It's A "0.6%" World: Who Owns What Of The $223 Trillion In Global Wealth

Back in 2010 we started an annual series looking at the (re)distribution in the wealth of nations and social classes. What we found then (and what the media keeps rediscovering year after year to its great surprise) is that as a result of global central bank policy, the rich got richer, and the poor kept on getting poorer, even though as we predicted the global political powers would, at least superficially, seek to enforce policies that aimed to reverse this wealth redistribution from the poor to the rich (a doomed policy as the world's legislative powers are largely in the lobby pocket of the world's wealthiest who needless to say are less then willing to enact laws that reduce their wealth and leverage). Now that the topic of wealth distribution (or rather concentration) is once again in vogue, below we present the latest such update looking at a global portrait of household wealth. The bottom line: 29 million, or 0.6% of those with any actual assets under their name, own $87.4 trillion, or 39.3% of all global assets.

Here are the key highlights via Credit Suisse:

• Global household wealth in mid-2012 totaled $223 trillion, equivalent to USD 49,000 per adult in the world.  This is a decline of $12.3 trillion mostly due to a $10.9 trillion decline in European wealth, however it is double the $113 trillion in total wealth at the start of the millennium
  • Losses in Africa, India and the Latin American countries were offset by modest gains in North America (USD 880 billion) and China (USD 560 billion),
• CS expects total household wealth to rise by almost 50% in the next five years from $223 trillion in 2012 to $330 trillion in 2017. What CS does not say is that the bulk of this increase is courtesy of Federal Reserve-facilitated wealth redistribution from the lower and middle classes to the upper class.
• The number of millionaires worldwide is expected to increase by about 18 million, reaching 46 million in 2017.
• China is expected to surpass Japan as the second wealthiest country in the world. However, the USA should remain on top of the wealth league, with $89 trillion by 2017.

Drilling down the distribution of global wealth, in charts:

By the middle of 2011, global wealth had recovered from the 2007 financial crisis; at that time, total wealth matched or exceeded the pre-crisis levels in all regions except Africa.

Global wealth by country: The figure for average global wealth masks the considerable variation across countries and regions (see Figure 3). The richest nations, with wealth per adult over USD 100,000, are found in North America, Western Europe, and among the rich Asia- Pacific and Middle Eastern countries. They are headed by Switzerland, which in 2011 became the first country in which average wealth exceeded USD 500,000. Exchange rate fluctuations have reduced its wealth per adult from USD 540,000 in 2011 to USD 470,000 in 2012; but this still remains considerably higher than the level in Australia (USD 350,000) and Norway (USD 330,000), which retain second and third places despite falls of about 10%. Close behind are a group of nations with average wealth above USD 200,000, many of which have experienced double-digit depreciations against the US dollar, such as France, Sweden, Belgium, Denmark and Italy. Countries in the group which have not been adversely affected have moved up the rankings – most notably Japan to fourth place with wealth of USD 270,000 per adult and the USA to seventh place with USD 260,000 per adult.

Interestingly, the ranking by median wealth is slightly different, favoring countries with lower levels of wealth inequality. As was the case last year, Australia (USD 195,000) tops the table by a considerable margin, with Japan, Italy, Belgium, and the UK in the band from USD 110,000 to 140,000, and Singapore and Switzerland with values around USD 90,000. The USA lags far behind with median wealth of just USD 55,000.

Trends in wealth per adult and its components: As Figure 5 shows, average household net worth trended upwards from 2000 until the crisis in 2007, then fell by approximately 10% before recovering in 2011 to slightly above the pre-crisis level. Further setbacks this year have pushed wealth per adult back below the previous peak. However, exchange rate movements account for much of the year-onyear variation. Using constant USD exchange rates yields a smoother time trend and a single significant downturn in 2008, after which point the recovery has continued more or less unabated.

At the start of the millennium, financial assets accounted for well over half of the household portfolio, but the share declined until 2008, at which point the global wealth portfolio was equally split between financial and nonfinancial assets (mostly property). In the period since 2008, the balance has again tipped slightly towards financial assets.

On the liabilities side of the household balance sheet, average debt rose by 80% between 2000 and 2007, and subsequently leveled out. It now amounts to USD 8,600 per adult, about 7% lower than it was the same time a year ago. Expressed as a proportion of household assets, average debt has moved in a narrow range, rising over the period, but never exploding.

The composition of household portfolios varies widely and systematically across countries. The most persistent feature is the rise in the relative importance of both financial assets and liabilities with the level of development. For instance, financial assets account for 43.1% of gross assets in Europe and 67.1% in North America, but just 15.9% of gross assets in India. Household debt as a percentage of gross assets is 16% in Europe and 18.1% in North America, but only 3.7% in India and 8.7% in Africa. There is also variation in portfolios unrelated to the level of development. Some developed countries, like Italy, have unusually low liabilities (10.0% of gross assets), while others have surprisingly high debt, like Denmark (33.7% of gross assets). In addition, the mix of financial assets varies greatly, reflecting national differences in financial structure. The share of equities in total financial assets, for example, ranges from 43.4% in the USA, down to just 20.1% and 6.5% in Germany and Japan respectively.

Changes to household wealth from mid-2011 to mid-2012; The adverse global economic climate and the USD appreciation that occurred during the year until mid-2012 meant that household wealth rose by more than USD 100 billion in only four countries: the USA (USD 1.3 trillion), China (USD 560 billion), Japan (USD 370 billion) and Colombia (USD 100 billion). Figure 6 shows that Eurozone members suffered the largest losses, led by France (USD 2.2 trillion), Italy (USD 2.1 trillion), Germany (USD 1.9 trillion) and Spain (USD 870 billion). These losses were exacerbated by the unfavorable euro-dollar exchange rate movement, but even in euro terms, wealth declined by EUR 50 billion in Germany, EUR 148 billion in France, EUR 177 billion in Spain and EUR 286 billion in Italy. Sizeable USD wealth reductions were also recorded in the UK (USD 720 billion), India (USD 700 billion), Australia (USD 600 billion), Brazil (USD 530 billion), Canada (USD 440 billion) and Switzerland (USD 410 billion).

