Friday, May 7, 2010

It's Not About Greece Anymore

http://www.roubini.com/euro-monitor/258851/it_s_not_about_greece_anymore The Greek "rescue" package announced last weekend is dramatic, unprecedented, and far from enough to stabilize the eurozone. 

The Greek government and the European Union (EU) leadership, prodded by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), are finally becoming realistic about the dire economic situation in Greece.  They have abandoned previous rounds of optimistic forecasts and have now admitted to a profoundly worse situation.  This new program calls for a total of 11% of GDP in terms of "fiscal adjustments" (i.e., reduction in the budget deficit; now meaning government spending cuts mostly) in 2010, 4.3% in 2011, and 2% in 2012 and 2013.  The total debt to GDP ratio peaks at 149% in 2012-13 before starting a gentle glide path back down to sanity.