Thursday, October 16, 2008

Bretton Woods 3

EU leaders weigh overhaul of Western financial foundations

BRUSSELS: Shaken by the financial meltdown and plunging markets, leaders of the world's economic powers said Wednesday that they favored an ambitious campaign to revamp the structures that have governed global finance for more than 60 years.

Officials from Britain, France and Germany, meeting before a summit meeting here of European Union leaders, said they approved of convening a conference in November or December aimed at revising the system put in place toward the end of the World War II.

In a statement issued Wednesday, the Group of 8, which also includes the United States, Japan, Canada, Italy and Russia, said it looked forward to a meeting "to adopt an agenda for reforms to meet the challenges of the 21st century."

Prime Minister Gordon Brown of Britain, regarded as the architect of a rescue package agreed upon Sunday by the euro-zone countries, said the world needed to alter the institutions that were created by the 1944 Bretton Woods conference and that have governed global finance. Brown also called for reviving the talks on global trade that broke down in July.

President George W. Bush has said he was in favor of a summit meeting on global financial institutions and wants to attend even if it takes place after the presidential election on Nov. 4, said European diplomats who asked not to be identified. The thinking was that the main economies would also hold a separate meeting with the U.S. president-elect if he were available before Inauguration Day on Jan. 20.

The EU meeting Wednesday was dominated by the fallout from the banking crisis and by fears of a recession. One consequence of that concern was a growing threat to Europe's ambitious plans to cut carbon dioxide emissions by 20 percent by 2020.

Poland led a rebellion by a group of nations threatening to block the conclusions of the meeting unless there was an agreement to abandon the December deadline for reaching an accord on a climate-change package. Eight East European nations want the EU to ease targets for greenhouse-gas cuts because of the economic crisis. Italy has also aired concerns, calling for an impact study of the effects on the real economy.

The meeting began with a bizarre feud between Prime Minister Donald Tusk of Poland and the country's euro-skeptic president, Lech Kaczynski. Denied a seat on Tusk's plane, Kaczynski chartered his own and crashed the meeting, provoking a diplomatic incident.

But the meeting saw consensus on the need to make financial changes. France, which holds the EU's rotating presidency, said it hoped that almost all 27 nations would endorse the principles agreed on by the euro-zone on Sunday.

Big nations rallied behind the notion of a "Bretton Woods II" conference. "I think there is a general agreement there should be an international leaders' meeting," Brown said before the start of the meeting. The agenda, he added, would be "far-reaching reform of the international financial system" and global trade talks.

Brown also called for changes at the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, which he said were "built for the circumstances of 60 years ago." He urged the creation of an early warning system for the international economy and greater supervision of multinational companies.

He suggested that the IMF work more closely with the Financial Stability Forum, which was convened in April 1999 to promote the exchange of information and international co-operation in financial supervision and surveillance.

Prime Minister François Fillon of France, meanwhile, said, "The financial system is suffering a heart attack" and added that it would be "irresponsible" not to consider ambitious international changes "after the financial hurricane that has been hitting the world."

As the effort Sunday to coordinate European action in the financial crisis appeared to calm the markets for a time, José Manuel Barroso, the president of the European Commission, argued Wednesday that attention should shift to longer-term changes.

"We see light at the end of the tunnel but we are not there yet," he said. "Once we have put financial markets back on their feet, we must ensure that in the future they function properly for the benefit of citizens and businesses, rather than themselves."

The European Commission, meanwhile, has proposed changing accounting rules so assets do not have to be revalued so often, and plans to pass laws that will legalize the commitments made to guarantee bank deposits in Europe of up to €50,000, about $67,000, rising to €100,000 in time.

Proposals to govern executive pay and to regulate hedge funds are also being weighed.

But there was no indication Wednesday that Britain would drop its opposition to one important proposal from the European Commission - a so-called capital requirements directive. The proposal would require financial institutions to retain at least the equivalent of 5 percent of the capital value of an asset that they securitize.

Several EU officials, meanwhile, said they were worried that some countries might use the crisis to try to change long-established rules that block state aid to ailing companies, a central pillar of the EU's internal market.

Inside Details of Sequoia Capital’s Doomsday Meeting With its Companies

http://gigaom.com/2008/10/09/what-startups-can-learn-from-sequoias-doomsday-warning/

Inside Details of Sequoia Capital's Doomsday Meeting With its Companies

Om Malik

, Thursday, October 9, 2008 at 11:27 AM PT Comments (68)

Updated with the Sequoia powerpoint: Last night I reported on a special meeting held by Sequoia Capital for its portfolio companies, warning them about the fiscal hurricane that was going to hit them, and how they'd better figure out ways to survive what could be a big downturn.

There were some gaps in the details about that meeting, but I have since been able to piece together the minutes and what folks there essentially said. Since these are second-sourced details, I cannot say they are a 100 percent accurate, so please view them with a degree of skepticism. Nevertheless, I still feel confident enough to share them.

These were the four speakers:

Mike Moritz, General Partner, Sequoia Capital, who moderated the speakers. The speakers were Eric Upin, Partner, Sequoia Capital, who until recently ran the $26-billion Stanford Endowment Fund, and Michael Partner, Sequoia Capital, who was Sequoia's very first hedge fund manager and worked at Maverick Capital and Robertson Stephens. The last speaker was, as I mentioned before, Doug Leone, General Partner, Sequoia Capital.

Moritz Musings

Mike Mortiz kicked off the proceedings by saying that these are drastic times and that means drastic measures must be taken to survive. His message to companies was don't worry about getting ahead, instead, "We're talking survive. Get this point into your heads." He warned that companies need to be cash-flow positive, and if they are not, then they need to get there now, because raising capital without being cash-flow positive is going to be tough. He was warning that there will be a price to pay for those who hesitate to act.

Upin Says

Upin, who knows a thing or two about money and markets, told the room that we are in the beginning of a long cycle, what he called a "secular bear market." This could be a 15-year problem, he said. This comment was accompanied by many slides that showed historical charts of previous recessions averaging 17-year cycles. He pointed out that the issue here is not the equity markets but the credit market, and that will take a long time to recover. He was ominous in warning the startups that this is a global issue, it is not a normal time, and is a significant risk not just to growth but to personal wealth.

He advised startups to make drastic changes, to cut expenses and to cut deep, but to still keep marching. "You can't be a general if you turn back," he apparently said. The point he hammered on was that since you can't manage the economy, manage everything else, including your business. He had some interesting advice for startups.

  • Cut spending. Cut fat. Preserve capital.
  • Throw out the models and spreadsheets, because all assumptions will be wrong.
  • Focus on quality.
  • Reduce risk.

Michael Beckwith

Michael Beckwith's presentation had lots of charts and data and he pointed out that the V-shaped recovery is unlikely. He also said that the cuts in spending will accelerate in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of 2009, and pointed to eBay as an example.

Leone's lessons

Doug Leone told the group that this downturn was a different animal and one from which it would take "years to recover." He was clear in pointing out that:

  • Unprofitable companies would have a tough time raising cash, so get cash-flow positive as soon as possible.
  • Go on the offensive and pound on your competitors' shortcomings.
  • Be aggressive with your messaging and be out there. In a downturn, aggressive PR and communications strategy is key.
  • Decline in M&A will mean that only lean companies with sales models that work will get bought.
  • When it comes to deciding between capital preservation and grabbing market share, he advised that everyone should be preserving capital.

Leone's other tips for companies, especially the Sequoia portfolio companies, were something like this:

  • Start with zero-based budgeting.
  • Cutting deeper is the formula to survive, and this is an era of survival of the quickest.
  • Make sure you have one year's worth of cash.
  • If you have a product, reduce expenses around it and boost sales. If the product is ready, cut the number of engineers.
  • Focus on building the absolutely essential features in your product.
  • Be brutal when it comes to marketing — anything that isn't working, cut it.
  • Don't burn through your cash, for cash is king.
  • Cut base salaries on sales people and leverage them with upside.
  • Most importantly, be true to yourself.