The largest percentage gains and losses generate a slightly different list. A steady USD exchange rate, combined with an 11% improvement in market capitalization, helped Colombia to top the country rankings with a 16% rise in household wealth. Algeria, Hong Kong, Peru and Uruguay also recorded gains of more than 5%. The downside is more evident, especially in Eurozone countries, where double-digit losses were recorded everywhere (see Figure 7). Other sizeable declines were recorded for Russia (–13%), Mexico (–14%), South Africa (–15%) and India (–18%), while Eastern Europe had a very poor year, led by the Czech Republic and Poland (both with –18%), Hungary (–25%) and Romania (–36%).

* * *

But in a globalized world with virtually unlimited capital flows (for now: see Cyprus) physical borders mean little. Which is why next we look at the global wealth pyramid which breaks down wealth as percentage of the world population: i.e., who owns how much without geographic prejudice. It is here that is becomes most obvious how global policies since the Great Financial Crisis have benefitted the wealthiest at the expense of everyone else.

Presenting the global wealth pyramid:

Here are the stunning facts:

• In 2012, 3.2 billion individuals – more than two-thirds of the global adult population – have wealth below USD 10,000, and a further one billion (23% of the adult population) are placed in the USD 10,000–100,000 range.
  • The average wealth holding is modest in the base and middle segments of the pyramid, total wealth amounts to USD 39 trillion, underlining the potential for new consumer trends products and for the development of financial services targeted at this often neglected segment.
• The remaining 373 million adults (8% of the world) have assets exceeding USD 100,000.
• And then the top of the pyramid: 29 million US dollar millionaires, a group which contains less than 1% of the world’s adult population, collectively owns nearly 40% of global household wealth.
• Some 84,500 individuals are worth more than USD 50 million, and 29,000 are worth over USD 100 million.
  • The composition of the wealth pyramid in 2012 is broadly similar to that of the previous year, except for the fact that the overall reduction in total wealth increases the percentage of adults in the base level from 67.6% to 69.3% and reduces the relevant population share higher up the pyramid by a corresponding amount. The respective wealth shares are virtually unchanged.

Breaking it down by class.

Lower Class (base level of pyramid):

The various strata of the wealth pyramid have distinctive characteristics. Although members of the base level are spread widely across all regions, representation in India and Africa is disproportionately high, while Europe and North America are correspondingly underrepresented (see Figure 2). The base tier has the most even distribution across regions and countries, but it is also the most heterogeneous, spanning a wide range of family circumstances. In developed countries, only about 30% of the population fall into this category, and for most of these individuals, membership is a transient or life cycle phenomenon associated with youth, old age, or periods of unemployment. In contrast, more than 90% of the adult population in India and Africa are located within this band. In many low-income African countries, the percentage of the population is close to 100%. Thus, for many residents of low-income countries, lifetime membership of the base tier is the norm rather than the exception. However, lower living costs mean that the upper limit of USD 10,000 is often sufficient to assure a reasonable standard of living.

While bottom-of-the-pyramid countries have limited wealth, it often grows at a fast pace. In India, for example, wealth is skewed towards the bottom of the wealth pyramid, yet it has tripled since 2000. Indonesia has also seen dramatic growth, and aggregate wealth in Latin America is now USD 8.7 trillion, compared to USD 3.4 trillion in 2000. In contrast, while North Americans dominate the top of the wealth pyramid, wealth in the USA has grown more modestly, from USD 39.5 trillion in 2000 to USD 62 trillion today.

Middle Class (middle level of pyramid):

The one billion adults located in the USD 10,000–100,000 range are the middle class in the global distribution of wealth. The average wealth holding is close to the global average for all wealth levels, and the total wealth of USD 32 trillion gives this segment considerable economic weight. The regional composition of this tier most closely corresponds to the global pattern, although India and Africa are underrepresented. The comparison of China and India is particularly interesting.  India is host to just 3% of the global middle class, and the share has been relatively stagnant in recent years. In contrast, China’s share has been growing fast and now accounts for over one-third of members, ten times higher than India’s. 

Upper Class (upper level of pyramid):

High wealth segment of the pyramid The regional composition changes significantly when it comes to the 373 million adults worldwide who make up the “high” segment of the wealth pyramid – those with a net worth above USD 100,000. North America, Europe and the Asia- Pacific region together account for 89% of the global membership of this group, with Europe alone home to 141 million members (38% of the total).  This compares with about 2.4 million adult members in India (0.6% of the global total) and a similar number in Africa.

The number of people in a given country with wealth above USD 100,000 depends on three factors: population size, the average wealth level, and wealth inequality within the country concerned. In 2012, only 15 countries have more than 1% of the global membership. The USA leads with 21% of the total. In this instance, the three factors reinforce each other: a large population, combined with high mean wealth and an unequal wealth distribution. Japan is a strong second and is currently the only country that challenges the hegemony of the USA in the top wealth-holder rankings. Although its relative position has declined over the past couple of decades due to the lackluster performance of its equity and housing markets, Japan has 18% of individuals with wealth above USD 100,000, a couple of points more than a year ago.

The most populous EU countries – Italy, the UK, Germany, and France – each contribute 6%–8% to the high wealth segment, and each country has experienced a small decline in its membership share during the year. For many years, these countries have occupied positions three to six in the global rankings, but this year China edged France out of sixth place, a dramatic improvement from the situation in 2000, when China’s representation in the top wealth groups was too small to register. Brazil, Korea and Taiwan are other emerging market economies with at least four million residents with a net worth above USD 100,000. Mexico accounted for more than 1% of the group in 2011, but has dropped below this benchmark this year. 

The Ultra-High Class (the very Top of the pyramid):

A different pattern of membership is again evident among the world’s millionaires at the top of the pyramid (see Figure 3). Compared to individuals with wealth  above USD 100,000, the proportion of members from the United States almost doubles to 39%, and the shares of most of the other countries move downwards. There are exceptions, however. France moves up to third place in the rankings, and Sweden and Switzerland both join the group of countries with more than 1% of global millionaires. Thank you Federal Reserve. 

