http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2008/05/02/BABT10F7PE.DTL&tsp=1 Salmon fishing was banned along the West Coast for the first time in 160 years Thursday, a decision that is expected to have a devastating economic impact on fishermen, dozens of businesses, tourism and boating.
Friday, May 2, 2008
Thursday, May 1, 2008
Gold 850 – Mobius sees commodity boom continuing
http://www.zealllc.com/2008/glogold4.htm
http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=080430191254.lghbtwt2&show_article=1 Three Chinese banks in world's top four: study
Recent gold headlines from Kitco…
- Major May Day Meltdown - by Jon Nadler , May 1 2008 2:13PM Kitco Precious Metals and Economic Reivew - Historical Data Reveal Trends and Expectations - by Wendy Lynn Ip , Apr 28 2008 9:45AM Taking A Break - by Brien Lundin , Apr 30 2008 11:25AM The Ongoing Bull Market - by Mary Anne & Pamela Aden , Apr 28 2008 4:18PM Inflation Fears & Food Shortages - by James Turk , Apr 28 2008 11:00AM
Wednesday, April 30, 2008
Friday, April 25, 2008
Oil spikes on supply worries and Iran warning shot
Oil shortage in UK ahead of strike: 'Stations running dry'...
STUDY: Oil prices to double in next 4 years...
Oil Rises More Than $2 on BP Plan to Close U.K. Pipeline, Nigerian Output
Forex links…
www.openforexaccount.com – Open forex account with Elite E Services
Food Crisis spreads to US – Costco, Sams limit rice purchases
WSJ COLUMN: 'Time for Americans to start stockpiling food'...
HOLD THE RICE...
WAL-MART unit limits purchases...
COSTCO similar move...
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aU9xHQxBs1wU&refer=home Microsoft Demise! April 24 (Bloomberg) -- Microsoft Corp. declined 5 percent in extended trading after it reported an 11 percent drop in third-quarter profit and forecast earnings that may miss analysts' estimates as Windows software sales fell.
Net income dropped to $4.39 billion, or 47 cents a share, from $4.93 billion, or 50 cents, a year ago. Revenue was little changed at $14.5 billion, matching analysts' estimates and disappointing investors looking for more after industry reports showed better-than-expected demand for personal computers.
The world's biggest software maker said sales of Windows for PCs sank 24 percent and revenue from its online advertising unit came in at the low end of its projections. Microsoft's report contrasted with positive comments from chipmaker Intel Corp. and computer company International Business Machines Corp.
Wednesday, April 23, 2008
Tuesday, April 22, 2008
Euro breaks 1.60
Euro hits record high of over $1.60...
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aBTUUAwp9X1M&refer=home ``The ECB is certainly not easing in the near term,'' said Adam Boyton, a senior foreign-exchange strategist in New York at Deutsche Bank AG, the biggest currency trader. ``The euro-dollar will reach $1.65 in the next three to six months.''
Feed your mind http://www.wired.com/special_multimedia/2008/gs_03feedyourmind
Monday, April 21, 2008
Food Rationing at Costco while Rice explodes
http://nysun.com/news/food-rationing-confronts-breadbasket-world Many parts of America, long considered the breadbasket of the world, are now confronting a once unthinkable phenomenon: food rationing.
Sunday, April 20, 2008
Thursday, April 17, 2008
Tuesday, April 15, 2008
Food Prices soar most in 17 years while retail chains go under
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/15/business/15retail.html?_r=1&hp&oref=slogin
Retailing Chains Caught in a Wave of Bankruptcies
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080414/inflation_squeeze.html?.v=4 Food Costs Rising at Fast Clip, Squeezing Poor, Forcing Food Vendors to Explain Higher Prices
Sunday, April 13, 2008
USD gaps up, EUR/USD down 200 pips on G7 fears
Saxo Bank - 7:27 PM
FX: Over the weekend, the G7 meeting resulted in a statement, which included the following sentence: "sharp fluctuations in major currencies' could have implications for economic and financial stability." This is a tightening of the laissez faire stance from the prior G7 meeting (Feb, Tokyo), but it is still not really convincing.
