Tuesday, October 7, 2008

Will the Bretton Woods 2 (BW2) Regime Collapse Like the Original

The principal technique employed in the US is to get people so busy that they don't have time to think about anything, and it is important to remember that with one person, one vote, this doesn't have to be everyone, just the majority.    http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article6654.html

For these reasons it is thought wise to have some cash stashed away and a supply of tradable gold and silver in a safe place or safe places.

Soon we will consider the likely impact of all this on gold and silver prices, both on the paper prices and on the prices for real physical gold and silver that you can hold in your hand, and consider the merits of gold and silver versus gold and silver stocks. Another subject we will turn our attention to is measures to improve security in conditions of anarchy or near anarchy.

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/10/roubini-fed-fiddles-while-rome-burns.html

This is indeed a cardiac arrest for the shadow and non-shadow banking system and for the system of financing of the corporate sector. The shutdown of financing for the corporate system is particularly scary: solvent but illiquid corporations that cannot roll over their maturing debt may now face massive defaults due to this illiquidity. And if the financing of the corporate sectors shuts down and remains shut down the risk of an economic collapse similar to the Great Depression becomes highly likely....

http://www.peakoil.com/survey219-results.html

http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2008/10/06/the-damage-spreads/

Central banks meanwhile keep trumping themselves over who will create more money without a correspondent value. But the pinstriped inflationistas have only a single strong card left in their hands. It is the card of public ignorance and the blessing that nobody can remember the last period of hyper-inflation.....    http://seekingalpha.com/article/98732-monetary-madness-global-margin-call-underway

* The Federal Reserve is bankrupt. The U.S. Treasury Department quietly rescued — actually, took over — the world's largest Central Bank on September 17.

* The idea that Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke could fly his helicopter was a fraud; the Fed simply didn't have any helicopter fuel.

* The U.S. Treasury Department, on the other hand, has copious amounts of helicopter fuel in the form of undiscounted government debt, and this fuel has now been made available to Mr. Bernanke. The more fuel the Treasury provides, the closer the U.S. dollar will get to its death.

* Just released Fed data confirms that initial test flights of Ben's helicopter have been spectacularly successful. Up to $150 billion has been loaded on the helicopter so far and may already be fluttering down into the Monetary Base as I write this. The inflation of "high power" money by more than 15% in the course of 2 weeks (an annual rate of 300% or more) is unprecedented.

* Inflation of the Monetary Base is leveraged by fractional reserve lending. Should the banks actually start to lend again, we could very well see hyperinflation in the U.S. over the next 18 months.      * The Federal Reserve is bankrupt. The U.S. Treasury Department quietly rescued — actually, took over — the world's largest Central Bank on September 17.

* The idea that Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke could fly his helicopter was a fraud; the Fed simply didn't have any helicopter fuel.

* The U.S. Treasury Department, on the other hand, has copious amounts of helicopter fuel in the form of undiscounted government debt, and this fuel has now been made available to Mr. Bernanke. The more fuel the Treasury provides, the closer the U.S. dollar will get to its death.

* Just released Fed data confirms that initial test flights of Ben's helicopter have been spectacularly successful. Up to $150 billion has been loaded on the helicopter so far and may already be fluttering down into the Monetary Base as I write this. The inflation of "high power" money by more than 15% in the course of 2 weeks (an annual rate of 300% or more) is unprecedented.

* Inflation of the Monetary Base is leveraged by fractional reserve lending. Should the banks actually start to lend again, we could very well see hyperinflation in the U.S. over the next 18 months. http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1223400153.php

The increase in the size of the Term Auction Facility, from $150 billion a month ($75 billion per two 28 day auction) as of its last auction to $900 billion today (with an interim plan to go to $450 billion that was blown past in this announcement) is an admission that the banking system is not functioning. The size of the TAF, a single facility, now exceeds that of the Fed's entire recent balance sheet size.    http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/10/term-auction-facility-increased-to-900.html

Many of us in the US are focused on our own woes. But this is a global credit crisis. In today's Outside the Box, we take a look at the currency markets, which are in an historic upheaval and also look at what is going on in Europe. I suspect that Europe is in for a period of much distress, as the world begins to deleverage That is why one government after another will back the deposits of banks within their countries, for otherwise capital will flee to countries like Ireland and Germany which ARE guaranteeing the deposits for all banks in their borders. . Many European banks are leveraged 50 to 1 (not a misprint). I suspect that more government will do like Belgium and the Netherlands and inject capital directly into their local banks deemed too big to fail.    http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article6659.html

Thus to begin, we say here this morning, mincing no words whatsoever, we are more frightened now for the future of the global capital markets than we have been at any time in our thirty+ years of watching, commenting upon and taking part in them. We are fearful... and we mean this fully... that we have passed the tipping point; that things are now spinning out of control; that forces have been unleashed that cannot be stopped without some truly massive, truly strong-handed, governmental action including the closure of markets and limits upon bank withdrawals, et al. These are troubling times, and our fear is palpable and growing. Worse, these concerns are giving rise to the likelihood that the Left shall be in ascension, and that manifestly left-of-centre, interventionist government lies ahead here in the US and in Europe. Higher, rather than lower taxes will be the end result. Greater... indeed very much greater... intervention in the capital markets lies ahead. Trade and act accordingly.

"If money isn't loosened up," warned the president during negotiations on the bill, "this sucker could go down." (DRUNK) One wonders how much our prospects have improved now that the money has been loosened up, i.e., whether or not "this sucker" might go down anyway.    http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article6652.html

http://www.financialarmageddon.com/     

In addition, household net worth, which greases spending, fell $6 trillion over the last year, with $1 trillion of that in just the last four weeks, said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Economy.com.

For instance, a report last year from consulting firm Greenwich Associates found that hedge funds were responsible for nearly 30% of all fixed-income trading in the U.S. That market, and others, could take a hit as hedge funds shrink, said Mr. Nichter.

Will the Bretton Woods 2 (BW2) Regime Collapse Like the Original

Bretton Woods Regime Did? The Coming End Game of BW2

by Nouriel Roubini,

July 6, 2008    http://www.rgemonitor.com/redir.php?sid=1&cid=271999&tgid=0

"Continuity of Government" (COG) Provisions activated in 2001 http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=10473

"I still don't believe the dollar can maintain this strength going forward, as the funding requirements on the deficit continues to be the Sword of Damocles hanging over the dollar. But for now… I have to go to the corner and sit…"    http://www.dailyreckoning.com/Writers/Butler/Articles/100608.html

When the dollar can rally in the face of news like it received on Friday, even me, the biggest fundamental trader you've ever seen, can see the writing on the wall… This dollar rally goes against everything I've ever known or studied regarding fundamentals. I still don't believe the dollar can maintain this strength going forward, as the funding requirements on the deficit continues to be the Sword of Damocles hanging over the dollar. But for now… I have to go to the corner and sit, for I have been wrong about how the dollar would react to all of this.

Pimco's Bill Gross has out his latest missive, and if recent history is any evidence then it has a solid change of being causal, as opposed to being merely predictive. The key part is this:

A systemic delevering likely requires a systemic solution, which moves beyond cyclical interest rate cuts, liquidity provisions, or even the purchase of subprime mortgage-backed bonds. We believe that the Federal Reserve must now act as a clearing house, guaranteeing that institutional transactions clear (and investors receive) their Big Macs at the second window. They must also take another bold step: outright purchases of commercial paper. They should also cut interest rates to 1%, because we are experiencing asset deflation, and the threat of headline inflation is long past. [Emphase mine]

http://seekingalpha.com/article/98750-bill-gross-says-jump-will-the-fed-once-again-say-how-high