Welcome to (say goodbye to) the Millionaire's Club:

Changing membership of the “millionaire group”; Changes to wealth levels since mid-2011 have affected the pattern of wealth distribution. The overall decline in average wealth has raised the proportion of adults with wealth below USD 10,000 from 67.6% in mid-2011 to 69.3% in mid-2012 (as the poor get poorer), and reduced the number of millionaires by slightly more than one million (see Table 1). There were 962,000 new millionaires in the United States and 460,000 in Japan, but no significant increase in numbers elsewhere. However, Europe shed almost 1.8 million US dollar millionaires, most notably in Italy (–374,000), France (–322,000),Germany (–290,000), Denmark (–179,000), Sweden (–142,000) and Spain (–87,000). Australia, Canada, Brazil and Taiwan are the other countries in  the group of the top ten losers. The losses were sufficient to drop Brazil, Denmark and Taiwan (along with Belgium) from the list of countries with more than 1% of the total number of millionaires worldwide.

High net worth individuals; To estimate the pattern of wealth holdings above USD 1 million requires a high degree of ingenuity because at high wealth levels, the usual sources of wealth data – official statistics and sample surveys – become increasingly incomplete and unreliable. We overcome this deficiency by  exploiting wellknown statistical regularities in the upper parts of the wealth distribution to ensure that the top wealth tail is consistent with the annual Forbes tally of global billionaires and similar “rich list” data published elsewhere. This produces plausible estimates of the global pattern of asset holdings in the high net worth (HNW) category from USD 1 million to USD 50 million, and in the ultra high net worth (UHNW) range from USD 50 million upwards. While the base of the wealth pyramid is occupied by people from all countries of the world at various stages of their life cycles, HNW and UHNW individuals are heavily concentrated in particular regions and countries, and tend to share a similar lifestyle, participating in the same global markets for high coupon consumption items, even when they reside on different continents. The wealth portfolios of individuals are also likely to be similar, dominated by financial assets and, in particular, equity holdings in public  companies traded in international markets. For these reasons, using official exchange rates to value assets is more appropriate than using local price levels.

There are about 28.5 million HNW individuals with wealth between USD 1 million and USD 50 million in mid-2012, of whom the vast majority (25.6 million) fall in the USD 1–5 million range (see Figure 4). One year ago, Europe overtook North America as the region with the greatest number of HNW individuals, but tradition has been  restored this year, with 11.8 million residents (42% of the total) in North America and 9.2 million (32%) in Europe. Asia-Pacific countries excluding China and India have 5.7 million members (20%), and we estimate that there are currently a fraction under one million HNW individuals in China (3.4% of the global total). The remaining 753,000 HNW individuals (2.6% of the total) reside in India, Africa or Latin America.

Ultra high net worth individuals

There is an estimated are 84,500 UHNW individuals in the world, defined here as those with net assets exceeding USD 50 million. Of these, 29,300 are worth at least USD 100 million and 2,700 have assets above USD 500 million. North America dominates the regional rankings, with 40,000 UHNW residents (47%), while Europe has 22,000 individuals (26%), and 12,800 (15%) reside in Asia-Pacific countries, excluding China and India. In terms of individual countries, the USA leads by a huge margin with 37,950 UHNW individuals, equivalent to 45% of the group (see Figure 5). The recent fortunes created in China have propelled it into second place with 4,700 representatives (5.6% of the global total), followed by Germany (4,000), Japan (3,400), the United Kingdom (3,200) and Switzerland (3,050). Numbers in other BRIC countries are also rising fast, with 1,950 members in Russia, 1,550 in India and 1,500 in Brazil, and strong showings are evident in Taiwan (1,200), Hong Kong (1,100) and Turkey (1,000). Although there is very little comparable data on the past, it is almost certain that the number of UHNW individuals is considerably greater than it was a decade ago. The overall growth in asset values accounts for part of the increase, together with the appreciation of currencies against the US dollar over much of the period. However, it also appears that, notwithstanding the credit crisis and the more recent setbacks, the past decade has been especially conducive to the establishment of large fortunes.

Hail Bernanke (and Kuroda, and Draghi, and Carney, and Jordan, and so on), the ultra high net worth individuals on the chart below salute you.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-06-02/its-1-world-who-owns-what-223-trillion-global-wealth

The Great Plunge is Coming

Are you ready for the next stock-market crash of the century? The Hindenburg Omen was spotted by eagle eyes on April 15th. It was confirmed by a sighting on May 29th. That gives us 40 days approximately before the market takes a plunge (apparently). That’s enough to spark fears on the market that we are in for a shaky time, but are those fears really justified and will the market plunge as the Hindenburg Omen predicts?

The Hindenburg is a technical analysis pattern that predicts highs and lows of the stock market based upon Norman G. Fosback’s High Low Logic Index (HLLI). It was invented by Jim Miekka in 1995. It’s used as a way of predicting big turndowns.

The Hindenburg has to meet four criteria and it is calculated using Wall Street Journal figures daily.

1. The sum of new 52-week highs and the sum of new 52-week lows must be equal or greater to 2.8% of the sum of NYSE issues advancing or declining on any given day.

2.  NYSE must be greater in terms of value than it was 50 days beforehand.

3. The McClellan Oscillator (money entering and leaving the market) must be negative on that day also (in other words, below zero equals a bearish market).

4. The 52-week highs must not be more than twice the 52-week lows (but the opposite does not hold).

The two sightings mean that the Hindenburg Omen has met the criteria.

The Great Plunge is Coming | Zero Hedge

Eurozone to expand with 18th member Latvia

The Baltic state, which has endured years of tough austerity measures to rehabilitate its economy after a 2008 crisis, is expected to be deemed eligible for single currency membership by the European Commission on Wednesday.

For a member state to join the eurozone, it must achieve a public deficit of less than 3pc of GDP and public debt no higher than 60pc of GDP. The EU also demands that the country's central bank operates independently of government and that inflation is under control.

Latvia's determination to join the eurozone has seen it undergo a painful internal devaluation involving deep spending cuts and tax hikes, in order to keep its currency, the lat, pegged to the euro. This strict fiscal discipline has seen Latvia achieve public debt of 41pc, one of the lowest in the EU.

While it posted the fastest economic growth in the EU in the last three months of 2012, when GDP grew 5.1pc year-on-year, Latvia remains one of the poorest countries in the bloc.

