Wednesday, December 28, 2011

Euro drops to near 10 year low

Dec. 28 (Bloomberg) -- The euro dropped against the yen to almost the lowest level since 2001 as the European Central Bank’s balance sheet soared to a record after it lent regional banks more money last week to keep credit flowing.
The 17-nation currency fell against the dollar to the lowest level since January as concern increased that the region’s sovereign-debt crisis will curb growth, even as rates fell at an Italian bill sale. The dollar gained as stocks dropped, boosting demand for haven assets. The yen gained on a safety bid after a U.S. Treasury report criticized Japan for intervening in the currency market and as economic reports signaled slowing economic growth.

S&P 500 Snaps 5-Day Rally Amid Europe Concern

U.S. stocks declined, halting a five- day advance in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index, as the European Central Bank’s balance sheet increased to a record after a surge of bank lending to stem the region’s debt crisis.
All 10 groups in the S&P 500 fell as measures of commodity, financial and industrial shares slid at least 1.4 percent. Alcoa (AA) Inc. andCaterpillar Inc. (CAT) dropped more than 1.9 percent. Bank of America Corp. (BAC) sank 2.9 percent, extending yesterday’s slump.
The S&P 500 lost 1.1 percent to 1,252.03 at 11:33 a.m. New York time, after rallying 5 percent over the previous five days. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 120.41 points, or 1 percent, to 12,170.94. About 1.5 billion shares changed hands on U.S. exchanges, or 35 percent below the same time a week ago.

Monday, December 19, 2011

Repainting Indicator

Repainting indicators are one of the most common problems facing would-be EA designers. Sometimes it seems like an indicator really has its thumb on the market. It perfectly predicts when the market will go up or down. Making an EA run off of the indicator is a no-brainer.

If this sounds familiar, then you need to consider whether or not the indicator repaints.

What is a repainting indicator?

First consider a baseball analogy. Last week, the St. Louis Cardinals beat the Texas Rangers to win the World Series. A repainting indicator is like asking you today, "Would you bet on the Cardinals or Rangers?," then pretending like you placed your bet 3 weeks ago and not today. You had no way of knowing for certain who would actually win.

How normal indicators work

If that sounds stupid, that's because it is. Repainting indicators use knowledge of the "historical future" to "predict" which way the market was going to go. Indicators typically start with old bars on the left side of the chart, then walk forward to the right side until they obtain enough information to make a decision. Say, for example, that you want to create the RSI indicator on a daily chart and you want to start on October 25. You start at October 25, and make decisions based on information from Oct. 24, 23, etc., until you've collected 14 bars worth of data or however long you set the period. You then say definitively that the RSI on October 25 is X.

Now you move on to October 26. You look back at October 25, 24, and so on, until you get the final RSI value for October 26. All of the examples move forward into the future, then look back into the past to get the current value.

A hypothetical repainting indicator

Now let's make a hypothetical RSI indicator that repaints. Say our first date under consideration is October 25. We might start by looking into the past, which is what we did last time. But for the sake of making the example obvious, let's look the other way - into the future.

We gather data from October 26, 27, and so on. Now, having learned the future, we jump back to October 25 and pretend that we knew the future all along. The RSI looks amazing.

A Real Example

I receive copies of the 3_Level_ZZ_Semafor every once in a while and it tends to cause problems. It's based on the same idea as the zig zag indicator, which helps it to pick perfect tops and bottoms. Trend traders love looking at it. The information seems like it would be so valuable.

Making an EA off of it, however, presents numerous problems. The trades that the Expert Advisor makes do not match up with what the indicator looks like a few hours later. What actually happens is that the indicator changes its mind. It doesn't leave behind any evidence of its incorrect prediction. The novice EA designer naturally concludes that the programming is all wrong and that we need to fix it.

The first image below shows the value of the semafor on a EURSUD M5 chart at 00:00 on October 10, 2011. You'll notice that a purple dot with the number 2 appears on that bar. The market is moving strongly upwards. The indicator at this point predicts that the move is likely overextended.