Wednesday, October 15, 2008

Liquidity Troubles, Volatility Bedevil Currency Markets

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122398875123732433.html Liquidity Troubles, Volatility Bedevil Currency Markets     

We begin by pointing out the obvious. A bounce in a bear market does not give cause for celebration. It gives cause for selling. Sell the rallies, buy the dips. Buy low, sell high, in other words. We're selling stocks, generally. And this bounce is a good occasion to do so…because we think this market could go a lot lower. Dow 5,000 is our target. When the Dow gets below 5,000 we might be tempted to buy. Until then, it's sell…sell…sell...... http://www.dailyreckoning.com/

State-controlled enerprises, the present owners and creditors of which will receive income bonds . . . . There is no real difference between being a yes-man official of a billion dollar bank and being an official of a State bureaucracy . . ."

From the pro-fascist American author Lawrence Dennis, in his 1936 book, The Coming American Fasicsm, p. 176, in the chapter entitled "Why Fascism Instead of Communism?".    http://www.lewrockwell.com/blog/lewrw/archives/023506.html

Perhaps the time for self-delusion is passed. The grand new plan, just replaced the $700 billion plan, that replaced the $80 billion plan to bail out AIG, that replaced the Bear Stearns bailout which was just pocket change.

Forgive me for being skittish but it seems like every time you blink the number goes up by a factor of ten. The way it looks now is that combined USA , Europe and UK , the damage could easily be $7 trillion. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article6811.html

Monday, October 13, 2008

Fed announces unlimited supply of Dollars

http://money.cnn.com/2008/10/13/news/economy/central_banks_dollar_funds/?postversion=2008101309 NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- The Federal Reserve announced Monday it will offer an unlimited amount of dollars to three other central banks in an unprecedented move to provide liquidity to the global banking system.

You say the dollar has been soaring recently? Well, yes, it has. But that doesn't mean it is worth anything. In fact, the dollar is valueless, and the $1 bills in your wallet are worth no more intrinscially than the $100 bills. Those who do not understand why this is so or who would argue otherwise are simply ignorant or delusional. As we explained here a couple of weeks ago, the dollar is rallying because it is caught in a short squeeze. Short-term borrowers, unable to keep rolling their loans, have been forced to settle up in cash. This has created a made scramble for cash dollars, as opposed to credit dollars. And although the Fed has attempted to keep the system liquid with unprecedented infusions of new cash, the amounts pale in comparison to a global financial deflation that has already caused tens of trillions of dollars worth of financial and real estate assets to vanish from the economy.    http://news.goldseek.com/RickAckerman/1223913742.php

There are no attractive options, but compulsory adjustment might not be the most unattractive option. If it worked, it might at least offer greater certainty. Already US Treasury bond yields are RISING as the market fears a future flood of issuance and holders scramble for cash. The other alternative, of course, is a big burst of inflation to erode the real value of the claims surreptitiously, and offer debtors relief.

Inflation has been the solution to widespread over-indebtedness in the past for many countries. But even if the Fed COULD generate inflation amid a contracting economy, that would simply expropriate creditors in a different fashion.    http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2008/10/12/16931/kemp-the-united-states-is-now-in-some-very-general-sense-bankrupt/

Sunday, October 12, 2008

Tobin tax on FX?

Finally, instead of tax incentives and tax cuts many see that what is desperately needed at this point in time is the introduction of a new tax. This tax would be a tax on investments, akin to the Tobin tax. The Tobin tax is the suggested tax on all trade of currency across borders. Named after the economist James Tobin, the tax is intended to put a penalty on short-term speculation in currencies. The original tax rate he proposed was 1%, which was subsequently lowered to between 0.1% and 0.25%. http://www.heise.de/tp/r4/artikel/28/28896/1.html

In a sign of how worried companies have become about getting credit, General Electric Co (GE.N: Quote) considered seeking a bank charter that would give it access to government lending channels, sources familiar with the company's thinking told Reuters last week. http://ca.reuters.com/article/businessNews/idCATRE49B30P20081012?sp=true

Now we are starting to get anecdotal evidence that this extremely vital market is also freezing up. If you think the problems stemming from a meltdown with the commercial paper markets are threatening to the world economy, they are small potatoes when compared to a seizure in the letter of credit markets..... "'There are all kinds of stuff stacked up on docks right now that can't be shipped because people can't get letters of credit,' said Bill Gary, president of Commodity Information Systems in Oklahoma City. 'The problem is not demand, and it's not supply because we have plenty of supply. It's finding anyone who can come up with the credit to buy.'...... That means he can't ship goods, which means that within the next 2 weeks, physical shortages of commodities begin to show up. THE CENTRAL BANKS CAN'T LET THAT HAPPEN OR WE HAVE NO ECONOMY, LET ALONE A CREDIT SYSTEM."..... http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article6745.html

http://www.worldnetdaily.com/index.php?fa=PAGE.view&pageId=77687 China stiffing America for $100 billion in debt

Yet U.S. taxpayers helping Beijing as part of trillion-$ credit bailout

Thursday, October 9, 2008

Big discounts fail to lure shoppers and other articles

"In 2005, my wife and I retired," Carl says. "We went to a Merrill Lynch financial advisor and had about $200,000 to put away for our retirement. We told them at the time that this was all the money we had for retirement and we wanted it to be secure. We didn't want risk. ... http://www.lawyersandsettlements.com/articles/11343/stock-market-losses-3.html

"Big discounts fail to lure shoppers," reports the Wall Street Journal . Restaurants are empty. Shopping malls are not even attracting strollers and gawkers – let alone people with money to spend. Auto lots are so quiet the salesmen take turns pretending to be customers – just to keep their skills at-the-ready. Even the private jet business is in a tailspin." (The Daily Reckoning)    http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article6710.html

The US and advanced economies' financial system is now headed towards a near-term systemic financial meltdown as day after day stock markets are in free fall, money markets have shut down while their spreads are skyrocketing, and credit spreads are surging through the roof. There is now the beginning of a generalized run on the banking system of these economies; a collapse of the shadow banking system, i.e. those non-banks (broker dealers, non-bank mortgage lenders, SIV and conduits, hedge funds, money market funds, private equity firms) that, like banks, borrow short and liquid, are highly leveraged and lend and invest long and illiquid and are thus at risk of a run on their short-term liabilities; and now a roll-off of the short term liabilities of the corporate sectors that may lead to widespread bankruptcies of solvent but illiquid financial and non-financial firms.

On the real economic side all the advanced economies representing 55% of global GDP (US, Eurozone, UK, other smaller European countries, Canada, Japan, Australia, New Zealand, Japan) entered a recession even before the massive financial shocks that started in the late summer made the liquidity and credit crunch even more virulent and will thus cause an even more severe recession than the one that started in the spring. So we have a severe recession, a severe financial crisis and a severe banking crisis in advanced economies.

http://www.rgemonitor.com/roubini-monitor/253973/the_world_is_at_severe_risk_of_a_global_systemic_financial_meltdown_and_a_severe_global_depression

We are in the midst of an unfolding debacle. It is happening about us. I am not sure how or when it ends, but the end, when it arrives, will radically alter the way we live for a long time.