Valdis Dombrovskis, the country's premier, has made eurozone membership a central pillar of his four years in power. But his enthusiasm to join the eurozone is not wholly reflected among the Latvian people, who have repeatedly called for a referendum on the matter.

Eurozone to expand with 18th member Latvia - Telegraph

IRS victims testify as new agency scandal emerges

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Conservative groups who were targeted by the Internal Revenue Service are getting their say on Capitol Hill just as the details of another IRS controversy are being made public.

The leaders of six conservative groups were scheduled to tell lawmakers Tuesday about their mistreatment at the hands of IRS agents. Several of the groups say their applications for tax-exempt status were delayed while agents asked intrusive questions that the IRS has since acknowledged were inappropriate. One group, the National Organization for Marriage, says the IRS publicly disclosed confidential information about donors.

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_IRS_INVESTIGATION?SITE=CAOAK&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT

Faber says financial assets doomed, moving his physical gold to Asia

As Barron's notes in this recent interview, Marc Faber view the world with a skeptical eye, and never hesitates to speak his mind when things don't look quite right. In other words, he would be the first in a crowd to tell you the emperor has no clothes, and has done so early, often, and aptly in the case of numerous investment bubbles. With even the world's bankers now concerned at 'unsustainable bubbles', it is therefore unsurprising that in the discussion below, Faber explains, among other things, the fallacy of the Fed's help "the problem is the money doesn't flow into the system evenly, how with money-printing "the majority loses, and the minority wins," and how, thanks to the further misallocation of capital, "people with assets are all doomed, because prices are grossly inflated globally for stocks and bonds." Faber says he buys gold every month, adding that "I want to have some assets that aren't in the banking system. When the asset bubble bursts, financial assets will be particularly vulnerable."

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-06-01/marc-faber-people-financial-assets-are-all-doomed

On Gold: 

Gold is down 30% from its 2011 peak of $1,921, but has far outperformed financial assets since 1999. A correction was overdue. I have about a 25% allocation to gold and buy some every month. I want to have some assets that aren't in the banking system. When the asset bubble bursts, financial assets will be particularly vulnerable.

Gold is easier to carry than a Lamborghini.

Most of my gold is in a safe-deposit box in Switzerland, but I am shifting it to Asia.

HSBC appoints ex-MI5 chief Sir Jonathan Evans

The former director-general of MI5 is to join HSBC's board as a non-executive director in August.

Sir Jonathan Evans, who spent three decades at the intelligence service, will be paid £125,000 to work 40 days a year at the bank.

He will also become a member of a special committee HSBC created to help combat financial crime.

The unit was set up after the bank was fined $2bn (£1.3bn) in the US over money laundering and sanction breaches.

The bank has already appointed Dave Hartnett, the former head of HM Revenue and Customs, and Jim Comey, a former US deputy attorney general, as advisers to the Financial System Vulnerabilities Committee.

Bill Hughes, a former head of the UK's Serious Organised Crime Agency was also recruited when the committee was set up in January. BBC News - HSBC appoints ex-MI5 chief Sir Jonathan Evans to board

NFA Membership Totals

NFA Membership Totals by Highest Class*

	As of April 30, 2013
Total Membership	4,026
Swap Dealers	42
Major Swap Participants	2
Retail Foreign Exchange Dealers	11
Futures Commission Merchants	89
Introducing Brokers	1,249
Commodity Pool Operators	1,614
Commodity Trading Advisors	1,012
Exchanges	7
Associates	54,713

*NFA Members are listed by their highest class of membership. However, many NFA Members are registered in more than one membership category. For example, an FCM that manages or exercises discretion over customer accounts may also be registered as a CTA.

http://www.nfa.futures.org/NFA-registration/NFA-membership-and-dues.HTML

Swiss banks to cooperate with IRS

FORTUNE -- Are you among the suspected tens of thousands of Americans with a secret Swiss bank account that you are still hiding from the Internal Revenue Service? If so, you are about to acquire a Matterhorn-sized headache.

Switzerland made a desperate decision on Wednesday to save its battered private banking sector by allowing Swiss banks to cooperate with a broad tax evasion probe by U.S. investigators. It is likely to unleash a flood of fresh disclosures to the IRS by American taxpayers, lawyers say.

Such disclosures could trigger hefty fines that can reach a multiple of what an account holds. To stand a chance of reducing those fines, Americans with hidden Swiss accounts "should run, not walk, to jump in line with an IRS voluntary disclosure in light of this move by the Swiss government," says Josh Ungerman, a tax and estates lawyer in Dallas and a former IRS prosecutor.

Lawrence Horn, a tax and business crimes lawyer in Newark, N.J. and a former federal prosecutor, says he expects "at least 10,000" American taxpayers to come forward in the next 12 months or so.

The Swiss decision has two key points: Over the course of 12 months, banks will be allowed to turn over to American authorities general statistical data on their work with American clients. More significantly, the U.S. can seek concrete account details -- with names of taxpayers -- if the U.S. Senate gets its act together and passes a double-taxation treaty already green-lighted by Bern.

http://finance.fortune.cnn.com/2013/05/30/swiss-bank-accounts-irs/?iid=Lead

Volcker: Fed will 'fall short'

Former Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker is worried that the Fed is being asked to "do too much."

NEW YORK (CNNMoney)

The Federal Reserve has been asked to "do too much" to heal the U.S. economy and "will inevitably fall short," former Fed Chairman Paul Volcker cautioned Wednesday.

Speaking before the Economic Club of New York, Volcker said the Fed's independence and credibility are at stake, as the central bank engages in unprecedented stimulus efforts.

http://money.cnn.com/2013/05/29/news/economy/volcker-economic-club/ 

Nasdaq fined $10 Million for poor systems and decision making

Nasdaq OMX Group Inc. (NDAQ) agreed to pay $10 million to settle Securities and Exchange Commission charges that its mishandling of Facebook (FB) Inc.’s initial public offering last year was a violation of securities laws.

