Tuesday, May 6, 2014

EES: Euro near highs - backdrop of war, genocide

With EUR/USD at these levels, it may be a good time to take profits if long, and establish shorts here with stops above 1.40.  While the Euro should be feeling the pressure from impending World War 3, it still seems to be bid here going into an ECB meeting.  The USD seems to be selling off unusually strongly (certainly not based on what little negative data coming out), could be BRICs pulling money out?  

While the USD may be a net-negative of the situation developing in Ukraine, the Euro will be greatly impacted by any sanctions taken against the EU by Russia, most notably (but not totally) cuts to energy supply, or Russian import bans on EU manufactured cars (currently Russia purchasing roughly 40% of all cars manufactured in the EU).
Russia has made its first official comment following the latest escalations in Ukraine - and they are not peaceful-sounding - "We are dealing with the real genocide of both Russian and Ukrainian people,” said Russian State Duma Speaker Sergei Naryshkin, adding that Russia was shocked by the massacre in Odessa and mourns the victims together with their families. His words went further as he warned the perpetrators "will get what they deserve from their people." The words though, have now been followed up by actions... as RIA reports that Russia’s Black Sea Fleet "will get new submarines and next-generation surface ships", Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said Tuesday, voicing his concern at the increasing maritime activity of the US Navy.