The 3_Level_ZZ_Semafor before repainting

If we jump 2 bars into the future at 00:10, now magically a number 3 dot appears. What's worse is that the number 2 dot disappears entirely from the 00:00 bar! The indicator sees that the price jumped up, so it goes back in time and deletes the evidence of its incorrect prediction. If you weren't watching the indicator or taking screenshots, it is as though the number 2 dot was never there.

The 3_Level_ZZ_Semafor after repainting

Test your indicator and look for repainting

No automated process exists to determine whether or not your indicator repaints. It's something that you have to do by staring at the chart during a backtest to see if the values change or not.

I like to do this by selecting an Expert Advisor without caring too much about which one I pick. If you don't have any installed, you can grab one from the free Expert Advisor page for the sake of testing.

You'll need to select settings to get the backtester to run. The options that you choose are not important, so long as you have selected something. I highlighted the required items in red below. I personally prefer to use M5 EURUSD charts. M5 is good because the backtester moves over the data quickly on full speed without going so fast that I cannot control the process. It strikes a nice balance between speed and following what's actually happening. I like EURUSD simply because I always have EURUSD data loaded. I don't have to worry about the tester not working, whereas that would likely be an issue if I selected an exotic currency like TRY/ZAR.

MetaTrader Backtester Settings

When the visual backtest chart pops up, the first thing to do is to load your indicator onto the chart. As the test progresses, watch how the indicator behaves. Some repainting indicators like the Semafor are completely obvious. They repaint on most bars, so it's easy to tell that it is not consistent. You can safely assume that it repaints.

Other indicators are more tricky. They only plot once every 50 bars and sometimes even less frequently. You have to watch closely to make sure that where plots appear, that they don't subsequently dance onto another bar. I like to use the same technique in the first screenshot that I posted with a vertical red line. Whenever the indicator plots something on the chart, mark it with a vertical line. Continue doing so for about a day's worth of data on the M5 chart. Stop the test, then scroll back through the chart. If 100% of the plotted values match the vertical lines, then your indicator does not repaint.

Wednesday, December 14, 2011

Time based orders in MetaTrader 4

The short summary is that time based orders in MT4 are possible. You just need to keep in mind some of the technical limitations. MetaTrader 4 EAs work based off of incoming ticks. Whenever the bid/ask changes by a micro pip or more, that event triggers the EA to do something.

When the markets hum along at a rapid pace, this effect is not noticeable. When the quote flow slows down, however, it can cause the EA to sleep entirely through your trading window.

Many news traders want to bracket buy and sell stops around the price at 08:29 on NFP Friday. Everyone knows that a major news event is about to release. Trading slows down, as does the flow of quotes. The pending orders may not set in time if an incoming tick does not arrive in the 60 seconds between 08:29 and 08:30. This seems unlikely to many novice traders, but it happens frequently enough that we inevitably receive these types of questions whenever we program a time-based order placement EA.

The workaround typically satisfies most traders. EAs place an order at the first available tick within a certain time window. Using NFP as the example, the EA might seek to place bracket orders around the first tick between 08:29-08:32. The chances of making it 2 minutes past 08:30 without a single tick are low. And given that you are taking the first tick, the orders will succesfully bracket around the price the vast majority of the time. It is important to keep in mind how the backend works for those one-off events where the orders do not function as desired.

MetaTrader 5 addresses MT4′s time weakness by offering event driven programming. It is possible to rewrite MQL4 EAs into MQL5 and to demand an action at a precise moment in time. The MQL5 timer actively watches the clock. Regardless of what the markets do, the EA can know to wake up and do whatever action is needed. This is one of the few scenarios where converting from MQL4 into MQL5 comes with obvious advantages.

