New York Commercial Real Estate Collapse

Dollar weakness, curious comments from Japan

Wednesday, October 14, 2009 11:35:00 PM

* 15 Oct 09: 03:35 GMT (SGA) - FX NOW! USD/JPY, GBP/JPY Flows - MoF Fujii (after Minezaki yest): stable FX important

Alas! Some comments from MoF Fujii after "curious" comments from MoF Naoki Minezaki yesterday. MoF Hirohisa Fujii says stable FX is important both domestically and internationally - Jiji- Reuters. On FX, USD/JPY at 89.40-43, with MoF seen cautious of USD/JPY breaking toward 88.00 handle and January 87.10-12 lows - lows since 1995 - even as MoF Minezaki comments yesterday that no need to intervene when JPY rises, pushed USD/JPY from 89.30 to 88.83 - something which MoF Fujii may not want? USD/JPY bids at 89.00-20, offers still 89.80-90.00, stops on break of 90.00-05.WL

* 15 Oct 09: 03:31 GMT (SGA) - FX NOW! GBP/JPY, USD/JPY Flows - USD/JPY offers 90.00; but Cross/JPY demand to push it over

USD/JPY at 89.44-46, capped by exporters, Asian selling, but supported on back of Cross/JPY demand - with higher Aussie, Kiwi, and Euro, including Cable supporting Cross/JPY. Offer 90.00, stops above 90.00 level, while bids at 89.00-20 on the downside. Talks M.E. accounts, real money have been good buyers on dips, not surprised to hear more support at 88.50-60. GBP/JPY edging back up, to 143.55-65, while Cable up at 1.6050-55, as BoE MPC Paul Fisher rejects market views that BoE is talking down Cable to boost exports. GBP/JPY Bids at 143 lows, eye stops above 144.00. WL

US Dollar Crashes Through Major Support Level

Posted: Oct 14 2009     By: Dan Norcini      Post Edited: October 14, 2009 at 12:51 am

Dear Friends,

This evening in Asian trade, the Japanese Minister of Finance once again restated the new view out of Japan that the level of the Yen is no longer an obsession with the monetary authorities of that nation. His comments were interpreted by the Forex markets that intervention to stem the advance of the Yen is most unlikely. With that, market participants wasted little time bidding the Yen into a strong advance.

Those statements of his, combined with that of Federal Reserve Vice Chairman, Donald Kohn, that the US economy would not experience a quick or sharp recovery out of its recession, were both read by traders that US interest rates were not going anywhere anytime soon. Carry traders then beat the Dollar down below critical support near the 76 level on the USDX as they rushed into higher yielding currencies such as the Aussie and Loonie. The Euro also shot up to another new yearly high.

It is looking more and more like the current Administration has set on a course of deliberate destruction of the US Dollar and with it, the economic might that the US has enjoyed since post World War II. As said many times on the pages of this web site, the profligacy of the US has inescapable consequences and we are now seeing a rapid acceleration of the same. The fall in the Dollar is picking up momentum and that is why we are witnessing gold moving into new highs.

But gold is more than a Dollar phenomenon – Gold priced in terms of British Pounds and in Euros is relentlessly moving higher as both Great Britain and Europe, the fading West, are debasing their currencies as well.

Protect yourself from the theft of your wealth by these conscienceless politicians and monetary officials for they have sold their citizenry down the river and plundered them in the process far more thoroughly than Attila and his army of Huns ever did to Rome of old. At least the Roman inhabitants were aware of the rape and pillaging of their substance – when the general public finally awakens to the despicable looting of their treasures by these reeking buzzards, they will rush into gold with a fury that will shock even many of the readers of this site.

Click chart to enlarge this evening's action in the US Dollar in PDF format with commentary from Trader Dan Norcini

Seeking Alpha: Is the world conspiring against the US Dollar?

http://seekingalpha.com/article/165092-is-the-world-conspiring-against-the-u-s-dollar It is not unusual to see the U.S. dollar down against the Canadian dollar, and other currencies, on a day when stock market indexes are rallying. In the old days of this stock market recovery, this action would be attributed to investors leaving the safety of U.S. Treasuries and embracing risk overseas.

However, on Tuesday, the U.S. dollar's downturn is being blamed on something a little scarier: The Independent newspaper has a scoop whose headline says it all: "The demise of the dollar."

http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=CNG.e272eaa74dccc30f21c6ff7638b0f37b.461&show_article=1

The United Nations called on Tuesday for a new global reserve currency to end dollar supremacy which has allowed the United States the "privilege" of building a huge trade deficit.

"Important progress in managing imbalances can be made by reducing the reserve currency country?s 'privilege' to run external deficits in order to provide international liquidity," UN undersecretary-general for economic and social affairs, Sha Zukang, said.

Speaking at the annual meetings of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank in Istanbul, he said: "It is timely to emphasise that such a system also creates a more equitable method of sharing the seigniorage derived from providing global liquidity."

