Russia diversifies into Canadian dollars

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/22f1bd26-05db-11df-8c97-00144feabdc0.html?nclick_check=1

Russia diversifies into Canadian dollars

 

NFA Releases Forex Regulatory Guide

http://www.nfa.futures.org/NFA-compliance/publication-library/forex-regulatory-guide.pdf

Skype gets sued for expiring credits – get your unclaimed credit now

https://creditexpirationclassaction.com/
Plaintiffs Holly Barker and Brian Carness have filed lawsuits against defendants Skype Communications, S.a.r.l. ("Skype Communications"), Skype Technologies S.A., Skype, Inc. and eBay Inc., on its own behalf and as successor by merger to Skype Delaware Holdings, Inc. (collectively, the "Defendants") challenging the Skype Credit expiration policy. Plaintiffs allege that Skype User Accounts and Skype Credit constitute "gift certificates" that cannot expire or be subject to inactivity fees under various states' laws and that Defendants unlawfully applied the Skype Credit expiration policy against their Skype Credit balances after 180 days of inactivity in supposed violation of these various states' laws, including applicable "gift certificate," consumer protection and/or unfair and deceptive practices laws.

Defendants deny that they did anything wrong whatsoever, and contend that plaintiffs' claims are meritless. No court has decided which side is right, and both sides have agreed to resolve the cases and provide relief to the Settlement Class instead of litigation. There is a proposed settlement on behalf of a nationwide class of current and former United States resident purchasers of Skype Credit from Skype Communications, which, if approved, will provide that Skype Communications shall discontinue its Skype Credit expiration policy and implement a Reactivation Policy whereby Skype Credit will no longer expire after 180 days of inactivity, but rather be deemed "inactive" and subject to reactivation. In addition, Skype Communications, on behalf of itself and the other Defendants, has agreed to pay a Settlement Amount of $1,850,000 in full and complete settlement of the Released Claims, which shall include: (i) attorneys' fees and costs and named plaintiffs' incentive awards not to exceed $1,000 each, which collectively shall not exceed 25% of the Settlement Amount subject to Court approval; and (ii) availability, on a claims made basis, of an electronic voucher for $4.00 of Skype Credit per claimant from the Net Settlement Amount.

Links from the news January 15th

Arctic permafrost leaking methane at record levels, figures show Guardian (hat tip reader John D)

FCIC hearings must shatter the 'sociopathic nature' of Wall Street Rob Johnson, New Deal 2.0

Europe cannot afford a Greek default Simon Tilford Financial Times (hat tip Swedish Lex)

So what are banks for, anyway? Marshall Auerback, New Deal 2.0

It's Not About Interest Rates Yet Tim Duy

Google vs. CCP: All the possible WHYs Chinayouren (hat tip Michael T) and Google's fight: US-China lock horns Sydney Morning Herald (hat tip reader Crocodile Chuck)

UK banks face $10bn bill from US over bailouts Times Online (hat tip Swedish Lex)

Reply to Krasting's reply to Coberly's reply to Krasting Dale Coberly Angry Bear

Why are we letting Wall Street off so easy? Joseph Stiglitz, Mother Jones (hat tip reader John D). Why is Stiglitz having to say this in Mother Jones?

Proof of Martians 'to come this year' Scientific American.

Scanners aren't the solution Josh Fulton

Groups ask U.S. to regulate shipping of commercial bumblebees Washington Post (hat tip reader John D)

The Sky Is Falling Before Schedule. Again Dale Coberly, Angry Bear and I'm No Chicken Little Bruce Krasting. A running slugfest dialogue about Social Security. Bruce has the latest salvo; I'll link to any update from Angry Bear.