7:27 PM
FX: US Secretary of the Treasury, Paulson, has been stating afterwards that he "reiterated in very strong terms our commitment to a strong dollar". With the Fed cutting aggressively and the last reading on the monthly budget statement at nose-bleed low levels, it is hard to see that he and the rest of the administration are backing these words by actions.
7:28 PM
FX: The only reason for the USD to go higher is that the negative expectations for US data could be too far ahead of the real data releases. We have seen signs of such a situation lately, and strong forces are working to introduce a larger role for goverment and semi-goverment institutions in the market place to alleviate the volatility and the credit crunch.
7:28 PM
FX: G7 might be an obvious candidate for this and the threat of concerted intervention might keep the USD supported for a couple of days.
8:20 PM
FX: G7 announced worries for the too fast depreciating USD and its contributuion to global inflation. This leading to lower consumer spending and complicating policy decisions for centraL bankers who might other wise lower interest rate further to avert continuing economic downturn. The tougher talks on fx
8:20 PM
FX: (continued) markets over the weekend led to speculations on whether world leaders were planing direct intervention in the currency markets to prevents further USD decline. EURUSD opened 1.5 figures lower on back of these developments. Bids at 1.5630 and 1.5600. Offers at 1.5715 and 1.5745.
In other news…
Saturday, April 12, 2008
GE sell off sparks larger fears while G7 debates currency intervention
``We believe the miss and cut to guidance raises credibility concerns for GE over the near-term, given that CEO Jeff Immelt had expressed confidence and reaffirmed guidance and operating targets on his March 13 retail webcast,'' New York-based Goldman analyst Deane Dray wrote in a research report today. ``This implies that the back half of March deteriorated significantly, which is especially unnerving.''... http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=abWAFU294qKY&refer=home
U.S. Stocks Slide After GE Cuts Its Forecast; Investor Says He's `Shocked'.... ``It's shocking in the sense that somebody at GE should have said something earlier,'' Stanley Nabi, who helps manage about $8.5 billion at Silvercrest Asset Management Group in New York, said in an interview with Bloomberg Television. ``There has been a very strong feeling in Wall Street among all analysts who follow GE that earnings would be respectable.''... ``You're shocked,'' Benjamin Pace, who helps oversee about $60 billion as chief investment officer at Deutsche Bank Private Wealth Management in New York, said in an interview with Bloomberg Television. ``They're saying, just like the rest of the financial services industry, `We took the hit as well.' We're still cautious about the U.S. market.''... http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=abVFVmSU6Fcw&refer=home
G7 update:
- G7 ministers and central bankers "The turmoil in global financial markets remains entrenched and more protracted than we had anticipated"
- G7 endorses recommendations of Financial Stability Forum (FSF) including disclosure of remaining exposure, liquidity risk management revisions, improved accounting standards for off-balance-sheet units within 100 days. New capital requirements to be phased in gradually. Welcomes any monetary and fiscal policy that support underlying economic activity and ensure price stability.
- FSF report suggests creation of a "college of supervisors" to oversee each of the largest global financial institutions, and improved infrastructure for the over-the-counter derivatives market
- Luigi Spaventa: Central banks intervening directly in the RMBS market is not necessary. Instead issue government-backed Brady bond-like securities at a discount in exchange for toxic waste on banks' balance sheets.
- Guha (FT): no plans for co-ordinated intervention in markets at G7 meeting. Unofficial ideas floated at previous FSF meeting included radical strategies to fight the credit crisis including temporary suspension of capital requirements, taxpayer-funded recapitalizations of banks and outright public purchase of mortgage-backed securities.
- Bernanke, Paulson: To do: regulators and industry should focus on raising enough capital and manage liquidity in order to deleverage without cutting back lending. Focus not on new regulation but better self-regulation in line with industry demands (see IIF letter)
- BIS background paper about Credit Risk Transfer, including the numbers.
- Senior Supervisors Group: review of risk management practices that worked and those that didn't in wake of turmoil.
- Banque de France: liquidity risk management state of the art.