Whoever wins the US election and takes office in January will need prayers and divine intervention.    http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/10/dow-tanks-680-to-below-9000-investors.html

This article by Stratfor founder and Chief Intelligence Officer George Friedman accompanies an upcoming series on the geopolitics of the global financial crisis. Here, he discusses Stratfor's geopolitical method for analyzing economic issues, which has a different focus and purpose from the models used by economists.    http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20081009_international_economic_crisis_and_stratfors_method

Canada's Banking System World's Soundest http://www.shortnews.com/start.cfm?id=73925

Roubini: At this point severe damage is done and one cannot rule out a systemic collapse and a global depression. It will take a significant change in leadership of economic policy and very radical, coordinated policy actions among all advanced and emerging market economies to avoid this economic and financial disaster. Urgent and immediate necessary actions that need to be done globally include:
1) another rapid round of policy rate cuts of the order of at least 150 basis points on average globally;
2) a temporary blanket guarantee of all deposits while a triage between insolvent financial institutions that need to be shut down and distressed but solvent institutions that need to be partially nationalized with injections of public capital is made;
3) a rapid reduction of the debt burden of insolvent households preceded by a temporary freeze on all foreclosures;
4) massive and unlimited provision of liquidity to solvent financial institutions;
5) public provision of credit to the solvent parts of the corporate sector to avoid a short-term debt refinancing crisis for solvent but illiquid corporations and small businesses;
6) a massive direct government fiscal stimulus packages that includes public works, infrastructure spending, unemployment benefits, tax rebates to lower income households and provision of grants to strapped and crunched state and local government;
7) a rapid resolution of the banking problems via triage, public recapitalization of financial institutions and reduction of the debt burden of distressed households and borrowers;
8) an agreement between lender and creditor countries running current account surpluses and borrowing and debtor countries running current account deficits to maintain an orderly financing of deficits and a recycling of the surpluses of creditors to avoid a disorderly adjustment of such imbalances.

U.S. President George Bush will take the unusual step of meeting at the White House on Oct 11 with G-7 finance ministers and the heads of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank. 

Current EU President Sarkozy: ``Only coordinated action by central banks and governments is able to stop the systemic risk and ensure the financing of economies,'' said Sarkozy, who now holds the EU's rotating presidency. 

IMF Global Financial Stability Report, October 2008 (GFSR):

- total U.S.-originated assets loss estimate increased to $1.4 trillion, an increase April number of $945bn;
- over the next few years, five years, around $675 billion of additional capital is needed to keep credit growing, even modestly, in the face of the current shocks [as of October, global bank writedowns have reached $592bn vs. $442bn fresh capital raised of which in the U.S. $340bn ($245bn), and Europe $227bn ($175bn) and Asia $25bn($23bn)]
- the restoration of financial stability requires a decisive and internationally coherent set of policies in 3 areas: 1) strengthening the capital base of viable institutions, 2)  buttressing troubled assets by using public sector balance sheets; and 3) improving funding availability, mainly term funding, to stabilize bank balance sheets.
- orderly resolution of nonviable financial institutions;
- reduce counterparty risks through centralized clearing organizations
--> The most significant risk remains a worsening of the adverse feedback loop between the financial system and the real economy.

World Economic Outlook, October 2008:

- global response needed to global problem;
- The IMF now expects the world economy to grow 3.9% pace in 2008, down from the last estimate of 4.1% in July. It also cut expected 2009 growth from 3.9% to 3%, which would be the weakest level since 2002;
- effects of rate cuts are limited in the current crisis (i.e. pushing on a string). Monetary policy needs to be combined with fiscal policy.
- The U.S. 2008 forecast edged up to 1.6% from 1.3% in July. However, the U.S. economy is expected to contract in the fourth quarter of 2008 and early 2009, prompting the fund to downgrade next year's growth estimate to 0.1% from 0.8%. A U.S. recovery is expected to begin in the second half of next year as housing prices bottom out.
- IMF expects a "a significant slowdown in activity across western Europe followed by a very gradual recovery beginning in the second half of 2009.". The 2008 forecast for euro-zone growth was cut to 1.3% from 1.7% in July, and to 0.2% from 1.2% in 2009. Italy's economy is expected to contract this year, and it will be joined by Spain in 2009
- The U.K. economy is also expected to go from 1.0% growth in 2008 to a 0.1% contraction next year.
- the 2008 forecast for Japan was cut to 0.7% from 1.5% in July, with the 2009 estimate lowered to 0.5% from 1.5%. Canada's 2008 estimate was cut to 0.7% from 1.0%, and its 2009 forecast fell to 1.2% from 1.9%.
- Emerging and developing economies as a whole are still expected to expand at a solid 6.9% clip this year, though the IMF trimmed its 2009 forecast to 6.1% from 6.7%.

Wednesday, October 8, 2008

Police will not enforce foreclosures in Chicago area

http://apnews.myway.com/article/20081008/D93MFL900.html CHICAGO (AP) - Residents of foreclosed properties in Chicago and other parts of Cook County don't have to worry about deputies forcing them out. Sheriff Tom Dart says that starting Thursday his office won't take part in evictions.

Dart says he's concerned that many of the people being evicted are renters who were unaware that their landlords have been failing to pay their mortgages. He says his deputies have no way of knowing whether they're removing someone who has defaulted on a loan or someone who has been faithfully paying rent.

Dart says he thinks he's the first sheriff in a major metropolitan area to stop such evictions during the ongoing foreclosure crisis.

Dart says the number of mortgage foreclosures in Cook County has skyrocketed and will probably keep rising.

Tuesday, October 7, 2008

Will the Bretton Woods 2 (BW2) Regime Collapse Like the Original

The principal technique employed in the US is to get people so busy that they don't have time to think about anything, and it is important to remember that with one person, one vote, this doesn't have to be everyone, just the majority.    http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article6654.html

For these reasons it is thought wise to have some cash stashed away and a supply of tradable gold and silver in a safe place or safe places.

Soon we will consider the likely impact of all this on gold and silver prices, both on the paper prices and on the prices for real physical gold and silver that you can hold in your hand, and consider the merits of gold and silver versus gold and silver stocks. Another subject we will turn our attention to is measures to improve security in conditions of anarchy or near anarchy.

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/10/roubini-fed-fiddles-while-rome-burns.html

This is indeed a cardiac arrest for the shadow and non-shadow banking system and for the system of financing of the corporate sector. The shutdown of financing for the corporate system is particularly scary: solvent but illiquid corporations that cannot roll over their maturing debt may now face massive defaults due to this illiquidity. And if the financing of the corporate sectors shuts down and remains shut down the risk of an economic collapse similar to the Great Depression becomes highly likely....

http://www.peakoil.com/survey219-results.html

http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2008/10/06/the-damage-spreads/

Central banks meanwhile keep trumping themselves over who will create more money without a correspondent value. But the pinstriped inflationistas have only a single strong card left in their hands. It is the card of public ignorance and the blessing that nobody can remember the last period of hyper-inflation.....    http://seekingalpha.com/article/98732-monetary-madness-global-margin-call-underway

* The Federal Reserve is bankrupt. The U.S. Treasury Department quietly rescued — actually, took over — the world's largest Central Bank on September 17.

* The idea that Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke could fly his helicopter was a fraud; the Fed simply didn't have any helicopter fuel.

* The U.S. Treasury Department, on the other hand, has copious amounts of helicopter fuel in the form of undiscounted government debt, and this fuel has now been made available to Mr. Bernanke. The more fuel the Treasury provides, the closer the U.S. dollar will get to its death.

* Just released Fed data confirms that initial test flights of Ben's helicopter have been spectacularly successful. Up to $150 billion has been loaded on the helicopter so far and may already be fluttering down into the Monetary Base as I write this. The inflation of "high power" money by more than 15% in the course of 2 weeks (an annual rate of 300% or more) is unprecedented.

* Inflation of the Monetary Base is leveraged by fractional reserve lending. Should the banks actually start to lend again, we could very well see hyperinflation in the U.S. over the next 18 months.      * The Federal Reserve is bankrupt. The U.S. Treasury Department quietly rescued — actually, took over — the world's largest Central Bank on September 17.

* The idea that Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke could fly his helicopter was a fraud; the Fed simply didn't have any helicopter fuel.