Wednesday, December 7, 2011

Automated Choice of Brokerage Company for an Efficient Operation of Expert Advisors


Very often we face situations when an Expert Advisor successfully operates with one brokerage company and is not profitable or even lossmaking on the other one. The reasons may be different. Different brokerage companies have different settings:
  • Quotes. They slightly differ because of two factors - different data feeds and different filtration that smooths quotes. For some Expert Advisors this may be relevant. Situations may occur when an EA trades often with one brokerage company and rarely on another one.
  • Slippage. It may differ much in different brokerage companies. This also may lead to worse characteristics of an EA because of lower expected profit. 
  • Requotes. In some brokerage companies they are oftener than in others. In this case an EA will miss successful entering points because of large number of requotes.

Color Changing Indicators in MetaTrader

Many custom indicators in MetaTrader use lines that change colors to indicate a change in trend or market condition. Those types of indicators are among the more common requests that we get for programming Expert Advisors. Unfortunately, these indicators often present problems. What you see on the chart is not necessarily what the indicator says.

Take a look at the image below or click the link to view it in full size. You'll notice that I included the data window for the indicator, which is SuperTrend. As we walk from left to right, the data window does not suddenly shift from Trend Up to Trend Down. Instead, it shifts with an in between period where the trend is both up and down.

MT4 Color Changing Indicator

While the visual effect is immediately obvious, the numbers do not clearly indicate the indicator's condition. In fact, it frequently happens where the indicator entirely misrepresents its true calculation. If the last bar was only green and the indicator says that the current bar is red-green, then we can safely assume that the indicator is switching from green to red.

When the indicator says it's red-green and the past bar was red-green, it gets more tricky. We are forced to keep looking back through time until a "clean" red or green value appears. This enables us to capture the indicator's real value.

It does not, however, make for a happy trader. Consider the case where the indicator plots red-green, red, red-green, red. Because of the way MetaTrader draws lines from point to point, the indicator actually appears as a solid red line - a long, beautiful sell signal, right?

In fact, its true calculated values are red, green, red, green. This glitch can make for some ugly surprises. This is especially so when traders expect to ride a down trend and the line appears as solid red, but the indicator (and thus EA) keeps flip flopping on the trade direction. You have to keep this in mind when building EAs around custom indicators.

Tuesday, December 6, 2011

Copyright Issues When Programming Expert Advisors

People frequently discover indicators on forums, trading groups, etc. Although most are bad, occasionally an indicator looks promising enough to use if for programming an expert advisor. Are you allowed to use the indicator that you found in an Expert Advisor?

The crux of the matter is what you intend to do with it. Intellectual property (IP) law has a concept called public domain. If you create an indicator and then share it on a public web site, then the file is presumably free for all to use. Essentially, you give away the copyright when you share it for all to see. The only caveat would be if the file or hosting page places an explicit restriction on how the file may or may not be used.

Personal use of an Expert Advisor does not pose a problem. This includes indicators that you purchased. The only legal reason that prevents you from using a commercial indicator in a personal EA is if the purchasing agreement for the indicator forbids creating derivative products, such as using the indicator to build a new EA.

Writing a commercial EA with a public domain custom indicator also meets the hurdle. You cannot take someone else's work and pass it off as your own; you must substantially alter or improve it before the work becomes yours. Turning an indicator into an automated strategy qualifies as a substantial improvement.

The thorniest issue pops up when you want to use a commercial indicator to create a commercial EA without the permission of the indicator's owner. Most people, myself included, would call this theft. The only way that you can do this legally and ethically is to secure an agreement from the indicator's copyright owner.

I am a programmer. If you're deeply concerned about this issue and want to ensure this information truly reflects US law, then I strongly suggest that you speak with an intellectual property attorney. The information above is for general information purposes and should not be construed as legal advice.