He said: "Greater use of a truly global reserve currency, such as the IMF?s special drawing rights (SDRs), enables the seigniorage gained to be deployed for development purposes," he said.

The SDRs are the asset used in IMF transactions and are based on a basket of four currencies -- the dollar, euro, yen and pound -- which is calculated daily.

China had called in March for a new dominant world reserve currency instead of the dollar, in a system within the framework of the Washington-based IMF.

New Currency Announced – Dollar Alternative

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/the-demise-of-the-dollar-1798175.html

The demise of the dollar

In a graphic illustration of the new world order, Arab states have launched secret moves with China, Russia and France to stop using the US currency for oil trading

The demise of the dollar

In a graphic illustration of the new world order, Arab states have launched secret moves with China, Russia and France to stop using the US currency for oil trading

Roubini warns stock markets have risen too fast as Fujii Japanese Finance Minister warns against JPY rise

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aM2YCVc3cUOI Oct. 5 (Bloomberg) -- New York University Professor Nouriel Roubini, who predicted the financial crisis, said stock and commodity markets may drop in coming months as the gradual pace of the economic recovery disappoints investors.

"Markets have gone up too much, too soon, too fast," Roubini said in an interview in Istanbul on Oct. 3. "I see the risk of a correction, especially when the markets now realize that the recovery is not rapid and V-shaped, but more like U- shaped. That might be in the fourth quarter or the first quarter of next year."

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=ajTxz9pHQaNw Oct. 5 (Bloomberg) -- Japanese Finance Minister Hirohisa Fujii issued his clearest warning yet that his nation is open to intervening in the currency market even as the Group of Seven declined to criticize the tumbling dollar.

"If currencies show some excessive moves in a biased direction, we will take action," Fujii said Oct. 3 in Istanbul after a meeting of G-7 finance ministers and central bankers. He declined to say if the yen is now trading in such a way.

Socialnomics: Social Media Revolution

TONY Blair is set to be made the first President of Europe in weeks, The Sun can reveal.

http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/2663036/Tony-Blair-to-head-the-EU-within-weeks.html

TONY Blair is set to be made the first President of Europe in weeks, The Sun can reveal.

The essence of the banking industry

Democratic Fundraiser Gets 24 Years For Fraud

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=113318532

Former Democratic fundraiser Norman Hsu was sentenced to more than 24 years in prison Tuesday by a judge who accused him of funding his fraud with a "conniving use of the political process."

U.S. District Judge Victor Marrero sentenced Hsu to 20 years in prison for his guilty plea to fraud charges and another four years and four months in prison for his conviction at trial for breaking campaign finance laws.

The judge said Hsu stole more than $50 million from hundreds of investors in a 10-year fraud by winning their confidence with a pristine reputation, even as he ripped them off in a complex Ponzi scheme, a recipe that the judge noted fits many white-collar crimes.

He called Hsu a "wolf in sheep's clothing."

He said his "conniving use of the political process to fund his fraud" made his crimes "much more sinister and reprehensible."

USD Index Flows

FX NOW! USD Index Flows - IMF snapshot shows USD drops as % of total reserves in Q2 2009
Wednesday, September 30, 2009 12:17:00 PM



* 30 Sep 09: 16:16 GMT (LDN) - FX NOW! USD Index Flows - IMF snapshot shows USD drops as % of total reserves in Q2 2009


A report that may be of some interest has come over Reuters. the IMF released a report that during Q2 2009, USD as a percentage of total reserves fell from 65% to 62.8%. The decline comes in the context of a climb in total reserves during the quarter by 4.8% to USD6.8 trln. The chart above shows what the USD Index did during the time period highlighted. It is worth noting that the USD index has continued to fall, which may suggest that whatever is happening to total reserves, the USD is likely to be an even smaller percentage once the Q3 data is compiled and released. M.B.


* 30 Sep 09: 15:35 GMT (NYC) - FX NOW! AUD/USD, USD/CAD Flows - Crude oil bounce helping commodity currencies


Since the release of what was a mixed bag on the EIA inventory data report, crude oil rallied to USD68.45 from USD66.25 and has helped commodity currencies AUD and CAD take back losses. In terms of the EIA data, the report showed a larger than expected rise in crude stocks while gasoline fell further than expected and distillates were up by less than anticipated. Equities are now starting to drift off lows but will need more momentum to break AUD/USD's high of 0.8837 and USD/CAD's 1.0712 low. SI


* 30 Sep 09: 15:11 GMT (NYC) - FX NOW! EUR/USD, GBP/USD Flows - No great excitement at fixing


No great excitement on EUR or GBP at the month/quarter end fixing. Cable is off lows of 1.5946 but bounce is not gathering much steam. EUR is near 1.4620/30 as equities hover near lows, but eye crude oil which has advanced in the wake of the EIA inventory report and could boost energy sector stocks (and the overall index), which would thereby give EUR a nudge. SI

Volcker Criticizes Obama Plan on ‘Systemically Important’ Firms

http://bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601070&sid=aKPBxT0cjj5E
Sept. 24 (Bloomberg) -- Former Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker criticized the Obama administration's plan to subject "systemically important" financial firms to more stringent regulation by the Fed.