* The U.S. Treasury Department, on the other hand, has copious amounts of helicopter fuel in the form of undiscounted government debt, and this fuel has now been made available to Mr. Bernanke. The more fuel the Treasury provides, the closer the U.S. dollar will get to its death.

* Just released Fed data confirms that initial test flights of Ben's helicopter have been spectacularly successful. Up to $150 billion has been loaded on the helicopter so far and may already be fluttering down into the Monetary Base as I write this. The inflation of "high power" money by more than 15% in the course of 2 weeks (an annual rate of 300% or more) is unprecedented.

* Inflation of the Monetary Base is leveraged by fractional reserve lending. Should the banks actually start to lend again, we could very well see hyperinflation in the U.S. over the next 18 months. http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1223400153.php

The increase in the size of the Term Auction Facility, from $150 billion a month ($75 billion per two 28 day auction) as of its last auction to $900 billion today (with an interim plan to go to $450 billion that was blown past in this announcement) is an admission that the banking system is not functioning. The size of the TAF, a single facility, now exceeds that of the Fed's entire recent balance sheet size.    http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/10/term-auction-facility-increased-to-900.html

Many of us in the US are focused on our own woes. But this is a global credit crisis. In today's Outside the Box, we take a look at the currency markets, which are in an historic upheaval and also look at what is going on in Europe. I suspect that Europe is in for a period of much distress, as the world begins to deleverage That is why one government after another will back the deposits of banks within their countries, for otherwise capital will flee to countries like Ireland and Germany which ARE guaranteeing the deposits for all banks in their borders. . Many European banks are leveraged 50 to 1 (not a misprint). I suspect that more government will do like Belgium and the Netherlands and inject capital directly into their local banks deemed too big to fail.    http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article6659.html

Thus to begin, we say here this morning, mincing no words whatsoever, we are more frightened now for the future of the global capital markets than we have been at any time in our thirty+ years of watching, commenting upon and taking part in them. We are fearful... and we mean this fully... that we have passed the tipping point; that things are now spinning out of control; that forces have been unleashed that cannot be stopped without some truly massive, truly strong-handed, governmental action including the closure of markets and limits upon bank withdrawals, et al. These are troubling times, and our fear is palpable and growing. Worse, these concerns are giving rise to the likelihood that the Left shall be in ascension, and that manifestly left-of-centre, interventionist government lies ahead here in the US and in Europe. Higher, rather than lower taxes will be the end result. Greater... indeed very much greater... intervention in the capital markets lies ahead. Trade and act accordingly.

"If money isn't loosened up," warned the president during negotiations on the bill, "this sucker could go down." (DRUNK) One wonders how much our prospects have improved now that the money has been loosened up, i.e., whether or not "this sucker" might go down anyway.    http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article6652.html

http://www.financialarmageddon.com/     

In addition, household net worth, which greases spending, fell $6 trillion over the last year, with $1 trillion of that in just the last four weeks, said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Economy.com.

For instance, a report last year from consulting firm Greenwich Associates found that hedge funds were responsible for nearly 30% of all fixed-income trading in the U.S. That market, and others, could take a hit as hedge funds shrink, said Mr. Nichter.

Will the Bretton Woods 2 (BW2) Regime Collapse Like the Original

Bretton Woods Regime Did? The Coming End Game of BW2

by Nouriel Roubini,

July 6, 2008    http://www.rgemonitor.com/redir.php?sid=1&cid=271999&tgid=0

"Continuity of Government" (COG) Provisions activated in 2001 http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=10473

"I still don't believe the dollar can maintain this strength going forward, as the funding requirements on the deficit continues to be the Sword of Damocles hanging over the dollar. But for now… I have to go to the corner and sit…"    http://www.dailyreckoning.com/Writers/Butler/Articles/100608.html

When the dollar can rally in the face of news like it received on Friday, even me, the biggest fundamental trader you've ever seen, can see the writing on the wall… This dollar rally goes against everything I've ever known or studied regarding fundamentals. I still don't believe the dollar can maintain this strength going forward, as the funding requirements on the deficit continues to be the Sword of Damocles hanging over the dollar. But for now… I have to go to the corner and sit, for I have been wrong about how the dollar would react to all of this.

Pimco's Bill Gross has out his latest missive, and if recent history is any evidence then it has a solid change of being causal, as opposed to being merely predictive. The key part is this:

A systemic delevering likely requires a systemic solution, which moves beyond cyclical interest rate cuts, liquidity provisions, or even the purchase of subprime mortgage-backed bonds. We believe that the Federal Reserve must now act as a clearing house, guaranteeing that institutional transactions clear (and investors receive) their Big Macs at the second window. They must also take another bold step: outright purchases of commercial paper. They should also cut interest rates to 1%, because we are experiencing asset deflation, and the threat of headline inflation is long past. [Emphase mine]

http://seekingalpha.com/article/98750-bill-gross-says-jump-will-the-fed-once-again-say-how-high

Sunday, October 5, 2008

Where are the Masters of the Universe now?

Where are the Masters of the Universe now? As the financial tsunami rolls out across the world, crushing seemingly invincible institutions in its path and threatening the livelihoods of millions, the blame game has begun.

But there's a problem. The most obvious candidates for pillorying have disappeared. Lehman Brothers and Bear Stearns have gone up in smoke. Merrill Lynch has been consumed. Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs have been turned into high street banks, the kind with plastic pot plants in the corner and bowls of sweets to entice the kids. In short: how can you vent your spleen at a ghost? As Bill Clinton, out on the campaign trail for Barack Obama this week, summed up the conundrum: "The Wall Street you are mad at doesn't exist anymore. It vanished." http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2008/oct/04/useconomy.usa/print

The bravest decision he took was in 1995, following the collapse of Barings Bank, as he explained in The Prospect:

I am a 47-year-old banker - chief executive of Swiss Bank Corporation in London, to be precise - and I have just decided that I need to go back to university for two years to study mathematics. Some of my friends think I am mad, and perhaps they are right. But perhaps something strange has happened to banking too.

It is hard to imagine that there is anything really new in banking. The tools of the trade have been around and in use, pretty much unchanged, for hundreds of years. Yet within the span of my own career, the world of international finance has enjoyed a renaissance-a spurt of creativity in the 1970s and 1980s, when new techniques emerged which have transformed the conduct of many banks and bankers. These techniques-collectively known as derivatives-have spawned a new jargon (would you know what to do with a Jellyroll, or an Alligator Spread?), huge new sources of profit, and mystifying new types of risk.

Imagine devoting yourself to the study of advanced mathematics in your mid-40s from the lofty heights of CEO of a Swiss bank! I wouldn't be so noble, from more modest altitudes.    http://www.rgemonitor.com/financemarkets-monitor/253763/learning_from_rudi_bogni_the_thin_space_of_financial_activity

Hypo Real Estate on the verge of Collapse, Europe’s biggest non-deposit bank

The euro is in serious trouble with this Hypo Real Estate collapse. Germans remain completely in denial. The French get it, largely because their clever finance minister, Christine LaGarde, was educated at the University of Chicago and consequently understands something about markets. Sarkozy, to his credit, appears to be listening to her. The Germans are about to destroy EMU with their pigheadedness, and this will be the stuff of revolution, given that the German people were never consulted on abandoning the DM (if there had been a referendum, the euro would have never been accepted in Germany) and were forced to get rid of arguably the most successful post-war monetary institution, the Bundesbank.    http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/10/hypo-bank-rescue-fails-threatening.html

ALERT - Pressure was mounting on Gordon Brown tonight to put unlimited guarantees on British savings after Germany became the third European country to make the drastic move. http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1069132/Pressure-mounts-Brown-protect-ALL-bank-savings-Germany-promises-cast-iron-guarantee.html

Consumer will change his behavior

Foreclosures, bank failures, layoffs and bailouts may dominate the headlines. But the decisions that will make or break the economy won't be made on Wall Street but on your street, where American consumers contribute 70 cents of every dollar spent in the U.S. economy........ Of course spending hasn't stopped. People may even indulge their tastes for luxury, Rist said, but where and how they spend has changed. Instead of dinner at a fine restaurant, they might cook a candlelit dinner at home. Or if they shop for a couch, they'll do more research and perhaps even spend more, to buy a quality product for the reassurance of value.

