Saturday, July 18, 2009

Swine Flu spreads through Britain, Australia, South America

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1200297/Swine-flu-mother-dies-giving-birth-leaving-premature-baby-fighting-life.html;jsessionid=E0E5701739994CCF63BA034E9DE5AC8C# vaccine fears

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2009-07/18/content_11728147.htm
RIO DE JANEIRO, July 17 (Xinhua) -- The Brazilian army will start patrolling the country's border with Argentina, Uruguay and Paraguay in a bid to contain the spread of the A/H1N1 flu, the government said Friday.

http://www.canberratimes.com.au/news/local/news/general/flu-puts-pregnant-women-in-intensive-care/1571432.aspx
Three pregnant women struck down with swine flu are in Canberra Hospital as the outbreak causes a record spike in demand for services and could lead to longer waits in casualty and for elective surgery.

EES FX Forum Swine Flu Thread http://eesfx.com/forexforum/index.php?option=com_fireboard&Itemid=131&func=view&catid=38&id=441#441

Friday, July 17, 2009

BUTTERFLIES, BLACK SWANS AND SWINE FLU

http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/SP446696.htm
SINGAPORE, April 27 (Reuters) - As the world grapples with the worst economic downturn in decades and the possibility of a flu pandemic, a growing body of research suggests the complexity of the modern global economy may make us more vulnerable than ever to catastrophe. BUTTERFLIES, BLACK SWANS AND SWINE FLU

One key issue is the so-called "butterfly effect" -- in highly complex systems, even a small event can be magnified and transmitted with highly unpredictable results. Edward Lorenz, a pioneer of chaos theory, noted that a butterfly flapping its wings in one corner of the world could cause a tornado far away.

Benoit Mandelbrot, a French mathematician and the father of fractal geometry, applied the theory to markets to show how "wild variability" is intrinsic to the system.

In network theory, one key finding is that complex interconnected systems organise themselves around key nodes. If one of these is hit, the whole house of cards can collapse.

This is one reason the damage done by the subprime crisis to major global investment banks had such a devastating impact.

And while specialisation in global supply chains has brought significant efficiency gains, it has also brought vulnerability. Disruption to a key node in the supply chain can cause dramatic and unpredictable turbulence in the whole system.

This was why global semiconductor prices nearly doubled following an earthquake that hit Taiwan in 1999, and why Hurricane Katrina spread turbulence throughout world markets.

Security analysts also worry that even a single terrorist attack could have a magnified impact if it targets a key point in global supply chains -- for example, a major port.

In his book "The Black Swan", which examines the impact of major unexpected events, Nassim Nicholas Taleb noted that the appearance of stability in complex systems can be illusory:

"Random insults to most parts of the network will not be consequential since they are likely to hit a poorly connected spot. But it also makes networks more vulnerable... Just consider what would happen if there is a problem with a major node.

"True, we have fewer failures," he wrote. "But when they occur... I shiver at the thought..."

DECLINE AND FALL OF ROMAN EMPIRE

The complexity that makes financial shocks more potentially dangerous also means that pandemics can wreak greater havoc.

Analysts point out that when the Black Death plague hit Europe in the 14th century, killing around a third of the population, society did not collapse, because economic and social systems were relatively simple and so insulated from shocks.

By contrast, a plague that hit the Roman empire in the 2nd century, with a similar death rate, caused chaos -- Roman society was much more complex and economically advanced.

In modern society, if key nodes are taken out by disease, the impact could be magnified exponentially. The "nodes" could be people essential to the functioning of society and the economy -- doctors, truck drivers, engineers, port workers.

And just as with financial crisis, herd behaviour, panic and the spread of inaccurate or incomplete information could provide negative feedback loops, making the catastrophe even worse.

"Economic disruptions on the supply side would come directly from high absenteeism... There may also be disruptions to transportation, trade, payment systems and major utilities," the IMF said in a 2006 report on the impact of a global flu pandemic.

And beyond the immediate catastrophe, an overriding risk from both the financial crisis and any pandemic is that it causes a worldwide retreat from globalisation, with profound long-term consequences for the world economy.

