of r/WallStreetBets were apparently trashed all day by CNBC hosts and guests, with some calling average retail investors "unsophisticated." Well, if they were so "unsophisticated," then the question begs, how did a bunch of millennials on the Reddit forum unleash one of the biggest "mother of all short squeezes," and during the process, blow up multiple hedge funds who were overleveraged in Gamestop short positions. 

One Reddit user said, "SEC I have proof of malfeasance. A group of hedge funds shorted the ever-living fuck out of GME putting themselves in this position. What repercussions should they face? Or is it because they're somehow better than retail investors they shouldn't face any penalties? We. Like. The. Stock." 

"Hedge funds simply got cocky and made the incredibly idiotic move of reaching 140% shorts in a stock. If we hadn't seen that, someone else would and the result would be the same. Because that's obviously going to bite you in the ass. There's nothing coordinated or sophisticated about it. It's legit dumber than anything I've ever seen in this sub and I've been here a while," another Reddit user said. 

But, "what it?" Well, the following post by the so-called WSB chairman (with 190K followed), and which was liked by Elon Musk, reveals the thinking of what happens next...

* * *

Earlier:

Just hours after Jen Psaki informed the world that Joe Biden is closely tracking the turmoil in the most shorted stocks...

... The SEC released a statement Wednesday after-hours echoing Uncle Jone, that it too was closely following the insanity in the market.

"We are aware of and actively monitoring the on-going market volatility in the options and equities markets and, consistent with our mission to protect investors and maintain fair, orderly, and efficient markets, we are working with our fellow regulators to assess the situation and review the activities of regulated entities, financial intermediaries, and other market participants," Acting Chair Allison Herren Lee Pete Driscoll, Director, Division of Examinations Christian Sabella, Acting Director, Division of Trading and Markets wrote in a statement. 

While the SEC's did not mention individual company names, it was clear that the the was referring to the monster moves in the various most shorted names, including the extensively discussed explosions in Gamestop, AMC, BlackBerry Limited and countless other shorts which r/Wallstreetbets went after in hopes of forcing short squeezes.

GameStop's parabolic rise - which has become a poster child of all that is wrong with this bubble market - is a clear reminder of the Dot Com bubble insanity. Even fund manager Michael Burry who was long Gamestop, called the move "unnatural, insane, and dangerous."

Sure enough, in a hint of what may be coming, overnight William Galvin, Massachusetts' top securities regulator, said today that Gamestop trading could suggest something is "systemically wrong" with the market. Around midday, TD Ameritrade told clients that it would impose restrictions on certain trades involding GME, AMC and other stocks...

... ahead of what may be a marketwide halt in trading in these names as hedge funds come crying to mommy.

Already some industry watchers are speculating that it is only a matter of time before Reddit will be subpoenaed to explain how a bunch of teenagers destroyed a hedge fund.

Also earlier, the CEO of Nasdaq, Adena Friedman, suggest a halt to trading to allow big investors to "recalibrate their positions' to combat reddit users

Then again, the ramp may continue for a while because after being asked explicitly on at least two occasions, uberprinter Jerome Powell refused to answer questions related to Gamestop's parabolic rise, suggesting that the bubble is only going to get bigger.

While major online brokers were down, LevelX was up

 A new generation of traders has caused unprecedented volatility in stocks they like, such as GameStop (GME).  As reported by Market Watch, the flurry of activity caused many brokerages to fail, as explained here:

Disruptions were reported at several major retail brokerages Wednesday morning, following the speculative surge of interest in companies including GameStop GME, +105.73% and AMC Entertainment AMC, +170.77%, as well as a big drop in the major stock-market indexes including the S&P 500 SPX, -1.56%. The website Down detector reported disruptions to TD Ameritrade, Robinhood, E-trade, Charles Schwab, Fidelity Investments, Interactive Brokers and Vanguard, as well as the Reddit message board that has triggered much of the activity.[1]

LevelX was up the entire time, received no downtime or temporary service issues.  Customers were able to buy puts on all equities and short the stock, buy the stock, and other operations.  “Traders were able to trade the volatile markets we saw yesterday, on the LevelX app and on our Pro Trader platform,” said Christopher Infante, CEO of LevelX Capital LLC.  “We have received a lot of new business from disgruntled traders looking for a broker who is up all the time, even when the market is volatile.”

Strangely, there was also a massive internet outage across the East Coast yesterday, as reported by Verizon.

In the case of other online brokerages, this seems to be an ongoing issue, as these firms have struggled to provide necessary bandwidth for a growing customer base.