Rist said impulse buying and conspicuous consumption are out - at least for now.

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2008/10/05/MNAM13B0M4.DTL&type=printable

Nathan also wanted to know if the US needed loans from foreign governments to finance the splurge and our ongoing budget deficits. And he wondered if America's government was still AAA credit. I've been wondering that myself. But it was eye opening to be asked that from a journalist from one of America's strongest allies. If the Israelis are wondering if our country's credit is any good, what are the Chinese and the Sultans thinking?    http://seekingalpha.com/article/98560-america-needs-a-turnaround-plan?source=headline1

Will the rescue plan now pending in Congress solve the crisis? "My answer is no," Eichengreen said. "It is best seen as a holding action. We have had a year of holding actions so far where the Federal Reserve has flooded the markets with liquidity and that hasn't solved the problem. The credit markets have shut down. The commercial paper market has imploded; inner bank markets have disappeared; companies are meeting their payrolls by charging their credit cards ... Maybe TARP (troubled asset rescue plan) gives Treasury the wiggle room to surreptitiously do what is necessary - recapitalize the banking system by paying too much. It would be better to be up front about what they're doing. I think there will have to be a Plan B."    http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2008/10/03/BUFU13AJK4.DTL&type=printable

Friday, October 3, 2008

Market crisis deepens

"Cutting short rates as close to zero as possible," writes Ian Shepherdson of High Frequency Economics in a note to clients today, "is a key ingredient of the policy mix required to prevent a pre-depression economy becoming a real depression economy."    http://seekingalpha.com/article/98459-the-die-is-cast?source=headline1

On addition to the package this time is the expansion of deposit insurance coverage. It increases the coverage limit of deposit insurance from $100,000 to $250,000, and allows FDIC to request the government to cover unlimited amount of losses. The protection of bank liabilities is another tried and failed policy to deal with the financial crises in many countries.    http://www.rgemonitor.com/asia-monitor/253848/will_expanding_deposit_insurance_coverage_prevent_bank_runs

You see folks; as Mr. Rubin was well aware, the federal trust funds DO NOT AND NEVER DID CONTAIN ANY MONEY . These accounts exist in the minds of accountants and lawyers [ledgerdom] only. So here's what was going on:....    http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article6619.html

Thursday, October 2, 2008

University payrolls affected

In a move suggesting how the credit crisis could disrupt American higher education, Wachovia Bank has limited the access of nearly 1,000 colleges to $9.3 billion the bank has held for them in a short-term investment fund, raising worries on some campuses about meeting payrolls and other obligations.

Wachovia, the North Carolina bank that agreed this week to sell its banking operations to Citigroup, has held the money in its role as trustee for a fund used by colleges and universities and managed by a Connecticut nonprofit, Commonfund.


http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/02/education/02college.html?_r=3&oref=slogin&ref=us&pagewanted=print

That brings us to this question: Why would a smart guy like Hank Paulson -- the former boss of Goldman Sachs -- advance such a dumb, shady plan? Let us count the reasons:

No. 1: It delays our national reckoning until after the presidential election.

Paulson first floated a bailout Sept. 18, at the very hour when shares of Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Morgan Stanley looked like they might go into a death spiral. It's not so much a bailout, as it is a timeout. He had to follow up with something, anything, to stop the freefall from resuming. It didn't have to make sense.

So it doesn't. The plan is about creating the illusion of stronger financial institutions, not strengthening them.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601039&sid=aMaWyNFImi4o&refer=homehttp://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601039&sid=aMaWyNFImi4o&refer=home

# High-risk, high-yield loans posted their worst monthly performance on record as prices tumbled to new lows after Lehman filed for bankruptcy: The Standard & Poor's/LSTA Leveraged Loan Index returned a negative 6.15 percent in September, almost double the previous record loss of 3.35 percent set in July 2007. Leveraged loan prices tumbled 8.57 cents in Sept ember to a record low of 79.8 cents on the dollar as financial companies failed and hedge fund managers sold assets anticipating client withdrawals. (CreditSights via Bloomberg)BIS: Defaults on leveraged-buyout loans may rise to 4% this year as firms struggle to refinance about $500 billion of debt used to fund the takeovers--> ``The risk of a significant increase in LBO firm defaults in the next few years may have risen substantially.''     http://www.rgemonitor.com/

Europe debates their own bail out

Nicholas Sarkozy jumps on the TARP bandwagon, and proposes we imitate the US; German finance minister expresses reservations, "to put it mildly"; US Senate approves bailout package; European Commission proposes very strange banking regulation; Moody's cuts Iceland's credit rating on the grounds that Iceland bailed out a bank (just imagine that); a group of well-known European economists, meanwhile, has written an open letter to EU leaders, calling for a systemic response to the crisis. http://www.eurointelligence.com/article.581+M5c2bd56bf51.0.html

Wednesday, October 1, 2008

$55 Trillion CDS market

http://money.cnn.com/2008/09/30/magazines/fortune/varchaver_derivatives_short.fortune/index.htm?postversion=2008093012 The financial crisis has put a spotlight on the obscure world of credit default swaps - which trade in a vast, unregulated market that most people haven't heard of and even fewer understand. Will this be the next disaster?

Tuesday, September 30, 2008

Payroll freeze

Either the credit markets will seize up in the next few days, or they won't.

Businesses either will get the short-term operating loans they need in the commercial paper market, or they won't. Either they'll get the money somewhere else (old-fashioned banks are back in style), or they won't make payroll and will have to start laying off people.    http://www.stltoday.com/stltoday/news/stories.nsf/editorialcommentary/story/322AD4416780E956862574D30081D731?OpenDocument

I own a small graphic design company that employs thirty people. We depend on credit for everything from payroll to buying supplies.

I have currently frozen salaries and we are trying to find a way to extend our office supplies.     http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7643244.stm

Kansas City cabinet maker Anthony Gallo is in a similar bind. Eighteen months ago Gallo had no debt. Now he's being forced to borrow just to make payroll – just as his chief lender has cut his credit line from $400,000 to $175,000.

"My line of credit has been cut to nothing," said Gallo. "We're all hurting... and wondering what is going to happen."     http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/nation/20080930-1130-financial-mainstreet.html

A shattering moment in America's fall from power

The global financial crisis will see the US falter in the same way the Soviet Union did when the Berlin Wall came down. The era of American dominance is over

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2008/sep/28/usforeignpolicy.useconomicgrowth/print

And this is where we stand today. The great ship (United States) is sinking. Should we let the band (Hank Paulson) dictate those who get onto the lifeboats first? If we do, we will all face the fate of Jack as he slowly freezes to death in the icy Atlantic. http://www.thecuttingedgenews.com/index.php?article=795&pageid=44&pagename=Slices

We cannot risk another week or another month where American businesses are afraid to extend credit and lend money," Obama said. "That has an impact on housing here in Nevada. That has an impact on a small business owner who has got to make payroll, and if he can't make payroll on Friday, he may lay you off on Monday. If he lays you off on Monday, then that means you may not be able to make your payments to somebody that you just bought something from. It ripples throughout the economy."

http://dyn.politico.com/printstory.cfm?uuid=B4F837FA-18FE-70B2-A818876217230B44

Markets around the world are under stress, and that reduces the availability of credit that businesses across America depend on to meet payroll and to ...    http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/nation/bal-te.bailout30sep30,0,1808693.story

If the credit markets should freeze up--which many say is happening and will continue without massive intervention--everyone that borrows money will face a cash crunch. That means companies that take advantage of short-term loans to get by won't be able to buy raw materials or make payroll. Even businesses that don't need short-term capital may defer purchases to preserve capital. http://news.cnet.com/8301-1001_3-10053693-92.html

Kansas City cabinet maker Anthony Gallo is in a similar bind. Eighteen months ago Gallo had no debt. Now he's being forced to borrow just to make payroll – just as his chief lender has cut his credit line from $400,000 to $175,000.