Rehn to propose economic 'high representative' EurActiv (hat tip reader Swedish Lex)

If you could write a song about the financial meltdown, what would you say? Tim Solanic

The future of Tim Geithner James Pethokoukis

Too Big Too Fail Tax Barry Ritholtz. Far from the first argument along these lines, but Barry, as always, is colorful

John Paulson's high-risk hubris Felix Salmon. High time SOMEONE is saying this! I just wish he had been even more pointed

The Carter Syndrome Walter Mead, Foreign Policy

Chinese banks have cemented their position as the most highly valued financial institutions

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/1c13f7f2-fe16-11de-9340-00144feab49a.html ...Chinese banks have cemented their position as the most highly valued financial institutions, taking four of the top five slots in a ranking of banks' share prices as a multiple of their book values.

Dollar Falls Most Since November on Surprise Payrolls Drop

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=adDyiqWUZXuQ&pos=3 Dollar Falls Most Since November on Surprise Payrolls Drop

Malaysia c bank warns against forex fraudsters

http://www.commodityonline.com/futures-trading/currency/Malaysia-c-bank-warns-against-forex-fraudsters-3660-2.html Malaysia's central bank, Bank Negara Malaysia has advised the public to not participate in any illegal investment or training programme on foreign currency trading offered by individuals or companies.

In a statement here on Monday, it said members of the public are usually enticed to attend such investment or training programmes with promises of quick and good returns.

World Financial Crisis Data Update

World Financial Crisis Links

 

China Becomes World's Bigger Gold Buyer

Goldman Sachs To Give Employees 23 Billion In Bonuses

Third Bailout For GMAC With Another $3.8b

Arabia Takes The New Silk Road To China

2010 - China Continues Its Unstoppable Economic Charge

UK Plans 'Greenwash New Deal' To Refloat Economy

Bankers Get Potential $4 Trillion

Age Of Austerity Here

Eurozone Credit Contraction Accelerates

'Carousel' Frauds Plague Euro Carbon Trading Markets

Rusal First Russian Company To List On HK Exchange

The Economic 'Experts' Who Stopped Making Sense

Banks Accused Of Profiteering In 2009

Taxpayers Hit Harder As Bank Shares Nosedive

20 Million In US Got Unemployment Checks In 2009

Europe's Looming Demise

G. Edward Griffin Discusses The Fed - Vid

$50 Billion - Goldman Sachs Revenues From Meltdown

Fed Sued To Reveal Gold Market Intervention

Laid-off executives struggle to find any kind of job

http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/employment/2009-12-29-laid-off-executives_N.htm HILLSBOROUGH, N.J. — As chief financial officer of a top New York advertising agency, Jeff Boose boasted annual pay exceeding $400,000, a spacious office and a lifestyle to match.

Boose and his family live in a sprawling house in this affluent suburb, belonged to a country club and took numerous lavish vacations each year.

But since he was laid off in late summer 2008, they've made a head-spinning pivot. It's no surprise the country club membership, the vacations and a Volvo sport-utility are history. More tellingly, the Booses question every dollar they spend, sometimes eating pancakes for dinner and borrowing from their parents to pay the bills.

EES Outlook 2009 Wealth protection and investment insurance in unstable times

EES Outlook 2009 Wealth protection and investment insurance in unstable times

Marc Faber Discusses U.S. Dollar, Stocks, Inflation: Video

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yVsCVBUB0mA

http://www.pbs.org/moyers/journal/12182009/watch.html

Asian Nations Plan May Launch of Currency Plan

Asean and its three regional partners will launch a $120 billion currency swap facility on March 24 that aims to ensure sufficient U.S. dollar liquidity in the event of a financial crisis.

The new pact is an upgrade of the existing Chiang Mai Initiative, which was launched in 2000 by the Association of Southeast Asian Nations plus Japan, China and South Korea. That came after regional countries experienced a severe capital flight in the wake of the 1997-1998 Asian financial crisis.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB126198744329506359.html?mod=googlenews_wsj

Saxo Bank Releases "Outrageous Predictions" for 2010

Saxo Bank Releases "Outrageous Predictions" for 2010

COPENHAGEN, December 17 /PRNewswire/ -- Saxo Bank has today released its annual "Outrageous Predictions", this year predicting devaluation of the CNY, the emergence of a third political party in the US, a massive fall in the price of sugar, a positive US trade balance for the first time since the 1975 oil crisis, and that the US Social Security Trust Fund will go bust.

