Sunday, April 13, 2008

USD gaps up, EUR/USD down 200 pips on G7 fears

Saxo Bank - 7:27 PM

FX: Over the weekend, the G7 meeting resulted in a statement, which included the following sentence: "sharp fluctuations in major currencies' could have implications for economic and financial stability." This is a tightening of the laissez faire stance from the prior G7 meeting (Feb, Tokyo), but it is still not really convincing.

7:27 PM

FX: US Secretary of the Treasury, Paulson, has been stating afterwards that he "reiterated in very strong terms our commitment to a strong dollar". With the Fed cutting aggressively and the last reading on the monthly budget statement at nose-bleed low levels, it is hard to see that he and the rest of the administration are backing these words by actions.

7:28 PM

FX: The only reason for the USD to go higher is that the negative expectations for US data could be too far ahead of the real data releases. We have seen signs of such a situation lately, and strong forces are working to introduce a larger role for goverment and semi-goverment institutions in the market place to alleviate the volatility and the credit crunch.

7:28 PM

FX: G7 might be an obvious candidate for this and the threat of concerted intervention might keep the USD supported for a couple of days.

8:20 PM

FX: G7 announced worries for the too fast depreciating USD and its contributuion to global inflation. This leading to lower consumer spending and complicating policy decisions for centraL bankers who might other wise lower interest rate further to avert continuing economic downturn. The tougher talks on fx

8:20 PM

FX: (continued) markets over the weekend led to speculations on whether world leaders were planing direct intervention in the currency markets to prevents further USD decline. EURUSD opened 1.5 figures lower on back of these developments. Bids at 1.5630 and 1.5600. Offers at 1.5715 and 1.5745.


 

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