Sunday, February 8, 2009

Stimulus, Marxism, revolution, and the breakdown of modern economics

This week President Obama claimed that failure to pass his economic stimulus bill will have catastrophic consequences for the U.S economy. The reality is the catastrophe will be far greater with his plan than without it. If the trends of January and early February of 2009 continue, the rug will be completely pulled out from beneath the U.S. economy, and the full cost of the President's "economic depressant package" will be apparent to all.

If foreign capital does .... http://seekingalpha.com/article/119199-this-is-just-the-beginning?source=headline1

There is a battle being waged now in the world of economics. This battle is fierce. And no matter who wins, the impact will be felt far and wide. I dub this epoch struggle: "Godzilla vs. King Kong"

I'm not sure who will win, but I do have a favorite.     http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article8750.html

Q: Isn't this just a populist, diversionary tactic on Obama's part so that he can spend $900 billion more on his porky projects?

A: Yes. And you of all people should envy his strategic gifts, which were finely honed right beside you at Harvard. Besides, if things get keep getting worse, you will beg Obama for another pay cut, just to hold the line on rising sales of guillotines.

http://www.foxbusiness.com/story/markets/industries/government/al-lewis-wake-ceos----new-world-pay-limits/

Ten years ago, a quote from Marx would have one deemed a socialist, and dismissed from polite debate. Today, such a quote can (and did, along with Charlie's photo) appear in a feature in the Sydney Morning Herald—and not a few people would have been nodding their heads at how Marx got it right on bankers.

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2009/02/steve-keen-roving-cavaliers-of-credit.html

Barron's interviews Ray Dalio, chief investment officer of Bridgewater Associates. Listen up: Bridgewater's funds have produced long-term annual returns, net of fees, averaging 15%. In the turmoil of 2008, its Pure Alpha I fund earned 8.7%, while Pure Alpha II delivered 9.4%. This guy knows his stuff.

There's too much in this interview to do it justice with a summary. For those with Barron's subscriptions, I strongly recommend you read the whole thing. For those who can't, here are some of Dalio's key thoughts:...    http://seekingalpha.com/article/119250-ray-dalio-a-long-and-painful-depression-barron-s-interview

Two of Switzerland's largest banks, UBS and Credit Suisse, are set to announce combined losses for 2008 of 29 billion Swiss francs later this week, the Sonntag newspaper reported Sunday.

According to the report, UBS will announce an annual loss of 21 billion Swiss francs (14 billion euros, 18 billion dollars) on Tuesday, the largest in Swiss history and reflecting the fact the company was one of the banks hardest hit by the US subprime loan crisis.

http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=CNG.2e4e127b6b7d600dc3fa28f04b21cb9d.1b1&show_article=1

Why There Won't Be a Revolution

Americans might get angry sometimes, but we don't hate the rich. We prefer to laugh at them.

http://www.newsweek.com/id/183718/output/print

Few 21st-century Americans have any real experience with economic populism. That appears to be changing fast. In the 1930s, the demonization of the upper class did not really begin until almost two years after the stock-market crash. We are now six months into our own economic crisis, and signs of populist resentment are already visible: in the perverse fascination with Bernard Madoff's remarkable fraud, the popular outrage at the tax problems of public officials, the growing contempt for the many overseers of the credit markets, the ruined investments of millions of ordinary people, the growing army of the unemployed (still far below the 15% to 25% unemployment of the 1930s, but 7.6% in January and growing fast), the likelihood of a recession that could last not just for months, but for years. These are the preconditions of populist revolts. Mr. Obama's chastisements of bankers and CEOs have been relatively mild compared to the routine denunciations of "economic royalists" in the 1930s. But the longer the crisis goes on and the deeper it grows, the more Huey Long-like challenges to those in power will arise, and the more pressure there will be for national leaders to launch populist battles of their own.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123396621006159013.html?mod=googlenews_wsj

Morgan Stanley is also advising the Fed on the AIG rescue.

In addition to hiring consultants, the Fed and the Treasury have retained Wall Street firms to help manage more than $2 trillion in bailout and emergency-loan programs.    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=a2T0fD4Ri17E&refer=home