"My line of credit has been cut to nothing," said Gallo. "We're all hurting... and wondering what is going to happen."     http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/nation/20080930-1130-financial-mainstreet.html

It's not a question of the high cost of credit, there's nothing available out there," said Levin, noting that he hears of sales agencies going out of business almost every week.

"The party's over and people don't want to admit it ... I don't want to admit it, but you had to see it coming." FAL

The money markets have completely broken down

``The money markets have completely broken down, with no trading taking place at all,'' said Christoph Rieger, a fixed- income strategist at Dresdner Kleinwort in Frankfurt. ``There is no market any more. Central banks are the only providers of cash to the market, no-one else is lending.''.... http://www.rgemonitor.com/us-monitor/253808/libor_surges_to_nearly_7_but_us_stock_futures_rise_on_bailout_bill_revival_hopes

How EU banks were gaming their regulators through AIG

It's less well known than it should be, but Europeans banks have long been gaming their regulators, having far less than the actual capital reserves that they needed given their balance sheets. AIG filled the hole, selling credit defaults swaps to European banks via which they could tell regulators that they were adequately covered -- at triple-A, no less -- while carrying less cash than required.    http://seekingalpha.com/article/97958-how-the-u-s-saved-europe-s-banking-system?source=more_author_recent_similar_articles

In New York, investment firm executive Marc der Kinderen said that collapsing trust in US financial institutions was potentially the most damaging aspect of the crisis.

"The worst thing that is happening right now is that there is absolutely no trust, no faith in the system as a whole," der Kinderen told AFP.

"That makes a horrible way for companies to do business with each other ... Banks are the infrastructure of finance, like a highway system, and right now, every ramp to the highway system has effectively been shut down."     http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=080930072942.bkkh6c8f&show_article=1

Market rebounds

Lawmakers scramble to revise bailout bill...
Obama calls on Americans to support rescue plan...
Bush warns of 'painful and lasting' damage...
Many vulnerable lawmakers said 'no'...
Clinton: 'It Sounds Dire, But Commerce Could Stop'...
Corporate America lost value size of Indian economy....
Western world will become significantly less wealthy...

WSJ: Congress Lives Up to Its 10% Approval Rating...
Harvard economist: Bankruptcy is right answer...
PAPER: 'Bailout marks Karl Marx's comeback'...
Talk radio holds firm over 'socialist' bailout...
EU Bank rescues spread...
FDIC asks for temporary hike in $100,000 cap on insured deposits...
Euro Declines Most Against Dollar Since Inception...

Euro drops by largest since inception on EU bank failure fear

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aXeu_kATieSo&refer=home Sept. 30 (Bloomberg) -- The euro fell the most against the dollar since the introduction of the shared currency in 1999 after France and Belgium led a state-backed rescue of Dexia SA, as the widening financial crisis forces governments to prop up financial institutions across Europe.

Sept. 30 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks rose as growing expectations that lawmakers will salvage a $700 billion bank- rescue package helped the Standard & Poor's 500 Index recover more than a third of yesterday's 8.8 percent plunge.http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a.lG6SHwRN2o&refer=home

Monday, September 29, 2008

Fed pumps record 630 billion

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a9MTZEgukPLY&refer=home Fed Pumps Further $630 Billion Into Financial System

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article6530.html "A well-known cynical New York short-seller observes: "This morning, Mr. Buffett referred to the 'economic Pearl Harbor ' that would occur if the Federal government did nothing. Well…given that Mr. Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway has written almost $40 BILLION in equity puts…one Pearl Harbor would certainly arrive in Omaha !"

http://www.rgemonitor.com/roubini-monitor/253801/the_us_and_global_financial_crisis_is_becoming_much_more_severe_in_spite_of_the_treasury_rescue_plan_the_risk_of_a_total_systemic_meltdown_is_now_as_high_as_ever

Sunday, September 28, 2008

Hedge Funds reel in losses – should Fed defend the dollar?

There are advantages to the depreciation option for the US: foreign debt is denominated in US currency so that a depreciation does not cause valuation effects on the stock or the service of the debt, and the economy is relatively closed which considerably mutes the effect of the exchange rate on inflation.

After a depreciation, US assets would seem extraordinarily cheap from a foreign perspective, but current holders of US assets would be wiped out (measured in currencies different from the dollar) and this in itself could discourage them from dumping these assets onto the market.    http://www.rgemonitor.com/latam-monitor/253761/should_the_united_states_defend_the_dollar_or_let_it_go

That's just "collateral damage".

It's because if they do, the $68 Trillion chain reaction could start.

What does this mean?

• The $700 billion WILL be approved, there is no question about that.

• The Fed will keep interest rates far below the rate of inflation, to stimulate an increase in house prices.

• House prices will rise.

• The US Government will effectively guarantee all RBMS's against default.

• So, no more defaults on RMBS's.

• The dollar will fall

• Disaster will have been avoided.

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article6495.html

One hedge fund said: "We've produced 15 per cent returns for 10 years. This year has been bad and our funds under management have been reduced from $2billion to just $300m. This is decimation."

Not a single hedge fund strategy has produced positive returns so far this month, with convertible arbitrage and distressed securities down an estimated 7.96 per cent and 7.34 per cent, respectively, according to Dow Jones Hedge Fund Indexes. Equity market-neutral funds, which often short a stock in one sector and go long on another in the same sector, are down 1.85 per cent.    http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/09/hedge-funds-face-record-redemptions.html

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1063356/Credit-crunch-banker-leaps-death-express-train.html The City was in shock last night after the apparent suicide of a millionaire financier haunted by the pressures of dealing with the credit crunch.

Thursday, September 25, 2008

WaMu collapses

http://www.fdic.gov/news/news/press/2008/pr08085.html

JPMorgan Chase Acquires Banking Operations of Washington Mutual

FDIC Facilitates Transaction that Protects All Depositors and Comes at No Cost to the Deposit Insurance Fund

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
September 25, 2008

Media Contact:
Andrew Gray (202) 898-7192
angray@fdic.gov


 

JPMorgan Chase acquired the banking operations of Washington Mutual Bank in a transaction facilitated by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation. All depositors are fully protected and there will be no cost to the Deposit Insurance Fund.

"For all depositors and other customers of Washington Mutual Bank, this is simply a combination of two banks," said FDIC Chairman Sheila C. Bair. "For bank customers, it will be a seamless transition. There will be no interruption in services and bank customers should expect business as usual come Friday morning."

JPMorgan Chase acquired the assets, assumed the qualified financial contracts and made a payment of $1.9 billion. Claims by equity, subordinated and senior debt holders were not acquired.

"WaMu's balance sheet and the payment paid by JPMorgan Chase allowed a transaction in which neither the uninsured depositors nor the insurance fund absorbed any losses," Bair said.

Washington Mutual Bank also has a subsidiary, Washington Mutual FSB, Park City, Utah. They have combined assets of $307 billion and total deposits of $188 billion.

Thursday evening, Washington Mutual was closed by the Office of Thrift Supervision and the FDIC named receiver. WaMu customers with questions should call their normal banking representative, service center, 1-800-788-7000 or visit www.WaMU.com. The FDIC's consumer hotline is 1-877-ASK-FDIC (1-877-275-3342) or visit www.fdic.gov.