- IMF: Global Financial Stability Report points to spreading credit crisis with credit losses up to $1 trillion from currently $230bn.
Thursday, April 10, 2008
50 Trading Rules
50 trading rules from Matthew Bradbard
1. Use money you can afford to lose - always trade with risk capital
2. Know yourself - be disciplined, always controlling your emotions
3. Start small - do not over commit until you learn the mechanics
4. Don't over commit - always keep excess margin in your account
5. Isolate your trading from your desire for profit - try to eliminate "hope" from your trading plan
6. Don't form new opinions during trading hours - do not let day to day fluctuations change your overall plan
7. Take a trading break - trading everyday may cloud your judgment
8. Don't follow the crowd - if everyone is leaning one way it is most likely the wrong way
9. Block out other opinions - do not be influenced by others once you form an opinion
10. When you're not sure, stand aside - it is ok to be in cash and not in the market
11. Try to avoid market orders - always using market orders to buy and sell shows a lack of discipline
12. Trade the most active option month - look for where the open interest and liquidity exists
13. Trade divergence between related commodities - large divergences within the same sector generally present an opportunity
14. Don't trade too many commodities at once - following several markets at once is difficult and usually costly
15. Trade the opening range breakout - breaking out of the opening range generally sets the tone for the direction of the coming move
16. Trade the breakout of the previous day's range - this helps getting in and out of positions
17. Trade the breakout of the weekly range - again like the daily breakouts use breakouts as buy and sell signals
18. Trade the breakout of the monthly range - the longer time frame the more market momentum behind your trading decision
19. Build a trading pyramid - when adding to a position add fewer contracts than your base commitment
20. Never put your entire position on at one price - let the market prove you are right
21. Never add to a losing position - adding to a loser only adds to a mistake
22. Cut your losses short - admit when you are wrong, it is a part of trading
23. Let profits run - do not get out for the sake of taking a profit, have a legitimate reason why you are closing a position
24. Be impatient with losing positions - never carry a losing position for more than 2-3 days and never over a weekend
25. Learn to like losses - they are a part of the business so accept it
26. Use stops orders cautiously - place or at least know where your stop is when you enter the market
27. Get out before contract maturity - do not stay in during delivery because increased volatility
28. Ignore normal seasonal tendencies - too many people are aware/ remember you are looking for an edge
29. Trade the divergence from normal - trade against what is expected by most
30. Avoid picking tops and bottoms - do not buck the trend
31. Buy bullish news, sell the fact - buy the rumor and sell the fact (playing reports)
32. Bull markets die of overweight - pay attention to bearish news when bull markets look top heavy
33. Look for the good odds - look for trades that have a favorable risk/reward dynamic
34. Always take windfall profits - take quick profits and run
35. Learn to sell short - markets often fall faster than they rise
36. Act promptly - futures are not for procrastinators
37. Don't reverse your position - do not make a 180-degree turn on losers
38. Don't be a nickel and dimer - trying to squeeze that little extra out of the market can be costly
39. Know the price trend - use charts to identify trends
40. Watch for key breakouts through trend lines - use trend lines to determine breakout points and to help with order placement
41. Watch for 50% retracements of a major move - markets have tendency to retrace 50%
42. Use the half way rule when picking buy-sell spots - inside of a price channel sell the upper half and buy the lower half
43. Watch the magnitude of market change - smaller bars on charts can be early indicators of a trend reversal
44. Congestion areas mean support or resistance - when price movement slows there is indecision
45. Major moves frequently climax with a key reversal - a significant high or low can be made on trend reversals
46. Watch for head and shoulder formations - this pattern is very accurate on changes in trend
47. Watch for "M" tops and "W" bottoms - recognize these patterns they are useful and happen often
48. Trade triple tops and bottoms - incorporate this into your trading arsenal as triple tops and bottoms generally serve as solid support and resistance levels
49. Watch volume for price clues - volume up and price up buying confirmation, volume up and price down selling signal, volume decreases look to stand aside
50. Open interest may be a tip off - use open interest increases and decreases much like volume as buying and selling signals
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