Here's a quick summary:

    Create a private EA from a public domain custom indicator - Almost always ok, unless the indicator owner forbids it

    Create a private EA from a commercial custom indicator - generally OK, unless your purchasing agreement forbids it

    Create a commercial EA from a public domain custom indicator - generally OK, unless the indicator's creator forbids it

    Create a commercial EA from a commercial indicator - never OK, unless you strike an agreement with the copyright owner

Thursday, December 1, 2011

Central Banks coordinated move - lower USD Swap lines by 50 bp

TOKYO: Asian shares extended gains on Thursday after the world's six major central banks moved to tame a liquidity crunch for European banks by providing cheaper dollar funding. 

MSCI's broadest index of Asia Pacific shares outside Japan jumped 1.3 percent, after U.S. stocks rallied 4 percent and European equities rose 2 percent on Wednesday. Japan's Nikkei opened up 1.7 percent on Thursday. 

The U.S. Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank and the central banks of Canada, Britain, Japan and Switzerland said on Wednesday they would lower the cost of existing dollar swap lines by 50 basis points from Dec. 5, and arrange bilateral swaps to provide liquidity for other currencies. 

A move by China on Wednesday to cut the percentage of cash banks must keep as reserves also boosted sentiment. 

The central banks' move aims to thaw severe funding strains for European banks as lenders had been extremely reluctant due to concerns over the eurozone's ability to quickly resolve its debt crisis, and could warm investor stance towards risk. 

Monday, November 28, 2011

MF Global foreign branches to return funds

MF Global customers abroad may see their frozen funds at least partially returned in the near future, according to several reports this weekend. In the UK, clients subject to the asset freeze may submit claims in two weeks, while in Canada, a court has ordered MF Global’s trustee to begin making cash payments.
KPMG, the firm now responsible for MF Global’s UK branch, says that customers may submit claims beginning December 8. “This helps to create certainty around the number and size of claims with the intention of allowing a return of a proportion of client funds before March 30 2012,” explained Richard Heis, joint special administrator of MF Global UK. The amount clients can expect to recover will depend in turn on what KPMG receives from banks, exchanges, and other institutions. Approved claims will be paid within 14 days. This announcement comes on the heels of a US court order granting American trustees access to company funds. While MF Global’s American operations have been plagued by reports of missing millions (if not billions), these shortfalls are not expected to affect clients in the UK.

Sunday, November 27, 2011

Europeans prepare for Euro breakup, riots


Banks brace for breakup of euro...


Prepare for riots in euro collapse, Foreign Office warns

British embassies in the eurozone have been told to draw up plans to help British expats through the collapse of the single currency, amid new fears for Italy and Spain.

Saturday, November 26, 2011

EES Hardware Development Survey

EES is developing a trading hardware appliance for traders and would like your feedback:

Understanding RAM Timings

Memory timings (or RAM timings) refer collectively to a set of four numerical parameters called CLtRCDtRP, and tRAS, commonly represented as a series of four numbers separated with dashes, in that respective order (e.g. 5-5-5-15). However, it is not unusual for tRAS to be omitted, or for a fifth value, the Command rate, to be added on. It also remains a common practice to advertise only CL. These parameters define, in clock cycles, the various forms of latency (responsiveness to random requests) that affect fundamental performance metrics of random access memory. Lower numbers indicate fewer clock cycles are needed, implying faster performance.

Friday, November 25, 2011

Moody's cuts Hungary to junk HUF down 1.8%

(Reuters) - Credit rating agency Moody's cut Hungary's debt to "junk" grade late on Thursday, dealing a blow to Prime Minister Viktor Orban's unorthodox economic policies and prompting his government to denounce the move as a "financial attack".
Moody's lowered Hungary's sovereign rating by one notch to Ba1, just below investment-grade, with a negative outlook, only hours after rival Standard & Poor's held fire on a flagged downgrade after Budapest said it would seek international aid.