Regulators cited the second-largest operator of U.S. equity markets for its “poor systems and decision-making” during the IPO in May that was delayed by a computer malfunction. The settlement is the largest with an American exchange, which enjoy legal protections because of their self-regulating role.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-05-29/nasdaq-agrees-to-pay-10-million-to-settle-sec-facebook-charges.html

Liberty Reserve founders charged unmasking $6 Billion in illicit funds

Liberty Reserve SA, whose operators are charged with running a scheme that masked more than $6 billion of criminal proceeds, was designed to help users evade scrutiny, U.S. prosecutors said.

The digital currency company, unlike traditional banks or legitimate online payment processors, didn’t require users to validate their identity and allowed accounts to be opened under fictitious names such as “Russia Hackers” and “Hacker Account,” according to prosecutors. Liberty Reserve Joe Bogus Account Said to Reflect Evasion - Bloomberg

Chart: Stocks relative to Copper

Got Wood? A Housing Recovery Built On Faith

With lumber prices limit-down again (and now over 28% from their March highs), we are left assuming that they are building houses with hopium, as opposed to wood, these days...

 [3]

Of course this is not the first time we have mentioned the precipitous limit-down day-after-day collapse in Lumber prices (here [4]) and why it is relevant (here [5]) but the fact that we havs roundtripped to when QE3 was announced is perhaps notable in its own right (while homebuilders are up 50%)

The question now is - who will be the big bad wolf to blow these housing dreams down?

Charts: Bloomberg

http://www.zerohedge.com/print/474506

Liberty Reserve forced offline

Liberty Reserve - a Costa Rican-based digital currency service - has been shut down after the reported arrest of its founder.

Authorities in the Central American country said Arthur Budovsky had been taken into custody in Spain on suspicion of money laundering, following an investigation which also involved the US.

They added that police had raided several of Mr Budovsky's properties and seized his computer servers.

The site went offline on Thursday.

Liberty Reserve had described itself as being the internet's "oldest, safest and most popular payment processor... serving millions all around a world".

It had allowed users to open accounts and transfer money, only requiring them to provide a name, date of birth and an email address.

Cash could be put into the service using a credit card, bank wire, postal money order or other money transfer service. It was then "converted" into one of the firm's own currencies - mirroring either the Euro or US dollar - at which point it could be transferred to another account holder who could then extract the funds.

The service promised that payment transfers were "instantaneous" and it charged a maximum of $2.99 (£1.98) for each transaction. It also offered a private messaging facility which it said was "much more private and secure than email or instant messenger services".

Security expert Bryan Krebs said Liberty Reserve's features had made it a popular among cybercriminals who wanted to move funds and make payments anonymously.

However, others said they had used the service for legitimate means, viewing it as a cheaper alternative to PayPal. They fear they will now lose money still sitting in its accounts.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-22680297

Caterpillar North America Sales Collapse Suggests US Economy Back To 2010 Levels

While we have wondered on numerous occasions previously [4]if the collapse in lumber prices is the far more accurate indicator of end demand for housing (as confirmed by the recent collapse in multi-family housing starts [5]), perhaps an even better indicator of trends in housing (and by implication the broader economy) is private sector intermediate end demand, such as Caterpillar North America sales, which unlike government data, are far less subject to political intervention, interpolation, guesswork, seasonal adjustments and otherwise, general manipulation.

And even though we have previously reported [6]on the woes ailing the world's largest seller of bulldozers, excavators and wheel loaders, such focus was primarily targeted in the offshore markets, and especially China (the abysmal European market needs no mention). So maybe the time has come to shift attention to the US, where as Caterpillar just reported, not only are all foreign markets still trending at several impacted levels, but where US machine retail sales just saw the biggest tumble in three years, falling 18% Y/Y: the most since early 2010. What is more disturbing is that CAT equipment is used in far-broader economic activities than merely housing, and likely is a far more accurate indicator of true industrial end-demand than any other number cherry-picked by the government.

 [7]

Whether one can extrapolate general trends in the US economy based on how Caterpiller is doing in its North American market, is an open-ended (rhetorical) question which we leave to readers.

However, maybe a far better question is whether CAT NA sales is the same true proxy for the state of the US economy, as electric consumption - that Achilles heel of Chinese economic data manipulation - is to China.

Compare and contrast the chart above, with the chart below, showing the collapse in Chinese electricity consumption.

 [8]

If the answer is yes, and if indeed both the US and Chinese economies are now operating at a true level not seen since 2010, then just how bad is the rest of the world, if somehow the US continues to be perceived as the cleanest dirty shirt while the world's fastest marginal growing economy is in fact, crashing to earth?

Source: CAT Dealer Statistics [9] [9]

http://www.zerohedge.com/print/474168

CME Halted Silver Trading 4 Times Sunday as Prices Slid 9%

NEW YORK--Exchange operator CME Group Inc. ( CME ) said it halted silver trading four times Sunday evening due to highly volatile markets, a spokesman told Dow Jones Newswires.

The trading halts came as silver futures slumped 9.4% to a low of $20.250 a troy ounce in the first few minutes following the open of electronic trading on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Silver trading was stopped for two 20 second intervals at 6:07 p.m. EDT and 6:09 p.m. EDT, and two consecutive 20 second halts at 6:09 p.m. and 6:10 p.m., the spokesman said. CME Group owns and operates both the Nymex and the Comex exchanges.

Known as Stop Logic, the trading halts are triggered in highly volatile markets to prevent excessive price movements, the spokesman said.

Silver futures were recently trading down 76.2 cents, or 3.4%, at $21.590 a troy ounce.

CME Halted Silver Trading 4 Times Sunday as Prices Slid 9%

Growing Discontent in the EU

Growing Discontent in the EU

Save Europe: Split the Euro

On the eve of the American Civil War, Abraham Lincoln famously said that “a house divided cannot stand.” Today, the European Union -- committed for decades to the quest for “ever closer union” -- must confront an agonizing truth. Lincoln’s maxim must be inverted. For the EU to survive, the euro must divide.

Between the Treaty of Rome in 1957 and the Single European Act in 1986, Europe’s governments brought about the one great peaceful revolution the continent has seen in its long and troubled history. The creation of a single European currency would build on this remarkable success. It was the next vital step to greater unity and prosperity. The economic crisis in southern Europe shows that the euro system, at least in its current form, has instead become a mortal threat to both.