In its 2007 report on global risks, the World Economic Forum imagined the consequences of a simultaneous pandemic and global liquidity crisis -- a scenario that was purely speculative then but which now seems eerily prescient.

The result, it said, would be "a backlash against globalisation, which in turn compounds the hit on global demand". Across the world, it said, increased militarism and authoritarian tendencies would reshape global geopolitics.

The events of the next few months may show just how accurate such a scenario could be.

(Editing by Bill Tarrant)

http://www.popsci.com/stuart-fox/article/2008-10/case-emergency-breakdown#
A new paper suggests doctors and paramedics are not the only people who need immediate treatment in the case of pandemic flu; and acting as such may put society in grave danger

http://www.staffnurse.com/nursing-news-articles/flu-deaths-rise-as-britain-moves-to-self-diagnosis-3639.html
Flu Deaths Rise As Britain Moves To Self-Diagnosis

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=atdwXqVC1x4I
July 17 (Bloomberg) -- Swine flu has taken root across the globe faster than any previous influenza pandemic, and its full force may strike the U.S. earlier than the typical flu season, health officials said.

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/life_and_style/health/article6718690.ece


International pressure may break British vaccine deals

http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/cidrap/content/influenza/swineflu/biofacts/swinefluoverview.html Novel H1N1 Influenza (Swine Flu)


 

Tuesday, July 14, 2009

Goldman posts record profits

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a2jo3RK2_Aps July 14 (Bloomberg) -- Goldman Sachs Group Inc. posted record earnings as revenue from trading and stock underwriting reached all-time highs less than a year after the firm took $10 billion in U.S. rescue funds.

Friday, July 10, 2009

Chevron looses $400 Million on Foreign Exchange losses due to weakness of US Dollar

http://ca.news.finance.yahoo.com/s/09072009/2/biz-finance-chevron-says-q2-earnings-lifted-oil-prices-overall.html
For those same two months, the company said results from its overseas exploration and production operations included unfavourable foreign currency effects of more than $400 million. The reason, Chevron said, was the weakening U.S. dollar against most other major currencies, and it said the trend continued in June.

Media and Traders coming down hard on Goldman

http://blog.themistrading.com/ Themis Trading Blog

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2009/07/bloomberg-is-coming-down-hard-on.html
The video linked below is a must-see piece of journalistic skepticism. The duo at Bloomberg News are discussing the recent alleged theft of trading code by a former Goldman employee Sergey Aleynikov who moved to a hedge fund called Citadel.  Their commentary is incredulous.  Their tone seems to ask: "Is the Government working for Goldman now?"

Here are a few gems:

  • "What is Goldman Sachs doing with this trading code that could manipulate the markets?"
  • "And Goldman got on the phone to the Justice Department and got them so fast to nail this guy, it's almost - you wonder if they have a red line to the government."
  • "It is amazing within one day of Goldman calling they had FBI agents at his driveway doing surveillance.  The next day they arrested him…"
  • "It's interesting that the prosecutor from the testimony that I've read, it almost sounds as if he's working at Goldman Sachs."

http://www.alternet.org/workplace/141106/taibbi%3A_new_secrecy_rule_lets_goldman_sachs_control_stock_prices_unmolested_by_public_scrutiny/
Taibbi: New Secrecy Rule Lets Goldman Sachs Control Stock Prices Unmolested by Public Scrutiny

Executive Order 12631 was signed on March 18, 1988 by then-President Ronald Reagan, after the biggest one-day market loss in history -- also known as 'Black Monday' -- when the Dow Jones Industrial average dropped 508 points on October 19, 1987. Executive Order 12631 created the "Plunge Protection Team," a working group that was designed to keep the markets operating in the event of a sudden plunge in stock prices.

http://www.americanchronicle.com/articles/view/109475

http://www.time.com/time/business/article/0,8599,1908562,00.html?iid=tsmodule


Goldman Sachs vs. Rolling Stone: A Wall Street Smackdown

Goldman Sachs is a giant pig. A giant pig that blows bubbles through a wand shaped like a dollar sign. A giant pig that laughs at us when we invest in worthless dotcom stocks. A giant pig that happily watches us get carried away and burned by rising home prices. A giant pig that smiles widely when we have to fill our tanks with $4-a-gallon gas. Quite simply, the investment bank that is revered on Wall Street could just be a bunch of crooks, and greedy ones at that.