What’s clear is there is a macro demographic shift happening, a new generation of traders.  They are making their investments in companies like Gamestop $GME as a protest ‘against WallStreet’ and they succeeded, for now.  In a public statement on YouTube, Citron founder Andrew Left welcomed this new generation of traders, and explained them that 17 years ago, before Reddit, there was Citron.  

Will the situation with GameStop bring attention to stock trading as a form of activism?  Sustainable funds have used their dollars to further their causes for years, and it works.  Sustainable funds invest in companies that adhere to certain environmental rules but make money at the same time.

Visit www.levelx.com

Risk Disclosure

Trading of stocks and all other investment products involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for every investor. The value of stocks may fluctuate and as a result, clients may lose more than their original investment.

Private equity securities are speculative and illiquid and involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for every investor. The value of stocks may fluctuate and as a result, clients may lose more than their original investment.

GameStopped

 From Zero Hedge:

The Urban Dictionary gets a new definition.

We Get Mail

Last month, we got an email from a subscriber who noticed some overlap between the stocks that he saw on r/WallStreetBets and our top names list. He noted that our site and WSB had both been bullish on AMD and Penn National Gaming (PENN), and predicted GameStop (GME) would soon end up our list: 

I’m seeing a direct correlation from some of the names on your list and the r/wallstreetbets

Subreddit: r/wallstreetbets

Names that pop up in there usually seem to appear on your list a day or two later.

Could you write a piece about why you think that is and why your top names might be affected by “meme stock” buying frenzy that happens in there?

For example. I predict GME will appear on your list by today’s close or possibly this week. They have been pumping GME hard and now that Ryan Cohen has upped his stake in the company it’s beginning to pay off for those that got in on it. I sadly did not.

Sadly, it didn't make our top names list either. We got that email on December 23rd; between then and Tuesday's close, GameStop was up another 619%. 

Chart
 

Let's talk about what's going on with GameStop, your clever idea to buy puts on it, and why it never made our top names. We'll close with possible consolation prize: a small cap with a parabolic chart that did make our top names. 

Striking Back At The Establishment

In a post earlier this month (The Establishment Strikes Back), we wrote about how the capital wing of establishment cracked down on Trump and his supporters. One motivation behind WallStreetBets' short squeeze/gamma squeeze is of course to make money. But another apparently is to strike back at the establishment. One cynical tweeter tied the two points neatly together: 

The Cohen he refers to there is Stephen A. Cohen, whose Point72 Asset Management, along with Citadel, had to pour additional billions into Melvin Capital as Melvin got GameStopped. 

WSB poster "Consygiere" expressed similar sentiments in a popular post on the board early Wednesday: 

This is not about $GME anymore, this is about setting terms straight:

Retail does not want to be manipulated anymore.

For decades Wall Street was manipulating securities, getting away with it, and blaming it on others. Through the media, bullshit target prices, naked short selling, or other forms of manipulation mentioned here (Kenneth, this one's for you). Citadel and many other MMs - don't misinterpret with Market Makers, we're talking about Market Manipulators here - got away with their dirty tactics to make shitload of money and screw people over. They finally got caught in their own game and tried everything to turn it around, but Shitron didn't work, the media didn't work, more aggressive selling didn't work. Now they're calling through some random crooks for regulations.

BULLSHIT. Regulation for what? Exchange of ideas? Our own Due Diligence? Winning against you in your own game? Yeah, in most cases your buddies at the SEC would gladly do so if you tell them anyway. This time though? People finally came to the realisation what the fuck you guys are doing over there. It was known by many since 2008 but people forgot quickly, and now is the time to remind them that you are no one else's friend but your crooked buddies.

What's Next For GameStop?

As I type this, it's already up another 100% in the pre-market. In the immortal words of WSB poster "SDBcop", "We can remain retards longer than they can stay solvent". 

So You're Thinking Of Buying Puts On It

That seems like a clever idea, right? The bubble's got to pop at some point, and by buying puts instead of just shorting GME like the morons at Melvin did, your downside risk will be limited to the cost of the puts. True, but have you checked the cost of puts on GameStop? On Tuesday, if you scanned for the optimal, or least expensive puts to hedge against a decline of up to 63% on GME over the next six months, you got this error message: 

This and the subsequent screen capture are via the Portfolio Armor iPhone app.

You got that error because the cost of hedging against a greater-than-63% decline in GME over that time frame was itself greater than 63% of position value. The smallest decline you could hedge against this way was a decline of >64%. 

And as you can see there, the cost of that hedge as a percentage of position value was a whopping 61.46%. 

Why GameStop Didn't Make Our Top Names

In a nutshell, the cost of the puts has been too high for us, throughout this parabolic move. Our system looks at the costs of out-of-the-market puts and calls on securities in part to gauge options market sentiment on them, and in part to make sure they can be cost-effectively hedged. All else equal, Redditors bidding up the price of OTM call options on GME was bullish with respect to our gauges of options market sentiment, but the rising cost of GME's OTM put options outweighed that for us. 