The Copenhagen-headquartered online trading and investment specialist's ten predictions are an annual thought exercise to predict rare but high impact 'black swan' events that are beyond the realm of normal market expectations. The exercise aims to challenge market conceptions. Compiled as part of the bank's 2010 Outlook, the claims this year paint a picture of a more positive year ahead but with a few tremors along the way.

Saxo Bank's Outrageous Predictions for 2010:

1. Bunds yields will fall to 2.25%

Deflationary forces and excessive monetary policy will lower the yield on Bunds and other sovereign fixed income when the government fixed income traders refuse to buy into the "growth story" that is being told by the stock market. We believe that the German 10-Year Government Bond could be forced from 122.6 to 133.3 by the end of 2010 in a general flight to quality.

2. VIX will fall to 14

The markets are showing the same kind of complacency towards risk as they were in 2005-06. Although the VIX has been trading lower since October 2008, this could bring the VIX down from 22.32 to 14 as trading ranges narrow and implied options volatility declines.

3. CNY (China Yuan Renminbi) will be devalued by 5% vs. USD

The efforts of Chinese authorities to stem the credit growth and avoid bad loans, combined with the creation of several growth bubbles could ultimately reveal the Chinese investment-driven growth as being deficient. The massive, Chinese spare capacity and the economic backdrop could be a deciding factor in devaluing the CNY vs. the USD.

4. Gold will fall to $870 in 2010 but will rise to $1500 in 2014

A general strengthening of the USD could break the back of the recent speculative element in gold. Although we are long term bullish on gold (believing it will reach $1500 within five years), this trade seems to have become too easy and too widespread to pay out in the shorter term. A serious correction towards the $870 level could shake out the speculative community while keeping the metal in a longer term uptrend.

5. USDJPY to reach 110

Although the downturn in the USD is rooted in irresponsible fiscal and monetary policies, we believe that the USD could snap back at some point in 2010 because the USD carry trade has been too easy and too obvious for too long. At the same time, the JPY is not reflecting economic reality in Japan, which is struggling with a huge debt burden and ageing population.

6. Angry American public to form third party in the US

The anti-incumbent mood is approaching 1994 and 2006 levels as a result of bail-outs and general disapproval of both the big parties. A demand for real change among American voters could propel a third new party to become a deciding factor in the 2010 elections.

7. The US Social Security Trust Fund will go bust

This is not so much an outrageous claim as an actuarial and mathematical certainty. The outrageous part is that social security taxes and contributions have been squandered for so long. 2010 will be the first year where outlays for the non-existing trust fund will have to be part-financed by the federal government's General Fund. I.e. the budget trick, in reality a "fund" without funds, will be visible for the first time. Part of the social security outlays will have to be financed by higher taxes, more borrowing or more printing.

8. The price of sugar will drop one third

Despite a recent spike in prices caused by Indian drought and above average rainfall in Brazil, the forward curve already indicates considerable downside beyond 2011 so a return to more normal weather conditions in 2010 would make sugar one of the less inspiring commodities. Furthermore, the higher price of ethanol (which is correlated to the demand for sugar) has made both Brazil and the US lower the ethanol content of gasoline by five percentage points, consequently lowering the demand for sugar.

9. TSE Small Index will rise by 50%

Small cap firms have been underperforming the Nikkei, but their fundamentals indicate this is a "bargain index" compared with its large-cap peer. With a price/book ratio of only 0.77 and only about 12% of the index consisting of financials, we know no other index this cheap. Positive GDP figures in 2010 could very well make this index a surprise to the upside.