 


 


 

Thursday, July 9, 2009

Goldman’s Doomsday Black Box exposed

http://www.reuters.com/article/ousivMolt/idUSTRE5667JR20090707
CHICAGO (Reuters) - In the world of automated trading, fortunes are made in less than the blink of an eye.

That wealth is generated on computer systems that can handle greater trading volumes at ever increasing speeds. These platforms often rely on algorithms -- a sequence of instructions used for calculation and data processing -- that can spot unseen opportunities in the market and give their users a huge advantage measured in milliseconds.

For banks such as Goldman Sachs Group Inc (GS.N), the codes are worth a fortune and this value also make them a tempting target for thieves -- as appears to have happened with Sergey Aleynikov, a former computer programer at Goldman arrested by the U.S. Federal Bureau of Investigation last Friday.

"The risks of trying to steal a trading model are very high," said David Easthope, a senior analyst at Celent, which is part of the Oliver Wyman Group. "But the potential reward is very, very high because when you look at investment banks, they've made higher and higher profits" from automated trading.

Goldman in particular has had a "great last few months" thanks to a trading model that has enabled it to "take the right risk at the right time," Easthope added.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124688855704700671.html
A Goldman Sachs Group Inc. computer programmer who quit last month was arrested and charged with stealing codes related to a high-speed trading program that he helped develop.

The programmer, Sergey Aleynikov, 39 years old, was arrested Friday by Federal Bureau of Investigation agents as he got off a plane at Newark Liberty International Airport. According to a complaint filed Saturday, Mr. Aleynikov downloaded 32 megabytes of data from Goldman's computer system with "the intent to convert that trade secret to the economic benefit of someone other than the owner."

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/07/07/alleged-goldman-spy-serge_n_226965.html If it sounds odd, well, it is. At one point, Aleynikov is set up on a date with a man in drag, and appears to pay a matchmaker to find him a woman who, he says, "must be over 21."

Entitled "Love Story," the video's sound has been stripped out, though there are a few title cards describing the action. Dealbreaker suggests that some higher-up intentionally removed the sound on the clip.

Wednesday, July 8, 2009

FXDD responds to FOREX Witch Hunt

By now you are probably well aware that NFA has made a new rule that prohibits US Forex Dealer Members from carrying customer accounts with opposing positions in the same account past the end of the trading day ("no -hedging"). The rule also requires all positions to be closed in historical order, otherwise known as 'first in first out' (FIFO). There has been wide speculation among user groups what these changes may bring, how they are going to affect the Metatrader platform, how automated trading scripts are going to be affected (Expert Advisors) and what retail trading is going to look like in the future.
 
The 'No-Hedging' rule has been in effect for over a month now and as many of you can attest most of the statements of "doom and gloom" have been highly exaggerated. The FIFO rule implementation has been extended once already and there is continuous talks amongst all companies, platform vendors (software companies), and NFA as to what will be permitted and how things should be working out. In the midst of these changes some dealers have decided to use the rule changes as a selling point for their offshore service centers. They try to amplify the uncertainty and to play on the customers' fears. It is unclear if they are well equipped to maintain a properly operating MT4 platform in these jurisdictions. Most of them have very little history of operating one. It is certain though that it would be costly and inconvenient to close everything and move an account to an untested firm.
 
In the wake of all this speculation we at FXDD would like to assure you once again that we will do our best to make sure you can continue trading without having to worry about how things may change for you. We are working with the platform vendors, carefully examining all possible options, and working diligently with NFA on the progress of our membership. Our advice is not to make hasty assumptions based on the loose talk from people who spread rumors. If we are to make any further changes to our platforms we will make sure you are informed well in advance and you are given all possible options to consider. We will also try and keep you updated on a regular basis to let you know what our plans are.

Thanks as always for being a FXDD customer.