Greece, Spain, Portugal, Italy and Cyprus are trapped in a recession and cannot restore their competitiveness by devaluing their currencies. The euro area’s northern economies have had to join in repeated bailouts and put aside their notions of prudent finance. A vicious circle of resentment and populism in the south and strengthening nationalism in the north is tearing the union apart.

And the crisis isn’t yet abating. France, Europe’s second-largest economy, is now sinking into a grave economic slump. Like the southern countries, it must restore its competitiveness; like them, as part of the euro system, it lacks the means. Because of its size and because of the guiding role it has played in the EU’s development, France, we’ll argue in Part 2 of this article, will be crucial in breaking the vicious circle.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2013-05-14/save-europe-split-the-euro.html

NYSE Breaks Trades That Sent Anadarko Petroleum Shares Down 99%

The New York Stock Exchange broke trades in Anadarko Petroluem Corp. executed at or below $87.56 in the final minute of today’s session.

The transactions drove Anadarko down as much as 99 percent to 1 cent in the final second of trading, theoretically wiping out almost its entire $45 billion in market value. The stock recovered and ended the session at $90.03, up 2.5 percent on the day. Trades at $87.56 were 0.3 percent lower than the stock’s closing price yesterday and 2.7 percent below its close today. NYSE Breaks Trades That Sent Anadarko Petroleum Shares Down 99% - Bloomberg

The New York Stock Exchange on Friday canceled rogue Anadarko Petroleum Corp.APC +91.54% stock trades in the last second of the trading day that took the stock to from $90 to one cent in some trades.

Data on FactSet Research also showed erratic moves in the last hour of trading, with at least one bringing the price under $20 a share. But the sudden drop to near zero occurred in the final second of trading, FactSet showed. Shares of Anadarko ended Friday 2.2% higher at $90.03. The company deferred comment to the NYSE.

The stock exchange initiated a “clearly erroneous execution review,” which it defines as “an execution with an obvious error in any term, such as price, number of shares or other unit of trading, or identification of the security,” and eventually canceled all trades executed at or below $87.56 a share in that last second.

“The NYSE has determined to cancel all trades in Anadarko Petroleum Corp, executed at or below $87.56 between 15:59:59 and 16:00:00 today,” the exchange said in a statement. It said the decision wasn’t subject to appeal.

Exchanges regularly review such rogue trades and eventually cancel most, if not all, of them. “Broken trades,” however, have started to gather more attention — and concern — after the May 2010 “flash crash” highlighted weaknesses in trading systems stretched to the max by high-frequency and other specialized trading programs.

http://blogs.marketwatch.com/energy-ticker/2013/05/17/nyse-cancels-rogue-anadarko-trades/ 

Risks for Cyprus are "unusually high"

May 17 (Reuters) - The IMF said on Friday that risks for Cyprus were "unusually high" given its weak banking sector and economy and the island's full adoption of an economic austerity plan was imperative.

The island's 17.5 billion euro economy faced risks from the uncertain impact of the crisis in its banking sector and the possibility that its economic contraction could be deeper than projected, the IMF said in a staff report.

"Given substantial risks to the outlook and debt sustainability, there is no room for implementation slippages," it said.

The Fund said the impact of Cyprus's debt crisis on its economy will last longer than for other euro zone members that have had debt problems, with the exception of Greece.

Risks for Cyprus are unusually high, adoption of austerity plan imperative -IMF | Reuters

Is a New World Currency Regime Coming?

EES: Meta Trader 4 adds one click trading functionality

Argentina Peso Gap Between Official And Black Market Rate Hits To 100%, BMWs Become Inflation Hedge

Despite efforts by the government to quell the black-market (or blue-dollar) for Argentina's foreign exchange, the unofficial rate surged yesterday to 10.45 Pesos per USD. This is now double the official rate of 5.22 Pesos per USD. This implicit 50% devaluation comes amid the growing realization that there is no savings option to maintain the purchasing power of the peso in the context of sustained high inflation (no matter what the officials say) and negative real interest rates. The government is not amused, suggesting the devaluation won't happen (just as Mexico did right up until the day before they devalued), "those who seek to make money at the expense of devaluations must wait for another government." Perhaps the government should be careful with their threats? And of course, this could never happen in the US or Japan, right?

And in the meantime, looking to hedge their inflation risk while taking advantage of the massive FX rate differential, the local population has found a new and original inflation hedge: BMWs.

Argentines are buying more BMWs, Jaguars and other luxury cars as a store of value as inflation decimates their deposits and pummels the nation’s bonds.

Purchases of cars from Germany’s Bayerische Motoren Werke AG (BMW) and Jaguar Land Rover Automotive Plc, owned by India’s Tata Motors Ltd. (TTMT), jumped the most in April among brands sold in Argentina. The sales were part of a 30 percent surge in car sales from a year earlier that was the biggest increase in 20 months, according to the Argentine Car Producers Association. While used-car prices rose in line with inflation last year, or about 25 percent, peso bonds tied to consumer prices fell 13 percent. The drop was the biggest in emerging markets.

Car sales in Argentina increased by the most in almost two years last month as a ban on buying dollars made Argentines turn to vehicles to protect savings against the fastest inflation in the Western Hemisphere after Venezuela. Luxury models are becoming more attractive because they are imported at the official dollar rate, said Gonzalo Dalmasso, vehicle industry analyst at Buenos Aires research company Abeceb.com. Argentines with savings in dollars are able to purchase cars at half the cost by trading in the unofficial currency market.

“I’m seeing a lot of people buying high-end cars for the first time, trading Minis for middle of the market models,” Ignacio Monteserin, a salesman at BMW’s Mini Cooper dealership in Buenos Aires’s Libertador Avenue, said. “It’s become very convenient to own luxury cars in general because of the big gap in the exchange rates and you get to have a quality good that will preserve the value of your money with time.”