10. US trade balance will turn positive for first time in 34 years

Last time the US trade balance was positive was briefly in 1975 after a large drop in the USD following the aftermath of the oil crisis. The USD has now become cheap enough again to stimulate US exports and punish imports. The trade balance has already improved somewhat but change takes time and once it has momentum we would not rule out a positive US trade balance for one or more months of 2010.

David Karsboel, Chief Economist at Saxo Bank, comments:

"We believe that 2010 will be a year of reflation, but structural headwinds lie ahead of us and could turn 2010 into a rollercoaster ride.

"One of the most likely structural headwinds will be a shift in investor focus towards slowing GDP and timing issues regarding the path of FED tightening. This will bring risk aversion back into markets.

"Whilst our annual 'outrageous claims' should be seen as the black swans of the market rather than outright predictions, we do believe that the odds of these events happening are somewhat higher than what is currently priced into the market", says David Karsboel.

About Saxo Bank

Saxo Bank is an online trading and investment specialist, enabling clients to trade Forex, CFDs, Stocks, Futures, Options and other derivatives, as well as providing portfolio management via SaxoWebTrader and SaxoTrader, the leading online trading platforms. SaxoTrader is available directly through Saxo Bank or through one of the Bank's global partners. White label is a significant business area for Saxo Bank, and involves customised and branding the Bank's online trading platform for other financial institutions and brokers. Saxo Bank has more than 120 white label partners and boasts thousands of clients in over 180 countries. Saxo Bank is headquartered in Copenhagen with offices in Australia, China, the Czech Republic, France, Greece, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, Singapore, Spain, Switzerland, UK, and the United Arab Emirates.

SOURCE Saxo Bank

 

 

Saxo Bank's Outrageous Claims for 2009:
1) There will be severe social unrest in Iran as lower oil prices mean that the government will not be able to uphold the supply of basic necessities.
2) Crude will trade at $25 as demand slows due to the worst global economic contraction since the great Depression.
3) S&P will hit 500 in 2009 because of falling earnings, vaporizing housing equity and increased cost of funds in the corporate sector.
4) The EU is likely to crack down on excessive government budget deficits in several member states, and Italy could live up to previous threats and leave the ERM completely.
5) The AUDJPY will drop to 40. The decline in the commodities markets will affect the Australian economy.
6) EURUSD will fall to 0.95 and then go to 1.30 as European bank balances are under tremendous pressure because of exposure to the faltering Eastern European markets and intra‐European economic tensions.
7) Chinese GDP growth drops to zero. The export driven sectors in the Chinese economy will be hurt significantly by the free‐fall economic activity in the Global Trade and especially of the US.
Pre‐In's First Out. Several of the Eastern European currencies currently pegged or semi‐pegged to the EUR will be under increasing pressure due to capital outflows in 2009.
9) Reuters/ Jefferies CRB Index to drop 30% to 150. The Commodity bubble is bursting, with speculative excesses so large they have skewed the demand and supply statistics.
10) 2009 will see the first Asian currencies to be pegged to CNY. Asian economies will increasingly look towards China to find new trade partners and scale down their hitherto US‐centric agenda.

http://www.cato.org/pub_display.php?pub_id=11038

New Underground Economy

by Richard W. Rahn

Richard W. Rahn is a senior fellow at the Cato Institute and chairman of the Institute for Global Economic Growth.

Added to cato.org on December 9, 2009

The underground or "black" economy is rapidly rising, and the fault is mainly due to government policies.

Here is the evidence. The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. (FDIC) released a report last week concluding that 7.7 percent of U.S. households, containing at least 17 million adults, are unbanked (i.e. those who do not have bank accounts), and an "estimated 17.9 percent of U.S. households, roughly 21 million, are underbanked" (i.e., those who rely heavily on nonbank institutions, such as check cashing and money transmitting services). As an economy becomes richer and incomes rise, the normal expectation is that the proportion of the unbanked population falls and does not rise as is now happening in the United States.