Sincerely,
The FXDD Team

75 Park Place, 4th Floor, New York, NY 10007
Toll-free in the US: +1-866-367-3933 or +1-212-791-3933.

JPY rises with little media coverage, G8 meeting, China Reserve Currency, Cyberattack hits NYSE

http://seekingalpha.com/article/147668-is-the-floor-caving-under-usd-jpy The 95 price level for USD/JPY has served as very strong support over the past few months and now that the currency pair is trading well below that price level, it appears that the floor is caving in.

http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/20090708/jpy-advances-on-safe-haven-gains.htm JPY Advances on Safe Haven Gains

4cast - FX NOW! USD/JPY, EUR/JPY Flows - JPY surges across the board through stops

Wednesday, July 08, 2009 11:35:00 AM

* 08 Jul 09: 15:35 GMT (NYC) - FX NOW! USD/JPY, EUR/JPY Flows - JPY surges across the board through stops

After the London fixing JPY has surged across the board with what started as a decline in the S&P futures the sent the rate through stops at 93.90 and through even more on the way down to 92.76. The move looks rather painful for the TFX investors who are short JPY. SI

* 08 Jul 09: 15:10 GMT (LDN) - FX NOW! EUR/USD, USD/JPY Flows - EUR sold off at fixing, JPY rallies as equities slide

EUR suffered more than most at the regular 16:00 bst fixing today. Activity has been at a very low level during the entire session and the downtick on EUR/USD and USD/JPY at the fixing is likely to reflect minimal order imbalances. While the EUR was for sale at the fixing, the decline in equities that came at about the same time helped JPY climb, sending USD/JPY down through the 94.00 level, setting off stops at 93.90 and touching lows of 93.75. M.B.

* 08 Jul 09: 14:44 GMT (LDN) - COMMODITIES NOW! OIL Flows - EIA data was mixed, but crude price were already under pressure

Crude inventories dipped and gasoline stocks climbed. The news did little to interrupt the price action in crude oil futures that have been on the way down. Pressure has been exerted by the USD's advance, the weaker prospects for growth implied by the equity market decline and the ongoing G8 and CFTC rhetoric regarding speculative crude oil trading and position limits.

* 08 Jul 09: 14:42 GMT (NYC) - FX NOW! USD/CAD, EUR/CAD Flows - Modest bounce after EIA inventory data

USD/CAD has seen good two-way interest so far in the session, but offers took over in the N.Am morning to push USD/CAD below 1.1600 to lows of 1.1589. However, buyers have found a decent opportunity to retrace losses after the release of EIA inventory data showing a slightly higher than expected draw in crude stocks of 2.9mn barrels (2.4 mn expected) being offset by a larger than expected rise in gasoline inventories (+1.9mn vs 0.6mn expected) and distillates during the key driving season. USD/CAD has bounced through 1.1620 in reaction to a drop in crude futures and equities, but the high of 1.1682 is still a stretch. SI

* 08 Jul 09: 14:24 GMT (LDN) - FX NOW! GBP/USD, EUR/GBP Flows - GBP trading is tentative in advance of Thurs BoE release

GBP trading has lacked its usual price swings that tend to keep speculators busy and dealers attentive. In advance of the close of the BoE meeting on Thursday, with the bank expected to leave official rates unchanged at 0.50%, the only excitement that may be generated in the wake of the meeting is the potential announcement that the BoE's QE program would be expanded from the current total of GBP125 bln up to GBP150 bln. A more aggressive QE program is likely to soften GBP and it seems obvious now that the market is not interested in doing anything until the bank announces its intentions. M.B.

DOTS TO CONNECT:

  1. G8 Meeting http://www.reuters.com/article/usDollarRpt/idUSL129307120090701
    China requests reserve currency debate at G8 -sources
  2. USD collapses against JPY http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/20090708/jpy-advances-on-safe-haven-gains.htm
    1. http://www.thestreet.com/story/10537620/1/report-cyber-attack-hit-nyse-white-house.html?cm_ven=GOOGLEN NYSE hit

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aqA9QhRSNeqM
Yuan Deposes Dollar on China Border in Sign of Future (Update1)

Tuesday, July 7, 2009

US Regulators clamp down on commodities markets

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=adrp0JTQiJG8 July 7 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. regulators say they may clamp down on oil and gas price speculators by limiting the holdings of energy futures traders, including index and exchange-traded funds.