# # #

Congress created the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation in 1933 to restore public confidence in the nation's banking system. The FDIC insures deposits at the nation's 8,451 banks and savings associations and it promotes the safety and soundness of these institutions by identifying, monitoring and addressing risks to which they are exposed. The FDIC receives no federal tax dollars – insured financial institutions fund its operations.

FDIC press releases and other information are available on the Internet at www.fdic.gov, by subscription electronically (go to www.fdic.gov/about/subscriptions/index.html) and may also be obtained through the FDIC's Public Information Center (877-275-3342 or 703-562-2200). PR-85-2008


 

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/26/business/26wamu.html?_r=1&hp&oref=slogin


Regulators Said to Broker Rescue of WaMu

U.S. financial institutions borrowed a record $187.75 billion per day

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. financial institutions borrowed a record $187.75 billion per day on average directly from the Federal Reserve in the latest week, showing the central bank went to extremes to keep the financial system afloat amid the biggest crisis since the Great Depression.    http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv/idUSTRE48O98920080925

China halts capital flows to US

http://www.reuters.com/article/companyNewsAndPR/idUSPEK16693720080925 The Hong Kong newspaper cited unidentified industry sources as saying the instruction from the China Banking Regulatory Commission (CBRC) applied to interbank lending of all currencies to U.S. banks but not to banks from other countries.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/09/24/AR2008092402799.html?nav=hcmodule "Ironically, the intervention could even trigger additional failures of large institutions, because some institutions may be carrying troubled assets on their books at inflated values," Orszag said in his testimony. "Establishing clearer prices might reveal those institutions to be insolvent."

"It's not based on any particular data point," a Treasury spokeswoman told Forbes.com Tuesday. "We just wanted to choose a really large number." http://www.forbes.com/home/2008/09/23/bailout-paulson-congress-biz-beltway-cx_jz_bw_0923bailout.html

Wednesday, September 24, 2008

Since 1981, 423 U.S. companies with assets of more than $500 million filed for bankruptcy

"Since 1981, 423 U.S. companies with assets of more than $500 million filed for bankruptcy," with total assets exceeding $1.5 trillion.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122221497204869357.html?mod=googlenews_wsj#printMode

"Billion-Dollar Lessons" is an insightful and crisply written book, one that offers wisely chosen and well- narrated case studies but also good advice, such as urging companies to appoint an in-house "devil's advocate" to challenge the unhealthy unanimity that accompanies many major decisions.

US President George W. Bush, who is also attending the UN General Assembly, had telephoned Chinese President Hu Jintao on Monday to brief him about the financial turmoil and his administration's bid to stage a 700 billion dollar Wall Street bailout to stem the crisis.

Hu told Bush that China welcomed Washington's efforts to stabilize the US financial markets and hoped they succeed, according to Beijing's state media.

But as Wen spoke Wednesday at the United Nations, the Bush administration remained locked in a dispute with the US Congress over the massive bailout package aimed at buying distressed mortgages and mortgage-related securities from financial institutions.    http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5icLgpv_1Z5eHh6UMqzSDY-6v8bRQ

How Wall Street Lied to Its Computers

How Wall Street Lied to Its Computers

New York Times (09/18/08) Hansell, Saul

Most Wall Street computer models radically underestimated the risk of complex mortgage securities, partially because the level of financial distress is "the equivalent of the 100-year flood," says Capital Market Risk Advisors president Leslie Rahl. Rahl, and others, say that the people who ran the financial firms chose to program their risk-management systems with overly optimistic assumptions and to provide those systems with oversimplified data, preventing the systems from detecting the problem before it was too late. Top bankers cannot simply ignore computer models, because after the last round of significant financial losses, regulators required financial institutions to monitor their risk positions. If a model says a firm's risk has increased, the firm must either reduce its risk or provide more capital as a cushion should things turn south. "There was a willful designing of the system to measure the risks in a certain way that would not necessarily pick up all the right risks," says RiskMetrics' Gregg Berman. "They wanted to keep their capital base as stable as possible so that the limits they imposed on their trading desks and portfolio managers would be stable." Berman says one way this was accomplished was to make sure the computer models looked at several years of trading history instead of just the last few months, which made the computers slow to report that risk had increased as defaults started to rise because the markets had been placid for several years.

http://bits.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/09/18/how-wall-streets-quants-lied-to-their-computers/

Tuesday, September 23, 2008

The financial system indeed lies in ruins

The financial system indeed lies in ruins. In the last year, Wall Street has shed 200,000 jobs. The bailout comes on the heels of the failure of the nation's investment banks, including Bear Stearns (purchased by J.P. Morgan Chase), Lehman Brothers (bankruptcy), Merrill Lynch (purchased by Bank of America), Morgan Stanley, and Goldman Sachs (both converted to bank holding companies). ....200,000 JOBS!!!!    http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article6428.html

Lehman Brothers in Britain collapsed with a mammoth £100 million black hole in its staff pension fund, it emerged last night. The deficit means that many former staff in Britain may not have their retirement promises met in full. Trustees of the fund wrote to the Pension Protection Fund (PPF), the industry lifeboat, last week seeking assistance, as The Times revealed on Saturday. http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/banking_and_finance/article4806169.ece

WASHINGTON (AP) -- The Federal Reserve made it easier Monday for private equity firms and other types of investors to take minority stakes in banks, a move that could usher new capital infusions to cash-hungry banks and help them cope with credit stresses. http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080922/fed_banking.html

The news that Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley are in the process of becoming Bank Holding Companies (BHCs) doesn't come as a complete surprise. If these firms were to remain independent, they had to radically reposition their balance sheets by bolstering capital and lengthening debt maturities. Further, the trend towards greater transparency is already afoot, so the kinds of disclosures required under the BHC Act were in the offing, anyway. Finally, by become a BHC you have access to the Fed window, access of some consequence given today's tumultuous market conditions. So by becoming a Bank (with a capital B) in the regulatory sense of the word, Goldman and Morgan Stanley are choosing life, with the chance of remaining independent. The question is - what kind of a life will it be? http://www.informationarbitrage.com/2008/09/on-bank-holding.html

Monday, September 22, 2008

Chaos has descended on Wall Street

The death of the investment banks. The ban on short selling. The unrelenting pain for anyone who needs to borrow money. Chaos has descended on Wall Street, and at least one hedge fund manager isn't going to take it anymore.

Cliff Asness, managing partner of AQR, a $30 billion hedge fund firm,..... http://dailybriefing.blogs.fortune.cnn.com/2008/09/22/hedge-fund-guru-strikes-back/

"This is a major realignment on Wall Street and we are going back to the days of the merchant banking of the 1800s," said Bob Ellis, senior vice president of the wealth management group at Celent, a Boston-based financial research and consulting firm.    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/wall-st-capitulation-marks-end-of-an-era-939141.html?service=Print

"This is a major realignment on Wall Street and we are going back to the days of the merchant banking of the 1800s," said Bob Ellis, senior vice president of the wealth management group at Celent, a Boston-based financial research and consulting firm.    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/wall-st-capitulation-marks-end-of-an-era-939141.html

Sunday, September 21, 2008

New paradigm for finance

"A generation grew up that has been very well trained in this new finance theory, very well educated to apply it on a broad scale with the necessary computing power, and off we went," Mayer said.

Recent events, he said, have shown that the basic assumptions that have held sway for a generation or two no longer hold. "This will leave us with a different paradigm," he added. "If I could give it to you, I'd win the Nobel Prize."

http://www.iht.com/articles/2008/09/19/business/crisis.php?page=2

http://seekingalpha.com/article/96519-what-700-billion-could-buy

"And I'm furious when I see the pictures of Americans who thought they were on the sunny side of life and now have lost their homes and have to live in their cars," Evers said. "I definitely do not feel sorry for the bankers who lost their jobs in the last couple of days. I can't believe that a country like the U.S.A. could have been so careless on a money issue!"