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-05-14/argentina-peso-gap-between-official-and-black-market-rate-hits-100

EU to start talks with Switzerland on bank secrecy

BRUSSELS, May 14 (Reuters) - European Union finance ministers gave the green light on Tuesday to start talks with Switzerland, Liechtenstein and three other countries on new rules for swapping bank account information, officials said.
The talks had long been opposed by EU members Luxembourg and Austria, which were seeking to defend their own bank secrecy rules, but on Tuesday their finance ministers dropped those objections.
"Ministers have adopted a negotiating mandate on (the) savings tax with Switzerland, Liechtenstein, Andorra, Monaco and San Marino," said one EU official, with knowledge of the talks. The basis of the talks with Switzerland will be the so-called EU savings tax directive.
By giving the European Commission the go-ahead to negotiate with Switzerland, EU finance ministers hope to push for the same rules to be applied to Switzerland as would be applicable to Austria and the wider European Union.UPDATE 1-EU to start talks with Switzerland on bank secrecy | Reuters

MARC FABER: 'Something Will Break Very Bad'

Faber: “What was the trigger of the ‘87 crash when markets fell 21 per cent in one day? What was the trigger of the Nasdaq crash in 2000? What was the trigger of Japanese crash of 1989? What was trigger of 2007 crash that brought global stocks down 50 per cent? We don’t know these things ahead of time, but something will always move markets up and something will always move them down. I would guess at the present time, given markets from the 2009 lows have in many cases increased by as much as 100 per cent, that they are no longer very cheap. .... Something could come along, geopolitically or otherwise. I would be very careful being overweight equities. I still have 25 per cent in equities and 25 per cent in corporate bonds.”

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/marc-faber-something-will-break-2013-5#ixzz2THYKymWI

Bond investors fear another 1994

http://money.cnn.com/video/investing/2013/05/13/investing-the-buzz-us-bonds.cnnmoney/index.html

Stocks and bonds under Fed pressure

The Federal Reserve and its bond buying program were a hot topic Monday, following aWall Street Journal report over the weekend that said central bank officials were considering an exit strategy for the massive stimulus measures that have been fueling the economy since late 2008. Stocks and bonds under Fed pressure - May. 13, 2013

Bloomberg snoops on users

Irked Goldman Sachs brass recently confronted Bloomberg LP over concerns reporters at the business news service have been using the company’s ubiquitous terminals to keep tabs on some employees of the Wall Street bank, The Post has learned.

The ability to spy on Bloomberg terminal users came to light recently when Goldman officials learned that at least one reporter at the news service had access to a wide array of information about customer usage, sources said.

In one instance, a Bloomberg reporter asked a Goldman executive if a partner at the bank had recently left the firm — noting casually that he hadn’t logged into his Bloomberg terminal in some time, sources added.

Goldman later learned that Bloomberg staffers could determine not only which of its employees had logged into Bloomberg’s proprietary terminals but also how many times they had used particular functions, insiders said.

The matter raised serious concerns for the firm about how secure information exchanged through the terminals within the firm actually was — and if the privacy of their business strategy had been compromised.

“You can basically see how many times someone has looked up news stories or if they used their messaging functions,” said one Goldman insider.

“It made us think, ‘Well, what else does [Bloomberg] have access to?’ ”

http://www.nypost.com/p/news/business/terminally_nosy_p5pSzsDkZzWJ2H7SqpFAPO?utm_source=SFnewyorkpost&utm_medium=SFnewyorkpost

Hungary will not use reserves to root out forex loans

May 9 (Reuters) - Hungary's central bank won't use its reserves to help households who owe trillions of forints worth in foreign currency loans, Governor Gyorgy Matolcsy told the weekly Heti Valasz.
Even after earlier relief programmes, hundreds of thousands of families remain exposed to swings in the forint's value after taking on euro and Swiss franc debt in a real estate boom.

Under Matolcsy, a former economy minister who took over from the hawkish Andras Simor in March, the bank has offered 250 billion forint ($1.1 billion) to help small firms with foreign currency loans.
But in the interview published on Thursday, Matolcsy gave a blunt "no" when asked if he could envisage using some of the bank's foreign currency reserves, worth 35.9 billion euros ($47.3 billion) at the end of April, to resolve the loans problem completely.

There were similar messages on Wednesday from Economy Ministry state secretary Zoltan Csefalvay, who said the government could do no more to help mortgage holders, and the central bank's managing director Marton Nagy, who said Hungary should bring in personal insolvency laws to help to deal with bad debts.
Hungary's large stock of foreign currency loans poses a major risk for central Europe's most indebted nation. It also limits the effectiveness of monetary policy because most household debt is denominated in Swiss francs or euros.

The bank has lowered interest rates in cautious quarter-point steps by a combined 225 basis points to a record low of 4.75 percent over the past nine months as inflation plunged to a 38-year low due to energy price cuts and weak demand.

Matolcsy affirmed his cautious policy stance in the interview, but added that he had discussed with bankers the idea of reducing interest rates "near consensus levels" in two or three bigger steps - an idea eventually abandoned.

"The overwhelming majority of leading bankers and strategic advisors recommended this approach (to avoid bigger cuts), and this is also closest to the conservative and responsible monetary policy that I advocate," Matolcsy was quoted as saying.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/05/09/hungary-centralbank-idUSL6N0DP2GT20130509?feedType=RSS&feedName=financialsSector

Euro fears grow as New Zealand and Sweden enter currency wars

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/05/08/ecb-asmussen-idUSF9N0C301N20130508?feedType=RSS&feedName=financialsSector May 8 (Reuters) - The bailout of Cyprus shows how urgently the euro zone needs to establish a banking union to break the negative feedback loop between weak banks and governments, European Central Bank Executive Board member Joerg Asmussen said on Wednesday.

Cyprus this year became the fourth euro zone country that needed to be bailed out by international lenders, and unlike any other aid deal it controversially forced depositors to foot the cost of recapitalising banks exposed to debt-crippled Greece.

http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/daily_briefing/daily_pieces/opening_comment/2013/05/08/Euro_Rises_as_Sweden_Threatens_to_Join_Currency_Wars.html The so-called currency wars progressed further in today’s session, as two new countries jumped on the bandwagon of selling or threatening to sell its own currency to unwind recent strength.

Overnight, RBNZ Governor Wheeler announced that the central bank had already once intervened in Forex markets to bring down the price of the New Zealand Dollar. During European trading hours, Swedish Finance Minister Borg said the Krona’s strength may become an issue for the country’s central bank.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/radical-fixes-needed-to-make-the-euro-work-2013-05-08 WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — If you’re ever tempted to think the euro zone has turned the corner and is on the right track, go have a chat with Warren Mosler and he’ll set you straight.