Volcker told lawmakers today that such a designation would imply government readiness to support the firms in a crisis, encouraging even more risky behavior in a phenomenon known as "moral hazard."

Are We Real? Insights for evolution

FOMC Statement The Committee will maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent.

FOMC Statement

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in August suggests that economic activity has picked up following its severe downturn. Conditions in financial markets have improved further, and activity in the housing sector has increased. Household spending seems to be stabilizing, but remains constrained by ongoing job losses, sluggish income growth, lower housing wealth, and tight credit. Businesses are still cutting back on fixed investment and staffing, though at a slower pace; they continue to make progress in bringing inventory stocks into better alignment with sales. Although economic activity is likely to remain weak for a time, the Committee anticipates that policy actions to stabilize financial markets and institutions, fiscal and monetary stimulus, and market forces will support a strengthening of economic growth and a gradual return to higher levels of resource utilization in a context of price stability.

With substantial resource slack likely to continue to dampen cost pressures and with longer-term inflation expectations stable, the Committee expects that inflation will remain subdued for some time.

In these circumstances, the Federal Reserve will continue to employ a wide range of tools to promote economic recovery and to preserve price stability. The Committee will maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and continues to anticipate that economic conditions are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period. To provide support to mortgage lending and housing markets and to improve overall conditions in private credit markets, the Federal Reserve will purchase a total of $1.25 trillion of agency mortgage-backed securities and up to $200 billion of agency debt. The Committee will gradually slow the pace of these purchases in order to promote a smooth transition in markets and anticipates that they will be executed by the end of the first quarter of 2010. As previously announced, the Federal Reserve's purchases of $300 billion of Treasury securities will be completed by the end of October 2009. The Committee will continue to evaluate the timing and overall amounts of its purchases of securities in light of the evolving economic outlook and conditions in financial markets. The Federal Reserve is monitoring the size and composition of its balance sheet and will make adjustments to its credit and liquidity programs as warranted.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Elizabeth A. Duke; Charles L. Evans; Donald L. Kohn; Jeffrey M. Lacker; Dennis P. Lockhart; Daniel K. Tarullo; Kevin M. Warsh; and Janet L. Yellen.

http://www.frbatlanta.org/invoke.cfm?objectid=E83004B9-5056-9F12-126EED5322A86646&method=display

FX Markets in stop hunting mode

* 23 Sep 09: 00:52 GMT (SGA) - FX NOW! USD/JPY, EUR/JPY Flows - USD back up as market in hunt for stops, above 91.00

Markets in "stoploss hunting mode" - with USD/JPY stops below 90.80-90, and EUR stops/options above 1.4825 taken out - now the reverse is happening. Sell USD earlier on stops, now market players are buying back USD on short-squeeze in lack of fresh news. USD/JPY up at 90.89-90, up from 90.47-50 lows, eye stoploss above 91.00, the level where huge US investment, funds sellers started the morning sales. EUR/USD stops below 1.4780/ 1.4750 now as market now after running into good offers ahead of 1.4850 barriers after charging to 1-year highs of 1.4840-43 from 1.4800-10. EUR/JPY at 134.45-50, off its lows of 134.10-13, eye test of 135.00 on short-squeeze in USD/JPY again. WL

Collective2.com Trading Volume Surges 1,000% to $11.65 Billion

http://preview.collective2.com/pressreleases/C2_pr_20090804.pdf

Contact: Michael Robinson

510-428-2167

New York -- Aug. 4, 2009 -- In a sign of the continued flight of

investors from high-priced money managers to do-it-yourself Internet

investing, Collective2.com today announced that it facilitated a record

$3.6 billion in self-directed trades in June 2009, roughly a 10-fold

increase from the year before.

For the first six months of this year, the nominal value of financial

instruments traded through Collective2.com totaled $11.65 billion.

That compares with about $1.1 billion in the similar 2008 period. Also

during the period, registered users grew 25 percent to 32,000.

Collective2.com acts as an online repository for automated trading

systems. The site allows any investor with an Internet connection to

select from nearly 9,000 trading systems that have been developed

by mathematicians and traders from around the world. Once an

investor selects his systems, trades are automatically placed in the

customerʼs regular brokerage account.

A trading system is a set of formulas and rules that generate buy and sell

recommendations based on price, volume or other data. Collective2.com

trading systems cover stocks, options, futures and foreign exchange.

"Were seeing more investors flee from so-called professional money

managersʼ and decide they can do better, and pay less, while

maintaining complete control over their brokerage accounts," said

Matthew Klein, President of Collective2. "At Collective2, an investor

with only $10,000 can have access to the same high-end automated

trading strategies as a money manager running a $100 million

portfolio."

The Collective2 automated trading platform is completely transparent.

Funds remain in the customers brokerage account. The customer

alone selects which trading strategies are automated in his account

and can see, in real time, exactly which trades are being placed