Tax revenues are falling far more rapidly at the federal, state and local level than would be expected by the small drop in real gross domestic product (GDP) and changes in tax law that have occurred since the recession began. The currency in circulation outside the U.S. Treasury, Federal Reserve banks and the vaults of depository institutions - that is, the currency held by individuals and businesses - has grown by 13.3 percent in the last two years, while real nominal (not inflation-adjusted) GDP has not grown at all, and real (inflation-adjusted) GDP incomes have fallen by more than 3 percent. With the growth of electronic means of payment and financial service providers, it would be expected that the currency component of GDP would fall, not rise.

Richard W. Rahn is a senior fellow at the Cato Institute and chairman of the Institute for Global Economic Growth.

More by Richard W. Rahn

The underground economy refers to both legal activities, such as often found in construction and services industries where taxes are not withheld and paid, and illegal activities, such as drug dealing and prostitution.

Countries such as the United States, Switzerland and Japan historically have had relatively small, nonreporting and/or illegal sectors, a typical estimate being 13 percent of GDP.

Most European countries have had somewhat larger underground sectors (typically 20 percent or so) in part because of the desire to escape higher tax rates. Italy and some of the other Southern European countries are believed to have underground sectors that account for 30 percent or more of all economic activity.

I recall an Italian finance minister telling a few of us at a meeting a couple of decades ago that, for policy purposes, he assumed that "the economy was 40 percent larger than what was reported." In some developing countries and/or highly corrupt countries, underground or "off the books" activities are estimated to be as high as 70 percent of all economic activity.

The FDIC report about the size of the unbanked or underbanked sector in the U.S. should be of concern because those who do not use the banking system often have to pay higher fees to cash checks, pay bills (e.g., money orders, etc.), or transmit funds.

People who keep their savings in cash at home rather than in banks make themselves easier prey for criminals and are more likely to lose their money to fire, flood, or just neglect. Not surprisingly, a majority (71 percent) of the unbanked have household incomes of less than $30,000 per year.

There are many reasons people do not have bank accounts. Banks, because of the "know your customer" and other anti-money laundering regulations, make it difficult for nonestablished people, such as the young and transient, as well as legal and illegal immigrants, to open bank accounts.

Also, many of these same regulations are responsible for the rise in bank fees, which are a particular burden for low-income people. You can be sure that every time Congress passes some new law or the IRS implements some new regulation to "get tax cheats," much of the real burden of these compliance costs will fall on those least able to afford it, while those intent on finding their way around it will do so.

People also avoid having bank accounts because they are vulnerable to asset seizure, judgments, levies, etc. Increasingly, bankers and others who provide financial services are forced by governments to spy and snitch on their own customers, and this is a real turnoff for many people, which causes them to find other ways of maintaining financial privacy.

Many studies have shown that when people believe the taxes they are required to pay are reasonable and the political leaders tend to spend their tax dollars wisely, tax compliance rises, and vice versa. In the United States, there is increased evidence that many tax dollars are not being spent wisely and are often used to pay off political cronies.

Over the past year in particular, the public has become aware that many in Washington who advocate higher taxes and argue that everyone has a responsibility to pay taxes are themselves not complying with the tax laws and regulations.

When you have a secretary of the Treasury and the chairman of the House Ways and Means Committee (the tax writing committee) accused of cheating on their taxes, it greatly undermines the moral authority of the tax collectors, making the common citizens feel like chumps and, hence, much more willing to try to legally avoid or illegally evade taxes themselves.

The evidence is unambiguous; governments cannot increase tax compliance and decrease the size of the underground economy by ever increasing and more onerous regulations.

It is no accident that those governments that allow their citizens a high degree of personal and financial liberty, including financial privacy, and spend taxpayer dollars wisely, honestly and competently, have much smaller underground sectors than corrupt and oppressive governments. Washington, take note.

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