Wednesday, November 23, 2011

Germany, Euro on death watch

Investors began to fear the worst for the euro after unusually weak demand at an auction for bonds from Germany, the region’s largest economy. One analyst went so far as to put the currency on a “death watch.”
Euro bills

Germany sold just 60 percent of the 6 billion euros in 10-year bunds it brought to auction, about the weakest demand seen for the country’s debt in the currency’s 16-year history, economists said. The rejection of debt from Europe’s safe harbor marks a new stage for the crisis.
“No bunds wanted equals no Euros wanted equals the Euro death watch,” wrote Mark Steele, an analyst with BMO Capital Markets. “We have seen many poor German auctions. This is not the issue. The issue is how badly the euro is doing after the weak auction.”

"Disastrous" bond sale shakes confidence in Germany

(Reuters) - A "disastrous" German bond sale on Wednesday sparked fears that Europe's debt crisis was even starting to threaten Berlin, with the leaders of the euro zone's two biggest economies still firmly at odds over a longer-term structural solution.

Monday, November 21, 2011

Soil is the hot commodity

(Reuters) - It took just 31 minutes for Donald Ellingson's family to end an agrarian tradition that had survived more than a half-century, by auctioning off 153 acres of rich Iowa farmland.
Five years after their father's death, Ellingson's three children had grown weary of the demands of running a farm. Their tenant farmer had retired, and finding a new one was tough. The youngest of them was 60 -- too old, they agreed, to return to a life of risky finances and long work days.

Sunday, November 20, 2011

EES Partner - ADVFN Free financial news & data services


BRITAIN will soon be forced to scrap the pound and join the euro, one of Germany’s most senior figures said yesterday.
In a chilling threat to UK sovereignty, German finance minister Wolfgang Schauble predicted that all Europe would one day use the single currency. “It will happen perhaps faster than some in the British Isles currently believe,” he said. 

Tuesday, November 15, 2011

Stamford and the World's Largest Trading Floor

Washington Boulevard at Interstate 95 is Connecticut’s version of Wall Street at Broad.
This is where UBS, aka the Union Bank of Switzerland, sits on one side of the street, a short walk from the Stamford train station into Manhattan. On the other side is RBS, aka the Royal Bank of Scotland.
The trading capital of Connecticut is now all up in arms, it seems, because UBS is talking about moving out.
UBS' 103,000-square-foot trading floor in Stamford.
Denizens are warning that the city will “become a ghost town,” if the Swiss bank moves its operations – including its 103,000-square-foot trading floor – into New York City.

Monday, November 14, 2011

Merkel’s CDU Votes to Allow Exits From Euro Area

German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union party voted to offer euro states a“voluntary” means of leaving the currency area.

CDU delegates meeting in the eastern German city of Leipzig for their annual party congress today backed a motion on the euro that included a clause permitting euro exits without exclusion from the European Union. They rejected an amendment that would have sought to change voting at the European Central Bank so that it is weighted according to economic size.

Friday, November 4, 2011

CIA following tweets

McLEAN, Va. (AP) — In an anonymous industrial park in Virginia, in an unassuming brick building, the CIA is following tweets — up to 5 million a day.
At the agency's Open Source Center, a team known affectionately as the "vengeful librarians" also pores over Facebook, newspapers, TV news channels, local radio stations, Internet chat rooms — anything overseas that anyone can access and contribute to openly.

Wednesday, November 2, 2011

FBI interested in regulatory probe of MF Global

(Reuters) - The Federal Bureau of Investigation is interested in the investigation of MF Global Holdings Ltd, a person briefed on the matter said on Tuesday.
The person declined to give details. Regulators said on Monday that the company reported possible "deficiencies" in customer futures segregated accounts.
MF Global, which filed for bankruptcy protection on Monday, is the biggest U.S. casualty of Europe's debt crisis, and the seventh-largest bankruptcy by assets in U.S. history.