A Possible Consolation Prize: Bionano

 

Bionano's Saphyr optimal genome mapping system.

Each trading day, our system selects the ten names it estimates will perform best over the next six months. Usually, these include large cap stocks, but last month we picked up a couple of small caps, Nano Dimension (NNDM) on December 11th, and Ampio Pharmaceuticals (AMPE) on December 17th. By late December, both were up big, as we wrote at the time ("Big Gains From Small Names"). As of Tuesday's close, AMPE was down about 4.5% since it hit our top ten, but NNDM was up about 154%.

Our top names from December 11th (image via Portfolio Armor).

Last Thursday, another small cap name hit our top ten: Bionano Genomics (BNGO). Since then, it's up more than 47%.

Chart
 

 

Bionano popped up on our top ten again on Tuesday, suggesting the stock has more room to run. Unlike GME it can be cost-effectively hedged, so if you decide to buy it, consider hedging in case we end up being wrong about it. 

Monday, January 25, 2021

Private equity could face a reckoning as power shifts in Congress

 From Pitchbook:

After years of operating with minimal government intervention, the US private equity industry could face new regulatory scrutiny in 2021 and beyond.

Democrats now control both chambers of Congress and the White House, giving progressive lawmakers who have long criticized the PE industry their best chance yet to enact significant change.

Chief among those lawmakers is Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), the primary force behind the Stop Wall Street Looting Act, a comprehensive bill first introduced in 2019. The proposed legislation never left committee in a Senate controlled by Republicans. But Warren is now set to reintroduce her effort to regulate an industry she has derided for debt-heavy deals that can lead to layoffs, bankruptcies and other woes while exposing firms to few risks.

If passed, the bill would tax capital gains as regular income, ban dividends in the first two years a private equity firm owns a portfolio company, and hold firms responsible for debt and legal obligations incurred at portfolio companies under their ownership, among other outcomes.

"Senator Warren will continue her push to rein in the private equity industry this year," a Warren spokesperson told PitchBook. "And that includes holding these predatory companies accountable for lining the pockets of wealthy firms at the expense of struggling workers during the COVID-19 crisis, and wreaking havoc on low-income Americans at risk of losing their homes."

In terms of the pandemic's effect on private equity, the industry's top lobbying group takes the opposite view of Warren.

"Our nation is experiencing a serious economic downturn," said a spokesperson for the American Investment Council. "And now would be the worst time to pass legislation that will discourage investment in businesses and destroy jobs."

Indeed, any efforts to seriously reassess the role of private equity may have to wait. The newly blue Congress has several other high priorities, including efforts to pass another economic stimulus package and an infrastructure plan as well as holding a second impeachment trial for former President Donald Trump.

"I think the Biden administration has many catastrophes to contend with to move on PE in year one," said Eileen Appelbaum, a frequent private equity critic who has testified before Congress in support of the Stop Wall Street Looting Act. "Hopefully, there will be Congressional hearings to tee up financial reform in year two."

Not every member of Warren's party will be on board with her latest push. When the House held hearings in late 2019 to look at private equity's role in a string of retail bankruptcies, including Toys R Us, several Democrats voiced support for the industry's role in creating jobs in their districts.

One newly empowered lawmaker who could set his sights on private equity is Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio), who was recently named chairman of the Senate Banking Committee. Politico reported this week that Brown, a co-sponsor for Warren's bill, plans to hold public hearings to examine private equity's influence.

Appointees joining the Biden administration could also play a role in determining how private equity is regulated.

Last week, President Biden nominated Gary Gensler to lead the SEC. A former partner at Goldman Sachs and the head of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission in the Obama administration, Gensler has since become known for clashes with big banks over their role in the global financial crisis. The expectation is Gensler, if confirmed, would be an aggressive advocate for Wall Street regulation.

Biden also tapped Rohit Chopra, a Warren disciple and commissioner of the FTC, to head the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. Last year, Chopra lobbied Congress to require private equity firms to notify the FTC of smaller add-on deals, describing such firms as "vulture investors" and expressing concern about potential monopolies in the healthcare industry.

One shift that could have more immediate impact would be increased congressional funding for the IRS, which was gutted under the Trump administration. A renewed push by the agency to investigate investment funds and monitor fees could increase transparency about whether those dividends were used to either enrich executives or actually pay their LPs.

"That would achieve one of the important ends of the Stop Wall Street Looting Act," Appelbaum said.

Sen. Elizabeth Warren, who has long railed against private equity, plans to renew her efforts to bring major changes to the industry. (Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)