Friday, July 8, 2011

Insight on Friday's EUR/USD move

More on the EUR/USD move higher, and despite all the wide ranging reasons behind why the currency pair has gone completely against its positive correlation with the equity indices, the over-riding factor is that a large Asian name was a big buyer of from the low 1.4200's. Having taken out stops through the Thursday lows, the familiar trading account emerged and bought up the pair in some pretty hefty amounts. Whatever the views on how and where the employment stats would impact, there is no disputing that the above is the key factor in this afternoon's (eventual) move. The Asian account holds a large 1.40/1.47 DNT structure, which is set to roll off inside the next 2 weeks, and is choosing to 'smooth' FX moves when we get anywhere near the outer limits of the range. For now, we see expiries at 1.4330, 1.4335 and 1.4340 keeping trade up at these levels. SM