"I was taught that the U.S.A. is the motherland of moneymaking," she added. "And now all I can see is a herd of headless chickens running around on Wall Street." http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-euromood20-2008sep20,0,7535469.story

Roubini personally moves funds out of USD

ALERT

With the current economic and financial turbulence, Roubini Global Economics is providing additional extended analysis of ongoing and breaking events.

Click here to receive full access for a limited time.

http://www.rgemonitor.com/financemarkets-monitor/253652/the_unitary_federal_reserve_-_crisis_choreography

Sept. 20 (Bloomberg) -- The Bush administration asked Congress for unchecked power to buy $700 billion in bad mortgage investments from U.S. financial companies in what would be an unprecedented government intrusion into the markets.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a1hr1v2FUeAg&refer=home

Saturday, September 20, 2008

Government bailout

On Monday night, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid was briefed on the gravity of the situation in a secret meeting with the Treasury Secretary and Federal Reserve Chairman. Reid's remarks are the best summary yet of the events of the last 14 months. He said, ""We are in new territory, this is a different game...No one knows what to do." http://www.counterpunch.org/whitney09192008.html

Money Market victims bury cash near sewers

Putnam, Mellon Spur `Oh, My God' Money-Market Flight (Update2)

By Michael Janofsky

Sept. 19 (Bloomberg) -- Before yesterday, Sheila Bialka, a retired dance and drama teacher in Laguna Woods, California, said she hadn't thought about shifting money out of her money-market account.

Then she learned that Boston-based Putnam Investments LLC closed its $12.3 billion institutional Putnam Prime Money Market Fund and a similar fund run by Bank of New York Mellon Corp. had fallen to less than $1 a share. BNY Mellon's shares fell as much as 36 percent yesterday, then mostly recovered amid a broad market rally and gained as much as 36 percent today.

``Oh, my God,'' said Bialka, 74, whose money is with Fidelity Investments. ``Now I think I will move it. I wasn't concerned before. Now, I am.''

Advisers say larger companies, such as Boston-based Fidelity, have more resources to prop up their money-market funds. Still, fears over potential losses in the low-risk investment accounts have become the latest source of angst for investors as they adjust their portfolios and lifestyles to the tremors of Wall Street.

Investors pulled a record $89.2 billion from money-market funds on Sept. 17, according to data compiled by the Money Fund Report, a newsletter based in Westborough, Massachusetts. The withdrawals totaled a decline of 2.6 percent in money-market assets.

The redemptions countered a trend in which assets in money- market funds increase almost 14 percent, to $3.58 trillion, from January to the beginning of September, according to IMoneyNet Inc., the research firm that publishes the Money Fund Report.

First in 14 Years

U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said the government would take ``hundreds of billions'' of troubled assets from banks to try to repair the worst credit crisis since the 1930s. In addition, the U.S. Treasury said today that it would use as much as $50 billion from the government's Exchange Stabilization Fund to temporarily protect investors from money-market fund losses.

``Your typical day doesn't include outflows,'' said Peter Crane, president of Crane Data LLC, which tracks money-market funds.

This week, shareholders pulled more than 60 percent of the assets from Reserve Primary Fund, which on Wednesday became the first money-market fund in 14 years to expose investors to losses.

Financial advisers around the country said they are fielding more calls from clients buffeted by events including the failure of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. and the sale of Merrill Lynch & Co. to Bank of America Corp. Now, brokers, say, clients are worried about their funds in money-market accounts, traditional safe havens.

Rattled Nerves

``People are asking if their cash is safe,'' said Cary Carbonaro, president and founder of Family Financial Research, an advisory service based in Huntington, New York and Clermont, Florida. ``I've been telling them yes, but they're still scared. It's bad out there. Really bad.''

Investors have already started withdrawing funds from money markets in the Phoenix area, said Rich Kerr, branch manager of the Charles Schwab Corp. office in Chandler, Arizona. The experience of Reserve Primary, he said, ``has stimulated a greater degree of conversation.''

Though stocks rallied the most in six years Thursday as the Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped 617 points from its low of the day, investors remained jittery over the recent volatility.

Marci Fenske, an air resources technician for the state of California, said she overheard a woman in a restaurant tell her friends that she redeemed all her assets and buried the money in her backyard.

`Walk the Cat'

Carl Mueller, 48, an actor in Los Angeles, said he has begun shopping at a 99-cent store to save money. Chris Calle, 27, a project manager for a concrete company in Dallas, said he has started buying off-label goods at the grocery store.

Ruth May, 75, a retired travel agent in Laguna Woods, said whenever she feels panicky, she calls her financial adviser.

``He tells me to calm down and take a walk with the cat,'' she said.

Mark Berg, president of Timothy Financial Counsel, Inc. in Wheaton, Illinois, said one of his customers, a single mother, decided to trade houses for vacations rather than spend on a traditional getaway.

``People are beginning to be a little more creative in how to moderate the way they live,'' Berg said. ``So, her vacation is essentially free.''

Carbonaro said, ``The biggest question I hear from my clients is, `Should we liquidate everything?''' She said she has been so shaken by recent events on Wall Street that she wakes up in the middle of the night to check foreign markets.

``This is way more than anyone expected,'' she said. ``It's incredibly taxing, psychologically and emotionally.''

Changing Their Lifestyles

Bialka said she has already altered her routines to accommodate the worsening economy. She said she cooks at home more, rather than go to restaurants, and worries that any future bad news might require bigger changes.

``Next thing, I'll have to stop going to the theater and wearing the latest styles,'' she said. ``I might have to start shopping at thrift shops.''

Fenske, 64, said she was sitting alone at Carol's Restaurant in West Sacramento, California, when a group of elderly women at a nearby table were discussing how much money they had been losing in the financial markets.

She said she heard one woman, whom she didn't know, complain that she ``can't take any more hits'' and told her friends, ``I turned everything I had into cash, put it in a lock box and buried it under the shed near the sewer line.''

``I was horrified that somebody else might have heard her,'' Fenske said. ``The placed was crammed. I told her to go home and move it.''

To contact the reporter on this story: Michael Janofsky in Los Angeles at mjanofsky@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: September 19, 2008 12:20 EDT

Tuesday, September 16, 2008

The Markit CDX North America Investment Grade Index climbs 25 basis points

The Markit CDX North America Investment Grade Index, which rises as confidence in companies deteriorates, climbed 25 basis points to a record 220 at 7:50 a.m. in New York, according to broker Phoenix Partners Group. http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=ad5I2uMlzN7o&refer=home

"It's banana republic financing," Lockyer said. The spending plan relies on "phony money and phony estimates." http://blogs.usatoday.com/ondeadline/2008/09/schwarzenegger.html

Fed to give AIG $85 billion loan and take 80% stake

Fed to give AIG $85 billion loan and take 80% stake

By Michael J. De La Merced and Eric Dash

Wednesday, September 17, 2008

In an extraordinary turn, the Federal Reserve agreed Tuesday night to take a nearly 80 percent stake in the troubled giant insurance company, the American International Group, in exchange for an $85 billion loan.    http://www.iht.com/bin/printfriendly.php?id=16217125

The Fed, apparently unable to convince private-sector companies to provide the cash, did the deal itself. That raises the question of whether the financial-services industry really felt that AIG's demise would have been catastrophic. The only alternative explanation would be that Wall Street won a game of chicken with the Fed... http://www.forbes.com/markets/2008/09/16/aig-fed-bailout-markets-equity-cx_mm_0916markets50.html

With time potentially running out due to credit rating downgrades that have threatened AIG's ability to operate, it reportedly reached a deal with the Federal Reserve, gaining an $85 billion bridge loan in return for going into conservatorship, with the Fed taking an 80% stake in the insurer. http://www.forbes.com/2008/09/16/briefing-outlook-aig-markets-equity-cx_ss_0916markets48_print.html