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission will hold hearings this month and next to explore the need for government-imposed restrictions on speculative trading in oil, gas and other energy markets, Chairman Gary Gensler said today in a statement.

http://www.smartbrief.com/news/ata/storyDetails.jsp?issueid=641587EC-1FC3-49E6-A0CB-BC39343B26A2&copyid=013966BF-6310-478E-8EFD-572D96F172CD
Chairman Gary Gensler announced today that the Commodity Futures Trading Commission will hold hearings this summer to consider imposing position limits for energy commodities, including oil and natural gas. In addition, it will begin publishing how much hedge funds and other financial firms are trading in oil and other commodities, with an eye toward curbing what critics say is speculation that pushes up prices. Wall Street Journal, The (07/07) Bloomberg (07/07) MarketWatch (07/07) Reuters (07/07) Washington Post, The (07/07)

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124696097259205141.html?mod=dist_smartbrief
WASHINGTON -- U.S. commodities regulators, in an effort to crack down on excessive speculation, plan to propose sweeping trading limits on oil, natural gas and possibly other commodities.

Friday, July 3, 2009

VPS for FOREX Traders and Online Professionals

VPS for FOREX Traders and Online Professionals

VPS – Virtual Private Server

FOREX trading is an internet intensive business. A VPS (Virtual Private Server) is a computer in a remote data center that traders access from their home or work PC. The advantages of using a VPS or fully dedicated remote server are many:

  • Automated trading systems are run from the server. In the case of any internet outage, trading will not be impacted.
  • Key files such as Expert Advisors, strategy test reports, strategy parameters, and other important files can be stored on the server for remote access.
  • Teams of traders can collaborate on strategies or trade from one consolidated location using software such as Radmin. Instead of emailing strategy updates to a group, all participants can modify files and work from one consolidated location.
  • Run server software such as Microsoft Project Server, Microsoft Exchange, and other Office Server technologies without the headache of having to setup your own server.
  • Access your trading server while travelling. Have the full power of a server with the mobility of a laptop, using Windows Remote Desktop Connection or Radmin.
  • Use the server to backup files
  • Run an FTP server for corporate files or trading strategies

These facilities are usually in hardened facilities with multiple redundant power and network backups. When leasing a dedicated or virtual dedicated server, you are piggybacking on their investment in infrastructure. Anyone could build their own hardened facility in their backyard, but don't think it can be done for less than $250,000. Just the purchasing of a power generator can run from $2,500 to $10,000 and more, and still would only offer a small amount of power extension time comparing with those purchased by server facilities.

FOREX Trading is not the only use of such facilities; in fact any online business can utilize VPS technologies. For example, a VPS could be used to make regular backups of strategic corporate files. Physical backup systems can be expensive and human error can result in the incorrect backup of critical data.

Running any online business, including working professionals, need a suite of robust internet related services. A virtual office is your online office where you can access your business from wherever you are.

FX System Hosting offers internet services in addition to VPS and dedicated servers such as:

  • Domain names, Certified Registration, Business Registration
  • Web Hosting, Site Analytics, Search Engine Visibility
  • SSL Certificates, Code Signing Certificates
  • Email accounts, CRM, Express Email Marketing
  • Marketing Tools, Logo Design, Fax thru Email
  • Design services , Website Design

An account at FX System Hosting will allow you to consolidate your online purchases with one source offering a plethora of online services and products under one account. FX System Hosting offers one of the most competitive pricing mechanisms on the market, with offers such as $1.99 .COM domain names and $19.99 .EU domain names.

Any order of a Dedicated Server from FX System Hosting includes free Elite Expert Trader EA package ($99 retail value) and free installation and setup ($149 value) – mention offer code EA20092B.

www.fxsystemhosting.com

Thursday, June 25, 2009

FBAR (Foreign Bank and Financial Accounts) due June 30th

http://www.irs.gov/businesses/small/article/0,,id=148845,00.html

FAQs Regarding Report of Foreign Bank and Financial Accounts (FBAR)

  

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