Monday, October 31, 2011

MF Global near collapse - IB most likely suitor

MF Global Holdings Ltd., the futures broker run by Jon Corzine, was suspended from conducting new business with the New York Federal Reserve today after posting a record loss.
The firm’s board met through the weekend in New York to consider options including a sale to avert failure, according to a person with direct knowledge of the situation. It was stopped from doing new business with the New York Fed until it shows it’s able to fulfill its responsibilities as a primary dealer, according to a statement on the regulator’s website. Trading in MF Global’s stock was also halted.
Pressure is mounting on Corzine, the former governor of New Jersey and U.S. senator, after MF Global declined 67 percent last week and its bonds started trading at distressed levels amid its disclosures of bets on European sovereign-debt. MF Global was in discussions with five potential buyers for all or parts of the company, including banks, private-equity firms and brokers, said the person, who asked not to be identified because the talks are private.
“While the pieces are attractive, figuring out potential buyers is a lot harder,” Robert Rutschow, an analyst with CLSA Credit Agricole Securities in New York, said in an Oct. 28 note to clients. “In the current environment, banks can’t even go to the bathroom without permission from their regulator, let alone buy a brokerage firm that was looking to grow proprietary trading and expand risk-taking activities.”

Interactive Brokers

The most attractive part of the New York-based firm is its retail futures brokerage, which could fetch $500 million to $600 million, he said. MF Global hired Weil, Gotshal & Manges LLP for a London affiliate, a person said. The law firm currently represents Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., which in 2008 filed the biggest bankruptcy in U.S. history.
MF Global may file for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection as soon as today and sell assets to Interactive Brokers Group Inc., the Wall Street Journal reported on its website, citing a person familiar with the matter it did not identify. Interactive Brokers would likely make an initial bid of about $1 billion during a court-supervised auction after the company files for Chapter 11, the newspaper cited the person as saying.

Yen Falls Versus Dollar Amid Speculation Japan Intervened in Markets

The yen plunged against the dollar and euro amid speculation Japan intervened in markets to weaken its currency.
The yen sank 3.2 percent to 78.30 per dollar as of 10:34 a.m. in Tokyo. It lost 2.8 percent to 110.38 per euro.
Japanese Finance Minister Jun Azumi said earlier today he’s ready to take “determined” steps in the currency market if needed after the yen rose to a fresh post-World War II high against the dollar.
He told reporters in Tokyo today that speculative activity is strong in the currency market, adding that the yen’s moves don’t reflect Japan’s economic fundamentals.

Friday, October 28, 2011

Hedge funds a super gamble

Philip Falcone grew up in the mining town of Chisholm, Minnesota, population 4976. The youngest of nine children who lived in a three-bedroom house, Falcone excelled at ice hockey and played for Harvard.

After college, a burgeoning career as a professional hockey player was cut short by injury and he then cut his teeth in the markets as a trader at Barclays Capital.

Now, Falcone is best-known as a "billionaire New York hedge fund manager". Geared to the gills like most hedge funds, his Harbinger Capital Partners made a poultice in the bull market; in Australia, too. Falcone's most notable play being a 16 per cent stake in Andrew Forrest's Fortescue Metals which reaped him hundreds of millions in profit when he sold down two years ago.

Read more:

Hedge Funds

Wednesday, October 19, 2011

Greeks move €228billion into Swiss banks

Greece in flames over cuts (while fat-cats secretly shift €228billion into Swiss banks accounts)

  • Wealthy are moving euros through foreign subsidiaries in Cyprus
  • 50,000 people descend on Athens as 48-hour general strike begins
  • Hundreds of flights and ferries cancelled as workers walk out
  • Greek parliament will vote on fresh austerity measures tomorrow

Greek protesters clashed with police in central Athens after Prime Minister George Papandreou vowed to push through a further round of austerity and appealed to Europe to cut Greece’s debt load at an Oct. 23 summit.

Thursday, October 13, 2011

Multiple Time Frames or Pairs in an Expert Advisor

Many strategies incorporate multi-timeframe analysis in their decision making process. Consider the example of a moving average cross strategy. The most basic version says to buy when a fast moving average crosses above a slow moving average. Multi-timeframe analysis involves jumping to a chart of a longer period to consider the setup there, as well.