The former hedge-fund manager and an original proponent of what has come to be known as modern monetary theory gave a talk recently at a wealth management conference in Zurich that took a pessimistic view of the euro /quotes/zigman/4867933/sampled EURUSD +0.81%  righting itself on its current path.

“The European slow-motion train wreck will continue until there’s recognition that deficits need to be larger,” Mosler said at the conclusion of his analysis. “The continuing efforts at deficit reduction will continue to make things worse.”

Lenders May Create Bitcoin Rivals, Says New Zealand Bank Group

Commercial banks may create digital currencies to rival Bitcoin, the virtual money whose U.S. dollar value collapsed by 46 percent in 24 hours last month, the head of New Zealand’s banking lobby said today.

Banks noticed the low cost of international Bitcoin transfers, and some may look to introduce competitors as a cap on issuance constrains the digital currency’s supply, Kirk Hope, chief executive officer of the New Zealand Bankers’ Association, said according to the e-mailed transcript of an interview with TVNZ television.

“If it’s not Bitcoin it might be some other type of digital currency that could come into play,” Hope said. The cap on Bitcoin issuance, which limits supply to about 21 million units, “doesn’t mean that some other player couldn’t come into the market, and, you know, that might be a bank.”

Lenders May Create Bitcoin Rivals, Says New Zealand Bank Group - Bloomberg

Year of the yuan: China's explosive currency goes global

The ‘people’s currency’ of China is redefining the global economic monetary system. The closed-capital pariah is blossoming into a reserve standard and is hedging appeal against the indebted dollar and the untested euro, piquing foreign interest.

Degenerating credit quality across the board has prompted asset managers to shy away from the dollar, euro, Japanese yen, British pound, and Swiss franc. And some are turning to the yuan, a currency that 10 years ago was completely off limits to foreign investors.

An HSBC forecast projected that by 2015, the yuan will become one of the three most used currencies in global trade, in league with the dollar and euro. The report, issued in April, also foresees a third of China’s cross-border transactions being carried out in yuan.

http://rt.com/business/year-of-the-yuan-china-currency-goes-global-561/

U.S. Stocks Rise as ECB Cuts Rate, Jobless Claims Fall

U.S. stocks rose, with the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rebounding from the biggest drop in two weeks, as the European Central Bank cut its key interest rate and American jobless claims unexpectedly fell.

The S&P 500 advanced 0.2 percent to 1,586.32 at 9:32 a.m. in New York. The equity gauge lost 0.9 percent yesterday as U.S. payrolls and manufacturing grew less than forecast, trimming this year’s rally to 11 percent.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-05-02/u-s-stock-index-futures-advance-as-facebook-gains.html

Obama has a sweet retirement package. Will you?

FORTUNE -- President Obama's proposal to limit the value of 401(k)s, pensions, and other tax-favored retirement accounts to about $3.4 million certainly sounds reasonable. After all, at a time of big budget deficits, we shouldn't subsidize "the rich" with tax breaks, should we?

But when you look a little closer -- especially when you look at the value of President Obama's taxpayer-funded retirement benefits -- you might think a little differently about what "rich" means. For starters, the point at which Obama wants to eliminate your ability to deduct retirement account contributions isn't actually the $3.4 million in his budget proposal -- that's just an estimate. The real number is how much a couple age 62 would have to pay for an annuity that yields $205,000 a year. That $3.4 million -- which applies to the combined values of your pension and retirement accounts -- is subject to a sharp downward change in the future because annuity issuers charge significantly less for an annuity when interest rates are higher than they do today, with rates at rock-bottom levels.

MORE: What will cause the next financial crisis? Don't ask regulators.

I'll grant you that $205,000 a year -- the current IRS maximum for what a pension fund can pay a recipient -- is serious money in many places. But it doesn't buy you a rich retirement lifestyle in, say, Manhattan, N.Y., where 205K is equivalent to only 88K in Manhattan, Kans. The Manhattan-Manhattan distinction, from Money's cost-of-living comparator, is an example of the difference between being rich statistically and being rich in reality.

Second, I can't get past Obama wanting to limit savers to only about half the value of what he stands to get from his post-presidential package. Based on numbers from Vanguard Annuity Access, I value his package at more than $6.6 million. (My calculations are at the bottom of this piece.)

That's right, $6.6 million. And that doesn't include the IRAs in which Obama has been socking away the $50,000-a-year maximum, or the $18,000 (plus cost of living) a year he will get at age 62 for his service in the Illinois senate, or any other benefits he or his wife may realize from past or future jobs.

MORE: Apple proves that a lower corporate tax rate won't matter

http://finance.fortune.cnn.com/2013/05/01/obama-retirement-package/?iid=Lead

Slovenia Cut to Junk

Slovenia’s credit rating was cut to junk by Moody’s Investors Service, which cited “turmoil” in the country’s banking industry and said the government would have to offer lenders more financial support.

The rating was lowered two levels to Ba1 from Baa2, on par with Turkey, Moody’s said today, assigning a negative outlook. Five members of the 17-nation euro area are now rated junk by Moody’s. Standard & Poor’s and Fitch Ratings both rate Slovenia at A-, the fourth-lowest investment grade.

“The first key factor underpinning today’s rating action is the ongoing turmoil in the country’s banking system and the high likelihood that the sovereign will be required to provide further assistance and capital injections,” Moody’s said in an e-mailed statement from New York. “Asset quality at the banks deteriorated considerably in 2012 and has continued to deteriorate since.”

Slovenia, which before the rating action was on course to sell dollar-denominated benchmark bonds, is struggling with its second recession since 2009. The government is working to fix its ailing banking industry with a 900 million-euro ($1.2 billion) capital boost and the creation of a so-called bad bank to cleanse lenders’ balance sheets and aid economic recovery. A detailed overhaul plan is set to be presented to the European Commission in Brussels by May 9.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-04-30/slovenia-credit-rating-cut-to-junk-by-moody-s-on-banking-turmoil.html