The 20 period SMA (fast) crosses above the 50 period SMA (slow) on the M15 chart.
Now jump to the H1 chart. Is the fast SMA greater than the slow SMA on that chart, too? If so, then the trade is allowed. If not, the EA skips the signal and waits for another one.

The technique has the potential to work if your strategy offers some type of statistical advantage. Moving averages sometimes work when applied using a trader's discretion of general market volatility. If you leave an MA cross strategy on a chart unattended, however, my expectation is that you would have no better chance than trading at random. Adding another layer of analysis will not change the fact that the basic premise offers no advantage.

MetaTrader does not restrict Expert Advisors to reading information from the applied chart. When you program an EA to trade on EURGBP M5 chart, you may also read price information from the EURGBP M1, EURGBP H1 or any other chart available. You can even read information on multiple pairs.

Some traders like to watch correlated currency pairs. EUR/USD and USD/CHF typically share a -90% correlation. When EURUSD goes up, USDCHF typically goes down. Exceptions do occur, and those traders tend to look for exceptions on the expectation of them ironing themselves out. Expert Advisors make this fairly simple to handle. You just program the question, "What's the last closed price of EUR/USD M5 and USD/CHF M5?" The code gives you the answer, then the EA can make decisions with it.

EES Hybrid Trading Model (video)

Wednesday, October 12, 2011

Violence necessary to achieve protesters goals: journalist

Occupy L.A. Speaker: Violence will be Necessary to Achieve Our Goals

Citizen journalist Ringo captured this speaker at the Occupy Los Angeles camp a few days ago letting the cat out of the bag: After dismissing nonviolence as a dead end, he admits that for the Occupiers to achieve their goals, violence and bloodshed will be necessary:

Tuesday, October 11, 2011

How to Flush your Windows DNS Cache

Click start and run, type command.
Then type: ipconfig /flushdns

Computer Deal of the Day

Thursday, October 6, 2011

Wall St. Protests continue

Senate to Vote on China Currency Manipulation Bill

While China has purposely devalued it’s currency, hurting the value of the U.S. dollar over the last decade, neither the Obama or G.W. Bush administrations have actually taken the step to formally designate China as a currency manipulator in any annual reports in the past decade. Failure to designate China as a currency manipulator prevents the U. S. government from being able to apply tariffs on Chinese imports or start investigations into currency manipulation. Senate Democrats will now introduce a bill on Monday that will try to push the issue of China’s currency manipulation, and supposedly open the door for U.S. companies to seek tariffs against Chinese imports if they are found to be artificially keeping their products cheap through keeping it’s currency devalued. Considering our current recession, provoking a trade war with China is a very dangerous thing according to many political insiders, including Jon Huntsman, the former ambassador to China and current presidential candidate who told Fox news, " You take action against China, you can expect them to rebut that action with commensurate tariffs," he said. "During a recession, you don’t want a trade war."

China expressed strong objections on Tuesday to a bill in the United States Senate that would threaten higher tariffs on some Chinese goods in response to what the bill’s sponsors call China’s policy of keeping its currency artificially depressed to give its exports a price advantage.

Wednesday, September 28, 2011

BIS report: High Frequency Trading in the FX market

High-frequency trading (HFT) has increased its presence in the foreign exchange (FX) market in recent years. A discussion is emerging about its benefits and risks, though the assessment is often hampered by difficulties in identifying and quantifying HFT as distinct from other forms of automated trading. It is crucial to have a clearer understanding of what HFT is (and is not) and what it does (and does not do) before assessing its implications from a policymaker's point of view.

This report examines the facts about HFT in FX, including its definition, effect on other market participants, behaviour in normal and stressed times, and key differences with HFT in equities. It also identifies issues pertaining to market functioning, systemic risks, and market integrity and competition that may warrant further investigation. This report was prepared by a study group chaired by Guy Debelle, Assistant Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia.

JEL classification: F31, G14, G15

BIS Report HFT Trading Systems